行业研究 银行 2025 年 03 月 16 日 华创证券研究所 证 券 研 究 报 告 银行业周报（20250310-20250316） 推荐（维持） 提振消费促进需求回暖，资产质量趋稳 证券分析师：贾靖 邮箱：jiajing@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040004 证券分析师：徐康 电话：021-20572556 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518060005 联系人：林宛慧 邮箱：linwanhui@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 42 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 114,991.99 | 13.04 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 78,973.67 | 11.41 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 5.0% | 17.3% | 17.7% | | 相对表现 | 2.8% | 15.6% | 24.4% | -12% 3% 19% 34% 24/03 2 ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本文件的內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本文件全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚 賴該等內容而引致之任何損失承擔任何責任。 招商銀行股份有限公司 CHINA MERCHANTS BANK CO., LTD. （於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司） （H股股票代碼：03968） 董事名單與其角色和職能 招商銀行股份有限公司董事會（「董事會」）成員茲載列如下： 非執行董事 繆建民（董事長） 石岱 孫雲飛 陳冬 朱立偉 執行董事 王良（行長兼首席執行官） 鍾德勝（首席風險官） 朱江濤（副行長） 2025年3月14日 2 獨立非執行董事 李孟剛 劉俏 田宏啟 李朝鮮 史永東 李健 1 董事會設立六個專門委員會。下表提供各董事會成員在該等委員會中所擔任的職 位： | 委員會 | | | | | | 關聯交易 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 戰略與可 持續發展 | 提名 | 薪酬 與考核 | 風險與 資本管理 | 審計 | 管理與 消費者 | | | 委員會 | 委 ...

A 股简称:招商银行 A 股代码:600036 公告编号:2025-006 招商银行股份有限公司 监事会决议公告 本公司监事会及全体监事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 招商银行股份有限公司（简称本公司或招商银行）于 2025 年 3 月 12 日以电 子邮件方式发出第十二届监事会第三十六次会议通知，于 3 月 14 日以书面传签 方式召开会议。会议应表决监事 9 名，实际表决监事 9 名，总有效表决票为 9 票。 会议的召开符合《中华人民共和国公司法》和《招商银行股份有限公司章程》等 有关规定。 会议审议通过了以下议案： 一、审议通过了《2024 年度董事履行职务情况评价报告》。 | 票 | | --- | | 同意：9 反对：0 票 弃权：0 票 | 二、审议通过了《2024 年度监事履行职务情况评价报告》。 同意：9 票 反对：0 票 弃权：0 票 三、审议通过了《2024 年度高级管理人员履行职务情况评价报告》。 同意：9 票 反对：0 票 弃权：0 票 特此公告。 招商银行股份有限公司监事会 2025 年 3 月 14 日 ...

A 股简称：招商银行 A 股代码：600036 公告编号：2025-007 会议审议通过了以下议案： 一、审议通过了《2024 年度普惠金融发展情况及 2025 年工作计划报告》。 同意：14 票 反对：0 票 弃权：0 票 二、审议通过了《2024 年度数据治理工作总结及 2025 年工作计划》。 同意：14 票 反对：0 票 弃权：0 票 三、审议通过了《招商银行市值管理制度》。 同意：14 票 反对：0 票 弃权：0 票 四、审议通过了《关于调整董事会专门委员会成员组成的议案》，调整后的 招商银行第十二届董事会薪酬与考核委员会、风险与资本管理委员会和审计委员 会成员组成具体如下： 招商银行股份有限公司 董事会决议公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 招商银行股份有限公司（简称本公司或招商银行）于 2025 年 3 月 12 日以电 子邮件方式发出第十二届董事会第四十六次会议通知，于 3 月 14 日以书面传签 方式召开会议。会议应参会董事 14 名，实际参会董事 14 名。会议的召开符合 《中华人民共和国 ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚 賴該等內容而引致之任何損失承擔任何責任。 招商銀行股份有限公司 CHINA MERCHANTS BANK CO., LTD. （於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司） 2025年3月13日 於本公告日期，本公司的執行董事為王良、鍾德勝及朱江濤；本公司的非執行董 事為繆建民、石岱、孫雲飛、陳冬及朱立偉；及本公司的獨立非執行董事為李孟 剛、劉俏、田宏啟、李朝鮮、史永東及李健。 招商銀行股份有限公司（「本公司」）董事會茲通告謹定於2025年3月25日（星期二） 舉行董事會會議，將審議（其中包括）本公司截至2024年12月31日止之年度業績 及派發2024年度股息之建議。 招商銀行股份有限公司董事會 （H股股票代碼：03968) 董事會會議召開日期 ...

