Core Viewpoint - Changfei Optical Fiber and Cable (06869) has seen a decline of over 30% from its September peak of 65 HKD, with a current price of 45.06 HKD, reflecting market concerns about its future profitability due to recent bidding results from China Mobile [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The stock has dropped over 4%, with a trading volume of 676 million HKD [1] - The current price is reported at 45.06 HKD, down 3.92% [1] Group 2: Analyst Insights - Nomura's report indicates that the rise in Changfei's stock earlier this year was driven by expectations of AI data centers adopting high-end products like G.654E and hollow fiber [1] - The report highlights a decline in market share and average selling prices for Changfei, as indicated by recent fiber optic bidding results from China Mobile, which may pressure profitability starting from Q3 of this year [1] - Nomura has downgraded its rating from "Buy" to "Neutral," while significantly raising the target price from 18.6 HKD to 52 HKD [1]

Group 1 - The company, Zhao Chi Co., has stated that as of October 9, it has not reached any cooperation plans with Changfei Fiber for factory construction [2]

Core Insights - The article highlights the top and bottom AH premium rates for various stocks as of October 9, with Northeast Electric (00042) leading at a premium of 743.75% [1][2]. AH Premium Rate Rankings - The top three stocks with the highest AH premium rates are: - Northeast Electric (00042): 743.75% - Andeli Juice (02218): 235.25% - Zhejiang Shibao (01057): 227.36% [1][2] - The bottom three stocks with the lowest AH premium rates are: - Contemporary Amperex Technology (03750): -16.12% - Heng Rui Medicine (01276): -2.39% - China Merchants Bank (03968): 3.49% [1][2] Deviation Values - The stocks with the highest deviation values are: - Changfei Optical Fiber (06869): 28.93% - Zhejiang Shibao (01057): 12.23% - Red Star Macalline (01528): 11.20% [1][2] - The stocks with the lowest deviation values are: - Northeast Electric (00042): -72.24% - Shanghai Electric (02727): -54.73% - Dazhong Public Utilities (01635): -29.80% [1][2]

Core Insights - The report highlights changes in the Hong Kong Stock Connect holdings, indicating which companies saw the largest increases and decreases in ownership percentages over recent trading days [1][2][3] Summary by Category Recent Changes in Holdings - The companies with the largest increases in Hong Kong Stock Connect holdings include: - Canggang Railway (02169) with an increase of 10.05% to a holding of 43.11% - Dazhong Public Utilities (01635) with an increase of 7.35% to a holding of 67.37% - NetDragon (00777) with an increase of 3.55% to a holding of 12.78% [1][3] - The companies with the largest decreases in Hong Kong Stock Connect holdings include: - Southern Hang Seng Technology (03033) with a decrease of 0.60% to a holding of 60.24% - Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) with a decrease of 0.03% to a holding of 24.12% - Tongcheng Travel (00780) with a decrease of 0.03% to a holding of 12.34% [1][2] Top 20 Holdings Changes - The top 20 companies with the largest increases in ownership percentages include: - Hang Seng China Enterprises (02828) with an increase of 0.02% to a holding of 1.17% - Huaxia Hang Seng Technology (03088) with an increase of 0.01% to a holding of 20.15% - Power Assets Holdings (00006) with no change, holding at 7.08% [2][3] - The top 20 companies with the largest decreases in ownership percentages include: - Southern Hang Seng Technology (03033) with a decrease of 0.60% to a holding of 60.24% - Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) with a decrease of 0.03% to a holding of 24.12% - Tongcheng Travel (00780) with a decrease of 0.03% to a holding of 12.34% [2][3] 5-Day and 20-Day Trends - Over the last 5 trading days, the companies with the largest increases in ownership percentages include: - Canggang Railway (02169) with an increase of 10.05% - Dazhong Public Utilities (01635) with an increase of 7.35% - NetDragon (00777) with an increase of 3.55% [3][4] - Over the last 20 trading days, the companies with the largest increases in ownership percentages include: - Dazhong Public Utilities (01635) with an increase of 34.12% - Canggang Railway (02169) with an increase of 31.45% - Shankou Holdings (00412) with an increase of 13.53% [4]

