Core Viewpoint - The current market is expected to remain volatile due to global geopolitical conflicts, the US-China technology rivalry, and uncertainties regarding overseas AI investments, leading to a cautious and neutral allocation strategy. However, there is a long-term optimistic outlook on domestic AI computing power, optical modules, 6G industry trends, domestic substitution, self-control, and military industry growth, which could catalyze market opportunities in various sectors [1]. Group 1: Space Infrastructure and Satellite Communication - The space infrastructure competition is accelerating industry development, with the US government emphasizing the importance of maintaining "space superiority" through increased R&D and private sector investment. This sector is seen as a critical area in the US-China rivalry, with the domestic satellite constellation launches and commercial space development expected to expand market size [2]. - The issuance of satellite internet licenses in China marks a significant step towards commercial operation, which is anticipated to drive the entire industry chain towards large-scale acceleration. The development of satellite internet is progressing rapidly, with regular satellite launches expected to enhance communication capacity and reduce latency [2]. Group 2: Hollow Core Fiber and AI Applications - The demand for hollow core fibers is expected to benefit from AI catalysis, as these fibers offer low latency, wide spectrum, low loss, and low nonlinearity, addressing the physical limitations of traditional fibers. The current phase is critical for the rapid iteration and evolution of hollow core fibers, which are still in the early stages of commercialization [3]. - The unique characteristics of hollow core fibers are projected to meet the growing demands of AI large model applications, highlighting their potential value in internal interconnections, metropolitan data center interconnections, and wide-area interconnections. Beneficiary companies include Yangtze Optical Fibre (601869), Hengtong Optic-Electric (600487), FiberHome Technologies (600498), and Zhongtian Technology (600522) [3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Beneficiary stocks in satellite communication and satellite IoT include companies involved in chip and T/R component industries such as Chengchang Technology, Guobo Electronics, Zhenlei Technology, Shanghai Huanxun, and Xinke Mobile. The terminal antenna supply chain includes Chengchang Technology, Tongyu Communication, Guobo Electronics, and Zhaoshengwei (300782) [4]. - Key players in terminal chips and core networks include China Mobile (600941), China Unicom (600050), China Telecom (601728), Haige Communication (002465), Huali Chuantong (300045), and Zhenyou Technology. Testing instrument companies include Kunheng Shunwei and Chuangyuan Xinke [4].

证券研究报告|行业动态报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 21 日 [Table_Title] 太空新基建竞赛推动产业加速，空心光纤产业 迭代演进关键窗口期 [Table_Title2] 通信行业 [Table_Summary] 1、太空新基建竞赛推动产业加速 根据新华社资讯，美国总统特朗普 12 月 18 日签署行政令，要求 采取加大研发和吸引私营部门投资等举措，确保美国的"太空优 势"。 我们认为，太空是下一个全球尤其是中美博弈关键领域之一。伴 随国内星座加速发射，以及商业航天加速发展与卫星物联网应用 展开商用试验，相关市场规模有望加速扩大。卫星网络作为 6G 网络建设基础，当前时点符合 6G 标准及建设时间。自 8 月以来 相关部门表示会发放卫星互联网牌照，我国卫星互联网商业运营 迈出关键的第一步，牌照的发放有望推动全产业链向规模化加速 迈进。伴随可回收火箭预研阶段开启首个发射项目，商业航天进 入加速落地阶段，卫星互联网发展势头迅猛，星座常态化发射， 实现通信容量增大，时延降低，同时有望看到手机宽带直连卫星 与低轨卫星网联智能驾驶系统的相关应用快速落地。卫星通信、 卫星物联网相关受益 ...

近年来，光纤光缆行业发生了哪些显著变化？ 光纤光缆行业在近年来经历了一些显著的变化。首先，中国移动在 2025 年五 六月份的招标中，价格表现较为疲软，这导致市场对普通光纤（如 G652D） 的认知停留在景气度低、产能利用率低和价格下行周期的阶段。然而，人工智 展望 2026 年，海外需求强劲，AI 技术带动非运营商市场增长，推动价 格上涨。截至 10 月出口同比增长 100%-150%。光棒短期内不会产能 过剩，扩产需一年以上，新进入厂商需一年半以上。目前全球光纤光缆 需求约为 5-6 亿芯公里，中国占一半以上，国内主要厂商具备灵活扩产 能力，整体产能处于紧平衡状态。 多模产品维持较高毛利率，如 OM4、OM5 售价可达四五百元每芯公里， 毛利率 30%以上。800G 多模模块对应大量多模光纤需求。华为等公司 仍以多模为主，单模产品方面，各头部厂商指引清晰，也有较好的预期。 多模和单模式市场均有良好前景，各自利润率表现也较为可观。 AI 技术显著拉动高性能光纤光缆需求，北美地区需求提升康宁、藤仓等 公司产能利用率，并积极扩产。欧洲、东南亚等市场需求由国内厂商承 担。AI 相关应用，如数据中心内部 GPU 迭 ...

