Core Viewpoint - Tianqi Lithium, as the second-largest shareholder of SQM with approximately 22.16% stake, has lost a legal battle regarding SQM's cooperation agreement with Codelco for lithium resources in the Atacama salt flat, leading to the transfer of control over this key lithium asset to Codelco, marking a significant shift in the global lithium resource governance landscape [2]. Group 1: Timeline of Events - On December 27, 2023, SQM and Codelco signed a memorandum of understanding to collaborate on the Atacama salt flat until 2060 [3]. - On May 31, 2024, both parties officially signed a partnership agreement, establishing a joint venture where Codelco holds 50.000001% and will take control and consolidate financial statements starting in 2031 [4]. - Tianqi Lithium applied to the Chilean Financial Market Commission (CMF) on May 21, 2024, requesting a special shareholders' meeting to approve the transaction, which was rejected by CMF on June 18, 2024 [4]. - After a series of legal challenges, the Chilean Supreme Court upheld the lower court's decision on January 27, 2026, confirming the validity of the partnership agreement [4]. Group 2: Direct Impact on Tianqi Lithium - Governance rights have been weakened as control over SQM's core lithium assets shifts to Codelco, reducing Tianqi's influence through board representation [5]. - Investment returns are under pressure, with 70% of the joint venture's profits allocated to the Chilean government from 2025 to 2030, leading to a decline in SQM's dividend capacity and increasing the risk of long-term impairment of Tianqi's investment [5]. - Strategic adjustments are necessary, emphasizing compliance with resource country policies and accelerating resource reserves and capacity construction in domestic and other regions [5]. Group 3: Industry Impact - The nationalization of Chile's lithium resources is accelerating, reinforcing the trend of "Lithium Pacts" in South America, and shifting global lithium pricing power towards resource-rich countries [5]. - The barriers to overseas lithium mining investments are rising, requiring companies to accept deeper involvement of state capital and shifting cooperation models towards "technology for shares" and "capacity for resources" [5]. Group 4: Chile's Lithium Nationalization Policy - The Chilean government's lithium strategy was announced in April 2023, positioning lithium as a strategic mineral and planning to establish a state-owned lithium company [6]. - The partnership agreement signed in May 2024 marks the core implementation of the nationalization strategy, with Codelco holding a controlling stake in key lithium projects [6]. - The joint venture's profit distribution will see 70% of profits going to the government from 2025 to 2030, with Codelco leading profit distribution after 2031 [6]. Group 5: Recommendations for Companies and Industry - Companies should conduct comprehensive assessments of resource country policies and proactively establish shareholder agreements and investment terms to secure exit mechanisms and dividend rights [7]. - Innovative cooperation models should be developed, collaborating with state-owned enterprises like Codelco to exchange technology, capacity, and market access for resource development rights, thereby mitigating policy risks [7]. - Strengthening communication with resource country governments is essential to promote transparent pricing and profit distribution mechanisms, balancing national interests with corporate returns [9].

业内人士表示，碳酸锂价格的回暖，有望带动拥有自有矿和盐湖的生产企业业绩修复。 1月30日，锂矿板块大跌，截至14:40，锂矿板块跌超6%，西部矿业、中矿资源、天齐锂业等跌超7%。 对此，赣锋锂业、雅化集团等多家锂矿企业回应中国证券报·中证金牛座记者称，公司生产经营一切正 常。 其中，一家不愿具名的企业负责人对记者表示："公司产品供不应求，产销正常，现在没有什么库存。" 上海钢联数据显示，2025年下半年以来，电池级碳酸锂价格持续上涨，从7万元/吨左右一度涨至17万 元/吨左右。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Bank of America Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianqi Lithium Industries, indicating that the company is well-prepared for higher lithium price forecasts and improved profit margin prospects [1] - The overall industry outlook predicts that lithium prices will reach RMB 126,000 per ton by 2026, with prices expected to continue rising in the first half of the year due to low inventory levels [1] - The target price set for Tianqi Lithium is HKD 70 [1] Group 2 - Tianqi Lithium has issued a profit warning, expecting a net profit between RMB 369 million and RMB 553 million for the previous year, which suggests a fourth-quarter net profit ranging from RMB 189 million to RMB 373 million [1] - The anticipated profit improvement aligns with the upward trend in lithium and spodumene prices within the industry [1]

