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【招银研究】海外风险扰动,国内股债震荡——宏观与策略周度前瞻(2025.05.26-05.30)
招商银行研究· 2025-05-26 10:43
海外经济:稳步扩张 美国经济保持稳步扩张态势,美联储年内降息预期收敛至2次(约50bp)。 亚特兰大联储GDPNOW模型预测二季度美国实际GDP年化增速为2.4%,实现转正。其中个人消费(PCE)增 速达到3.6%,基本走出了关税恐慌;私人投资(不含库存)增速达到2.7%,主要来自设备(7.1%)及知识产 权(5.3%)分项的贡献,地产(-3.0%)及建筑(-1.7%)则在高利率压制下转向收缩。 就业市场依然稳健,失业水平保持低位。周频首次申领失业金人数回落至22.7万,仍处相对低位。基于当前数 据推测,5月失业率水平或位于4.1-4.3%区间,与前值基本持平。 进口商承担大部分关税影响,通胀上行幅度仍然可控。根据最新权威学术研究,截至5月14日,关税的通胀效 应仅表现为进口商品价格上涨约2%。如无意外,下半年美国通胀中枢将稳定在3%附近,不会无序上行,但也 无法实现美联储2%目标。 "漂亮 大法案"进展良好,叠加马斯克宣布回归主业,美国财政整顿的首次尝试似乎已经失败。周频财政赤字 额达到$919亿,大幅超出季节性水平。2025财年美国赤字水平将继续处于高位。 基于"双目标"及经济、财政形势推演,美联储并无大 ...
存银行,还不如买银行股?
第一财经· 2025-05-26 01:26
2025.05. 26 本文字数:2751,阅读时长大约4.5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈君君 今年以来,国内存款利率持续走低,多家银行1年期定期存款利率日前跌破1%,传统储蓄吸引力减 弱。与此同时,银行股的"类固收"属性凸显,截至5月23日,42家A股上市银行中,超七成近12个月 股息率超4%,部分银行股息率突破8%,远超存款及国债收益。 板块行情分化,区域银行占上风 这种收益差距引发"替代效应",推动银行股表现强劲,年初以来涨幅达7.66%。险资和公募基金纷纷 加仓银行股,持仓比例显著提升。进一步来看,银行板块内部走势分化,区域银行表现更为突出。业 内人士认为,短期内高股息策略将继续推动银行股上涨,而中长期来看,息差水平和资产质量是关 键。 银行股的存款"替代效应"凸显 自2025年起,国内存款利率持续走低,各大商业银行纷纷开启"降息潮"。目前,1年期定期存款利率 最低已跌破1%,达到历史最新低点。在传统储蓄收益吸引力不断减弱的形势下,"存银行不如买银行 股"的讨论再度升温。 根据Wind数据,截至5月23日收盘,在42家A股上市银行中,有31家银行的近12个月股息率超过了 4%。其中,平安银行、民生银行 ...
港交所将提高恒生指数衍生产品持仓限额;地平线机器人被纳入港股通名单丨港交所早参
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-05-25 23:25
Group 1 - Horizon Robotics has been included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect list, effective from May 26, which is expected to enhance its market position and attract more mainland investors [1] - The inclusion in the Stock Connect is seen as a recognition of Horizon Robotics' market status, likely increasing stock liquidity and supporting long-term development [1] Group 2 - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited announced an increase in the position limits for Hang Seng Index derivatives, effective July 2, aiming to enhance market liquidity and solidify Hong Kong's status as a global risk management center [2] - This adjustment reflects the exchange's ongoing commitment to developing the derivatives market and is expected to attract more international investors [2] Group 3 - Haitian Flavor Industry has passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange hearing and plans to achieve A+H listing, with significant revenue figures of approximately 25.6 billion yuan, 24.6 billion yuan, and 26.9 billion yuan for 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively [3] - The A+H listing is anticipated to broaden Haitian's financing channels and enhance its competitiveness in the international market [3] Group 4 - Zhu Jiangtao has resigned as an executive director of China Merchants Bank due to work reasons, with Wang Xiaoqing nominated as the new executive director [4] - This management change may impact the bank's strategic direction and internal management dynamics, warranting investor attention on the new director's background and vision [4] Group 5 - On May 23, the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.24% to 23601.26, while the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.09% to 5246.87, and the Hang Seng Composite Index increased by 0.31% to 8583.86 [5]
招商银行: 招商银行股份有限公司关于执行董事辞任的公告
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-05-23 10:48
A 股简称:招商银行 A 股代码:600036 公告编号:2025-024 招商银行股份有限公司 关于执行董事辞任的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者 重大遗漏,并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 一、董事离任的基本情况 招商银行股份有限公司(简称本公司)董事会收到本公司执行董 事朱江涛先生的辞任函。朱江涛先生因工作原因,向本公司董事会提 请辞去执行董事、董事会关联交易管理与消费者权益保护委员会委员 及副行长职务。朱江涛先生的辞任自 2025 年 5 月 23 日起生效,具体 情况如下: 是否继续在 是否存在 原定任期 姓名 离任职务 离任时间 离任原因 本公司及其控股 未履行完毕 到期日 子公司任职 的公开承诺 执行董事 董事会关联交易 管理与消费者权 2025 年 2025 年 朱江涛 因工作原因 否 否 益保护委员会 5 月 23 日 6 月 28 日 委员 副行长 朱江涛先生已确认与本公司董事会无不同意见,也无与其辞任有 关的其他事项需要提请本公司股东和债权人注意。 本公司董事会对朱江涛先生在任职期间为本公司作出的贡献给予 高度评价并致以衷心的感 ...