Core Viewpoint - Changfei Fiber Optics reported a decline in net profit despite revenue growth, indicating potential challenges in profitability despite positive revenue trends [1] Financial Performance - In Q3, Changfei Fiber achieved revenue of 3.891 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.27% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 was 174 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.89% [1] - For the first three quarters, total revenue reached 10.275 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.18% year-on-year growth [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters was 470 million yuan, down 18.02% year-on-year [1] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - UBS noted that current market sentiment reflects optimism regarding the growth potential of Changfei's high-margin data communication business and initial positive expectations for hollow fiber [1] - The firm anticipates moderate upward potential in the near term, with hollow fiber expected to mature over the next 2-3 years, contributing significantly to revenue [1] - However, the short-term impact on profitability from hollow fiber remains limited [1]

Summary of Hengtong Optic-Electric Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Hengtong Optic-Electric - **Industry**: Optical Fiber and Communication, Marine Energy, Smart Grid, Industrial New Energy Key Financial Performance - **Revenue Growth**: Total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 496.21 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 17.03% [3] - **Net Profit**: Net profit attributable to shareholders was 23.76 billion CNY, up 2.64% year-on-year [3] - **Third Quarter Performance**: In Q3 2025, revenue was 176 billion CNY, a growth of 11.32% year-on-year; net profit was 7.63 billion CNY, increasing by 8.1% [3] Business Segment Performance - **Revenue Contribution**: - Optical Communication: 10% - Smart Grid: 40% - Marine Energy Communication: 10% - Industrial New Energy: 12% [4][22] - **Order Backlog**: Total orders in the energy sector exceeded 200 billion CNY, with marine energy orders around 70 billion CNY and marine communication orders approximately 75 billion CNY [4][14] Technological Advancements - **Specialty Fiber Development**: Significant breakthroughs in specialty fibers, including the launch of super-selected fibers, multi-core fibers, multi-mode fibers, and hollow fibers, with the latter achieving international advanced levels [2][6] - **AI and Data Center Demand**: Anticipated growth in demand for multi-mode fibers and hollow fibers driven by AI technology and data centers [4][34] Marine Communication and Energy - **Market Outlook**: The marine communication sector is expected to grow significantly due to global marine development and increasing computational power demands [2][8] - **Recent Projects**: Awarded a government contract for a 500 kV DC submarine cable project, representing the highest level of offshore wind power transmission technology [12][15] Future Development Plans - **Expansion Projects**: Construction of an AI advanced specialty materials R&D center, expected to be completed by early 2026, aimed at enhancing production capacity for low-loss hollow and high-performance specialty products [7] - **International Market Strategy**: Focus on expanding in Europe and other regions, with ongoing projects in Southern and Northern Europe [20] Profitability and Margin Expectations - **Gross Margin Trends**: Overall gross margin is influenced by the copper conductor business, but key segments like optical communication and smart grid are showing improved profitability [27] - **Marine Energy and Communication Margins**: Both sectors maintain a gross margin of around 30% [30][31] Conclusion - **Strategic Focus**: Hengtong Optic-Electric aims to strengthen its position in communication and energy sectors, leveraging technological advancements and expanding its market presence to capitalize on growth opportunities in marine energy and smart grid solutions [35]

