Core Viewpoint - The securities sector is experiencing a significant rise, driven by major asset restructuring announcements from key firms, indicating a trend towards consolidation in the industry [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On November 20, the securities sector opened strongly, with the broker ETF (159842) surging by 1.64% and trading volume quickly surpassing 50 million yuan [1]. - The broker ETF tracks the CSI All Share Securities Company Index, which includes up to 50 securities companies to reflect the overall performance of the sector [1]. Group 2: Major Announcements - On November 19, China International Capital Corporation (CICC), Dongxing Securities, and Xinda Securities announced a suspension of trading due to plans for significant asset restructuring [1]. - The restructuring involves CICC issuing A-shares to the shareholders of Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities in a share swap to facilitate their merger [1]. Group 3: Industry Insights - Dongwu Securities noted that resource integration within the industry could be a crucial method for brokers to enhance scale and comprehensive strength [1]. - Large brokers may use mergers to address weaknesses and consolidate advantages, while smaller brokers could achieve rapid growth through external mergers, realizing scale effects and business complementarity [1]. Group 4: Fund Flows and Market Dynamics - Ping An Securities reported that in the third quarter, public funds significantly increased their holdings in non-bank financials by 2.73 billion shares, contributing to the sector's rise [2]. - Conversely, foreign investors reduced their holdings in the same period by 2.04 billion shares, second only to the banking sector [2]. - The inflow of funds into securities ETFs indicates a preference for the broker sector among certain investors [2]. Group 5: Future Outlook - CITIC Securities highlighted that the current value proposition for the securities industry is supported by policies, funding, and internal transformation [2]. - Policy initiatives aimed at activating capital markets, such as deepening the registration system and optimizing trading mechanisms, are expanding business opportunities for brokers [2]. - Improved market confidence is expected to boost trading volumes and margin financing, while new capital from pensions and insurance is anticipated to enter the market, providing a solid foundation for broker performance [2]. - The industry is focusing on developing high-value-added services, particularly in wealth management and institutional business, to enhance revenue stability and profitability [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The performance of NVIDIA is expected to drive a rebound in technology stocks, and the market may rebound due to the influence of US stocks and brokerage mergers [18][23]. - The risk appetite in the bond market has recovered, and the bond market remains weakly stable, but caution is needed regarding potential short - term trading opportunities [24][25]. - For various commodities, different trends are presented. For example, protein meal prices are gradually falling due to supply pressure, while sugar prices are expected to be range - bound both internationally and domestically [28][35]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: NVIDIA's strong performance may drive a rebound in technology stocks. The market showed support on Wednesday, with significant sector differentiation. The strategy is to go long on dips in the short - term, conduct IM/IC 2512 long + ETF short cash - and - carry arbitrage, and use bull spreads on dips [18][21][23]. - **Treasury Futures**: The risk appetite has recovered, and the bond market is weakly stable. The strategy is to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, take profit on previous (TL - 3T) positions, and try to go long on the T - contract current - quarter to next - quarter inter - delivery spread [24][25][27]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Supply pressure is evident, and the price is gradually falling. In the US, soybean export sales are expected to be within a certain range, and Brazil's soybean production is expected to be high. The domestic supply pressure is large, and the price is expected to be supported, while rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate [28][29][30]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are oscillating lower, and domestic sugar prices are oscillating. Globally, there will be a supply surplus in the 2025/26 season. In the short - term, international sugar prices may oscillate slightly stronger, and domestic sugar prices are expected to be range - bound. The strategy is to go long on dips for single - side trading, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money put options [31][34][35]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The oscillating market continues. External factors have led to short - term price fluctuations, and different oils have different supply - demand situations. The strategy is to go long on dips or conduct high - selling and low - buying band operations for single - side trading, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [36][37][39]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: Spot prices are starting to correct, and the futures price is falling. The US corn futures are expected to be strongly oscillating in the short - term, while domestic corn prices in the Northeast are falling, and those in the North China are relatively strong. The strategy is to go long on dips for the outer - market December corn, short on rallies for the January corn, wait for corrections for the May and July corn, and conduct spread - narrowing operations for the January corn - starch spread [40][41][43]. - **Hogs**: The slaughter pressure persists, and the spot price is oscillating. The overall supply pressure remains, and the strategy is to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, arbitrage, and sell wide - straddle strategies for options [44][45][46]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is weak, and peanuts are oscillating at the bottom in the short - term. The price is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and quality. The strategy is to short on rallies for the January peanuts, go long on dips for the May peanuts with a stop - loss at 7800, conduct 1 - 5 peanut reverse spreads, and sell pk601 - P - 7600 options [46][47][48]. - **Eggs**: Demand is average, and egg prices are stable with a slight decline. The supply pressure is gradually easing, but the upside space is limited. The strategy is to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options [49][50][52]. - **Apples**: Demand is average, and fruit prices are mainly stable. The cold - storage inventory is lower than last year, and the fundamentals are relatively strong, but it is recommended to stay on the sidelines due to recent large fluctuations [53][54][55]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The fundamental contradictions are not significant, and cotton prices are mainly oscillating. External factors and supply - demand situations at home and abroad affect the price. The strategy is to expect range - bound oscillations for US cotton and short - term oscillations for Zhengzhou cotton, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [56][57][59]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices are oscillating within a range, and there is still room to reduce hot - metal production. The industry is affected by policies, costs, and demand. The strategy is to expect a weakly oscillating downward trend for single - side trading, go long on the coil - to - rebar spread on dips, and stay on the sidelines for options [62][63][64]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Spot prices are correcting from high levels, and the futures market is weakly operating. After short - term replenishment, the market sentiment has changed. The strategy is to expect a weakly oscillating short - term trend without chasing short positions, consider going long on dips near previous lows in the medium - term, continue to hold the coking coal 1/5 reverse spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [64][65][66]. - **Iron Ore**: A bearish approach is recommended. The supply is increasing, and the domestic demand is weakening. The strategy is to expect a high - level bearish trend for single - side trading, enter a 1/5 inter - delivery high - level reverse spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [67][68][69]. - **Ferroalloys**: Supply and demand are both weak, and prices are oscillating within a cost - supported range. Different ferroalloys have different supply - demand and cost situations. The strategy is to expect bottom - oscillating trends for single - side trading, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [69][70][71]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: NVIDIA boosts market sentiment, but the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve suppresses gold and silver prices. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term. The strategy is to hold long positions cautiously near the support level of the 18th, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [72][74][76]. - **Copper**: Short - term attention should be paid to the lower support. Supply and demand and macro - factors affect the price. The strategy is to go long on dips, pay attention to the 85000 yuan/ton support level, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [76][77][80]. - **Alumina**: Substantial production cuts have not been realized, and the price is weakly operating. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and long - term contracts. The strategy is to expect a short - term weak trend until the warehouse receipts are circulated, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [80][81][83]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Overseas economic data are unexpectedly absent, and Shanghai aluminum moves with the sector. The macro - environment and supply - demand fundamentals affect the price. The strategy is to stay on the sidelines in the short - term, pay attention to the narrowing of the spread between East China and Central China in the spot market, and go long on Shanghai aluminum and short on LME aluminum to narrow the spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [83][84]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Aluminum alloy moves with the aluminum price. The macro - environment and supply - demand fundamentals affect the price. The strategy is to stay on the sidelines in the short - term, wait for the market sentiment to digest, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [85][86][87]. - **Zinc**: It shows a wide - range oscillation. Supply and demand and macro - factors affect the price. The strategy is to continue to hold profitable long positions, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [87][88][90]. - **Lead**: It oscillates within a range. Supply and demand and macro - factors affect the price. The strategy is to close profitable short positions and stay on the sidelines, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [90][91][94]. - **Nickel**: The cost is loosening, and the nickel price is oscillating downward. The oversupply of deliverable products and the macro - environment affect the price. The strategy is to short on rallies, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [94][95][96]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supply and demand are both weak, and raw materials are under pressure. The industry is affected by factors such as investment plans and carbon taxes. The strategy is to short on rallies and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [96][97][98]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Short - term partial profits can be realized, and new strategies can involve going long on dips near the support level. The price is affected by production capacity and market demand. [98]

