未平仓空单比（绝对值）较上一次减少最多为远东宏信（03360）、众安在线（06060）、荣昌生物 （09995），分别减少-1.62%、-1.55%、-1.32%。 前10大未平仓空仓比 | 股票名称 | 前次空仓数 | 本次空仓数 | 最新空仓比↓ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 药明康德(02359) | 8717.47 万股 | 8734.54 万股 | 22.57% | | 宁德时代(03750) | 2631.99 万股 | 2768.85 万股 | 17.76% | | 中远海控(01919) | 4.06 亿股 | 4.11 亿股 | 14.27% | | 赣锋锂业(01772) | 5001.51 万股 | 5166.20 万股 | 12.80% | | 山东黄金(01787) | 1.09 亿股 | 1.10 亿股 | 12.77% | | 绿叶制药(02186) | 4.62 亿股 | 4.75 亿股 | 12.64% | | 协鑫科技(03800) | 33.24 亿股 | 35.43 亿股 | 12.44% | | 万科企业(02202) | 2.80 亿股 ...

Asia Pacific Equity Research 23 June 2025 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. S.F. Holding Co. Ltd - A/H How the leader stays ahead? May operation data sheds some light SF Holdings has defied expectations with its remarkable performance in the lo ...

2025 年 06 月 20 日 赵旭东 H70556@capital.com.tw H 股目标价(港元) 55 股价相对大盘走势 C o m p a n y U p d a t e C h i n a R e s e a r c h D e p t . 顺丰控股（06936.HK） 买进（Buy） 公司基本信息 | 产业别 | | 交通运输 | | --- | --- | --- | | H 股价(2025/06/19) | | 45.20 | | 恒生指数(2025/06/19) | | 23,237.7 | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | | 46.32/0 | | 总发行股数(百万) | | 4,992.69 | | H 股数(百万) | | 170.00 | | H 市值(亿元) | | 1,645.92 | | | | 深圳明德控股 | | 主要股东 | | 发展有限公司 | | | | (51.37%) | | 每股净值(元) | | 18.87 | | 股价/账面净值 | | 2.40 | | | 一个月 三个月 | 一年 | | 股价涨跌(%) | 13.33% 12.77% | N/A | ...

摘要 顺丰控股 20250617 顺丰通过细化大件业务、铺设航空资源及成立重货运输组，显著提升快 运业务量，有效应对京东收购德邦和跨越后的市场变化，抓住竞争对手 调整期的机遇。 电商退货件增加弥补了商务件单票收入下降的影响，顺丰凭借一小时上 门取件的逆向物流能力，承接了全行业近一半的退货件，构筑了差异化 竞争优势。 顺丰通过组织变革，总部职能转型为服务经营，推行经营结果导向的多 样化驱动和成果共享激励，采用类合伙人模式激发员工积极性，提升整 体运营效率。 公司持续推进多网融通，整合顺网、大建网、同城网，提高协同效率， 提升小哥人效 8-10 个百分点，并扩大与顺丰同城的合作，在末端收派 及同城快递产品上协同效果显著。 易收发驿站在西南地区试点，通过激励机制鼓励开设驿站，提高快递员 收入稳定性及客户满意度。同时，公司持续整合管理区域，减少大区数 量，优化中后台职能体系人员，压缩网点管理人员，从而节约人力成本。 Q&A 顺丰控股在快递件量增速方面表现优异的原因是什么？ 顺丰控股如何通过组织变革来提升业绩？ 顺丰控股通过一系列组织变革来提升业绩，包括总部职能转型为服务经营、推 行以经营结果为导向的多样化驱动、加大成 ...