Summary of Zhongtian Technology Conference Call Industry Overview - The demand for optical fibers and cables is significantly driven by the proliferation of AI technology, leading to a new cycle of economic upturn and price increases. Emerging technologies like hollow fibers provide further growth opportunities, with ordinary fiber prices recovering compared to the first half of the year [2][3][8]. - Offshore wind power is identified as a core energy support for AI infrastructure, with China's deep-sea planning targeting over 6,000 GW, indicating rapid growth in the offshore wind power industry expected within the next five years, with an industry turning point anticipated in Q2 or Q3 of 2025 [2][4]. Company Performance - Zhongtian Technology reported a revenue of 38 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of approximately 10%, with a net profit of 2.338 billion yuan, showing slight growth. The third quarter's operating cash flow was 2.3 billion yuan, indicating improved operational quality [2][5]. - The energy segment has over 30 billion yuan in orders, with the marine segment accounting for about 13 billion yuan, primarily driven by 500 kV submarine cable orders. High-voltage products constitute approximately 60-70% of the order volume, with international orders exceeding 30% [2][6]. Key Insights - The impact of AI technology on the optical fiber and cable industry is substantial, with significant demand increases noted, such as a 20% rise in U.S. optical fiber demand due to a $5 billion order from Lumen [3]. - The marine segment's order structure shows a strong focus on high-voltage products, with a notable margin of around 50% for 500 kV projects, which significantly supports overall gross margins [6][13]. - The company is actively engaged in the development of hollow fiber technology, with expectations for significant revenue growth in the data center business in the coming year [4][9]. Financial Metrics - The gross margin for different voltage levels shows clear stratification: 25% for 35 kV, 35-40% for 220 kV, over 40% for 330 kV, and around 50% for 500 kV projects, indicating that high-voltage project execution directly aids overall gross margin [13]. - The company’s third-quarter net profit attributable to shareholders was 770 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9%, while total net profit for the first three quarters was 2.338 billion yuan, showing slight growth [5]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a concentrated confirmation cycle for high-voltage products in 2026, with about 10 billion yuan of the 13 billion yuan in orders expected to be executed and confirmed next year [12]. - Zhongtian Technology is focusing on optimizing its R&D system and reallocating market resources towards data centers and AI-related fields, with expectations for the optical module revenue to reach a scale of 1 billion yuan next year [4][24]. - The company has a positive outlook on future growth, with strong order backlogs and high-margin projects expected to enhance profitability, alongside significant advancements in AI technology applications [26]. Additional Considerations - The company is also exploring international market expansion for hollow fiber technology, with ongoing trials and collaborations with major internet companies [14][19]. - The pricing trends for traditional optical fibers have shown stability, with expectations for a rebound in prices driven by market demand from the second half of this year into 2026 [20][21]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the company's performance, industry dynamics, and future growth prospects.

Core Viewpoint - Changfei Fiber Optics has seen a significant decline in stock price, dropping over 30% from its September peak of 65 HKD, with a current price of 45.06 HKD, reflecting market concerns about its future profitability [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - The stock of Changfei Fiber Optics (601869) and its subsidiary Changxin Bochuang (300548) has experienced a drop of over 4%, with a trading volume of 6.76 billion HKD [1] - The current stock price is reported at 45.06 HKD, down 3.92% at the time of reporting [1] Group 2: Market Expectations - Nomura's research indicates that the rise in Changfei's stock earlier this year was driven by market expectations of increased demand for high-end products like G.654E fiber and hollow fiber due to AI data centers [1] - The firm believes that the recent tender results from China Mobile show a decline in Changfei's market share and average selling price, which may pressure profitability starting from Q3 of this year [1] Group 3: Analyst Rating Changes - Nomura has downgraded its rating on Changfei from "Buy" to "Neutral," suggesting that the current stock price reflects the positive factors associated with AI business expansion [1] - The target price has been significantly adjusted from 18.6 HKD to 52 HKD, indicating a more cautious outlook despite the upward revision [1]

Core Viewpoint - Changfei Optical Fiber and Cable (06869) has seen a decline of over 30% from its September peak of 65 HKD, with a current price of 45.06 HKD, reflecting market concerns about its future profitability due to recent bidding results from China Mobile [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The stock has dropped over 4%, with a trading volume of 676 million HKD [1] - The current price is reported at 45.06 HKD, down 3.92% [1] Group 2: Analyst Insights - Nomura's report indicates that the rise in Changfei's stock earlier this year was driven by expectations of AI data centers adopting high-end products like G.654E and hollow fiber [1] - The report highlights a decline in market share and average selling prices for Changfei, as indicated by recent fiber optic bidding results from China Mobile, which may pressure profitability starting from Q3 of this year [1] - Nomura has downgraded its rating from "Buy" to "Neutral," while significantly raising the target price from 18.6 HKD to 52 HKD [1]