招商银行手机银行APP接入中国银联云闪付网络支付平台
招商银行App· 2025-05-23 07:30
近日,招商银行手机银行App接入中国银联云闪付网络支付平台,实现支付体验焕新升级。双方基于云闪 付网络支付平台,整合优质商户资源和服务场景,集成二维码支付、银行卡管理等功能,支持用户在银 联网络超 3000万 家商户使用,形成了全方位、场景化的便民金融服务生态体系,为用户提供更优质、更 便捷的支付体验,共同践行金融为民初心。 招商银行以"体系化机制、专业化能力、生态化场景"三项建设为抓手,持续以生态化服务厚植科技金融 新土壤,本次合作,是招商银行与中国银联"数字金融"合作的进一步深化,双方基于云闪付网络支付平 台,共同打造银行侧统一的支付体验。用户通过招商银行App即可享受到云闪付丰富的服务内容和优惠权 益,也将于近期推出一系列消费满减优惠。 未来,招商银行将继续与中国银联紧密合作,为广大用户提供更加便捷的支付服务和更加丰富的优惠活 动,不断为支付产业高质量发展贡献力量。 ...
招商银行20250522
2025-05-22 15:23
Summary of China Merchants Bank Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Merchants Bank (招商银行) - **Date**: May 22, 2025 Key Points Financial Performance - **Net Interest Income**: Increased by nearly 2% year-on-year in Q1 2025, attributed to a narrowing of interest rate cuts, despite a decline in net interest margin by 11 basis points year-on-year [2][7][8] - **Loan Pricing**: Overall slight decrease in loan pricing; corporate loans saw a significant decline while retail loans remained stable or slightly decreased due to regulatory guidance [2][3][6] - **Deposit Growth**: Weak loan demand has led to sluggish deposit growth, with M1 and M2 widening [2][10] - **Wealth Management Fees**: Grew by 10.5% year-on-year in Q1 2025, marking the first significant positive growth since 2022, driven by nearly 30% growth in fund sales, wealth management, and trust services [2][13] - **Card Fees**: Card transaction fees and settlement fees declined by 7-8% year-on-year due to weak consumption [2][14] Loan Demand and Credit Quality - **Credit Demand**: Remains weak in Q2 2025; retail loans showed marginal recovery in early May but overall demand is still not significantly improved [3][4] - **Asset Quality**: Retail loan non-performing loans (NPLs) are rising, but the bank maintains a solid provision coverage ratio [3][17][18] - **Corporate Loan Risks**: Concentrated in real estate and related sectors, with overall asset quality in other sectors remaining low [3][19][20] Market Conditions and Economic Outlook - **Trade War Impact**: Limited short-term impact from the US-China trade war observed; however, long-term effects depend on future tariff policies [4][5] - **Interest Rate Trends**: New loan pricing has slightly decreased; retail loan pricing remains stable or slightly down due to regulatory constraints [6][8] - **Deposit Rate Adjustments**: Recent adjustments in deposit rates have raised concerns about potential deposit outflows, but the bank views the changes as beneficial due to its high proportion of demand deposits [9][11] Future Strategies - **Loan Strategy**: The bank will not rigidly increase any specific type of loan but will adjust based on market demand [4][21] - **Wealth Management Focus**: Continued emphasis on wealth management services to enhance fee income, with expectations for further growth in Q2 2025 [13][14] - **Dividends**: Plans for mid-term dividends in 2025 have been announced, with distributions expected in early and mid-2026 [23] Risks and Challenges - **Economic Uncertainty**: The bank faces significant operational pressure due to geopolitical factors and weak loan demand, with Q1 2025 expected to be the most challenging period of the year [15][16][22] - **Retail Loan Quality**: While retail loan quality is under scrutiny, the bank has sufficient provisions to manage potential risks [18][22] Conclusion - China Merchants Bank is navigating a challenging economic landscape with a focus on maintaining asset quality, adjusting loan strategies based on market conditions, and enhancing wealth management services to drive fee income growth. The outlook remains cautious due to external economic pressures and internal loan demand weaknesses.