Core Insights - The top three companies by Hong Kong Stock Connect holding ratios are Green Power Environmental (70.12%), China Telecom (69.73%), and COSCO Shipping Energy (69.52%) [1][2] - Alibaba-W, Tracker Fund of Hong Kong, and Tencent Holdings saw the largest increases in holding amounts over the last five trading days, with increases of +36.52 billion, +14.31 billion, and +11.54 billion respectively [1][2] - The largest decreases in holding amounts were observed in China Mobile (-6.21 billion), China Telecom (-3.50 billion), and China Construction Bank (-3.35 billion) [1][3] Group 1: Hong Kong Stock Connect Holding Ratios - Green Power Environmental (01330) has a holding ratio of 70.12% with 284 million shares [2] - China Telecom (00728) has a holding ratio of 69.73% with 9.678 billion shares [2] - COSCO Shipping Energy (01138) has a holding ratio of 69.52% with 901 million shares [2] Group 2: Recent Increases in Holdings - Alibaba-W (09988) increased by +36.52 billion with a change of +20.56 million shares [2] - Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800) increased by +14.31 billion with a change of +52.11 million shares [2] - Tencent Holdings (00700) increased by +11.54 billion with a change of +1.71 million shares [2] Group 3: Recent Decreases in Holdings - China Mobile (00941) decreased by -6.21 billion with a change of -7.46 million shares [3] - China Telecom (00728) decreased by -3.50 billion with a change of -66.46 million shares [3] - China Construction Bank (00939) decreased by -3.35 billion with a change of -45.96 million shares [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, marking its first coverage [9]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on improving its main business and expanding the application of new optical fiber technologies, driven by the growing demand from data centers and AI construction [4][6]. - Despite facing pressure in the telecom market, the company is seizing structural opportunities by expanding into new applications such as metropolitan area networks and direct connections for computing clusters [5]. - The company is making forward-looking investments in hollow-core optical fibers, which have the potential to become a core technology for next-generation optical networks [6]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 6.384 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.38%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 21.71% to 296 million yuan [4]. - The company’s non-deductible net profit increased by 14.75% to 138 million yuan [4]. - The company is expected to see revenue growth from 14.193 billion yuan in 2025 to 18.008 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS increasing from 1.23 yuan to 2.04 yuan [7][11]. Market Dynamics - The demand for standard single-mode optical fibers in the telecom market is declining, leading to a decrease in average prices [5]. - The company won a significant share of a centralized procurement by China Mobile for G.654.E optical cables, amounting to 3.1386 million core kilometers, which is expected to boost business growth [5]. Future Outlook - The company is positioned to benefit from the ongoing demand for optical fiber products driven by the expansion of data centers and advancements in AI technology [4][9]. - The hollow-core optical fiber technology is anticipated to be a game-changer, with the company making substantial progress in its research and commercialization [6].

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年9月30日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 長飛光纖光纜股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年10月8日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 06869 | 說明 | 長飛光纖光纜 | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 351,566,794 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 351,566,794 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | RMB | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 351,566,794 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 351,566,794 | | 2. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | A | ...

Group 1 - On September 26, the top three stocks with net inflows from southbound funds were Alibaba-W (09988) with 34.60 billion, Yingfu Fund (02800) with 14.02 billion, and Tencent Holdings (00700) with 11.06 billion [1][2] - The top three stocks with net outflows were China Mobile (00941) with -6.35 billion, China Telecom (00728) with -3.59 billion, and China Construction Bank (00939) with -3.38 billion [1][2] - In terms of net inflow ratio, GX Hengsheng Technology (02837) led with 462.02%, followed by Green Power Environmental (01330) with 156.44%, and Anjii Food (02648) with 127.61% [1][2] Group 2 - The top ten stocks with the highest net inflows included Xiaomi Group-W (01810) with 11.00 billion and Huahong Semiconductor (01347) with 8.23 billion [2] - The top ten stocks with the highest net outflows included China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (00386) with -2.16 billion and Changfei Optical Fiber Cable (06869) with -1.53 billion [2] - The net outflow ratios for the top ten stocks included Tianjin Chuangye Environmental Protection (01065) at -123.57% and China Telecom (00728) at -113.73% [3][4]

智通财经APP获悉，截止10月6日收盘，东北电气(00042)、安德利果汁(02218)、浙江世宝(01057)分列 AH溢价率前三位，溢价率分别为815.25%、237.07%、231.95%；宁德时代(03750)、恒瑞医药(01276)、 紫金矿业(02899)分列AH溢价率末三位，溢价率分别为-19.28%、-7.05%、3.16%。其中红星美凯龙 (01528)、浙江世宝(01057)、长飞光纤光缆(06869)的偏离值位居前三，分别为25.18%、21.61%、 19.13%；另外，大众公用(01635)、上海电气(02727)、中芯国际(00981)的偏离值位居后三，分别 为-55.59%、-41.10%、-27.91%。 前十大AH股溢价率排行 前十大AH股偏离值排行 | 股票名称 | H股(港元) | | A股 | 溢价率 | | 偏离值↓ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 红星美凯龙(01528) | 1.300 | 2.8 | | 157.69% | 25.18% | | | 浙江世宝(01057) | 5.070 | 14. ...

智通财经APP获悉，长飞光纤光缆(06869)跌近5%，昨日尾盘曾拉升超10%，截至发稿，跌4.86%，报 49.76港元，成交额1.73亿港元。 另值得注意的是，9月19日，Draka Comteq B.V.通过大宗交易出售长飞光纤光缆3759.53万股H股，占总 股本5%，减持后H股数量为零。截至今年3月底，DrakaComteqB.V.和中国华信邮电科技有限公司并列长 飞光纤第一大股东，持股比例都是23.73%。4月17日至9月19日，Draka Comteq B.V.累计减持长飞光纤H 股近1.8亿股，占公司总股本的23.73%。 消息面上，野村发布研报称，公司的股价自2025年1月以来已上涨295%(同期恒生指数上涨36.9%)，主 要因为市场对人工智能资料中心(AIDC)、G.654E和空芯光纤(HCF)等高端产品的需求强劲。该行表示， 电信市场持续疲软，或会抵消该公司在AI基础设施市场的扩张。中国移动6月的光纤招标表明，市占率 下降和平均售价下降，可能会对长飞光纤光缆2025年第三季盈利造成压力。因此，该行将2025财年收入 及盈利预测下调1%及23%，但将2026-27财年收入和盈利预测分别上 ...