Core Viewpoint - China Merchants Bank (600036) announced a scheduled maintenance to enhance the reliability of its business systems, which will result in a temporary interruption of certain retail and corporate services on February 28, 2026, from 00:00 to 06:00 [1] Group 1 - The scheduled maintenance aims to improve the reliability of the bank's business systems [1] - During the maintenance period, some retail and corporate services will be briefly unavailable [1] - Customers are advised to retry their transactions later if they encounter issues during the maintenance [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Merchants Bank is expected to achieve a 1.2% year-on-year growth in net profit to 150.2 billion yuan by 2025, surpassing both the bank's and market forecasts, primarily due to improvements in net interest income and a continued narrowing of the year-on-year decline in non-interest income [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The bank's revenue is anticipated to remain stable year-on-year for the previous year [1] - Return on Equity (ROE) is projected to decline by 105 basis points to 13.4% [1] - The bank's provision coverage ratio has dropped below 400%, potentially due to stricter bad debt recognition standards and accelerated disposal of non-performing assets [1] Group 2: Analyst Ratings and Forecasts - The bank maintains a "Hold" rating, but the target price has been reduced from 52 HKD to 49 HKD to reflect the latest profit revisions and lower long-term ROE forecasts [1] - Earnings estimates for 2025 have been increased by 1%, while forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been decreased by 2.9% and 1.1%, respectively [1]

● 本报记者 吴杨 截至1月26日中国证券报记者发稿时，招商银行、浦发银行、中信银行、杭州银行等8家银行披露了业绩 快报。数据显示，2025年这些银行整体保持稳健发展态势，营业收入与归母净利润普遍实现正增长，资 产质量核心指标稳中向好。 规模有序扩张 已披露2025年业绩快报的8家银行（4家股份行、3家城商行、1家农商行）均实现归母净利润同比正增 长，其中7家银行实现营业收入与归母净利润"双增"。 城商行业绩增长势头较为强劲。2025年，杭州银行以12.05%的归母净利润同比增速位居前列；宁波银 行实现归母净利润293.33亿元，同比增长8.13%；南京银行实现归母净利润218.07亿元，同比增长 8.08%。股份行中，2025年，浦发银行实现归母净利润500.17亿元，同比增长10.52%，增速较为突出； 中信银行、招商银行、兴业银行在面临多重挑战的经营环境下，归母净利润分别实现了2.98%、 对于拨备水平的适度回调，市场观点认为，这主要源于资产质量整体改善，部分银行得以释放拨备来支 撑利润增长。国联民生证券银行业首席分析师王先爽表示，银行通过拨备反哺利润需满足两方面条件： 一是拨备储备较为充足，二是上一期 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The current bond market is showing signs of recovery, primarily driven by increased purchases from banks, with large banks favoring 7-10 year bonds and smaller banks preferring bonds over 10 years, stabilizing market expectations [1][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **Increased Bond Purchases**: Banks are enhancing their bond allocations due to the attractiveness of long-term bond yields, which have surpassed deposit costs. The average deposit cost for banks has decreased to 1.6%-1.7%, making long-term bonds more appealing [1][3]. - **Market Stability**: Despite concerns over credit growth, maturity of fixed deposits, and stock market gains potentially leading to capital outflows, there has been no significant outflow of funds from banks recently. Banks have shown the capacity to continue purchasing bonds [1][3]. - **Interest Rate Movements**: Last week, interest rates across various maturities declined, with 10-year and 30-year government bonds falling by 1.3 and 1.6 basis points to 1.83% and 2.29%, respectively. The market is in a recovery phase, supported by bank purchases [1][4]. - **Investment Strategy**: A "barbell strategy" is recommended for investors, suggesting an increase in short-term certificates of deposit and long-term interest-bearing assets. The market is expected to continue fluctuating downward in the short term, with long-term physical assets potentially nearing 100 billion [2][6]. Additional Important Insights - **Liquidity and Funding Sources**: Currency settlement (结汇) does not directly enhance market liquidity or funding sources. While it can improve certain liquidity indicators like NSFR and LCR, it does not increase actual funding sources. The potential for liquidity improvement may stem from other factors, such as the lack of outflows from fixed deposits and a shift in household savings towards deposits due to weak real estate sales [5][6]. - **Future Market Trends**: The market is expected to stabilize as non-bank institutions replenish their positions, leading to a normalization of the yield curve slope. Long-term interest rates may decline further, potentially reaching levels between 1.6% and 1.7% or lower [4][6]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, focusing on the bond market dynamics, investment strategies, and liquidity considerations.