Core Viewpoint - The integration of Central Huijin's securities companies, including China International Capital Corporation (CICC), Dongxing Securities, and Xinda Securities, is a significant move in the industry, aligning with regulatory guidance to cultivate leading investment banks and institutions [1][2] Group 1: Integration and Restructuring - CICC is planning a stock swap merger with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities, with trading of their A-shares and H-shares suspended for up to 25 trading days [1] - This merger is the first of its kind in the securities industry and is expected to enhance the market's anticipation of further consolidations within Central Huijin's securities holdings [1][2] - The merger aligns with the new regulatory framework aimed at promoting mergers and acquisitions in the securities sector, with expectations of further restructuring among other securities firms [2] Group 2: Business Synergies - The merger aims to leverage the distinct strengths of each firm: CICC's advantages in investment banking and wealth management, Dongxing's experience in asset management, and Xinda's expertise in mergers and acquisitions [2] - The integration is expected to enhance the firms' operational reach by expanding their network of branches, thus improving client access and service delivery [2] Group 3: Market Performance and Outlook - In the first three quarters of 2025, the total revenue of the securities companies in the CSI All Share Securities Index reached 428.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42%, with net profit rising by 62% to 182.5 billion yuan [3] - The securities sector is transitioning from a speculative investment to a value-oriented asset class, with a current price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.5, indicating a low valuation compared to historical levels [3] - The sector is expected to see a recovery in valuation as capital markets remain active, and institutional investors are under-allocated in this segment, suggesting potential for short-term gains and long-term investment value [3] Group 4: Related Products - The Securities ETF (512880) has attracted over 30 billion yuan in investments this year, with a total scale exceeding 60 billion yuan, leading its category [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant increase in equity allocation among insurance companies, indicating a proactive approach to the upcoming market opportunities [4] - The merger of CICC with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities is expected to enhance CICC's capital strength and market position, moving towards becoming a leading international investment bank [7] - The report emphasizes the potential for improved return on equity (ROE) post-merger, with a focus on two categories of brokers: those with strong fundamentals and low valuations, and those with potential merger opportunities [7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The non-bank financial sector is showing a positive trend, with a projected performance exceeding the overall market [2][3] Mergers and Acquisitions - CICC plans to merge with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities, with the merger expected to be completed within 25 trading days [4] - The merger will result in a significant increase in CICC's net assets, elevating its ranking in the industry [6] Financial Metrics - Post-merger, CICC's total assets and net assets are projected to reach 10096 billion and 1715 billion respectively, improving its asset-to-equity ratio and market ranking [6] - The expected price-to-book (PB) ratios for CICC, Dongxing Securities, and Xinda Securities are 1.84, 1.32, and 3.04 respectively, with a combined PB of 2.02 [5] Market Position - The merger will expand CICC's network coverage, enhancing its brokerage business and improving its market ranking from 9th to 8th [6] - The report suggests that the merger will open up new opportunities for leverage and cross-border business [6]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market saw a significant rise in brokerage stocks, with notable increases in shares such as Shouchao Securities and Dongfang Securities, following the announcement of a merger plan involving CICC, Dongxing Securities, and Xinda Securities [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Shouchao Securities experienced a rise of nearly 6%, while Dongfang Securities and Shenwan Hongyuan both increased by over 3% [1]. - Other brokerage stocks like China Galaxy, Industrial Securities, and Founder Securities saw gains exceeding 2% [1]. - The total market capitalization of Shouchao Securities is 57.7 billion, with a year-to-date decline of 3.58% [2]. Group 2: Merger Announcement - CICC announced plans to merge with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities through a share exchange, which is expected to create a new company with total assets of approximately 1,009.58 billion [1][2]. - The projected net profit attributable to the parent company after the merger is estimated at 9.52 billion, with net assets expected to reach 171.5 billion [2]. - Post-merger, the new entity will rank fourth in total assets within the industry, following CITIC Securities, Guotai Junan, and Huatai Securities [2].

汇金系再有大动作。截至发稿， 涨超40%， 涨超6%。 | | | / 消息面上，中金公司与东兴证券、信达证券同步发布公告，宣布正在筹划由中金公司通过换股方式吸收合并这两家公司。根据三季报，中央汇金通过中国信 达间接持有信达证券78.67%股权；通过东方资产间接持有东兴证券45.14%股权。而中央汇金也是中金公司的实控人，直接持有中金公司40.11%股权。 I U:SU I I : I S.SU 9 富途牛牛 01359 中國信達 交易中 11/20 09:38:39 1.340 + +0.100 +8.06% | 最高 | | | 1.370 | | 를従 | | | 1.290 | | 開市 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 成交量 | | | 1.72億 | | 成交額 | | | 2.27億 | | | | | ID) ▲ | ミ目 | 日K | 園K | 月K | 愛K | 年K | 1分 | 3分 | 5分 | 10分 | 15分 | | 1.344 | | | | | | ...

消息面上，中金公司与东兴证券、信达证券同步发布公告，宣布正在筹划由中金公司通过换股方式吸收 合并这两家公司。根据三季报，中央汇金通过中国信达间接持有信达证券78.67%股权；通过东方资产 间接持有东兴证券45.14%股权。而中央汇金也是中金公司的实控人，直接持有中金公司40.11%股权。 智通财经APP获悉，汇金系再有大动作。截至发稿，信达国际控股(00111)涨14.29%，报0.44港元；中国 信达(01359)涨7.26%，报1.33港元，成交额4760.95万港元。 信达证券也发布公告称，公司与中金公司、东兴证券正在筹划由中金公司通过向东兴证券全体A股换股 股东发行A股股票、向信达证券全体A股换股股东发行A股股票的方式换股吸收合并东兴证券、信达证 券。据悉，信达证券为中国信达附属公司，为信达国际控股间接控股股东。 ...

