Core Insights - SF Holding has highlighted the increasing penetration of express delivery services into various life and production scenarios, indicating a shift in the nature of delivery demand [2] - The company noted that over half of its express delivery volume now consists of consumer goods, such as clothing and cosmetics, rather than just traditional business documents [2] - New manufacturing models are driving demand for express delivery, with flexible supply chains enabling small-batch and multi-batch production, leading to the adoption of just-in-time (JIT) logistics by many manufacturing clients [2] - SF Holding is expanding its service capabilities and product system to provide end-to-end comprehensive logistics services, including the development of air freight for large industrial products [2]

Core Viewpoint - SF Holding reported a strong performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 146.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%, and a net profit of 5.74 billion yuan, up 19.4% from the previous year, driven by strategic innovations and enhanced global capabilities [1][9]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2025 was 146.9 billion yuan, representing a 9.3% increase year-on-year [1]. - The total package volume reached 7.85 billion, a growth of 25.7% year-on-year, outpacing the overall express delivery industry [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.74 billion yuan, reflecting a 19.4% increase compared to the previous year [1]. Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The "Activate Operations" strategy has significantly improved organizational efficiency, with a 0.5% reduction in management expense ratio in the first half of 2025 [2]. - The company transitioned from a "management-type" to a "service support-type" organization, enhancing strategic planning and talent development [2]. - SF Holding shifted its incentive mechanism from traditional KPI rewards to a profit-sharing model, boosting frontline employee efficiency [2]. Group 3: Business Segments - The express logistics business generated 109.3 billion yuan in revenue, a 10.4% increase year-on-year, while the supply chain and international business revenue reached 34.2 billion yuan, up 9.7% [1]. - The time-sensitive express business achieved 63.23 billion yuan in revenue, growing 6.8% year-on-year, with an 18.6% increase in business volume [3]. Group 4: Market Positioning - SF Holding has maintained a leading position in the domestic market through a differentiated product strategy, focusing on deep penetration into various consumption scenarios [3]. - The company has developed integrated solutions for the apparel and footwear industry, addressing inventory turnover and reverse logistics challenges [3]. Group 5: Global Expansion - SF Holding's supply chain and international business continued to grow, supported by investments in global infrastructure, including the Ezhou Huahu International Airport and overseas warehouse networks [7][8]. - The company opened three international cargo routes in the first half of 2025, enhancing its global air freight network [7]. - As of June 2025, SF Holding's overseas warehouse resources exceeded 2.5 million square meters, covering major countries in the Asia-Pacific region [8]. Group 6: Comprehensive Growth Strategy - The company's growth is attributed to strategic innovations, multi-scenario penetration, and the enhancement of its global resource advantages, ensuring both short-term resilience and long-term development as a leading digital logistics solution provider [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for SF Holding [2][6] Core Insights - SF Holding reported a revenue of 284.42 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, and a net profit of 10.17 billion yuan, up 23.5% year-on-year, slightly exceeding expectations [6] - The express logistics business remains stable, with revenue from the core express delivery segment reaching 122.21 billion yuan, a growth of 5.8% year-on-year, driven by new delivery demand [6] - The company is focused on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, leading to a net profit margin increase of 0.39 percentage points to 3.58% in 2024 [6] - Capital expenditure for 2024 was 9.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 27% year-on-year, indicating that the peak of capital expenditure has passed [6] - The report slightly raises profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 11.82 billion yuan, 13.59 billion yuan, and 15.31 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 18, 16, and 14 [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 309.27 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.7% [5] - Net profit for 2025 is projected at 11.82 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 16.2% [5] - Earnings per share for 2025 is estimated at 2.37 yuan [5] - The gross profit margin is expected to remain stable at around 13.9% for 2025 [5] - Return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 11.7% in 2025 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance in 2024, with significant growth in revenue and net profit, driven by effective operational strategies and business segment performance [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a total revenue of 284.4 billion yuan in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.2 billion yuan, up 23.5% [1]. - In Q4 2024, revenue reached 77.56 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.8% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of 2.55 billion yuan, increasing by 29.6% [1]. Business Segment Performance - The express logistics segment handled 1.326 billion packages, growing by 11.5% year-on-year, with revenue from express services reaching 122.21 billion yuan, a 5.8% increase [2]. - The economic express segment saw a revenue increase of 11.8% year-on-year, with a volume growth of 17.5% [2]. - The freight business experienced over 20% growth in volume, with revenue of 37.64 billion yuan, up 13.8% [2]. - The cold chain and pharmaceutical segments faced a decline in revenue to 9.81 billion yuan, down 4.9% due to adverse weather conditions affecting fresh produce [2]. - The same-city instant delivery service reported a revenue of 8.87 billion yuan, growing by 22.4% year-on-year [2]. Supply Chain and International Business - The company capitalized on opportunities in cross-border e-commerce and international markets, achieving a revenue of 70.49 billion yuan in this segment, up 17.5% [3]. - The company improved operational efficiency, with total operating costs of 244.81 billion yuan, a growth of 8.7%, which was lower than the revenue growth rate [3]. - The gross profit margin increased to 12.93%, up 1.11 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Cost Management and Profitability - The company effectively managed expenses, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios at 1.09%, 6.52%, 0.89%, and 0.65%, respectively, showing a decrease in most categories [3]. - The net profit margin reached 3.58%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points year-on-year, indicating significant improvement in profitability [3]. Investment Outlook - The company announced a cash dividend rate of 40% for 2024, an increase of 5 percentage points, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [4]. - Projections for 2025-2027 indicate expected revenues of 310.52 billion yuan, 335.96 billion yuan, and 360.08 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 9.2%, 8.2%, and 7.2% [4]. - Net profits for the same period are forecasted to be 11.69 billion yuan, 12.95 billion yuan, and 14.20 billion yuan, with growth rates of 15.0%, 10.8%, and 9.6% respectively [4].

