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东吴证券晨会纪要-20250714
Soochow Securities· 2025-07-13 23:30
Macro Strategy - The impact of real estate on China's economy has significantly weakened, with a projected GDP contribution from the real estate sector of approximately 13 trillion yuan in 2024, accounting for 9.6% of total GDP, down from 16.9% in 2016 [8][9] - Despite negative growth in real estate investment and sales, there is an expectation of stabilization in the market, driven by policies such as special bonds for purchasing existing properties [8][9] Fixed Income - The expected listing price range for the China General Nuclear Power Corporation's convertible bond is between 126.83 and 140.94 yuan, with a subscription rate of 0.0140% [10][11] - The bond has a total issuance scale of 4.9 billion yuan, with a credit rating of AAA and a yield to maturity of 1.66% [10][11] Industry Analysis Jerry Holdings - Jerry Holdings has secured a contract for a natural gas booster station project in Algeria worth approximately 8.5 billion USD, enhancing its presence in the North African oil and gas market [12][14] - The company maintains a profit forecast of 3.03 billion yuan for 2025, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 12, 10, and 9 for 2025-2027 [12][14] Ascentage Pharma - Ascentage Pharma's APG-2575 has received conditional approval in China, marking it as the first domestic Bcl-2 inhibitor, with revenue forecasts of 519 million, 3.215 billion, and 2.095 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [15][16] - The drug is expected to provide a new treatment option for patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia/small lymphocytic lymphoma [15][16] Chongqing Department Store - The company reported a 9% year-on-year increase in net profit for H1 2025, despite a 10.45% decline in revenue, primarily due to a shift towards new energy vehicles [5][16] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 is maintained at 1.41 billion, 1.50 billion, and 1.58 billion yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 9, 8, and 8 [5][16] Huace Testing - Huace Testing anticipates a year-on-year net profit growth of 8% to 10% for Q2 2025, driven by traditional business innovations and expansion into new markets [17][18] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 is set at 1.06 billion, 1.17 billion, and 1.31 billion yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 20, 18, and 16 [17][18] Changjiang Power - The company aims to achieve a power generation target of 300 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025, with profit forecasts of 35.028 billion, 36.715 billion, and 37.087 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [19][20] - The current price-to-earnings ratio is 20.9, 19.9, and 19.7, with a projected dividend yield of 3.35% [19][20]
亚盛医药-B(06855.HK):中国首个原创BCL-2抑制剂利生妥获批上市
Ge Long Hui· 2025-07-12 19:10
Company Update - The company announced that its self-developed Bcl-2 selective inhibitor, APG-2575 (also known as Lisangtuo), received conditional approval from the National Medical Products Administration of China for the treatment of adult patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia/small lymphocytic lymphoma (CLL/SLL) who have previously undergone at least one systemic therapy including a Bruton tyrosine kinase (BTK) inhibitor [1] - Lisangtuo is the first Bcl-2 inhibitor approved in China for the treatment of CLL/SLL and the second globally, following AbbVie's venetoclax [1] Clinical Value and Research - The approval of Lisangtuo is based on a pivotal Phase II clinical study (APG2575CC201) that demonstrated an overall response rate (ORR) meeting the predefined endpoint for patients who failed BTK inhibitors and/or immunochemotherapy, with a favorable safety profile [2] - The drug has been included in the "CSCO Lymphoma Diagnosis and Treatment Guidelines 2025" as of April 2025 [2] - The company is conducting four global Phase III clinical studies to further explore Lisangtuo's indications, including studies for treated CLL/SLL patients and newly diagnosed acute myeloid leukemia (AML) patients [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its net profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 at a loss of 1.09 billion yuan and 320 million yuan, respectively [2] - Given the approval of Lisangtuo and the potential for global indication expansion, the company maintains an outperform rating and raises the target price by 27.5% to 88 HKD, indicating a 15.3% upside from the current stock price [2]
亚盛医药-B(06855):APG-2575国内获批,首款国产Bcl-2上市
Soochow Securities· 2025-07-11 13:57