格隆汇11月20日｜中金公司在港交所公告，公司的H股份因为内幕消息未公告将于今天上午九时正起短 暂停止买卖。因此，与该公司有关的所有债券和结构性产品亦将同时短暂停止买卖。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][8] Core Views - The merger of the companies under the Huijin system is expected to reshape the competitive landscape of the securities industry, indicating a shift towards a new era of consolidation among leading firms [2][3] - The combined entity is projected to enhance its capital strength and profitability, with significant improvements in various financial metrics post-merger [3][4] Financial Metrics Summary - The merged company is estimated to have total assets of CNY 1.01 trillion, making it the fourth securities firm to surpass the trillion mark in total assets [3] - The report forecasts a net profit of CNY 95 billion for the merged entity, ranking it sixth in the industry, with a revenue of CNY 274 billion, placing it third [3][4] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are CNY 1.60, CNY 1.84, and CNY 2.12 respectively, with a projected book value per share (BPS) of CNY 26.76 for 2026 [5][10] Business Synergies - The merger is anticipated to create strong synergies across brokerage, investment banking, and asset management sectors, enhancing the overall service capabilities of the new entity [4] - The investment banking segment is expected to maintain its leading position, with significant rankings in IPOs, equity financing, and bond underwriting [4][11] Valuation and Price Target - The target price for the company's A and H shares is set at CNY 56.20 and HKD 32.34 respectively, reflecting an increase from previous estimates [5][7] - The report suggests a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 2.1 for A shares and 1.1 for H shares for 2026, indicating a positive outlook on the company's valuation post-merger [5][13]

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Justice will release the Epstein case files within 30 days following a congressional vote to make the documents public [2] - The Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes indicate a strong division among officials regarding a potential interest rate cut in December, with many expressing caution due to stagnant inflation progress [3] - China and the Netherlands held face-to-face discussions regarding ASML, with China urging the Netherlands to take action to resolve semiconductor supply chain issues [4] Group 2 - China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that Japanese seafood will not have a market in China due to Japan's failure to meet safety commitments [5] - The Chinese Ministry of Finance announced a plan for central treasury cash management deposits totaling 200 billion yuan, with specific terms for the 11th and 12th phases [6] - The Ministry of Civil Affairs and the Financial Regulatory Bureau issued guidelines for the management of prepaid fees in elderly care institutions, emphasizing the use of custodial banks [7] Group 3 - A report predicts that by 2035, 52% of new cars will still have fuel tanks, with internal combustion engines remaining a significant power source [9] - New national standards for the use of recycled materials in home appliances have been released, aiming to promote green development in the industry [10] - The China Vaccine Industry Association has called for an end to low-cost bidding practices to ensure quality in vaccine production [11] Group 4 - A credit reform pilot program for business entities has been approved in Zhejiang province, aimed at enhancing credit construction [12] - Foshan has introduced new policies to support the real estate market, including allowing foreign workers to apply for housing fund loans [13] - The U.S. government plans to acquire up to 10 nuclear reactors, potentially funded by a $550 billion investment commitment from Japan [14] Group 5 - The World Health Organization plans to reduce its workforce by over 2,000 employees by mid-2026 as part of ongoing reforms [15] - The European Union has released a new plan to establish a "military Schengen zone" to enhance military mobility across member states [16] - Reports suggest that the U.S. and Russia are nearing a significant breakthrough in negotiations to end the Ukraine conflict, although Russia denies any new progress [17][18] Group 6 - Russia's visa-free policy for Chinese citizens is expected to boost tourism, potentially diverting visitors from Japan to Russia [19] - Poland has closed the last Russian consulate, prompting Russia to reduce the number of Polish diplomatic personnel in response [20] - GAC Toyota has denied plans to stop production of its main fuel vehicles by 2026, despite market rumors [21] Group 7 - LeEco founder Jia Yueting has established a second debt repayment trust, with assets sourced from his equity in FF and AIxC [22] - China International Capital Corporation is planning a major asset restructuring to absorb Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities, with total assets expected to exceed one trillion yuan [23] Group 8 - A recent survey indicates that 20% of global fund managers believe corporate capital expenditure is excessively aggressive, marking a significant shift in sentiment [28] - Japanese cuisine restaurants are shifting to domestic seafood sources, leading to a rise in local seafood stock prices as imports from Japan are suspended [29]