来源：今日有色 自春节假期归来之后，受消息面多方扰动，碳酸锂期货连续三个交易日接连拉涨，2月26日盘中更是跳 空高开，开盘涨幅一度高达11.42%，盘中最高一度攀升至187700元/吨，刷新1月26日以来的新高，但随 后涨幅明显收窄，截至日间收盘，碳酸锂期货主连以3.47%的涨幅报173660元/吨。 现货价格方面，据SMM现货报价显示，春节假期归来之后，电池级碳酸锂现货报价也上涨明显，截至2 月26日，电池级碳酸锂现货报价涨至16.8~17.8万元/吨，均价报17.3万元/吨，较2月13日的14.375万元/吨 上涨29250元/吨，涨幅达20.35%。 | CASTING AND A BALLE 电池级碳酸锂 元/吨 | | | | 订阅短信服务 ■ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 168000 ~ 178000 ~ 173000 +11250 / +6.96% | | | | | | 更新日期: 2026-02-26 | | | | | | 规格: | Li2CO3≥99.5% | 含税: | 含增值税 | | | 参考标准: | Li2CO3含量至少99.5%, ...

2月26日，港股市场集体高开，其中恒生指数涨0.95%报27019.74点，恒生科技指数涨0.46%报5284.51 点，国企指数涨0.49%报9078.96点，红筹指数涨0.31%报4480.2点；昨日港股三大指数走势分化，恒指 盘中一度涨近1%，展现出一定的上行动力；然而恒科指数却冲高回落，尾盘再度翻绿。 盘面上，大型科技股多走高，腾讯控股涨1.24%，京东集团涨0.47%，小米集团涨0.45%，网易跌 1.85%，快手涨0.98%，哔哩哔哩涨0.52%；锂矿股多数高开，天齐锂业涨6.11%，赣锋锂业涨5.48%，长 和涨2.42%；内房股活跃，越秀地产涨超2%；汽车股分化，比亚迪股份涨近1%，喜相逢集团跌超1%。 业绩有喜有忧，资本运作活跃业绩增长企业亮点纷呈 先声药业2025财年收入约人民币77亿元至人民币78亿元，同比增约16.0%至17.6%，在医药领域展现出 稳健的发展态势。 玖龙纸业发布截至2025年12月31日止六个月中期业绩，收入372.21亿元，同比增加11.22%；净利润 19.66亿元，同比大增318.78%，业绩爆发式增长令人瞩目。 海螺创业拟获海螺集团收购额外股权。 珩湾科技拟议 ...

（原标题：港股概念追踪|津巴布韦暂停出口锂精矿和原矿 碳酸锂合约大涨（附概念股）） 北京时间2月26日，碳酸锂连续主力合约日内触及涨停，现报185000.00元。 津巴布韦已暂停出口锂精矿和原矿，此举旨在推动矿业公司在该国建立加工业务。津巴布韦矿业部长周 三表示，该出口禁令立即生效，直至另行通知。非洲各国政府一直试图迫使矿业公司在当地精炼矿产， 以从其国家资源中获取更大的经济收益。 锂矿相关概念港股企业： 赣锋锂业 (01772)：公司在津巴布韦拥有Goulamina锂辉石项目（控股50%），该项目规模巨大，且配套 建设了选矿厂。虽然主要产出是精矿，但赣锋在全球范围内拥有极强的调配能力和下游转化产能。 作为全球锂业龙头，赣锋对上游资源的掌控力极强。若其津巴布韦项目已具备符合新规的深加工能力 （或能快速调整），将直接受益于供给收缩带来的锂价反弹。此外，其庞大的库存和多元化来源（澳 洲、阿根廷等）可对冲单一地区风险。 天齐锂业 (09696)：天齐的核心资产在澳洲（Greenbushes）和智利（SQM），但其全球供应链管理能力 极强。天齐本身在津巴布韦直接敞口较小，主要受锂价上涨的宏观利好驱动。津巴布韦禁运会减 ...

去年，该国曾表示将于2027年禁止锂精矿出口，这是促使外国矿业公司在当地发展精炼业务努力的一部 分。 北京时间2月26日，碳酸锂连续主力合约日内触及涨停，现报185000.00元。 津巴布韦已暂停出口锂精矿和原矿，此举旨在推动矿业公司在该国建立加工业务。津巴布韦矿业部长周 三表示，该出口禁令立即生效，直至另行通知。非洲各国政府一直试图迫使矿业公司在当地精炼矿产， 以从其国家资源中获取更大的经济收益。 根据官方数据，津巴布韦拥有非洲最大的锂储量之一，也是全球主要生产国之一，估计资源量为1.26亿 吨。津巴布韦矿业部长表示，只有在矿商遵守政府要求的情况下，禁令才会解除。 赣锋锂业（002460）(01772)：公司在津巴布韦拥有Goulamina锂辉石项目(控股50%)，该项目规模巨 大，且配套建设了选矿厂。虽然主要产出是精矿，但赣锋在全球范围内拥有极强的调配能力和下游转化 产能。 作为全球锂业龙头，赣锋对上游资源的掌控力极强。若其津巴布韦项目已具备符合新规的深加工能力 (或能快速调整)，将直接受益于供给收缩带来的锂价反弹。此外，其庞大的库存和多元化来源(澳洲、阿 根廷等)可对冲单一地区风险。 天齐锂业（0024 ...