点击蓝字，关注我们 3. 长飞光纤光缆(06869)涨近10%。 近日，长飞先进武汉基地一期已实现量产通线，首片6寸碳化硅晶 圆成功下线。 今日上午港股 4. 华南职业教育(06913)涨超10%。 华南职业教育目前主要运营着广东岭南职业技术学院、广东岭南 现代技师学院两所学校。 1. 优趣汇控股(02177)涨超24% 。优趣汇为国内领先的品牌电子商务运营服务商，公司积极布局大健 康领域，推出了包含麦角硫因活性成分的加拿大抗衰老健康食品品牌Vanpearl。 5. 顺丰控股(06936)涨超5% 。2025年4月全国快递企业件量163.2亿件，同比增长19.1%。海通国际表 示，2025年4月件量维持较高增速超邮管局全年预测，后续叠加消费提振与电商扶持刺激下，预计全 年有望保持较快增长。 6. 阿里影业(01060)涨超4%。 阿里影业披露，6月与百联ZX造趣场进行Chiikawa快闪店活动。同时， 董事会建议将公司名称由阿里影业更改为大麦娱乐，此次更名或标志着阿里影业在未来将更加聚焦线 下演出、IP衍生两大高成长性方向。 7. 信达生物(01801)涨超4%。 信达生物在2025年ASCO年会上公布，其创 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][7]. Core Views - The company is a leading global express delivery enterprise, with a double-digit growth in parcel volume since 2025, driving rapid profit growth. The expansion of the product matrix enhances competitiveness, ensuring future development and a focus on shareholder returns [7]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a net profit growth of nearly 20% year-on-year, with a total of 4.876 billion parcels delivered, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.36%, outperforming the industry average [7]. - The company is expanding its presence in various supply chain segments, transitioning from sales logistics to integrated logistics solutions, which is expected to translate into increased parcel volume and revenue [7]. Summary by Sections Company Information - The target price for H shares is HKD 48, with the current price at HKD 40.20. The market capitalization is approximately RMB 164.59 billion [1]. - The company has a price-to-book ratio of 2.13 and a net asset value per share of RMB 18.87 [1]. Recent Ratings - The company has consistently received "Buy" ratings in recent evaluations, with the latest rating issued on March 31, 2025 [2]. Product Mix - The product mix consists of 70.4% express and large parcel services, 3.2% local delivery, and 26.0% supply chain and international services [3]. Financial Performance - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve a net profit of RMB 11.93 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 17%. The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be RMB 2.39 [9]. - The company’s revenue is forecasted to reach RMB 306.1 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 7.6% [11]. Shareholder Returns - The company has initiated a share buyback program with a total amount of RMB 500 million to RMB 1 billion, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][2]. Core Insights - The company is a leading global express delivery enterprise, with a significant increase in parcel volume exceeding expectations, driving rapid profit growth. The company is focusing on shareholder returns and has a positive long-term outlook [7][6]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a net profit growth of nearly 20%, with a total parcel volume of 4.876 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 22.36%, outperforming the industry average [7][9]. - The company is expanding its business into various supply chain segments, which is expected to enhance parcel volume and revenue growth [7][9]. Summary by Sections Company Information - The target price for H shares is HKD 48, with the current price at HKD 40.20. The market capitalization is approximately RMB 164.59 billion [1]. - The company has a price-to-book ratio of 2.13 and a net asset value per share of RMB 18.87 [1]. Recent Ratings - The company has consistently received "Buy" ratings in recent evaluations, with the latest rating issued on March 31, 2025 [2]. Product Mix - The company's product mix includes 70.4% from express and large parcel services, 3.2% from same-city delivery, and 26.0% from supply chain and international services [3]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts net profits of RMB 11.927 billion, RMB 13.475 billion, and RMB 15.157 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 17%, 12.97%, and 12.48% [9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be RMB 2.39, RMB 2.70, and RMB 3.04 for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 15.70, 13.89, and 12.35 for H shares [9]. Cash Flow and Capital Management - The company is expected to generate a net cash flow from operating activities of RMB 27.513 billion in 2025, with a focus on maintaining shareholder returns through share buybacks [11].