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has received conditional approval from the National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) for its self-developed Bcl-2 selective inhibitor APG-2575, marking it as the first domestically produced Bcl-2 inhibitor to be launched in China [7] - APG-2575 is positioned as a new treatment option for adult patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia/small lymphocytic lymphoma (CLL/SLL) who have previously undergone at least one systemic therapy, including BTK inhibitors [7] - The company expects rapid revenue growth driven by the sales of its drug Aolebatin and potential payments from Takeda, with projected revenues of 5.19 billion, 32.15 billion, and 20.95 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1][7] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to reach 980.65 million yuan in 2024, followed by 519 million yuan in 2025, and then a significant increase to 3,215 million yuan in 2026, before declining to 2,095 million yuan in 2027 [1][8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be (405.43) million yuan in 2024, (726.53) million yuan in 2025, 1,097.79 million yuan in 2026, and (841.66) million yuan in 2027 [1][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be (1.16) yuan in 2024, (2.08) yuan in 2025, 3.15 yuan in 2026, and (2.42) yuan in 2027 [1][8]
一周医药速览(07.07-07.11)
Cai Jing Wang· 2025-07-11 08:29
Group 1 - Jichuan Pharmaceutical's "Children's Constipation Granules" has received a registration application acceptance notice, marking it as the first innovative traditional Chinese medicine specifically for treating pediatric constipation [1] - The product is expected to be the first Class 1 pediatric-specific drug for constipation following the release of the clinical research guidelines in 2024 [1] Group 2 - Innovent Biologics' drug Daberat® has become the first KRAS G12C inhibitor approved in Macau, providing a new targeted therapy for patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer [2] - In a Phase II clinical trial, Daberat® demonstrated an objective response rate (ORR) of 49.1%, a median progression-free survival (PFS) of 9.7 months, and a 12-month overall survival (OS) rate of 54.4% [2] Group 3 - Sinovac Biotech's special shareholders meeting approved the election of 10 new directors proposed by SAIF Partners, who committed to support the company's dividend distribution plan [3] - The new board members aim to work closely with management to restore trading of the company's common stock and enhance long-term shareholder value [3] Group 4 - Ganli Pharmaceutical expects a net profit increase of 100.73% to 114.12% for the first half of 2025, with projected profits between 600 million to 640 million yuan [4] - The company achieved market share expansion through two rounds of insulin procurement, with a significant 32.6% increase in agreement volume during the 2024 procurement [4] Group 5 - Ascentage Pharma's new Bcl-2 inhibitor, Lisangtuo® (APG-2575), has been conditionally approved for marketing in China, becoming the first Bcl-2 inhibitor for chronic lymphocytic leukemia/small lymphocytic lymphoma [5] - This marks Ascentage Pharma's second innovative drug to be approved and enter the commercialization stage [5] Group 6 - United Biomedical's UBT37034 injection has received FDA approval for clinical trials, showing significant weight reduction effects when combined with GLP-1 analogs in preclinical studies [6] - The combination therapy demonstrated superior weight loss effects compared to other investigational drugs [6]
亚盛医药:新型Bcl-2抑制剂利生妥®获批,是公司第二个获批上市、进入商业化阶段的原创新药
Cai Jing Wang· 2025-07-11 02:45
Core Viewpoint - The approval of the novel Bcl-2 inhibitor, Lisatoclax (APG-2575), by the National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) in China marks a significant milestone for Ascentage Pharma, as it becomes the first domestically developed Bcl-2 inhibitor approved for the treatment of chronic lymphocytic leukemia/small lymphocytic lymphoma (CLL/SLL) in China and the second globally [1][2]. Group 1: Product Approval and Significance - Lisatoclax is the first Bcl-2 inhibitor approved in China for CLL/SLL, highlighting its potential in the treatment landscape [2][3]. - The drug is expected to restore normal apoptosis in tumor cells by selectively inhibiting the Bcl-2 protein, offering new treatment options for patients [2][3]. - The approval signifies Ascentage Pharma's commitment to global clinical innovation and represents a key milestone in its journey to enter the global market [2]. Group 2: Clinical Research and Development - Ascentage Pharma is conducting four global Phase III clinical trials for Lisatoclax, targeting various patient groups, including those with previously treated CLL/SLL and newly diagnosed acute myeloid leukemia (AML) [2]. - The ongoing studies include the GLORA study for treated CLL/SLL patients and GLORA-2 for treatment-naive CLL/SLL patients, among others [2]. Group 3: Challenges in Bcl-2 Inhibition - The development of Bcl-2 inhibitors has been challenging due to the complex nature of protein-protein interactions and the need for drugs to penetrate cellular membranes and mitochondrial membranes [3]. - Prior to Lisatoclax, no Bcl-2 inhibitors had been approved for CLL/SLL treatment in China, indicating a significant advancement in addressing this treatment gap [3].