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that China Merchants Bank (600036)(03968) has released preliminary results for 2025, with revenue and net profit at 337.5 billion yuan and 150.2 billion yuan respectively, indicating a stabilization in revenue year-on-year after a decline in the first three quarters of 2025 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The bank's revenue for the year remained flat year-on-year, reversing the downward trend observed in the first three quarters of 2025 [1] - UBS sets a 12-month target price for China Merchants Bank at 56 HKD, maintaining a "neutral" rating [1] Group 2: Income and Loan Metrics - The bank's net interest income and average assets are expected to rise by 2 basis points quarter-on-quarter to 1.73% in Q4 2025 [1] - It is anticipated that net fee income will continue to show steady growth, while trading income may be negatively impacted by rising bond yields and a high comparative base [1] Group 3: Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remains stable at 0.94%, but the NPL coverage ratio has significantly decreased by 20.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 391.79% [1] - The loan provision ratio has decreased by 24 basis points quarter-on-quarter to 3.68%, indicating that the bank maintained relatively low credit costs in Q4 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that China Merchants Bank (03968) has released preliminary results for 2025, with revenue and net profit at 337.5 billion and 150.2 billion RMB respectively, indicating a stabilization in revenue year-on-year after a decline in the first three quarters of 2025 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The bank's revenue for the year remained flat year-on-year, reversing the downward trend observed in the first three quarters of 2025 [1] - UBS sets a 12-month target price for China Merchants Bank at 56 HKD, with a "neutral" rating [1] Group 2: Income and Loan Metrics - The bank's net interest income and average assets are expected to rise by 2 basis points quarter-on-quarter to 1.73% in Q4 2025 [1] - Net fee income is anticipated to maintain steady growth, while trading income may be negatively impacted by rising bond yields and a high comparative base [1] Group 3: Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remains stable at 0.94%, but the NPL coverage ratio has significantly decreased by 20.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 391.79% [1] - The loan provision ratio has decreased by 24 basis points quarter-on-quarter to 3.68%, reflecting the bank's maintenance of low credit costs in Q4 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has issued a report rating China Merchants Bank (600036) (03968) as "Buy" for both A-shares and H-shares, with a 12-month target price of 54.22 RMB for A-shares and 52.96 HKD for H-shares [1] Financial Performance - China Merchants Bank reported preliminary results for the fiscal year 2025, with total revenue of 338 billion RMB and a net profit of 150 billion RMB [1] - For the fourth quarter of 2025, the estimated revenue is 86 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2%, which is 1% lower than Goldman Sachs' expectations [1] - The net profit for the same quarter is projected to be 36 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 3%, also 1% below Goldman Sachs' forecast [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Goldman Sachs has rated China Merchants Bank (03968) with a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares, setting a 12-month target price of 54.22 RMB for A-shares and 52.96 HKD for H-shares [1] Group 2 - China Merchants Bank (600036.SH) reported preliminary performance for the year 2025, with total revenue of 338 billion RMB and a net profit of 150 billion RMB [1] - The estimated revenue for the fourth quarter of 2025 is 86 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 2%, which is 1% lower than Goldman Sachs' expectations [1] - The net profit for the fourth quarter is projected to be 36 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 3%, also 1% lower than Goldman Sachs' expectations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the current AH premium rates of various stocks, indicating significant disparities between H-shares and A-shares, with some stocks showing extremely high premiums while others exhibit negative premiums [1][2]. Group 1: Top AH Premium Rates - Northeast Electric (00042) leads with an AH premium rate of 815.25%, followed by Zhejiang Shibao (01057) at 363.71% and Beijing Jingcheng Machinery Electric (00187) at 272.95% [1][2]. - The top ten stocks with the highest AH premium rates include Sinopec Oilfield Service (01033) at 270.11% and Hongye Futures (03678) at 263.50% [2]. Group 2: Lowest AH Premium Rates - The stocks with the lowest AH premium rates include CATL (03750) at -11.21%, followed by Hengrui Medicine (01276) at -2.51% and China Merchants Bank (03968) at -1.68% [1][2]. - Other notable stocks with low premiums include WuXi AppTec (02359) at 2.25% and Midea Group (00300) at 7.52% [2]. Group 3: Premium Deviation Values - The stocks with the highest deviation values include Goldwind Technology (02208) at 30.93%, followed by Andeli Juice (02218) at 22.80% and CanSino Biologics (06185) at 21.10% [1][2]. - Conversely, the stocks with the lowest deviation values include Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable (06869) at -26.96%, Nanhua Futures (02691) at -26.55%, and Northeast Electric (00042) at -26.34% [1][3].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights significant sell orders in the closing auction for multiple heavyweight stocks, with Zijin Mining's sell order amount exceeding 4 billion yuan [1] - Other companies such as China Ping An, Jiangxi Copper, China Duty Free Group, Shandong Gold, Wanhua Chemical, and Kweichow Moutai also had sell orders exceeding 400 million yuan [1] - Previously, on January 14, 2026, several stocks including China Merchants Bank, Zijin Mining, and Yangtze Power had sell orders exceeding 1 billion yuan [1]