Summary of SF Express Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: SF Express (顺丰控股) - **Industry**: Logistics and Express Delivery Key Points and Arguments 1. **Operational Adjustments**: SF Express is enhancing customer acquisition and collection efficiency through organizational restructuring and employee incentives, which could lead to revenue growth and profit elasticity if domestic consumption improves [2][4] 2. **Valuation Comparison**: The company's EV/EBITDA is approximately 5x for Hong Kong shares and under 7x for A-shares, compared to 7-8x for international peers like UPS, FedEx, and DHL, indicating potential for valuation recovery with target price increases of 30% for Hong Kong shares and 20% for A-shares [2][5] 3. **Business Transformation**: SF Express is transitioning from traditional express delivery to comprehensive logistics services, with traditional express revenue now accounting for less than half of total revenue, establishing a diversified logistics network [2][6][7] 4. **Market Position**: The company is focusing on the Asian logistics market, which is the largest and fastest-growing globally, while gradually expanding internationally, particularly in express and supply chain services [2][7] 5. **Cost Efficiency**: The use of Ezhou Airport as a central hub is reducing rental costs and the number of distribution centers, improving asset utilization and lowering fixed capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue, thus enhancing gross margins [2][15][16] 6. **Revenue and Profit Growth**: Projected revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is about 8% over the next two years, with net profit CAGR expected to reach 16%, forecasting net profits of 11.7 billion yuan in 2025 and 13.7 billion yuan in 2026 [2][11][17] 7. **Shareholder Returns**: The company is enhancing shareholder returns through regular dividends and share buybacks, which are expected to accelerate revenue growth and act as catalysts for both short-term and long-term performance [3][18] Additional Important Insights 1. **Profitability Fluctuations**: Past profitability fluctuations were primarily due to mismatches between capacity and demand cycles, but improvements in network infrastructure and capital expenditure ratios are enhancing cash flow visibility [4] 2. **Market Dynamics**: The global logistics market is valued at approximately $11 trillion, with Asia accounting for $5 trillion and China for $2.6 trillion, representing about 13-14% of GDP [6][7] 3. **Segment Performance**: Different business segments are expected to show varied growth rates, with express services projected to grow around 9% from 2022 to 2023, and international supply chain services expected to grow over 20% in 2024 [12][13] 4. **Core Competencies**: SF Express's strengths include a direct sales model, comprehensive service capabilities, and a strong independent third-party market position, supported by a large customer base of 700 million users [10] 5. **Future Directions**: The company aims to enhance operational efficiency and resource integration while expanding its international market presence, particularly in Asia, to achieve long-term stable growth [8][14]

Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of RMB 69,849,924 thousand, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.90%[7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 2,234,197 thousand, up 16.87% compared to the same period last year[7] - The gross profit for Q1 2025 was RMB 9,292,000 thousand, with a gross margin of 13.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year[12] - The net profit margin attributable to shareholders was 3.2%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year[12] - Operating revenue for the three months ended March 31, 2025, was RMB 69,849,924 thousand, representing a 6.90% increase compared to RMB 65,341,051 thousand in 2024[13] - Operating profit for the same period was RMB 3,032,077 thousand, up 14.4% from RMB 2,651,002 thousand year-over-year[33] - Net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 2,234,197 thousand, representing a 16.9% increase from RMB 1,911,636 thousand in the previous year[33] - Basic and diluted earnings per share for the first quarter of 2025 were both RMB 0.45, compared to RMB 0.39 in the same quarter of 2024[34] - Total comprehensive income for the three months ended March 31, 2025, was RMB 2,287,374 thousand, significantly higher than RMB 990,588 thousand in the same period of 2024[34] Cash Flow and Investments - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of RMB 4,061,813 thousand, down 14.21% from the previous year[7] - Cash flow from operating activities generated RMB 4,061,813 thousand, a decrease of 14.2% from RMB 4,734,437 thousand in the prior year[36] - Cash flow from investment activities resulted in a net outflow of RMB 7,380,110 thousand, compared to a net outflow of RMB 8,130,095 thousand in the same period of 2024[39] - The company's cash flow from financing activities