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交银国际:维持顺丰同城(09699)“买入”评级 升目标价至15.4港元
智通财经网· 2025-09-10 01:39
智通财经APP获悉,交银国际发布研报称,顺丰同城(09699)仍是外卖补贴战的受益方之一,在未来补贴 回归理性,业务空间仍大,考虑到长期其与顺丰的业务协同持续加深,无人车配送规模化落地持续降低 成本,该行维持公司买入评级,该行将估值滚动至2026年,对应0.5倍市销率,上调目标价至15.4港元。 2025H1公司收入102亿元(人民币,下同),同比增49%,高于该行预期16%,其中同城/最后一公里配送 业务分别增43%/57%,超预期得益于餐饮外卖和即时零售行业快速增长带来配送需求增加。毛利率 6.7%,同比基本保持平稳。调整后净利润同比增139%至1.6亿元,对应净利率1.6%,同比提升约0.6个百 分点。基于显著好于预期的上半年收入增速,以及3季度环比加速提升的即时配送业务需求,该行上调 顺丰同城2025-27年收入14%/12%/12%,至220亿-304亿元,同比增速40%/20%/15%,同时受到公司单量 密度提升、优质的骑手管理能力,以及AI加持下,运营费率的持续优化,该行上调2025-27年利润预测 26%/23%/27%,至3.4亿-7.6亿元,Non-IFRS净利润率分别1.5%/2%/2. ...
交银国际:8月新能源车渗透率升至55.2% 预计9月车市增长平稳
智通财经网· 2025-09-09 09:00
智通财经APP获悉,交银国际发布研报称,3Q-4Q25多款新车待上市,包括理想i6、蔚来ES8、问界M7 等,将进一步丰富市场供给。随着"金九银十"传统销售旺季临近,各家车企陆续推出优惠政策,该行看 好9月车市销售;但考虑到去年9月在以旧换新助力下车市逐步恢复,高基数下该行预计今年9月车市增长 平稳。建议关注:小鹏汽车(09868/XPEV.US/买入)全新P7/增程车型陆续上市,带动销量和毛利率提升; 吉利汽车(00175/买入)私有化极氪后推动内部资源整合;赛力斯(601127.SH/买入)问界系列进一步拓展高 端市场并提升盈利水平。 交银国际主要观点如下: 今年以来,新能源乘用车延续增势,2025年1-8月新能源车渗透率达51%;其中,8月新能源车零售销量 110.1万辆(同/环比+7.5%/+11.6%),新能源渗透率55.2%,同/环比+1.5 ppts/+1.1ppts,达到年内新高。分 品牌来看,8月自主品牌新能源渗透率高达76%,市场份额70%;豪华/合资品牌的渗透率分别为 32%/6.6%。其中,特斯拉份额5.2%,同比+1.0 ppts;新势力整体份额同比+4.7 ppts至20.8%。 ...
交银国际:维持康方生物“买入”评级 目标价183港元
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-09 08:28
交银国际发布研报称,维持康方生物(09926)"买入"评级,目标价183港元。目前为止,尚无获批药物在 该适应症中取得具有统计学显著的OS获益,该行认为依沃西取得小于0.8的HR及明显分离的曲线实属不 易。不论HARMONi获批与否,最新数据已再次彰显依沃西成长为下一代I/O基石产品的潜力。该行维 持依沃西经PoS调整海外峰值销售165亿美元的预测。 交银国际主要观点如下: HARMONi海外获批不确定性减小但尚存,关注后续大适应症 该行认为,本次数据相比上次有改善趋势,美国获批可能性有所提升。但同时,该行认为需要持续关注 以下数据的变化趋势及对FDA决策的潜在影响:1)北美/整体西方人群长期随访后均观察到治疗组的OS 获益优势(HR分别为0.70/0.84),但暂未达到统计学显著;2)北美+欧洲人群长期随访PFSHR为 0.67(95%CI0.45-1.00),已具有临床意义,但与亚洲人群的0.55(95%CI0.43-0.71)略有差距,该行建议后 续持续关注。其他重点适应症的海外临床进展也值得继续关注,包括:1)HARMONi-3(头对头K药+化 疗治疗1LNSCLC)和HARMONi-7(单药头对头K ...