今年医保目录调整工作方案公布;亚盛医药拿下全球第二个Bcl-2抑制剂 | 医药早参
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-07-10 23:21
Group 1 - The National Healthcare Security Administration has released the adjustment plan for the 2025 National Basic Medical Insurance, Maternity Insurance, and Work Injury Insurance drug catalog, which includes a new commercial health insurance innovative drug catalog, potentially accelerating the commercialization of innovative drugs and enhancing investor confidence in the pharmaceutical sector [1] Group 2 - WuXi AppTec expects a net profit of approximately 8.561 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 101.92%, driven by both core business and non-recurring gains, indicating strengthened competitiveness in the global pharmaceutical market [2] Group 3 - As the second Bcl-2 inhibitor approved globally, Ascentage Pharma's "Lisenglitazone" is expected to capture market share quickly, enhancing investor confidence and boosting the company's valuation in the innovative drug sector [3] Group 4 - Federated Pharmaceutical's innovative drug "UBT37034 injection" has received FDA approval for clinical trials targeting overweight or obesity, indicating significant market potential and enhancing the company's competitiveness in the innovative drug field [4] Group 5 - North China Pharmaceutical expects a net profit of approximately 124 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of around 72%, attributed to improved management and operational efficiency, which strengthens investor confidence in the company's future growth [5]
亚盛医药(06855)任命Veet Misra博士为首席财务官 任命黄智为全球企业发展&财务高级副总裁
智通财经网· 2025-07-08 03:58
Core Insights - The appointment of Dr. Veet Misra as Chief Financial Officer and Mr. Huang Zhi as Senior Vice President of Global Corporate Development & Finance marks a significant step for Ascentage Pharma in its global expansion efforts [1][2] - The company aims to enhance its influence in the global capital markets and improve corporate governance through the expertise of the new executives [1][3] Group 1: Executive Appointments - Dr. Veet Misra has over 20 years of investment banking experience, previously serving as Managing Director at Cantor Fitzgerald, focusing on the biopharmaceutical sector [2] - Mr. Huang Zhi brings over 20 years of multinational corporate management experience, having served as CFO for BeiGene in the Greater China and Asia-Pacific regions [3] Group 2: Strategic Goals - The company is positioned as a leader in the field of apoptosis-targeted therapies and aims to leverage its dual listing in Hong Kong and the U.S. to enhance its global presence [1][2] - The new executives are expected to accelerate the global development of the company's innovative pipeline and improve resource integration for better commercial outcomes [2][3]
港股午评|恒生指数早盘跌0.96% 恒生生物科技指数逆市大涨
智通财经网· 2025-07-03 04:07
Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.96%, down 232 points, closing at 23,989 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 1.20% [1] - The Hong Kong stock market saw a trading volume of HKD 130.6 billion in the morning session [1] Group 2: Pharmaceutical Sector - The National Healthcare Security Administration and the National Health Commission released measures to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs, indicating that innovative drugs remain a key investment theme [1] - The Hang Seng Biotechnology Index surged by 2.79% [1] - Ascentage Pharma-B (06855) rose by 8%, Kelun-Biotech (06990) increased by 7%, and Zai Lab (09688) gained 5.21% [1] - Kangfang Biotech (09926) saw a rise of over 11% as its first dual-antibody ADC drug AK146D1 entered clinical enrollment [2] - Innovent Biologics (01801) increased by over 6% following the approval of its drug Ma Shidu Peptide for commercialization [3] - CStone Pharmaceuticals-B (02616) rose by over 11% after disclosing two dual-specific antibody drug targets, CS2013 and CS2015 [4] - Sihuan Pharmaceutical (02096) gained 4.43% after its new generation anti-VEGF monoclonal antibody "Suvetizumab" was approved for market [5] Group 3: Other Sectors - Gaming stocks continued to rise, with Macau's June gaming revenue exceeding expectations, and Citigroup predicts growth momentum will continue in the second half of the year [5] - MGM China (02282) increased by 2.6%, and Melco International Development (00200) rose by 1.75% [5] - Wheelock Properties (01997) gained 7.32% as Hong Kong's retail sales value rebounded in May, leading Morgan Stanley to upgrade the company's rating [5] - Global New Material International (06616) rose by over 5% as the acquisition of Merck's surface solutions business is nearing completion [6] - Giant Star Legend (06683) increased by over 3% after its subsidiary invested USD 8 million in the Starlight New Economy Industry Fund [7] - Kingsoft (03888) fell nearly 7% as its new game "Unrestricted Machine" entered public testing, with market attention on its performance [8]
亚盛医药-B(06855):lisaftoclax展示出克服维奈克拉耐药的潜力,多项研究亮相EHA年会
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Ascentage Pharma with a target price of HKD 84.60, up from a previous target of HKD 53.10 [2][30]. Core Insights - Lisaftoclax has demonstrated potential to overcome resistance to venetoclax in patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS), showcasing promising efficacy and safety data [7][23]. - The report highlights the significant clinical data presented at the ASCO 2025 meeting, marking the first international study demonstrating a novel Bcl-2 inhibitor overcoming venetoclax resistance [23][26]. - The company is actively progressing in global registration studies for high-risk MDS and first-line AML, enhancing the potential for out-licensing opportunities [26][30]. Financial Summary - The company's market capitalization is HKD 25.19 billion (USD 3.21 billion) with a current share price of HKD 72.30 [2]. - Revenue projections for FY25-27 are RMB 570 million, RMB 2.99 billion, and RMB 2.80 billion, respectively, with net profit estimates of RMB -840 million, RMB 1.25 billion, and RMB 910 million [29][30]. - The gross profit margin is expected to remain high, with estimates of 90.1% in FY25 and 98.1% in FY26 [14]. Clinical Data Highlights - In a study of 28 relapsed/refractory AML patients with prior venetoclax resistance, the overall response rate (ORR) was 31.8%, with 22.8% achieving complete remission [4][17]. - For newly diagnosed AML patients, the ORR was 83.3%, with 33.3% achieving complete remission [18]. - In MDS/CMML patients, the ORR was 80% for treatment-naïve patients and 50% for relapsed/refractory patients, indicating strong efficacy [19][25]. Valuation - The report utilizes a risk-adjusted discounted cash flow (DCF) model, with a WACC of 10.0% and a terminal growth rate of 3.5%, leading to a revised target price of HKD 84.60 per share [30].
港股创新药板块多数走低,晶泰控股(02228.HK)跌超4%,亚盛医药(06855.HK)跌超3%,药明康德(02359.HK)、四环医药(00460.HK)等跟跌。
news flash· 2025-06-23 02:51
Group 1 - The Hong Kong innovative drug sector experienced a decline, with several companies showing significant drops in stock prices [1] - Crystal Technology Holdings (02228.HK) fell over 4%, indicating a notable decrease in investor confidence [1] - Ascentage Pharma (06855.HK) also saw a decline of more than 3%, alongside other companies like WuXi AppTec (02359.HK) and Sihuan Pharmaceutical (00460.HK) which followed suit [1]