showed a significant decline of 192.90%, resulting in a net outflow of RMB 3,382,679 thousand, attributed to increased loan repayments and share repurchases[14] - Cash flow from financing activities showed a net outflow of RMB 3,382,679 thousand, contrasting with a net inflow of RMB 3,641,197 thousand in the previous year[41] Operational Efficiency - Management expenses as a percentage of revenue decreased by 0.6 percentage points, reflecting improved operational efficiency[12] - The company continues to innovate in logistics services, enhancing competitiveness and expanding market presence[10] Shareholder Information - The total number of ordinary shareholders at the end of the reporting period was 167,808, with 167,725 being A-share holders[16] - Shenzhen Mingde Holdings Development Co., Ltd. held 51.37% of the shares, amounting to 2,561,927,139 shares, with 948,600,000 shares pledged[16] - The company announced a share repurchase plan with a total amount not less than RMB 500 million and not exceeding RMB 1 billion, with a repurchase price capped at RMB 53 per share[21] - The company repurchased a total of 23,270,358 A-shares for approximately RMB 859 million, accounting for 0.47% of the total share capital, with an average transaction price of RMB 36.91 per share[22] Asset and Liability Management - As of March 31, 2025, total current assets decreased to RMB 84.74 billion from RMB 88.69 billion as of December 31, 2024[28] - Total non-current assets slightly decreased to RMB 124.66 billion from RMB 125.14 billion during the same period[29] - Total liabilities decreased to RMB 104.71 billion from RMB 111.49 billion, indicating improved financial stability[30] - The company's total equity increased to RMB 104.69 billion from RMB 102.34 billion, reflecting a positive growth trend in shareholder value[30] - The company’s cash and cash equivalents decreased to RMB 27.05 billion from RMB 33.94 billion, indicating a reduction in liquidity[28] - The company’s accounts payable decreased to RMB 24.24 billion from RMB 27.39 billion, showing improved cash flow management[30] - The company’s retained earnings increased to RMB 41.38 billion from RMB 39.14 billion, indicating a strong profit retention strategy[30] Revenue and Parcel Volume - The total volume of parcels handled reached 13.56 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.7%[10] - The company’s supply chain and international business revenue grew by 9.9% year-on-year, driven by enhanced international network capabilities[10] - Operating costs increased by 6.74% to RMB 60,561,674 thousand from RMB 56,738,060 thousand year-over-year[13] Research and Development - The company reported a decrease in research and development expenses to RMB 584,358 thousand from RMB 633,224 thousand year-over-year[32] Other Comprehensive Income - The company experienced a decrease in other comprehensive income, with a net amount of RMB -73,559 thousand compared to RMB -838,756 thousand in the previous year[33]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Strong Buy" rating for SF Holding (06936.HK) with an expected target price of 54.50 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 44% from the current price of 37.75 HKD [4][8]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the sustainable improvement in net profit margins for the company, driven by resilient demand in core express delivery services and a strategic shift from product sales to industry solution offerings [1][2]. - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of over 20% in logistics income from e-commerce, telecommunications, automotive, and industrial manufacturing sectors in 2024 [1]. - The operational transformation aimed at cost reduction is based on a new operational model that has reduced the average distance for delivery personnel by 38% [2]. - The international business segment is projected to experience a profit increase, with significant growth in air cargo throughput at Ezhou Airport [2][8]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 284.42 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, with net profit reaching 10.17 billion RMB, up 23.5% [8]. - The net profit margin for 2024 was recorded at 3.6%, reflecting a 0.4% increase from the previous year [8]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 4.104 billion RMB for 2024, representing a 40% payout ratio [8]. Business Growth - The express delivery business volume is expected to grow by 11.8% year-on-year, with a revenue of 122.21 billion RMB in 2024, marking a 5.8% increase [1][8]. - The company has outperformed its peers in terms of business volume growth in March 2025, with a growth rate of 25.4% [8]. Valuation Metrics - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with expected net profits of 11.7 billion RMB, 13.7 billion RMB, and 15.6 billion RMB respectively, corresponding to EPS of 2.3, 2.7, and 3.1 RMB [8]. - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the next three years are 15, 13, and 11 times [8].