交银国际:维持康方生物(09926)“买入”评级 目标价183港元
智通财经网· 2025-09-09 08:25
智通财经APP获悉,交银国际发布研报称,维持康方生物(09926)"买入"评级,目标价183港元。目前为 止,尚无获批药物在该适应症中取得具有统计学显著的OS获益,该行认为依沃西取得小于0.8的HR及明 显分离的曲线实属不易。不论HARMONi获批与否,最新数据已再次彰显依沃西成长为下一代I/O基石 产品的潜力。该行维持依沃西经PoS调整海外峰值销售165亿美元的预测。 交银国际主要观点如下: HARMONi研究最新OS数据呈改善趋势 依沃西单抗的全球III期HARMONi研究(二线EGFR)最新数据在WCLC大会上公布:1)长期随访后, OSHR改善至0.78(95% CI:0.62-0.98),名义P值=0.0332(此前5月公布OSHR0.79,95% CI:0.62-1.01, P=0.057)。北美人群的生存获益数据突出,mOS:NR vs.14.0个月,HR=0.70。2)长期随访的PFSHR为 0.57,与5月公布的0.52基本一致,整体曲线也呈现相似趋势。3)PD-L1<1%与PDL1≥1%受试者中的生存 获益相近(PFSHR:0.62 vs.0.55),几乎所有亚组的PFS均达到统计学显著。 ...
国证国际、交银国际给予汇通达网络(9878.HK)“买入”评级、目标价 21 元以上
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-08 08:01
近期,交银国际、国证国际等就汇通达网络(9878.HK)中期业绩发布最新研报表示—— 2025上半年,汇通达主动优化低毛利业务,大力发展"反向+短链+数字化"智慧供应链与人工智能。实 现供应链能力升级、AI+产品落地并快速进入商品化阶段,毛利率、净利率及归母净利率均创历史最 佳,战略转型成效初步显现,并由此分别给予22.1港元、21港元的买入评级。 国证国际研报认为,自2024年下半年战略转型以来,汇通达智慧供应链能力稳步增强;AI+SaaS商业化破 局、打开增长新空间;回购与申请H股全流通的动作,也将有利于市场流通性的显著提升。 而在交银国际看来,汇通达供应链升级的效果直接在多项财务指标上得以反馈和呈现:会员零售门店收 入占比、毛利率、净利率、归母净利润均显著提升。汇通达自有品牌商品的规模收入,以及围绕新品 类、新渠道、跨境出海的业务收入,同样取得显著成果。 汇通达在原有SaaS产品基础上集成AI Agent功能,大幅降低企业自身和上下游客户的运营成本,上半年 AI相关收入占服务总收入(超3亿元人民币)的20%。 此外,包括中信证券、国金证券在内的多家机构也从汇通达中期业绩及近期动作中重点关注到公司与阿 里 ...
大行评级丨国证国际、交银国际:汇通达网络AI+进入商品化、盈利质效双提升,给予“买入”评级
Ge Long Hui· 2025-09-08 03:32
Core Viewpoint - The recent reports from various institutions highlight the positive impact of HuTongDa's strategic transformation and AI integration on its financial performance, leading to historical highs in profitability metrics and a favorable outlook for future growth [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, HuTongDa actively optimized low-margin businesses and significantly developed its "reverse + short chain + digital" smart supply chain and AI capabilities, resulting in record highs for gross margin, net margin, and net profit attributable to shareholders [1]. - The proportion of revenue from member retail stores, gross margin, net margin, and net profit attributable to shareholders have all shown significant improvement due to the supply chain upgrade [1]. - AI-related revenue accounted for 20% of total service revenue (over 300 million RMB) in the first half of the year, indicating a successful commercialization of AI capabilities [2]. Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - Since the strategic transformation began in the second half of 2024, HuTongDa's smart supply chain capabilities have steadily improved, with AI + SaaS commercialization opening new growth avenues [1][2]. - The collaboration with Alibaba Cloud for "full-stack AI comprehensive cooperation" is expected to enhance digital competitiveness in lower-tier markets, supported by Alibaba's strategic focus on "technology + big consumption" [2]. - Institutions have maintained buy ratings for HuTongDa, with target prices above 21 HKD, considering the company's plans for share buybacks and H-share full circulation to enhance market liquidity [2].