Summary of the Conference Call for China Merchants Bank Company Overview - **Company**: China Merchants Bank (招商银行) - **Date of Call**: March 11, 2025 Key Points Industry and Company Performance - China Merchants Bank maintains a leading dividend payout ratio of approximately 35%, with both A-shares and H-shares yielding around 4.6%, providing absolute return attractiveness [2][3][4] - The bank's business model is strong, reflected in its asset-liability management, asset quality, and profitability, with a long-term leading net interest margin and low funding costs as core advantages [2][3] - As of mid-2024, total assets under management (AUM) exceeded 14 trillion, with non-deposit AUM over 10 trillion, significantly outperforming peers, indicating greater revenue elasticity during market recovery [2][4] - In Q4 2024, net interest margin and non-interest income growth rebounded, with overall profit growth turning positive, showcasing good profitability stability and controlled non-performing loan (NPL) ratios [2][4] Investment Value and Market Position - Institutional holdings in China Merchants Bank remain the highest in the sector, with a significant increase in quarterly holdings, indicating strong market confidence [2][4] - The bank is positioned well for both defensive and offensive investment strategies, benefiting from medium to long-term capital inflow policies [2][4] Future Outlook and Investment Logic - The investment logic for the banking sector in 2025 focuses on high-certainty stocks, emphasizing dividend logic and valuation recovery, with a preference for companies with high return on equity (ROE) and low current valuation premiums [3][5] - The bank's ability to maintain high dividend payouts and stable profit growth is expected to continue, despite external economic complexities [4][5] Challenges and Risks - The banking sector faces challenges such as declining interest margins and evolving credit risks, with expectations of continued margin compression into 2025 [8][9] - However, the overall market perception of credit risk has improved, and systemic risk events are deemed unlikely, allowing for potential upward valuation movements [9] Comparative Analysis - China Merchants Bank is compared favorably to international banks in terms of business model, with a stable ROE driven by fee-based income rather than traditional risk-based income [12] - The bank's valuation is expected to recover from 0.6-0.7 times to 0.8-0.9 times price-to-book (PB) ratio, indicating potential for absolute return opportunities [10] Wealth Management and Real Estate Market Impact - The wealth management market has faced challenges due to insurance integration impacts, but these effects are expected to diminish, leading to a return to stable growth [11] - The real estate market risks are becoming more apparent, but the bank is positioned to navigate these challenges effectively [11] Conclusion - China Merchants Bank is well-positioned for future growth, with a strong focus on maintaining high dividend payouts and leveraging its robust business model to capitalize on market opportunities [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is the recruitment for industry research positions focusing on Internet software, large models, integrated circuits, and consumer electronics at China Merchants Bank Research Institute [1][16][20]. Group 2 - Responsibilities include conducting in-depth research on industry and company competition, business models, development trends, and risk conditions through field research and data analysis [4][16]. - The role involves writing industry strategies, special reports, and deep-dive analyses, particularly in the Internet software and large model sectors [4][16]. - The position requires tracking important industry and company data, establishing an industry analysis database, and forming an industry research framework [4][17]. - Providing research services to business departments and clients, participating in various report meetings, strategy meetings, seminars, and client visits to promote the application of research results [4][17]. - Completing other tasks assigned by leadership and the department [4][17]. Group 3 - Requirements include a master's degree or higher, over three years of research experience, and a preference for candidates with a background in both industry and finance [6][18]. - Candidates should have a solid research foundation in relevant industries, excellent data analysis, investigation, and writing skills [6][18]. - A passion for industry research, sensitivity to industry development trends, and strong logical thinking, learning, and communication skills are essential [6][18]. - Candidates should be diligent, responsible, team-oriented, and able to work under pressure [7][19]. Group 4 - The positions are located in Shenzhen, China [11][23]. - The application deadline is May 23, 2025 [13][25].