Group 1: Futures Market - The lithium carbonate market at Guangzhou Futures Exchange continues to show strength, with the main contract LC2605 opening at 165,400 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 171,440 CNY/ton, closing at 167,840 CNY/ton, a rise of 6,840 CNY or 3.40% from the previous day [1] - Trading volume reached 322,727 contracts, with open interest increasing by 11,857 contracts to 377,037, indicating a strong influx of capital and bullish sentiment [1] Group 2: Spot Market - The domestic lithium carbonate spot market experienced a significant surge, with battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) averaging 163,750 CNY/ton, up 10,250 CNY or 6.68%, and industrial-grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) averaging 161,750 CNY/ton, also up 10,250 CNY or 6.77% [1] - Supply-side factors contributing to price increases include unexpected disruptions in overseas lithium resource supply and seasonal reductions in domestic production due to the Spring Festival and routine maintenance [1] Group 3: Demand Drivers - Demand remains robust despite the off-peak season, driven by energy storage and policy incentives, with the new power system construction and long-duration energy storage development opening up long-term growth for lithium battery storage [2] - The adjustment of export tax rebates for battery products has led to a surge in demand as downstream battery companies and overseas clients rush to place orders before the tax rate changes [2] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The current lithium carbonate market is experiencing a value reassessment driven by overseas supply disruptions, domestic seasonal production cuts, policy-driven demand front-loading, and strong institutional bullish sentiment [3] - The financial attributes of the lithium carbonate futures market are increasing, with significant open interest contrasting with limited spot supply, amplifying the impact of capital and expectations on short-term prices [2][3] Group 5: Future Outlook - The consensus in the industry is that the price center for lithium carbonate is expected to rise, supported by long-term positive demand for energy storage and slow release of upstream resources [4] - The strong market trend initiated in February may signal the beginning of a new cycle in the lithium resource market, driven by supply-demand rebalancing and event-driven factors [4]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong lithium battery sector has seen a short-term rise, with leading companies such as Zhengli New Energy, Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, and CATL experiencing significant gains due to sustained downstream demand and strong performance in lithium carbonate futures [1] - The export tax rebate policy for lithium batteries will be adjusted starting April 1, 2026, leading to a notable "export rush" effect in the first quarter, with concentrated release of stage-specific replenishment demand [3] - Carbonate lithium futures surged after the Spring Festival, with the main contract on the Guangzheng Futures Exchange breaking through 170,000 yuan per ton, indicating a significant return of speculative funds post-holiday [3] Group 2 - According to a report from Guojin Securities, the upcoming domestic energy storage capacity subsidy policy and new energy vehicle replacement policies are expected to drive a new upward cycle in lithium carbonate prices, benefiting the overall inflation in the industry chain [3] - The pre-production data reflects high industry prosperity, with cumulative year-on-year growth in battery, positive electrode, negative electrode, separator, and electrolyte pre-production in February 2026 ranging from 35% to 60% [3] - UBS has released reports during the Spring Festival, significantly raising price forecasts for spodumene and lithium carbonate, indicating that the global lithium market has entered a third super cycle, driven by the balance of electric vehicle demand and explosive growth in energy storage needs [4]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - As of the close on February 24, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Shanghai Silver rose over 12%, Lithium Carbonate rose over 10%, Container Shipping European Line and SC Crude Oil rose over 6%, Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil (LU) and Platinum rose over 5%, and Palladium and Butadiene Rubber rose over 4%. On the downside, Polysilicon fell over 4%, and Coke and Live Pigs fell over 2%. Stock index futures and treasury bond futures also showed varying degrees of increase [4][5]. 2. Core Views - The overall futures market showed a pattern of more rises than falls, and different varieties were affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policies, and geopolitical situations, with different short-term trends [4][5]. 3. Variety Analysis Copper - Shanghai Copper opened low and moved high, with a slight increase. The US customs policy changed, and the supply and demand of copper showed a marginal improvement expectation. With the downstream recovery, copper demand is expected to increase, and the short-term copper price is mainly volatile and strong [7]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium Carbonate opened high and moved high, with a significant increase. Affected by seasonal and holiday factors, the supply was tight in the short term. The policy window period and positive price predictions stimulated the market, and the short-term trend was strong [8][9]. Crude Oil - OPEC+ members will maintain the production plan, US oil inventories decreased, and the winter storm may stimulate demand. The Iran - US negotiation situation is uncertain, and the short-term crude oil price is expected to be strong and volatile [10][11]. Asphalt - The asphalt supply and demand were weak, and the开工 rate and production were at a low level. The Venezuelan crude oil supply was restricted, and the price is expected to fluctuate with the crude oil price. It is recommended to take a reverse arbitrage strategy [12]. PP - The PP downstream开工率 decreased seasonally, the企业开工率 was at a low - to - neutral level, and the inventory was at a neutral level. The cost increased, and the supply - demand pattern improved limitedly. It is recommended to continue to narrow the L - PP spread [13][14]. Plastic - The plastic开工率 increased, the downstream开工率 decreased seasonally, and the inventory was at a neutral level. The new production capacity was put into operation, and the supply - demand pattern improved limitedly. Continue to narrow the L - PP spread [15]. PVC - The upstream calcium carbide price decreased, the PVC开工率 was at a neutral level, the inventory was high, and the real - time demand was weak. However, there are policy and maintenance expectations, and the price is expected to be volatile [16][17]. Coking Coal - Coking Coal opened high and moved low, with a decline. The import coal supply recovered, the domestic mine开工率 was low, and the downstream demand lacked incremental support. The short - term price is under pressure [18]. Urea - The urea futures opened high and moved high, and the spot price rose. The Indian tender supported the market sentiment. With the upcoming spring plowing season, the price is expected to be stable and strong, but the increase may be limited [19][20].

