顺丰控股 (002352. SZ) 物流 聚焦直营强化竞争优势,融合再生拓展成长空间 -顺丰控股首次覆盖深度报告 证券研究报告/公司深度报告 2025 年 08 月 25 日 | 评级: | 买入(首次) | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师:杜冲 | | 营业收入(百万元) | 258.409 | 284.420 | 312,488 | 339,269 | 370,375 | | | | 增长率 yoy% | -3% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 9% | | 执业证书编号: S0740522040001 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 8.234 | 10.170 | 11,863 | 14.006 | 16.221 | | | | 增长率 yoy% | 33% | 24% | 17% | 18% | 16% | | Email: duchong@zts.com.cn | | ...

Core Insights - ZTO Express reported Q2 2025 revenue of 11.832 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10.3% [1] - Net profit for the quarter was 1.965 billion RMB, with adjusted diluted earnings per American Depositary Share at 2.53 RMB and 2.48 RMB [1] - Package volume reached 9.847 billion, up 16.5% from 8.452 billion in Q2 2024 [1] Operational Metrics - As of June 30, 2025, ZTO had over 31,000 collection and delivery points and approximately 6,000 direct network partners [1] - The fleet included over 10,000 self-owned vehicles, with over 9,400 being high-capacity models [1] - The company operated 94 sorting centers, with 90 managed by ZTO and 4 by network partners [1] Management Commentary - The CEO emphasized the company's commitment to quality and differentiated service, despite a market trend towards lower-priced offerings [1] - The CFO noted a slight decrease in net revenue per package, attributed to increased incentives and a decline in average package weight, partially offset by higher prices for key accounts [1] - The company adjusted its full-year package volume guidance to a range of 38.8 billion to 40.1 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 14.0% to 18.0% [1] Revenue Breakdown - Core express service revenue grew by 11.0% year-on-year, driven by a 16.5% increase in package volume and a 4.7% decrease in package price [1] - Freight forwarding service revenue decreased by 22.7% compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - Material sales, primarily from thermal paper for electronic waybills, increased by 9.5% [1]

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.46% at 44,632.99 points, the S&P 500 down 0.30% at 6,370.86 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.38% at 21,098.29 points [2][3] - Popular tech stocks led the decline, with the U.S. Tech Giants Index down 0.59%, Facebook down over 2%, and Tesla, Apple, and Intel down over 1% [3] Company Performance - Starbucks reported Q3 net revenue of $9.5 billion, up from $9.11 billion year-over-year, exceeding analyst expectations of $9.29 billion. Adjusted EPS was $0.50, below the expected $0.65. Same-store sales in China grew by 2%, surpassing the expected 1.44% [8] - Visa's Q3 net revenue reached $10.2 billion, up from $8.9 billion year-over-year, beating analyst expectations of $9.83 billion. Adjusted EPS was $2.98, above the forecast of $2.85 [10] Sector Movements - The weight loss sector saw significant declines, with Novo Nordisk dropping over 21%. United Parcel Service fell over 10% due to Q2 earnings impact, while Eli Lilly and FedEx dropped 5.59% and over 3%, respectively [4] - The oil and gas sector showed strength, with ExxonMobil, Shell, and Imperial Oil rising over 1% [6] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 1.35%, with major Chinese stocks mostly declining. Li Auto dropped over 6%, JD.com fell over 3%, and Baidu declined nearly 3% [5] Federal Reserve Focus - The market is awaiting the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting, with a 97.9% probability that interest rates will remain unchanged. The probability of a 25 basis point cut in September is 63.2% [11][14]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has shown strong growth in business volume and revenue, with June revenue reaching 26.254 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.43%, and express logistics business volume at 1.46 billion tickets, up 31.77% year-on-year [2][3] - The company has successfully transformed into a comprehensive logistics leader, with new business segments achieving market-leading positions and contributing to revenue and profit improvements [6][7] Summary by Sections Business Performance - In Q2, the company reported a business volume increase of 31.20% year-on-year and revenue growth of 12.41% [3] - The company’s business volume has been accelerating since 2025, significantly outpacing industry growth rates [4] Revenue and Profitability - The total revenue for the company in 2025 is projected to be 315.54 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.9% [8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 11.91 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.1% [8] Financial Metrics - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve from 12.8% in 2023 to 14.0% in 2025 [8] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to increase from 8.9% in 2023 to 12.1% in 2025 [8] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with net profits projected to reach 14.26 billion in 2026 and 16.85 billion in 2027, representing growth rates of 19.7% and 18.2% respectively [7][8] - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio is projected to decrease from 29.33 in 2023 to 20.28 in 2025, indicating potential value appreciation [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the express delivery sector, suggesting that it is currently undervalued and highlighting the growth potential driven by the e-commerce market and new demands in lower-tier markets [61]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry shows strong growth resilience, with a year-on-year increase of 21.6% in business volume for Q1 2025 and a 13.8% increase in total revenue for 2024, reaching 1.4 trillion yuan [1][21]. - Major companies in the sector, including Zhongtong and Shentong, have demonstrated solid revenue growth, with Shentong achieving a remarkable 205% increase in net profit for 2024 [2][34]. - The market share of Zhongtong remains dominant at 19.6% in 2024, leading the sector by a margin of 4.2 percentage points over its closest competitor [2][31]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The express delivery business volume in 2024 reached 1.758 billion pieces, a 21.5% increase year-on-year, while Q1 2025 saw 451.4 million pieces, marking a 21.6% increase [11][1]. - The average price per ticket in the express delivery industry faced slight pressure, decreasing by 14.2% in 2024 and 7.7% in Q1 2025 [25][21]. Performance Overview - All major express delivery companies reported steady growth in both business volume and revenue, with Shentong leading in growth rates at 29.8% for 2024 [2][28]. - In terms of revenue, major players like Shunfeng, Shentong, and Yunda achieved revenues of 2.844 billion, 471.7 million, and 485.4 million yuan respectively in 2024, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.1%, 15.3%, and 7.9% [34][36]. Asset Layout - Zhongtong possesses the largest fleet of self-owned vehicles and sorting equipment, with over 10,000 self-owned trucks and 95 sorting centers as of 2024 [3][56]. - Capital expenditures for 2024 show an increase for Shentong and Yunda, while Zhongtong, Yunda, and Shunfeng have slowed their capital spending [3][58]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading e-commerce express delivery companies such as Zhongtong, Yunda, Shentong, and Jitu Express, as well as logistics leader Shunfeng, due to the expected recovery in demand in the mid-to-high-end express market [61][62].