Core Insights - SF Holding achieved record-high operating performance in 2024, with revenue reaching approximately 284.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 10%, and net profit surpassing 10 billion yuan for the first time, reaching 10.17 billion yuan, a growth of over 20% [1][3][4] Financial Performance - In 2024, SF Holding's revenue increased by 26.01 billion yuan compared to the previous year, marking a growth rate of 10.07% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 1.93 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 23.51% [3] - The company plans to distribute cash dividends exceeding 8.9 billion yuan, setting a historical high [2] Business Segments - The express delivery business generated 122.21 billion yuan in revenue, up 5.8% year-on-year, with a business volume increase of 11.8% [5] - The economic express segment reported 27.25 billion yuan in revenue, a growth of 8.8%, with a business volume increase of 17.5% [5] - The freight business achieved 37.64 billion yuan in revenue, reflecting a 13.8% increase, with cargo volume growing over 20% [5] - The cold chain and pharmaceutical segment saw a revenue decline of 4.9% to 9.81 billion yuan, primarily due to climate factors affecting seasonal fresh produce [5] - The same-city instant delivery business grew by 22.4%, generating 8.87 billion yuan [5] - Supply chain and international business revenue exceeded 70.49 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 17.5%, indicating a solid second growth curve [5] Cost Management - Structural cost reduction has been a significant factor in the net profit growth, with continuous optimization of the network and a decrease in average operating costs [6] - The comprehensive gross margin and net margin for 2024 were 13.93% and 3.59%, respectively, both showing year-on-year increases [7] Technological Innovation - SF Holding emphasizes technological empowerment, integrating advanced logistics technology to enhance operational efficiency and customer service [8] - The company has developed proprietary models for logistics decision-making and large language models, improving demand forecasting and operational decision-making [8][9] - The application of automation technologies, such as AGV and RPA, has optimized business processes and enhanced network efficiency [8][9] R&D Investment - Since 2020, SF Holding has invested over 3 billion yuan annually in research and development [10] - As of the end of 2024, the company holds 4,180 active and pending patents, with 2,505 software copyrights, of which 61.5% are invention patents [10] - The company aims to accelerate industry transformation by shifting from a "product-selling" model to a "solution-selling" model, expanding its supply chain capabilities [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Strong Buy" (maintained) [1][2]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 10.17 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.5%, with a net profit margin of 3.6%. The outlook for the company's net profit margin is positive, indicating a sustained improvement [1][5]. - The target price is set at 56.3 RMB, with the current price at 42.04 RMB, suggesting a potential upside of approximately 34% [2][5]. - The company has shown resilience in its core express delivery demand, maintaining growth above GDP levels despite macroeconomic pressures. The transition from selling products to providing industry solutions is expected to enhance service penetration [5][10]. - The company has implemented operational changes that have reduced costs and improved efficiency, including a new operational model that has shortened the average distance for delivery personnel by 38% [5][10]. - The international business segment is anticipated to contribute positively to profits, with significant growth in air cargo throughput at Ezhou Airport [5][10]. Financial Summary - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 284.42 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%. The express logistics segment generated revenue of 205.8 billion RMB, up 7.7% [5][6]. - The company reported a quarterly net profit of 2.55 billion RMB in Q4 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 29.6% [5][9]. - The company plans to distribute a total cash dividend of approximately 4.104 billion RMB for the year, with a payout ratio of 40% [5][10]. - The company’s operating data indicates a total express delivery volume of 13.26 billion pieces in 2024, an increase of 11.5% year-on-year [5][9]. - The company’s financial forecasts for 2025 to 2027 predict a net profit of 11.67 billion RMB, 13.70 billion RMB, and 15.60 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.34, 2.75, and 3.13 RMB [6][11].

