Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is focusing on optimizing store models and enhancing quality, with a shift from aggressive expansion to store upgrades and closures, which is expected to improve operating profit margins [7] - The company anticipates a recovery in 2025, driven by the closure of unprofitable stores and the introduction of a new store model that is expected to contribute to revenue growth and improved profitability [7] - The supply chain layout is gradually being implemented, with a central kitchen in Guangzhou expected to be operational in 2025, and further expansions planned for other regions in 2026-2027 [7] - The company forecasts significant growth in net profit from 2025 to 2027, with expected net profits of 135.26 million, 163.63 million, and 202.98 million respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 142.37%, 20.97%, and 24.05% [1][7] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 6,074 million in 2024 to 6,895 million in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 7.17% [1][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 0.04 in 2024 to 0.15 in 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [1][8] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 56.69 in 2024 to 15.59 in 2027, suggesting an improvement in valuation as earnings grow [1][8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to several companies including Haidilao, China Feihe, and Yihai International, while Budweiser APAC is rated as "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the spot and futures cost of dairy products increased month-on-month, while most other consumer goods saw a decline in costs [2][38]. - The overall cost indices for six categories of consumer goods monitored by HTI mostly fell, with specific changes in spot and futures indices for soft drinks, condiments, dairy products, frozen foods, beer, and instant noodles [38]. Summary by Category Beer - The spot cost index decreased by 0.81% month-on-month, and the futures index decreased by 2.84% [39]. - Year-to-date, the spot and futures indices have cumulatively changed by -0.94% and -7.98% respectively [39][14]. Condiments - The spot cost index increased by 0.3% month-on-month, while the futures index decreased by 2.7% [40]. - Year-to-date, the spot and futures indices have cumulatively changed by -0.09% and -5.91% respectively [40][18]. Dairy Products - The spot cost index increased by 0.03% month-on-month, and the futures index increased by 0.33% [41]. - Year-to-date, the spot and futures indices have cumulatively changed by -0.02% and 2.38% respectively [41][22]. Instant Noodles - The spot cost index decreased by 1.22% month-on-month, and the futures index decreased by 1.26% [42]. - Year-to-date, the spot and futures indices have cumulatively changed by -3.31% and -4.11% respectively [42][26]. Frozen Foods - The spot cost index decreased by 0.57% month-on-month, and the futures index decreased by 0.74% [43]. - Year-to-date, the spot and futures indices have cumulatively changed by -1.52% and -2.32% respectively [43][30]. Soft Drinks - The spot cost index increased by 0.34% month-on-month, while the futures index decreased by 0.78% [34]. - Year-to-date, the spot and futures indices have cumulatively changed by -3.76% and -5.22% respectively [34][33].

证券研究报告 ——餐饮月度专题 西式快餐与咖啡拓店强劲，茶饮分化加剧 行业评级：看好 2025年5月19日 2 5年1-4月累计 净开店数量 2 5年1-4月累计 净开店增幅 2 5年1-4月累计 净开店数量 2 5年1-4月累计 净开店增幅 茶 饮 西式快餐 咖 啡 火 锅 酸菜鱼 卤 味 小酒馆 蜜雪冰城 肯德基 书亦烧仙草 麦当劳 古 茗 华莱士 茶百道 必胜客 都 可 达美乐 益禾堂 尊宝披萨 沪上阿姨 塔斯汀 甜啦啦 萨莉亚 一点点 分 甜 瑞幸咖啡 黑泷堂 星巴克 奈雪的茶 幸运咖 喜 茶 库迪咖啡 茶颜悦色 乐乐茶 霸王茶姬 海底捞 太 二 九毛九 鱼你在一起 怂 小鱼号 呷哺呷哺 江渔儿 凑 凑 董小姐 人 份 巴奴火锅 紫燕百味鸡 海伦司 绝味鸭脖 胡桃里 周黑鸭 贰麻酒馆 2945 9 % 585 5 % -359 -7 % 228 3 % 184 2 % -246 -1 % -393 -5 % 158 4 % coco -276 -7 % 125 12% 9 2 2 % -3 8 -1 % 7 7 1 % 565 6 % -145 -2 % 4 3 8 % -5 7 -2 % 7 -10 ...