交银国际:上调蔚来-SW(09866)目标价至62.7港元 维持“买入”评级
智通财经网· 2025-09-04 05:52
Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International raises the target price for NIO-SW (09866) to HKD 62.7 while maintaining a "Buy" rating, reflecting optimism about the company's future performance [1] Financial Performance - NIO's revenue for Q2 2025 is projected to be approximately RMB 19.01 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 57.9%, with automotive revenue around RMB 16.3 billion, aligning with market expectations [1] - For Q3, the company is optimistic, expecting deliveries between 87,000 to 91,000 units and revenue between RMB 21.8 billion to RMB 22.9 billion, which would set a new historical high, primarily driven by the launch of the new L90 model [1] Future Outlook - For Q4, NIO aims to achieve combined monthly sales of approximately 50,000 units with Ladao, and expects gross margin to improve to 17%–18% [1] - The sales forecast for NIO in 2025 has been raised to 340,000 units, with revenue adjusted upwards by 17.5% to RMB 99.5 billion, reflecting strong sales expectations for the L90 and ES8 models [1] Market Sentiment - The rebound in sales is expected to boost market confidence, which is beneficial for future new car launches and subsequent financing efforts [1]
交银国际:上调蔚来-SW目标价至62.7港元 维持“买入”评级
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-04 05:49
Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International raises the target price for NIO-SW (09866) to HKD 62.7, maintaining a "Buy" rating, reflecting optimism about the company's future performance [1] Financial Performance - NIO's revenue for Q2 2025 is projected to be approximately RMB 19.01 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 57.9%, with automotive revenue around RMB 16.3 billion, aligning with market expectations [1] - For Q3, the company is optimistic, expecting deliveries between 87,000 to 91,000 units and revenue between RMB 21.8 billion to RMB 22.9 billion, which would set a historical record, primarily driven by the new L90 model [1] Future Outlook - For Q4, NIO aims to achieve combined monthly sales of approximately 50,000 units with Lido, with a targeted gross margin improvement to 17%-18% [1] - The sales forecast for NIO in 2025 has been raised to 340,000 units, with revenue adjusted upwards by 17.5% to RMB 99.5 billion, reflecting strong sales expectations for the L90 and ES8 models [1] Market Sentiment - The increase in sales is expected to boost market confidence, which is beneficial for future vehicle launches and subsequent financing [1]
交银国际:8月多家新能源车企销量创新高 看好9月车市销量表现
智通财经网· 2025-09-03 07:44
Core Insights - The report from CMB International highlights the upcoming launch of several new electric vehicle models in Q3-Q4 2025, including Li Auto i6, NIO ES8, and AITO M7, which will enhance market supply [1] - The traditional sales peak season, "Golden September and Silver October," is approaching, prompting various automakers to introduce promotional policies, leading to an optimistic outlook for September's electric vehicle sales [1] - The report expresses a positive view on companies like XPeng Motors, Geely Auto, and Seres, anticipating sales and gross margin improvements due to new model launches and strategic resource integration [1] Industry Performance - In August, the sales of new energy vehicles continued to grow, with NIO, XPeng, and Leap Motor achieving record monthly sales. Eleven automakers reported a year-on-year and month-on-month sales increase of approximately 13.4% and 7.4%, respectively [2] - BYD, as the industry leader, sold 371,501 passenger vehicles in August, remaining stable year-on-year. Notably, BYD's exports reached 80,464 units, marking a 146% increase year-on-year, with overseas sales accounting for 22% of total sales [2] - NIO delivered 31,305 vehicles in August, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 55.2% and a month-on-month increase of 49.0%, setting a new historical high [2] - XPeng Motors achieved deliveries of 37,709 vehicles in August, a year-on-year increase of 169% and a month-on-month increase of 3%, also reaching a historical high [3] - Leap Motor delivered 57,066 vehicles in August, with a year-on-year increase of 88% and a month-on-month increase of 14%, marking another record [3] - Ideal Auto delivered 28,529 vehicles in August, showing a decline of 41% year-on-year and 7% month-on-month, but plans to accelerate the launch of high-pressure pure electric products in the second half of the year [3] - Xiaomi Auto maintained deliveries above 30,000 units in August, following a record high in July [4] - Avita delivered 10,565 vehicles in August, with a year-on-year increase of 185% and a month-on-month increase of 5% [5] - Zeekr brand delivered 17,626 vehicles in August, with a month-on-month increase of 3.8% [6]
交银国际:升置富产业信托(00778)目标价至5.92港元 料组合维持平稳、降息有助提升估值
智通财经网· 2025-09-02 08:59
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the retail market in Hong Kong may require time to stabilize, leading to a slight downward adjustment in the revenue and distribution forecasts for Prosperity REIT (00778) for 2025 and 2026 [1] - The improvement in stock and real estate performance is expected to create a wealth effect, which may help stabilize the market in the medium to long term, with a projected annual growth of approximately 2% to 3% in distributions for 2026 and 2027 [1] - The potential inclusion in the Stock Connect program is identified as a key catalyst for the next 12 months, with the impact of interest rate cuts expected to outweigh the anticipated changes in rental adjustments [1] Group 2 - The report indicates that Prosperity REIT's retail portfolio, primarily focused on essential consumption, remains resilient and is expected to maintain a high occupancy rate [1] - Recent fluctuations in HIBOR have led to a decline in stock prices, but a forecasted interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September or by the end of the year is anticipated to support a recovery in the company's stock price [1] - The target price for Prosperity REIT has been slightly raised to HKD 5.92, while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]