招商银行南昌分行:科技金融赋能保函服务 助力实体经济高质量发展
Zhong Guo Jin Rong Xin Xi Wang· 2025-05-22 12:36
Group 1 - The importance of financial services to the real economy is increasingly highlighted in the current economic context, with the People's Bank of China issuing documents to enhance the technology finance policy framework in 2024 [1] - China Merchants Bank Nanchang Branch is actively responding to national policies by developing digital guarantee products to support enterprises and inject financial vitality into the real economy [1] Group 2 - The bank prioritizes customer experience and has developed domestic guarantee products, optimizing service processes and creating a digital brand called "Guarantee Butler" [2] - In 2020, the "Guarantee Butler" service was launched, allowing for T+0 automatic issuance of guarantees, achieving full online, paperless, and automated processes [2] Group 3 - The bank has seen continuous growth in domestic guarantee customers and issuance amounts for three consecutive years, serving over 600 clients and issuing more than 14,000 guarantees, setting historical records [3] - The variety of guarantee products has expanded to include special types such as customs payment guarantees and wage payment guarantees, enhancing the product system [3] Group 4 - The bank has been innovative in guarantee services, becoming one of the first banks to achieve data transmission with the General Administration of Customs and establishing various electronic guarantee platforms [4] - By 2025, the bank has connected with multiple important platform systems, issuing electronic guarantees totaling over 10 billion yuan [4]
低利率时代零售银行转型样本启示
Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang· 2025-05-22 07:53
作者 胡群 新一轮存款降息潮来袭,5月20日起,包括工、农、中、建、交、邮储、招行、光大在内的主要银行纷纷下调存款利率。其中,五大国有银行活期及一年期 以内定期存款利率下调5-15个基点,三年期、五年期定期存款利率下调25个基点。邮储银行及招行、光大等全国性股份制银行也于同日下调存款利率。 其中,邮储银行3个月、6个月、1年期、2年期、3年期、5年期定期存款利率(整存整取)分别为0.65%、0.86%、0.98%、1.05%、1.25%、1.3%;招行同期限 定期存款利率分别为0.65%、0.85%、0.95%、1.05%、1.25%、1.3%;光大银行同期限定期存款利率略高,分别为0.7%、0.95%、1.15%、1.2%、1.3%、 1.35%。 中国金融业步入低利率时代,各家机构都在积极思考如何在逆境中突围。在银行业普遍降息的背景下,招商银行的资产负债结构使其具备一定的抗风险能 力。2025年一季报显示,招行活期存款日均余额占比达51.80%,显著高于行业水平。较高的活期存款占比降低了资金成本对利率波动的敏感性,使招行在 降息周期中受影响相对有限。此外,依托强大的品牌效应、客户黏性及差异化服务能力,招行 ...
最新!又有多家银行宣布:下调!
天天基金网· 2025-05-22 05:26
Core Viewpoint - The recent reduction in deposit rates by multiple banks, including state-owned and joint-stock banks, aligns with market expectations and aims to stabilize net interest margins while supporting the real economy [1][5][6]. Group 1: Deposit Rate Adjustments - Nine out of twelve joint-stock banks have announced reductions in deposit rates, with significant cuts in medium to long-term deposit rates, particularly a 25 basis points (BP) decrease for 3-year and 5-year fixed deposits [1][2][3]. - Specific banks like Ping An Bank and Minsheng Bank have adjusted their deposit rates, with Ping An Bank's rates for various terms now at 0.70%, 0.95%, 1.15%, 1.20%, and 1.30%, reflecting reductions of 15 BP for most terms and 25 BP for longer terms [2][3]. - The speed of these adjustments is seen as necessary for banks to manage their liabilities effectively and maintain competitiveness in the current economic environment [5][6]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - Investors have anticipated the decline in deposit rates, with no significant rush to lock in rates observed at bank branches, indicating a broader acceptance of a long-term downward trend in deposit rates [3][5]. - Experts believe that the synchronized reduction in deposit rates by banks is crucial for reducing financing costs for the real economy and stabilizing net interest margins [5][6]. Group 3: Implications for Banking Sector - The current trend of deposit rate reductions is expected to create more room for lowering financing costs in the future, which is essential for improving banks' profitability and sustainability in serving the real economy [6][7]. - The recent adjustments have seen deposit rate cuts that exceed the reductions in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), indicating a strategic move by banks to manage their interest expenses more effectively [6][7].
又有多家银行宣布:下调!
新华网财经· 2025-05-22 02:41
5月20日,中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布,5月贷款市场报价利率(LPR)报价出炉: 5年期以上LPR为3.5%,1年期LPR为3%,均较前期下降10个基点。 同日,国有六大行、招商银行宣布即日起下调存款挂牌利率,最大降幅25个基点。5月21日,多家股份 行跟进下调存款挂牌利率。 继国有六大行之后, 9家股份制银行也跟进下调存款利率 。 5月21日,兴业银行、中信银行、浦发银行、平安银行、民生银行、华夏银行、广发银行7家股份行均宣 布,自5月21日执行新的存款挂牌利率。5月20日,招商银行、光大银行已执行下调后的存款挂牌利率。 9家股份行均 对定期整存整取3个月、6个月、1年期、2年期存款挂牌利率下调15个基点,对3年期、5年 期存款挂牌利率下调25个基点。 招商银行整存整取1年期、2年期、3年期、5年期存款挂牌利率分别下调至0.95%、1.05%、1.25%、 1.30%。其余8家股份行整存整取1年期、2年期、3年期、5年期挂牌利率降至1.15%、1.2%(民生银行为 1.15%)、1.30%、1.35%。 | 银行 | | 3个月定期整存整取 | | 6个月定期整存整取 | | 1年期定期整存 ...