天齐锂业发盈喜，预计去年纯利介乎3.69亿至5.53亿元人民币，意味着第四季纯利介乎1.89亿至3.73亿元 人民币，按季有所改善，并与锂和锂辉石价格回升的行业趋势一致。 智通财经APP获悉，美银证券发布研报称，对天齐锂业(09696)维持"买入"评级，认为公司已为更高锂价 预测及利润率改善前景做好准备。从行业整体来看，该行预计锂价在2026年达每吨12.6万元人民币，并 因库存偏低而在上半年持续上涨。该行予公司目标价70港元。 ...

1月30日，天齐锂业（002466）股份有限公司(以下简称"天齐锂业")披露2025年业绩预告。作为锂行业 龙头企业，天齐锂业在经历了此前锂价下跌等多方面因素带来的压力后逐步迎来业绩回暖，预计2025年 实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润3.69亿元至5.53亿元，扣非后净利润为2.4亿元至3.6亿元，同比均扭亏 为盈。 公告显示，天齐锂业2025年业绩变动的原因主要来自四个方面。尽管受到2025年锂产品市场波动的影 响，该公司的锂产品销售价格同比下降，但旗下锂精矿定价机制与锂化工产品销售定价机制此前存在的 时间周期错配影响已大幅减弱，随着国内新购锂精矿陆续入库及库存锂精矿的逐步消化，天齐锂业生产 成本中耗用的化学级锂精矿成本基本接近最新采购价格；报告期内确认的对重要联营公司 SociedadQuímicayMineradeChileS.A.(以下简称"SQM")的投资收益同比大幅增长；2025年澳元兑美元的 汇率变动导致该公司的汇兑收益金额同比增长；预计2025年计提的资产减值损失同比减少。 天齐锂业相关负责人日前在与投资者互动时表示，该公司正从"锂资源供应商"向"新材料解决方案提供 者"转型升级，在巩固碳酸锂 ...

Core Viewpoint - The data indicates significant outflows of main funds from various stocks, with notable declines in share prices across multiple sectors, particularly in the rare metals and non-ferrous metals industries [1][2][3] Group 1: Stock Performance and Fund Outflows - BlueFocus Media experienced a fund outflow of 1.638 billion yuan, with a share price decline of 3.59% [2] - Northern Rare Earth saw a fund outflow of 1.321 billion yuan, with a share price drop of 8.72% [2] - Zijin Mining reported a fund outflow of 1.256 billion yuan, with a decrease in share price of 8.33% [2] - Tongling Nonferrous Metals had a fund outflow of 1.232 billion yuan, with a share price decline of 10.01% [2] - Luoyang Molybdenum experienced a fund outflow of 1.128 billion yuan, with a share price drop of 9.21% [2] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The rare metals sector, represented by Northern Rare Earth and Luoyang Molybdenum, is facing significant fund outflows and price declines [2][3] - The non-ferrous metals sector, including companies like Zijin Mining and Tongling Nonferrous Metals, is also experiencing substantial outflows, indicating potential challenges in this industry [2][3] - The energy metals sector, represented by Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium, shows notable fund outflows, with share price declines of 8% and 7.46% respectively [2][3]