Group 1 - The overall economic outlook indicates a divergence between the US and Europe, with the US showing signs of short-term cooling while maintaining a strong economic foundation, whereas Europe continues to struggle with weak economic performance [4][23]. - The US economy is experiencing a marginal slowdown, with GDP growth forecasts declining, particularly in private consumption and trade deficits, while private investment remains robust [5][22]. - Inflation in the US is showing signs of persistence, with CPI inflation rebounding over the past four months, indicating a potential for sustained inflation levels above 2% [9][12]. Group 2 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to continue lowering interest rates, potentially reaching 2% this year, as the Eurozone economy remains weak and requires stimulus [23][25]. - Japan's economy is on a recovery path, with expectations of interest rate hikes above 1% this year, supported by rising wages and inflation [30][32]. - The global interest rate environment is likely to exceed market expectations, with the US Federal Reserve maintaining high rates and the ECB facing risks of inflation interrupting its rate-cutting path [35]. Group 3 - The Chinese economy is showing signs of recovery post-Spring Festival, with consumer spending rebounding and real estate sales improving in major cities [36][37]. - Credit growth in China has surged, with January seeing a record high in new loans, although the sustainability of this growth remains uncertain [48][54]. - Inflation data in China reflects seasonal trends, with CPI rising due to increased consumer spending during the holiday period, while PPI remains subdued due to seasonal production slowdowns [43][50]. Group 4 - The US stock market is under increasing pressure due to economic indicators showing a downturn, with S&P 500 profit growth forecasts declining [64]. - The outlook for US Treasury bonds suggests a volatile environment, with recommendations to favor short to medium-duration bonds due to the high coupon advantage [67][68]. - The currency market is influenced heavily by tariff policies, with the US dollar expected to remain strong despite potential short-term corrections [72][73].

Core Viewpoint - Ping An Life's stake in three major banks' H-shares is a necessary choice for insurance capital seeking stable returns amid an "asset shortage," responding to policy calls and enhancing competitiveness through bancassurance collaboration [1][8]. Group 1: Investment Actions - Ping An Life disclosed that it has reached a 5% stake in Agricultural Bank of China H-shares, marking the third major bank it has invested in since 2025 [2]. - As of now, Ping An Life's holdings in Agricultural Bank, Postal Savings Bank, and China Merchants Bank H-shares have all surpassed 5% [2]. - Following the purchase of 133 million Industrial and Commercial Bank of China H-shares, Ping An Group's stake rose to 18.08% [2]. Group 2: Significance of Insurance Capital's Stake - The investment optimizes asset allocation as current market interest rates are declining, making fixed-income assets less capable of covering insurance liabilities [4]. - Insurance capital can smooth financial statement volatility by classifying bank stocks under FVOCI, avoiding direct impacts of stock price fluctuations on current profits [4]. - The move aligns with regulatory encouragement for insurance capital to support the real economy, with bank stocks being a core economic sector [4]. Group 3: Reasons for Choosing Specific Banks - The selected banks offer high dividend yields and low valuations, with Agricultural Bank's H-share yield exceeding 9% and a price-to-book ratio below 1 [6]. - These banks exhibit strong operational stability, with controllable non-performing loan ratios and growth in revenue and net profit as of 2024 [6]. - H-shares provide liquidity advantages, influenced by international capital flows and favorable valuations in the Hong Kong market [6]. Group 4: Impact on Capital Markets - The entry of insurance capital boosts market confidence, signaling positive trends and potentially driving bank stock valuation recovery [7]. - This investment encourages a long-term investment philosophy, shifting market focus from short-term speculation to value investing [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the continuous acquisition of bank stocks by insurance capital, particularly by Ping An Group, indicating a strategic shift towards stable, high-dividend assets in response to market conditions and regulatory changes [1][5][9]. Group 1: Ping An Group's Acquisitions - Since the fourth quarter of last year, Ping An Group has been actively increasing its holdings in bank stocks, including Agricultural Bank of China, Postal Savings Bank, and China Merchants Bank, with significant increases noted on February 20 [1][2]. - As of February 20, Ping An Group's holdings in Agricultural Bank's H-shares exceeded 8%, while holdings in Postal Savings Bank and China Merchants Bank surpassed 7% [2][3]. - The total expenditure for these acquisitions from December 18 to February 20 reached nearly 170 billion HKD, with a current market value exceeding 200 billion HKD [3][10]. Group 2: Industry Trends and Implications - The insurance sector has seen a surge in shareholding activities, with 20 instances of shareholding increases last year, marking a four-year high, and six instances already in the first two months of this year [5][6]. - Analysts suggest that the frequent acquisitions by insurance capital are driven by the need to stabilize returns amid fluctuating financial instruments and to respond to the downward pressure on interest rates [5][12]. - The shift towards high-dividend bank stocks is seen as a strategic move to enhance asset allocation and improve financial stability, particularly in light of new accounting standards that favor long-term equity investments [5][6]. Group 3: Performance of Bank Stocks - The A-share bank sector experienced a cumulative increase of over 42% last year, ranking first among 30 major sectors, with several banks seeing stock price increases exceeding 60% [10][11]. - Preliminary reports from 16 A-share listed banks indicate positive growth in both revenue and net profit, with banks attributing this to increased credit issuance and effective cost management [11][12]. - The overall outlook for the banking sector remains cautiously optimistic, with expectations of stable asset quality and potential revenue growth in the coming years [12][13].