Group 1 - The innovative drug sector is experiencing a strong rally, with significant stock price increases for companies such as Lepu Biopharma-B (up 11.15%), CanSino Biologics (up 9.92%), and others [1] - Recent favorable news for the innovative drug industry includes the initiation of the 11th batch of national drug centralized procurement, which will not include innovative drugs, focusing instead on mature "old drugs" [1] - The National Healthcare Security Administration and the National Health Commission have issued measures to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs, including 16 specific initiatives across R&D support, medical insurance access, and clinical application [1] Group 2 - According to Zhongyou Securities, the innovative drug sector is expected to continue its positive trend due to overseas large-scale business development (BD) expectations and supportive policy documents [2] - The core driving force behind the current Hong Kong stock market's innovative drug rally is value reassessment, with current valuations still considered attractive [2] - Domestic capital has been increasing its positions through the Hong Kong Stock Connect, while foreign capital remains at a low position in innovative drugs, indicating a preference for fundamentally solid and cost-effective stocks [2]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a strong rally, with the China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Pharmaceutical and Health Comprehensive Index (930965) rising by 1.50% as of July 16, 2025, driven by significant gains in individual stocks such as Lijun Pharmaceutical (01513) up 11.16% and Green Leaf Pharmaceutical (02186) up 8.55% [1][2] - The introduction of a commercial health insurance innovative drug directory by the National Healthcare Security Administration on July 11, 2025, marks a significant development, allowing for the inclusion of high-innovation drugs that exceed basic insurance coverage [1][2] - The first innovative drug directory involving commercial insurance is expected to be launched within 2025, potentially creating a more favorable pricing environment compared to traditional medical insurance negotiations [2] Industry Summary - The Hong Kong Medical ETF (513700) has seen a 1.72% increase, marking its fourth consecutive rise, with the latest price reported at 0.65 yuan [1] - The index reflects the performance of 50 liquid and large-cap healthcare companies within the Hong Kong Stock Connect, with the top ten weighted stocks accounting for 59.44% of the index [2] - The commercial health insurance sector is anticipated to experience significant growth, with potential for premium and innovative drug payment scales to increase by several multiples in the long term [2]

Core Insights - The approval of innovative drugs is a significant indicator of the new productive forces in the biopharmaceutical industry, with Suzhou Industrial Park accounting for approximately 20% of the new innovative drugs approved in China this year [1][3]. Group 1: Drug Approvals - As of July 10, 2023, Ascentage Pharma's new Bcl-2 selective inhibitor, Lisatoclax, received approval for treating adult patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia/small lymphocytic lymphoma who have undergone prior systemic therapy [1]. - On July 8, 2023, Suzhou Wangshan Wangshui Biopharmaceutical Co., Ltd. and the Shanghai Institute of Materia Medica collaborated to launch a new drug, Semaglutide, for the treatment of erectile dysfunction [1]. - On June 27, 2023, Innovent Biologics' injection, Ma Shidu, was approved for long-term weight management in adults with obesity or overweight, being the first dual receptor agonist for weight loss globally [1]. - On May 29, 2023, the injection of Trastuzumab deruxtecan was approved for treating adult patients with HER2-mutant non-small cell lung cancer who have received prior systemic therapy, marking it as the first antibody-drug conjugate for this indication in China [2]. - On the same day, BeiGene's bispecific antibody, Zhenidamab, was approved for patients with HER2-positive advanced biliary tract cancer, providing a new treatment option [2]. - On January 10, 2023, the approval of the long-acting PCSK9 monoclonal antibody, Rucaparib, was granted for treating high cholesterol levels [2]. Group 2: Industry Development - Since 2006, Suzhou Industrial Park has focused on the biopharmaceutical and health industry, attracting over 2,000 related enterprises, with a projected output value of 165.5 billion yuan by 2024 [3]. - The park has implemented a targeted investment strategy, introducing approximately 300 biopharmaceutical and health projects annually over the past three years [3]. - In May 2023, Suzhou Industrial Park announced an action plan to accelerate the growth of the biopharmaceutical and health industry, aiming to develop over five leading enterprises with international competitiveness and achieve significant sales milestones by 2027 [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Ascentage Pharma-B (06855), has entered into a placement and subscription agreement to issue up to 22 million shares at a price of HKD 68.60 per share, which represents a discount to the market price, aiming to raise approximately HKD 15.09 billion for further commercialization and development of its core products [1][2][3] Group 1: Placement and Subscription Details - The placement price of HKD 68.60 per share is approximately 8.17% lower than the closing price of HKD 74.70 on the date of the agreement [2] - The maximum number of shares to be sold represents about 6.29% of the company's existing issued share capital as of the announcement date [1] - The expected net proceeds from the subscription are estimated to be around HKD 14.93 billion, with a net price per share of approximately HKD 67.84 [2] Group 2: Use of Proceeds - Approximately 40% of the net proceeds will be allocated for commercialization efforts, including expanding coverage and improving patient access [3] - About 35% will be used for global clinical development to advance the company's core pipeline products [3] - The remaining 25% will be directed towards infrastructure and operational funding to strengthen global operations [3]