Group 1 - The lithium carbonate market experienced a strong opening after the Lunar New Year, with the main futures contract opening high and reaching a peak of 165,800 yuan/ton, marking a daily increase of 10.56%, the largest since its listing [1] - The spot market also saw a rise, with battery-grade lithium carbonate averaging 152,000 yuan/ton, up 8,250 yuan/ton (5.74%), and industrial-grade lithium carbonate averaging 148,500 yuan/ton, also up 8,250 yuan/ton (5.88%) [1] - The A-share lithium mining index rose by 3.77%, with major stocks like Shengxin Lithium Energy and Yongxing Materials seeing increases of over 5% [1] Group 2 - UBS raised its lithium price forecast significantly, predicting an average price of 170,000 yuan/ton for 2026, a 26% increase, and 200,000 yuan/ton for 2027, driven by growing demand from electric vehicles and energy storage [2] - A fire at a lithium salt factory in Jiangxi, a key production area, raised concerns about production stability, contributing to the upward price pressure [2] - The U.S. Supreme Court's decision to eliminate certain additional tariffs is expected to lower the overall tariff costs for Chinese energy storage products exported to the U.S. by about 5%, positively impacting the profit margins of related companies [3]

Core Viewpoint - The rapid rise in lithium carbonate futures is shifting the lithium industry from a "real-time loose" trading framework to a "forward tight" pricing logic, driven by reduced capital expenditure and accelerated storage demand, leading to heightened expectations for lithium price increases [1][2]. Supply - Capital expenditure (CAPEX) in the lithium sector has entered a cyclical low due to price declines, with global lithium resource capacity growth projected at only 17.1% for 2024-2025, and 20%-25% for 2026-2027, indicating limited effective incremental supply [5][7]. - Regulatory changes, such as the new Mineral Resources Law effective July 1, 2025, and stricter mining rights reviews in regions like Jiangxi and Qinghai, are creating structural delays in supply [7]. Demand - The key demand driver is energy storage, with global lithium demand expected to reach approximately 194,000 tons of LCE in 2026, with energy storage demand projected to grow by about 55% year-on-year, accounting for nearly 30% of total demand [8]. - The expansion of wind and solar installations, grid upgrades, and increased reliance on electrochemical storage for AI infrastructure are contributing to this demand growth [8]. Price - The lithium industry is expected to complete a phase of bottoming out by 2025 and enter an upward turning point, with pricing logic shifting from current loose conditions to future scarcity [10][12]. - Price forecasts for lithium carbonate in 2026 are set between 120,000 to 200,000 yuan per ton, with potential for further increases under tight supply conditions [12]. Geopolitical and Policy Factors - Lithium is classified as a "critical mineral" in the U.S., EU, and China, which may amplify market pricing due to policy adjustments and strategic reserve behaviors from resource countries [14]. - Various geopolitical factors, such as potential nationalization of lithium resources in Chile and Mexico's classification of lithium as a strategic mineral, could impact supply dynamics [14].

Group 1 - The lithium carbonate market experienced a strong opening after the Lunar New Year, with the main futures contract opening high and reaching a maximum of 165,800 yuan/ton, marking a daily increase of 10.56%, the largest since its listing [1] - The spot market also saw a rise, with battery-grade lithium carbonate averaging 152,000 yuan/ton, up 8,250 yuan/ton (5.74%), and industrial-grade lithium carbonate averaging 148,500 yuan/ton, also up 8,250 yuan/ton (5.88%) [1] - The A-share lithium mining index surged by 3.77%, with major stocks like Shengxin Lithium Energy and Yongxing Materials seeing increases of over 5% [1] Group 2 - UBS raised its lithium price forecast significantly, predicting an average price of 170,000 yuan/ton for 2026, and 200,000 yuan/ton for 2027, driven by increasing demand from electric vehicles and global energy storage [2] - A fire at a lithium salt factory in Jiangxi, a major production area, raised concerns about production stability, contributing to the upward price pressure [2] - The U.S. Supreme Court's decision to eliminate certain tariffs is expected to lower the overall tariff costs for Chinese energy storage products exported to the U.S. by about 5%, positively impacting the profit margins of related companies [3]