Summary of Hengtong Optic-Electric Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Hengtong Optic-Electric - **Focus Areas**: Data centers, high-speed interconnects, national trunk networks, and energy networks Key Points Industry and Market Trends - **Global Digitalization**: Accelerating digitalization is driving rapid growth in fiber optic demand, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4% from 2023 to 2027, leading to over 650 million kilometers of new installations by 2027 [3][13] - **AI Computing Growth**: The global AI computing scale is expected to grow by over 50% in the next five years, significantly increasing the demand for low-loss fibers such as multimode and hollow-core fibers [3][9] - **Market Size Projections**: The global market for communication fibers is anticipated to reach $11.18 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 9.3% [3][13] Company Performance - **Financial Results**: For the first half of 2025, Hengtong Optic-Electric reported revenues of 32.049 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.42%, and a net profit of 1.903 billion yuan, up 0.24% [2][7] - **Q2 Performance**: In Q2 2025, revenues reached 18.78 billion yuan, a 26.64% year-on-year increase and a 41.55% quarter-on-quarter increase; however, net profit decreased by 3.63% year-on-year but increased by 89.74% quarter-on-quarter [2][8] Technological Advancements - **Product Development**: Hengtong is advancing in high-end product development, focusing on ultra-low-loss fiber and hollow-core fiber technologies, with new production platforms established for these products [3][4] - **New Product Lines**: The company has developed OM4 and OM5 multimode fibers and high-density MPO cables specifically for data center applications [3][18] Energy Network Achievements - **Order Book**: As of mid-2025, Hengtong has secured approximately 20 billion yuan in orders within the energy interconnection sector, covering a full industry chain from product development to engineering operations [2][5] - **Comprehensive Solutions**: The company offers complete solutions for offshore wind power and marine oil and gas systems, including subsea cable manufacturing and installation [5] Global Expansion Efforts - **International Presence**: Hengtong has expanded its global footprint through acquisitions, including a 51% stake in Huawei Marine in 2020 and the acquisition of PT BOX in 2023, covering over 150 countries with 12 overseas production bases and more than 40 technical service companies [2][6][20] Future Plans - **AI Fiber Material Center**: The company is set to complete an AI advanced fiber material R&D center by February 2026, focusing on ultra-low-loss hollow fibers and high-performance multimode fibers [3][19] - **New Projects**: Plans include the construction of a 1,100-kilometer PC transoceanic extension segment, enhancing global coverage and positioning the company as a leading provider of information and energy interconnection solutions [3][25] Additional Insights - **Hollow-Core Fiber Applications**: Hollow-core fibers are expected to see increased use in high-frequency trading, distributed computing centers, and underwater interconnects, with the communication fiber market projected to reach $1.05 billion by 2030 [12] - **Market Dynamics**: Major tech companies are significantly increasing their investments in AI infrastructure, with the U.S. tech giants expected to spend over $350 billion this year, further driving demand for data center solutions [9][10] This summary encapsulates the key insights from Hengtong Optic-Electric's conference call, highlighting the company's strategic focus, financial performance, technological advancements, and future growth plans.

Summary of Zhongtian Technology Conference Call Company Overview - Zhongtian Technology reported a revenue of 23.6 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.19% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.568 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 7.38% [2] - The company has a strong order backlog in the energy network sector, amounting to approximately 30.6 billion RMB as of July 31, 2025 [2][5] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, revenue reached 13.84 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.08% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 41.90% [9] - The net profit for Q2 was 940 million RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 14.09% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19.79% [9] - The sales gross margin decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 15.07%, while the net profit margin decreased by 0.12 percentage points to 6.70% [9] Industry and Market Dynamics - The company is positioned to benefit from the global demand for submarine cables driven by offshore wind power projects, with China expected to add 160 GW of offshore wind capacity in the next decade [4][17] - The high-speed copper cable market is projected to expand to 3 billion USD by 2025, with AI data centers and 5G communication as key growth drivers [8] Key Business Segments Energy Network - The energy network segment has a backlog of orders worth approximately 30.6 billion RMB, with marine series orders around 13.3 billion RMB and grid construction orders around 15.5 billion RMB [5] - The marine segment achieved a revenue of 2.896 billion RMB, growing by 37.19% year-on-year, while the grid business generated 9.975 billion RMB, up 11.97% year-on-year [5] Information Communication - Zhongtian Technology has achieved mass production of a full range of 400G optical modules and is actively developing next-generation 1.6T/3.2T optical interconnect technology [2][3] - The company has made significant advancements in hollow fiber technology, establishing a complete R&D system and achieving breakthroughs in multi-layer design for efficient light signal transmission [12] International Expansion - The company is expanding internationally with manufacturing bases in Jiangsu, Guangdong, Shandong, and Zhejiang, and operational centers in Germany and the Middle East [4][18] - Zhongtian Technology has successfully secured several international projects, including high-voltage submarine cable projects in Vietnam and the Middle East [21] Technological Innovations - The company has developed a complete system for underwater optical transmission, integrating core components such as umbilical cables and connectors [22] - Innovations in high-speed copper cables and liquid cooling technology are being pursued to meet the increasing demands of data centers [14] Conclusion - Zhongtian Technology is a leading player in the energy network and communication sectors, with a diversified portfolio in optical communication, marine economy, smart grid, and new energy [27] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on market growth opportunities, supported by its strong financial performance and technological advancements [27]