——餐饮月度专题 西式快餐与咖啡拓店强劲，茶饮分化加剧 行业评级：看好 2025年5月19日 证券研究报告 | 分析师 | 钟烨晨 | | --- | --- | | 联系方式 | zhongyechen@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230523060004 | 总览 咖啡/西式快餐门店增长强劲，茶饮分化加剧 2 5年1-4月累计 净开店数量 2 5年1-4月累计 净开店增幅 2 5年1-4月累计 净开店数量 2 5年1-4月累计 净开店增幅 茶 饮 西式快餐 咖 啡 火 锅 酸菜鱼 卤 味 小酒馆 蜜雪冰城 肯德基 书亦烧仙草 麦当劳 古 茗 华莱士 茶百道 必胜客 都 可 达美乐 益禾堂 尊宝披萨 沪上阿姨 塔斯汀 甜啦啦 萨莉亚 一点点 分 甜 瑞幸咖啡 黑泷堂 星巴克 奈雪的茶 幸运咖 喜 茶 库迪咖啡 茶颜悦色 乐乐茶 霸王茶姬 海底捞 太 二 九毛九 鱼你在一起 怂 小鱼号 呷哺呷哺 江渔儿 凑 凑 董小姐 人 份 巴奴火锅 紫燕百味鸡 海伦司 绝味鸭脖 胡桃里 周黑鸭 贰麻酒馆 2945 9 % 585 5 % -359 -7 % 228 3 % 184 2 % -24 ...

在多项积极因素的共同作用下，市场信心逐步恢复，一季度中国消费市场持续升温。数据显示，一季度 线下消费热度指数同比增长14.2%，较上季度升高9.1个百分点，其中生活服务消费热度指数同比增长 18.3%，餐饮业同比增长14.5%。 消费企稳、内需扩容的大趋势下，经历过往几年的回调，餐饮板块的估值吸引力正在提升，而诸多餐饮 上市公司的年报表现，也展现出了强劲的业绩韧性。 营收利润双双实现双位数增长 业绩韧性凸显 在一揽子促消费政策推动下，过去一年内国内餐饮行业展现出较快复苏趋势。国家统计局数据显示， 2024年全年国内生产总值134.9万亿元，比2023年增长5%;社会消费品零售总额48.78万亿元，增长 3.5%。其中，全国餐饮收入55718亿元，增长5.3%;限额以上单位餐饮收入15298亿元，增长3%。 从增速来看，2024年全国餐饮总收入同增5.3%，增速较上年提升2.1个百分点，且显著高于同期GDP增 速和社会消费品零售总额增速，但与此同时限额以上餐饮收入同比增速仅有3.0%，表明中小餐饮企业 及个体户的增长更为活跃，而头部企业受外部压力影响增速则有所放缓。 近日，随着出口相关板块承压、政策重心转向扩大 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides investment ratings for various companies in the consumer staples sector, with "Outperform" ratings for companies like Haidilao, China Feihe, and China Resources Beer, while Budweiser APAC is rated "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a mixed trend in the cost indices of six categories of consumer goods, with spot cost indices for beer, frozen food, dairy products, seasonings, instant noodles, and soft drinks showing changes of +2.69%, +1.67%, +1.09%, -0.12%, -0.18%, and -1.58% respectively, while futures cost indices showed changes of -3.78%, +1.38%, +0.46%, -1.64%, -1.64%, and -2.61% respectively [36]. Summary by Category Beer - The spot cost index for beer increased by 2.69% compared to last month, while the futures index decreased by 3.78%. Year-to-date, the spot index has changed by -0.08% and the futures index by -5.24% [12][37]. Seasonings - The spot cost index for seasonings decreased by 0.12%, and the futures index decreased by 1.64%. The price of soybeans has been rising due to limited domestic supply and decreased imports [16][38]. Dairy Products - The spot cost index for dairy products increased by 1.09%, and the futures index increased by 0.46%. Fresh milk prices have stabilized at 3.08 yuan per kilogram, with oversupply continuing to pressure prices [19][39]. Instant Noodles - The spot cost index for instant noodles decreased by 0.18%, and the futures index decreased by 1.64%. Palm oil prices have fallen due to increased production and inventory accumulation [24][40]. Frozen Food - The spot cost index for frozen food increased by 1.67%, and the futures index increased by 1.38%. Vegetable prices have decreased significantly due to increased supply [28][41]. Soft Drinks - The spot cost index for soft drinks decreased by 1.58%, and the futures index decreased by 2.61%. Prices are under pressure due to weak demand and capacity expansion [32][42].