Macro Strategy - The impact of real estate on China's economy has significantly weakened, with a projected GDP contribution from the real estate sector of approximately 13 trillion yuan in 2024, accounting for 9.6% of total GDP, down from 16.9% in 2016 [8][9] - Despite negative growth in real estate investment and sales, there is an expectation of stabilization in the market, driven by policies such as special bonds for purchasing existing properties [8][9] Fixed Income - The expected listing price range for the China General Nuclear Power Corporation's convertible bond is between 126.83 and 140.94 yuan, with a subscription rate of 0.0140% [10][11] - The bond has a total issuance scale of 4.9 billion yuan, with a credit rating of AAA and a yield to maturity of 1.66% [10][11] Industry Analysis Jerry Holdings - Jerry Holdings has secured a contract for a natural gas booster station project in Algeria worth approximately 8.5 billion USD, enhancing its presence in the North African oil and gas market [12][14] - The company maintains a profit forecast of 3.03 billion yuan for 2025, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 12, 10, and 9 for 2025-2027 [12][14] Ascentage Pharma - Ascentage Pharma's APG-2575 has received conditional approval in China, marking it as the first domestic Bcl-2 inhibitor, with revenue forecasts of 519 million, 3.215 billion, and 2.095 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [15][16] - The drug is expected to provide a new treatment option for patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia/small lymphocytic lymphoma [15][16] Chongqing Department Store - The company reported a 9% year-on-year increase in net profit for H1 2025, despite a 10.45% decline in revenue, primarily due to a shift towards new energy vehicles [5][16] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 is maintained at 1.41 billion, 1.50 billion, and 1.58 billion yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 9, 8, and 8 [5][16] Huace Testing - Huace Testing anticipates a year-on-year net profit growth of 8% to 10% for Q2 2025, driven by traditional business innovations and expansion into new markets [17][18] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 is set at 1.06 billion, 1.17 billion, and 1.31 billion yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 20, 18, and 16 [17][18] Changjiang Power - The company aims to achieve a power generation target of 300 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025, with profit forecasts of 35.028 billion, 36.715 billion, and 37.087 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [19][20] - The current price-to-earnings ratio is 20.9, 19.9, and 19.7, with a projected dividend yield of 3.35% [19][20]

Company Update - The company announced that its self-developed Bcl-2 selective inhibitor, APG-2575 (also known as Lisangtuo), received conditional approval from the National Medical Products Administration of China for the treatment of adult patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia/small lymphocytic lymphoma (CLL/SLL) who have previously undergone at least one systemic therapy including a Bruton tyrosine kinase (BTK) inhibitor [1] - Lisangtuo is the first Bcl-2 inhibitor approved in China for the treatment of CLL/SLL and the second globally, following AbbVie's venetoclax [1] Clinical Value and Research - The approval of Lisangtuo is based on a pivotal Phase II clinical study (APG2575CC201) that demonstrated an overall response rate (ORR) meeting the predefined endpoint for patients who failed BTK inhibitors and/or immunochemotherapy, with a favorable safety profile [2] - The drug has been included in the "CSCO Lymphoma Diagnosis and Treatment Guidelines 2025" as of April 2025 [2] - The company is conducting four global Phase III clinical studies to further explore Lisangtuo's indications, including studies for treated CLL/SLL patients and newly diagnosed acute myeloid leukemia (AML) patients [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its net profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 at a loss of 1.09 billion yuan and 320 million yuan, respectively [2] - Given the approval of Lisangtuo and the potential for global indication expansion, the company maintains an outperform rating and raises the target price by 27.5% to 88 HKD, indicating a 15.3% upside from the current stock price [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has received conditional approval from the National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) for its self-developed Bcl-2 selective inhibitor APG-2575, marking it as the first domestically produced Bcl-2 inhibitor to be launched in China [7] - APG-2575 is positioned as a new treatment option for adult patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia/small lymphocytic lymphoma (CLL/SLL) who have previously undergone at least one systemic therapy, including BTK inhibitors [7] - The company expects rapid revenue growth driven by the sales of its drug Aolebatin and potential payments from Takeda, with projected revenues of 5.19 billion, 32.15 billion, and 20.95 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1][7] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to reach 980.65 million yuan in 2024, followed by 519 million yuan in 2025, and then a significant increase to 3,215 million yuan in 2026, before declining to 2,095 million yuan in 2027 [1][8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be (405.43) million yuan in 2024, (726.53) million yuan in 2025, 1,097.79 million yuan in 2026, and (841.66) million yuan in 2027 [1][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be (1.16) yuan in 2024, (2.08) yuan in 2025, 3.15 yuan in 2026, and (2.42) yuan in 2027 [1][8]