Core Viewpoint - SF Holding (002352.SZ; 6936.HK) reported a strong financial performance for 2024, with revenue reaching 284.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, and net profit of 10.2 billion yuan, up 23.5%, marking a historical high since its A-share listing. However, losses in the supply chain and international business raise concerns for future growth [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, SF Holding achieved revenue of 284.4 billion yuan, a 10.1% increase year-on-year, and net profit of 10.2 billion yuan, reflecting a 23.5% growth [2]. - The gross profit margin improved from 12.82% to 13.93% [2]. - Despite revenue growth, the supply chain and international business reported a loss of 132 million yuan, indicating ongoing challenges in these segments [2]. Business Segment Analysis - The supply chain and international business generated revenue of 70.49 billion yuan, a 17.5% increase, but continued to incur losses due to restructuring and market pressures [2]. - The core express delivery business faced increased competition, with revenue of 122.21 billion yuan, a 5.8% increase, while the business volume grew by 11.8%, leading to a 3.4% decline in average price per shipment [2]. - The market share of SF Holding in the express delivery sector is 7.57%, below the industry average growth rate of 21.5% [2]. Highlights and Challenges - Same-city instant delivery emerged as a bright spot, with revenue growing by 27.1% to 15.75 billion yuan and net profit increasing by 161.8% to 133 million yuan, driven by an increase in active merchants and coverage in e-commerce returns [3]. - However, the company faces strong competition from rivals like Jitu and Tongda, which are aggressively penetrating the market through price wars [3]. International Expansion - SF Holding made significant strides in its international strategy by becoming the first A+H listed company in the express logistics sector, marking a milestone in its capital market internationalization [4]. - Despite rapid expansion in Southeast Asia and Japan, the company continues to face profitability challenges in overseas markets, with unclear profit models leading to short-term losses [4]. Future Outlook - The company plans to enhance its market position through technological innovation and diversified strategies, focusing on high-efficiency express delivery and air logistics network development [4]. - SF Holding aims to optimize its supply chain and international business to turn losses into profits and strengthen its competitive edge [4]. - In the capital market, the company is taking measures such as cash dividends and share buybacks to boost investor confidence, with operating cash flow reaching 32.19 billion yuan, a 21.1% increase [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in domestic business and has opened up opportunities in international markets [2] - The company's profitability and cash flow have maintained high growth, indicating an improvement in profit efficiency and value enhancement [2][3] - The company plans to increase its cash dividend payout ratio, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [8] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 284.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.07%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.17 billion yuan, up 23.51% year-on-year [3][10] - The company's net profit margin for 2024 was approximately 3.58%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The express delivery and large parcel segment generated revenue of approximately 200.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.10%, with a net profit of approximately 10.98 billion yuan, up 29.91% [4] - The instant delivery segment saw revenue of approximately 9.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.24%, with net profit doubling to approximately 132 million yuan [5] - The supply chain and international segment reported revenue of approximately 74.00 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.72%, but a net loss of approximately 1.32 billion yuan [5] Capital Expenditure and Cash Flow - The peak period for capital expenditure has passed, with 2024 capital expenditure at 9.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 27% year-on-year [6] - Operating cash flow for 2024 was 32.2 billion yuan, an increase of 21% year-on-year, and free cash flow rose by 70% to 22.3 billion yuan [7] Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 4.4 yuan per 10 shares for the 2024 fiscal year, with an expected total dividend payout of approximately 4.1 billion yuan, representing a payout ratio of about 40% [8] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 11.91 billion yuan, 14.26 billion yuan, and 16.85 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.1%, 19.8%, and 18.1% [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in domestic business and opened up opportunities in international markets [2] - The report highlights that the company's profit and cash flow maintain high growth, indicating an improvement in profitability efficiency [2][3] - The company is expected to have a significant long-term value potential as a leading integrated express logistics provider [9] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 284.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.07%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.17 billion yuan, up 23.51% year-on-year [3][10] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a net profit of 2.55 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.61% [3] - The company's net profit margin for 2024 was approximately 3.58%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points year-on-year [3] Segment Performance Summary - The express and freight segment generated revenue of approximately 200.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.10%, with a net profit of about 10.98 billion yuan, up 29.91% [4] - The same-city instant delivery segment saw revenue of approximately 9.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.24%, with net profit doubling to 132 million yuan [5] - The supply chain and international segment reported revenue of approximately 74.00 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.72%, but a net loss of 1.32 billion yuan [5] Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure - The peak period of capital expenditure has passed, with 2024 capital expenditure at 9.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 27% year-on-year [6] - Operating cash flow for 2024 was 32.2 billion yuan, an increase of 21% year-on-year, while free cash flow surged by 70% to 22.3 billion yuan [7] Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 4.4 yuan per 10 shares for the end of 2024, with an expected total dividend amount of approximately 4.1 billion yuan, representing a payout ratio of about 40% [8] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 11.91 billion yuan, 14.26 billion yuan, and 16.85 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.1%, 19.8%, and 18.1% [9][10]