Financial Performance - Jiumaojiu International Holdings Limited reported a revenue of HK$1.2 billion for the fiscal year 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15%[2]. - The company achieved a net profit of HK$300 million, which is a 20% increase compared to the previous year[2]. - Revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, reached RMB 6,073,644, an increase from RMB 5,985,850 in 2023, representing a growth of 1.5%[27]. - Profit for the year was RMB 44,800, down from RMB 479,998 in 2023, indicating a decrease of 90.6%[27]. - Total comprehensive income for the year was RMB 104,787, compared to RMB 504,335 in 2023, a decrease of 79.2%[27]. - Profit before taxation decreased to RMB 74,008 in 2024 from RMB 636,384 in 2023, reflecting a decline of 88.4%[27]. - Core operating profit fell to RMB 252,272 in 2024 from RMB 632,077 in 2023, a drop of 60.1%[27]. - Store level operating profit for 2024 was RMB 748,320, a decline from RMB 1,076,967 in 2023, representing a decrease of 30.4%[27]. - The Group recorded a profit from equity investments at fair value through other comprehensive income of RMB 14.8 million for 2024, compared to a loss of RMB 8.9 million in 2023[141]. - Profit for the year plummeted by 90.7% from RMB 480.0 million in 2023 to RMB 44.8 million in 2024[140]. Customer and Market Growth - User data indicates that the number of active customers grew by 25% to 1.5 million in 2024[2]. - The company expects revenue growth to continue at a rate of 10-15% for the next fiscal year, driven by new product launches and market expansion[2]. - Jiumaojiu plans to introduce three new restaurant concepts in 2025, targeting a 30% increase in customer footfall[2]. - Market expansion efforts include opening 20 new locations across China in the next year, aiming for a 50% increase in market presence[2]. - The Group operates Tai Er restaurants in multiple countries including Singapore, Malaysia, Canada, the United States, Thailand, and Indonesia, with plans for further expansion in regions with significant Chinese populations[83]. Operational Challenges - The company reported a significant decline in profitability metrics, indicating challenges in operational efficiency and market conditions[27]. - Same store sales for Tai Er (self-operated) decreased by 18.8% to RMB 3,308,988 in 2024, while Song Hot Pot saw a decline of 31.6% to RMB 348,447[40]. - The Group's restaurant performance declined in 2024 due to external environmental changes and intensified competition in the catering market[64]. - The average spending per customer in 2024 decreased for most brands, with Tai Er at RMB 71 (down from RMB 75), Song Hot Pot at RMB 103 (down from RMB 113), and Jiu Mao Jiu at RMB 55 (down from RMB 58)[62]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is investing HK$100 million in technology upgrades to enhance customer experience and operational efficiency[2]. - The company is exploring potential acquisitions to diversify its portfolio and strengthen its market position[2]. - The company has implemented a new marketing strategy focusing on digital channels, which is expected to increase brand awareness by 40%[2]. - Ongoing research and development efforts are aimed at introducing new products and technologies to strengthen market position[27]. - The Group is focusing on optimizing product offerings and enhancing customer experience to strengthen brand competitiveness[77]. Financial Position and Ratios - Total assets decreased from RMB 6,520.9 million in 2023 to RMB 6,488.6 million in 2024, while total liabilities increased from RMB 3,163.9 million to RMB 3,337.5 million[170]. - The liabilities-to-assets ratio increased from 48.5% in 2023 to 51.4% in 2024, indicating a higher financial leverage[170]. - The current ratio decreased from 2.00 in 2023 to 1.45 in 2024, suggesting a decline in short-term financial health[171]. - Cash and cash equivalents decreased by 54.3% from RMB 1,326.9 million as of December 31, 2023 to RMB 607.0 million as of December 31, 2024, primarily due to dividends paid and purchases of non-current financial assets[177][180]. - The gearing ratio increased from 7.3% as of December 31, 2023 to 12.0% as of December 31, 2024, mainly due to an increase in bank loans and a decrease in total equity from dividend payments[178][181]. Employee and Staff Costs - Staff costs increased by 13.1% from RMB 1,544.1 million in 2023 to RMB 1,747.0 million in 2024, with its percentage of revenue increasing from 25.8% to 28.8%[112]. - As of December 31, 2024, the Group had a total of 20,735 employees, including outsourced personnel[199]. Future Outlook - The management remains optimistic about the overall market conditions and consumer spending trends in the upcoming quarters[2]. - Future outlook includes potential strategies for market expansion and product innovation to recover from the current downturn[27]. - The Group plans to adopt a more prudent restaurant opening strategy in 2025, with no specific target for new openings to ensure a 100% success rate for each restaurant[74].