Group 1 - Jichuan Pharmaceutical's "Children's Constipation Granules" has received a registration application acceptance notice, marking it as the first innovative traditional Chinese medicine specifically for treating pediatric constipation [1] - The product is expected to be the first Class 1 pediatric-specific drug for constipation following the release of the clinical research guidelines in 2024 [1] Group 2 - Innovent Biologics' drug Daberat® has become the first KRAS G12C inhibitor approved in Macau, providing a new targeted therapy for patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer [2] - In a Phase II clinical trial, Daberat® demonstrated an objective response rate (ORR) of 49.1%, a median progression-free survival (PFS) of 9.7 months, and a 12-month overall survival (OS) rate of 54.4% [2] Group 3 - Sinovac Biotech's special shareholders meeting approved the election of 10 new directors proposed by SAIF Partners, who committed to support the company's dividend distribution plan [3] - The new board members aim to work closely with management to restore trading of the company's common stock and enhance long-term shareholder value [3] Group 4 - Ganli Pharmaceutical expects a net profit increase of 100.73% to 114.12% for the first half of 2025, with projected profits between 600 million to 640 million yuan [4] - The company achieved market share expansion through two rounds of insulin procurement, with a significant 32.6% increase in agreement volume during the 2024 procurement [4] Group 5 - Ascentage Pharma's new Bcl-2 inhibitor, Lisangtuo® (APG-2575), has been conditionally approved for marketing in China, becoming the first Bcl-2 inhibitor for chronic lymphocytic leukemia/small lymphocytic lymphoma [5] - This marks Ascentage Pharma's second innovative drug to be approved and enter the commercialization stage [5] Group 6 - United Biomedical's UBT37034 injection has received FDA approval for clinical trials, showing significant weight reduction effects when combined with GLP-1 analogs in preclinical studies [6] - The combination therapy demonstrated superior weight loss effects compared to other investigational drugs [6]

Core Viewpoint - The approval of the novel Bcl-2 inhibitor, Lisatoclax (APG-2575), by the National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) in China marks a significant milestone for Ascentage Pharma, as it becomes the first domestically developed Bcl-2 inhibitor approved for the treatment of chronic lymphocytic leukemia/small lymphocytic lymphoma (CLL/SLL) in China and the second globally [1][2]. Group 1: Product Approval and Significance - Lisatoclax is the first Bcl-2 inhibitor approved in China for CLL/SLL, highlighting its potential in the treatment landscape [2][3]. - The drug is expected to restore normal apoptosis in tumor cells by selectively inhibiting the Bcl-2 protein, offering new treatment options for patients [2][3]. - The approval signifies Ascentage Pharma's commitment to global clinical innovation and represents a key milestone in its journey to enter the global market [2]. Group 2: Clinical Research and Development - Ascentage Pharma is conducting four global Phase III clinical trials for Lisatoclax, targeting various patient groups, including those with previously treated CLL/SLL and newly diagnosed acute myeloid leukemia (AML) [2]. - The ongoing studies include the GLORA study for treated CLL/SLL patients and GLORA-2 for treatment-naive CLL/SLL patients, among others [2]. Group 3: Challenges in Bcl-2 Inhibition - The development of Bcl-2 inhibitors has been challenging due to the complex nature of protein-protein interactions and the need for drugs to penetrate cellular membranes and mitochondrial membranes [3]. - Prior to Lisatoclax, no Bcl-2 inhibitors had been approved for CLL/SLL treatment in China, indicating a significant advancement in addressing this treatment gap [3].

Group 1 - The National Healthcare Security Administration has released the adjustment plan for the 2025 National Basic Medical Insurance, Maternity Insurance, and Work Injury Insurance drug catalog, which includes a new commercial health insurance innovative drug catalog, potentially accelerating the commercialization of innovative drugs and enhancing investor confidence in the pharmaceutical sector [1] Group 2 - WuXi AppTec expects a net profit of approximately 8.561 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 101.92%, driven by both core business and non-recurring gains, indicating strengthened competitiveness in the global pharmaceutical market [2] Group 3 - As the second Bcl-2 inhibitor approved globally, Ascentage Pharma's "Lisenglitazone" is expected to capture market share quickly, enhancing investor confidence and boosting the company's valuation in the innovative drug sector [3] Group 4 - Federated Pharmaceutical's innovative drug "UBT37034 injection" has received FDA approval for clinical trials targeting overweight or obesity, indicating significant market potential and enhancing the company's competitiveness in the innovative drug field [4] Group 5 - North China Pharmaceutical expects a net profit of approximately 124 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of around 72%, attributed to improved management and operational efficiency, which strengthens investor confidence in the company's future growth [5]