Summary of Tianqi Lithium Industries Inc. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tianqi Lithium Industries Inc. - **Industry**: Lithium and Materials - **Market Cap**: Rmb95,384 million - **Stock Rating**: Overweight - **Price Target**: HK$55.20 - **Current Price**: HK$55.10 (as of January 29, 2026) Key Financial Results - **Preliminary Full-Year 2025 Results**: - Net profit of Rmb369-553 million, compared to a loss of Rmb7.9 billion in 2024, but below consensus expectations of Rmb777 million [1] - **4Q25 Net Profit**: - Estimated at Rmb189-373 million, an increase from Rmb95 million in 3Q25 [2] - **Full-Year 2025 Recurring Profit**: - Rmb240-360 million, with an implied recurring net profit of Rmb170-290 million in 4Q25, up from Rmb69 million in 3Q25 [2] Market Dynamics - **Lithium Price Increases**: - Notable increase of 19% quarter-over-quarter in 4Q25, with expectations of a further 61% increase in 1Q26, positively impacting Tianqi's profitability [2] Legal and Regulatory Updates - **Supreme Court of Chile Ruling**: - Tianqi received a final judgment regarding a Partnership Agreement with SQM and Codelco, dismissing a claim of illegality. This ruling is not expected to materially impact Tianqi's current profits [3][4] Financial Projections - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - Projected EPS for 2025 is Rmb0.43, with estimates increasing to Rmb2.67 in 2026 and Rmb3.01 in 2027 [6] - **Revenue Projections**: - Expected revenue of Rmb11,087 million in 2025, increasing to Rmb21,117 million in 2026 and Rmb22,983 million in 2027 [6] Valuation Methodology - **Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Model**: - Assumes a Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) of 11.5% and a terminal growth rate for free cash flow of 2% beyond the forecast period of 2025-2033 [9] Risks - **Upside Risks**: - Higher-than-expected lithium prices and output growth in upstream and midstream resources [11] - **Downside Risks**: - Lower-than-expected lithium prices and output growth in upstream and midstream resources [11] Analyst Insights - **Industry View**: - The lithium industry is viewed as attractive, with expectations of strong performance over the next 12-18 months [6][34] Additional Information - **52-Week Stock Price Range**: - HK$60.30 to HK$19.00 [6] - **Average Daily Trading Value**: - HK$180 million [6] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding Tianqi Lithium Industries Inc., highlighting financial performance, market dynamics, legal updates, and future projections.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Tianqi Lithium Industries experienced a significant stock decline, hitting the limit down price of 53.21 yuan, with a drop of 8.98%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 883.13 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 794.14 billion yuan, with a total transaction amount of 29.99 billion yuan as of the report date [1][2]. Group 2 - Tianqi Lithium is facing operational challenges, with a year-on-year revenue decline of 29.66% in Q3 2025 due to falling sales prices and volumes, compounded by a lawsuit setback that negatively impacted shareholder equity [2]. - The lithium industry is currently under pressure from market demand and price fluctuations, with a downward trend in lithium product prices affecting Tianqi Lithium's performance. Additionally, the anticipated majority ownership of SQM by Codelco starting in 2031 raises concerns about long-term investment returns for Tianqi Lithium [2]. - As a core player in the lithium mining sector, Tianqi Lithium's stock price is influenced by overall market sentiment towards lithium prices. A pessimistic outlook on lithium prices can lead to capital withdrawal from the sector, exacerbating downward pressure on Tianqi's stock price [2]. - Technical indicators such as MACD crossovers and stock price movements below the Bollinger Bands midline can trigger sell-offs by technical investors, further contributing to the stock's decline [2].

消息面上，天齐锂业就SQM与智利国家铜业公司战略合作提起的诉讼，以败诉告终。阿塔卡马盐湖的 核心锂业务将由智利国家铜业公司持有多数股权，并将由智利国家铜业公司自2031年起合并报表。 SQM的国有化将使得天齐锂业从SQM所获得的收益大幅降低。 天齐锂业在公告中指出，一旦上述合资事项正式生效，SQM未来收益可能减少，进而影响天齐锂业在 SQM的投资收益及分红，可能导致公司须对该投资计提减值准备。 智通财经APP获悉，天齐锂业(09696)再跌超8%，截至发稿，跌8.44%，报50.45港元，成交额1.35亿港 元。 ...

天齐锂业在公告中指出，一旦上述合资事项正式生效，SQM未来收益可能减少，进而影响天齐锂业在 SQM的投资收益及分红，可能导致公司须对该投资计提减值准备。 消息面上，天齐锂业就SQM与智利国家铜业公司战略合作提起的诉讼，以败诉告终。阿塔卡马盐湖的 核心锂业务将由智利国家铜业公司持有多数股权，并将由智利国家铜业公司自2031年起合并报表。 SQM的国有化将使得天齐锂业从SQM所获得的收益大幅降低。 天齐锂业（002466）(09696)再跌超8%，截至发稿，跌8.44%，报50.45港元，成交额1.35亿港元。 ...