据了解，此前太二酸菜鱼作为九毛九的核心业务，长期贡献超过七成的营收，然而，最近一年其业务数 据并不好看。 根据最新的2024年业绩公告，九毛九2024年实现营收60.74亿元，同比增加1.47%；归母净利润5580.70 万元，同比下降87.69%；年度溢利4480万元，同比减少90.7%，大幅缩水。 对于业绩下滑，九毛九归因于三方面原因：餐饮市场竞争加剧叠加外部环境变化导致同店收入下滑；闭 店及经营不善引发的一次性闭店与资产减值损失约1.35亿元；政府补贴及税收优惠减少，叠加汇兑损失 增加。 据了解，作为九毛九营收占比超七成的"现金牛"，太二酸菜鱼增长已显疲态。财报显示，2024年太二酸 菜鱼实现收入44.1亿元，同比下滑1.4%；翻台率从4.1次/天降至3.5次/天，顾客人均消费从75元降至71 元，同时太二酸菜鱼同店销售额也同比下降18.8%。 对此，福建华策品牌定位咨询创始人詹军豪在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，面对业绩下滑，太二 酸菜鱼的变化是应对市场变化的必然选择，但调整效果如何还有待观察。太二酸菜鱼增加菜品可能吸引 到更多消费者，尤其是对酸菜鱼兴趣不大的顾客，但也可能让原有的品牌定位被稀释，影 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][8]. Core Insights - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 6.074 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.47%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 55.807 million yuan, a significant decline of 87.69%. The core operating profit was 252 million yuan, down 60.09% year-on-year [2][6]. - The company is set to enhance its supply chain capabilities with the expected launch of the Nansha supply chain center in Guangzhou in 2025, which is anticipated to lower costs related to raw materials. Additionally, the establishment of supermarket sales and online retail businesses in 2024 is expected to broaden external market opportunities [2][9]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 6.45 billion, 7.086 billion, and 7.825 billion yuan, with net profits of 194 million, 301 million, and 334 million yuan respectively [2][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 6.074 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 1.47%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 55.807 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 87.69%. The core operating profit was 252 million yuan, down 60.09% year-on-year [2][6]. Operational Insights - The company faced challenges in restaurant performance, leading to a cautious approach in asset impairment provisions. The impairment losses for properties, plants, and equipment increased by 411.9% year-on-year, reaching 112 million yuan [6][9]. - In Q1 2025, the average daily sales for the main brands showed a slight increase compared to Q4 2024, with stable per-customer spending for two consecutive quarters [6][9]. Brand and Store Adjustments - In 2024, the company opened 150 new restaurants while closing 69, resulting in a total of 807 restaurants by the end of the year. The new brand "Shanwaimian" showed promising potential with a table turnover rate of 4.3 times per day and an average spending of 87 yuan [9][9]. - The company continued to adjust its brand matrix, with a reduction in the number of stores to 780 in Q1 2025, primarily due to closures in the "Tai Er" brand [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [4] Core Views - The company is facing performance pressure due to external environmental factors, with a cautious expansion strategy focusing on new stores and menu adjustments [2][3] - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 6.074 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 56 million yuan, a significant decrease of 87.7% [1][3] - The company plans to optimize its brand portfolio and enhance supply chain capabilities, with new store openings and menu innovations expected to drive future growth [3][8] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a core operating profit of 252 million yuan, down 60.1% year-on-year [1] - For the second half of 2024, the company recorded a net profit of -16 million yuan, compared to 231 million yuan in the same period last year [3] - The revenue breakdown by brand for 2024 shows that Taier, Jiumaojiu, Song Hotpot, and other brands generated revenues of 4.413 billion, 546 million, 895 million, and 220 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -1.4%, -13.2%, +11.0%, and +201.4% [1] Store Expansion and Operations - The company opened 150 new stores in 2024, including 95 Taier stores and 28 Song Hotpot stores, while closing 69 stores [2] - As of the end of 2024, the total number of Taier stores reached 634, with a year-on-year increase of 56 stores [2] - The same-store sales for Taier decreased by 18.8% in 2024, while Song Hotpot saw a decline of 31.6% [2] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 6.761 billion, 7.878 billion, and 9.292 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 99 million, 263 million, and 411 million yuan [9] - The company is expected to maintain a cautious approach to expansion while optimizing existing stores and menu offerings [8]