Investment Rating - The report provides an investment rating for various companies in the consumer staples sector, with several companies rated as "Outperform" and one as "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that soybean prices have risen by more than 10% since the beginning of the year, impacting the cost structure of essential consumer goods [9]. - The cost indices for six categories of consumer goods showed mixed trends, with spot cost indices for instant noodles, soft drinks, frozen food, condiments, dairy products, and beer changing by +0.56%, +0.55%, +0.04%, -0.18%, -0.94%, and -1.89% respectively [42]. - The futures cost indices for the same categories changed by +1.22%, -0.27%, +0.41%, +0.28%, -1.38%, and -0.26% respectively [42]. Summary by Category Beer - As of June 27, the spot cost index for beer was 114.03, down 0.21% from the previous week, and the futures index was 114.41, down 0.30% [13]. - Year-to-date, the spot and futures indices have declined by 2.82% and 8.15% respectively [43]. Condiments - The spot cost index for condiments was 102.91, down 0.22%, while the futures index was 103, down 1.21% [17]. - Year-to-date changes were -0.34% for spot and -5.92% for futures [44]. Dairy Products - The spot cost index for dairy products was 103.80, down 0.02%, and the futures index was 95.23, down 0.77% [22]. - Fresh milk prices dropped to 3.04 yuan per kilogram, a 7.6% year-on-year decrease [45]. Instant Noodles - The spot cost index for instant noodles was 103.07, down 0.75%, and the futures index was 104.27, down 2.38% [27]. - Year-to-date declines were 2.81% for spot and 3.87% for futures [46]. Frozen Food - The spot cost index for frozen food was 119.28, up 0.02%, and the futures index was 118.82, down 1.35% [32]. - Year-to-date declines were 1.09% for spot and 1.86% for futures [47]. Soft Drinks - The spot cost index for soft drinks was 109.02, down 0.53%, while the futures index was 112.89, up 0.13% [36]. - Year-to-date declines were 3.36% for spot and 6.54% for futures [48].

Summary of Jiamaojiu Group Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Jiamaojiu Group - **Brands**: Taier, Song Hotpot, Jiamaojiu Key Points Industry Performance - Daily sales for Jiamaojiu's brands have declined year-on-year: Taier down 21%, Song Hotpot down 24%, Jiamaojiu down 19% [2][3] - However, there are signs of recovery with month-on-month improvements observed in April and May, particularly after the May Day holiday [2][3] New Business Model - Taier has adjusted its menu structure to include more stir-fried dishes to cater to the increasing family customer base and the trend of consumption downgrade [2][4] - The introduction of live fish and fresh-cut beef has led to an average revenue increase of over 30% in new model stores, with average customer spending in Guangzhou rising from 75 RMB to 80 RMB [2][5] Store Management - As of May, 51 underperforming stores have been closed, with plans to close an additional 70-80 stores by year-end, while aiming to remodel 100-150 stores [2][6] - Total store count in mainland China stands at 538, with an additional 31 stores in Hong Kong and overseas, bringing the total to 585 [6] Customer Demographics - The primary customer base remains family-oriented, with limited impact from the decline in business dining [8] - There is a trend of increasing customer expectations regarding dining environment, service, and quality, prompting restaurants to upgrade their offerings [8] Financial Adjustments - A significant impairment charge of 112 million RMB was recorded last year, with expectations of reduced closure losses this year due to prior provisions [10] - The company has seen an increase in the proportion of takeout sales, with Jiamaojiu's takeout share rising from 20% to 23% [11] Competition and Market Strategy - JD.com’s takeout service has significantly contributed to sales growth, with peak contributions reaching around 10% [11][12] - The company is cautious about new store openings, focusing instead on upgrading existing locations [17] Overseas Expansion - The company plans to open a few new stores in Southeast Asia and North America, with a focus on steady growth rather than rapid expansion [18][27] Product Development - Collaboration with Sam's Club on ready-to-eat meals has been successful, with projected retail sales exceeding 100 million RMB this year [19] - The introduction of fresh ingredients is expected to enhance supply chain efficiency and profitability [15] Employee Incentives - Adjustments to the employee incentive structure have been made to align with operational performance, focusing on customer satisfaction and team retention [20] Cost Management - The company anticipates stable overhead costs, with ongoing negotiations for rent reductions across its stores [26] Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about adapting to market changes and enhancing operational efficiency through strategic adjustments in its business model and store management [7][16]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant decline on June 19, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 1.99%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropping by 2.13%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index decreasing by 2.42% [1] Consumer Sector - The consumer sector saw notable declines, particularly in tobacco, automotive dealerships, airlines, baby products, holiday concepts, and new consumption concepts. Key stocks included Smoore International down 9.95%, China Southern Airlines down 4.65%, and Xiabuxiabu down 9.21% [1] Healthcare Sector - The healthcare sector, including internet healthcare, biopharmaceuticals, medical aesthetics, and pharmaceutical outsourcing, also performed poorly. Stocks such as Weimaitong fell by 7.86%, Alibaba Health by 5.26%, and Perfect Medical by 9.09% [2] Power and Renewable Energy Sector - The power and renewable energy sectors, including electric equipment, green energy, wind power, and solar energy stocks, faced declines. Notable drops included Goldwind Technology down 7.8% and China High-Speed Transmission down 8.03% [2] Securities Sector - Chinese brokerage stocks were under pressure, with China Galaxy down 5.13%, CICC down 5.21%, and Huatai Securities down 4.39% [3] Heavy Machinery and Construction Sector - Other sectors such as heavy machinery, building materials, high-speed rail infrastructure, and port transportation also weakened [4] Oil and Gas Sector - In contrast, some low-priced oil and gas stocks surged due to escalating conflicts in the Middle East, with China Oilfield Services rising by 138.74% and Jintai Energy rising by 52.94% [4]

招银国际发布研报称，将九毛九(09922)目标价，由2.56港元调高16.8%至2.99港元，投资评级维持"持 有"。该行预期，九毛九第二季同店销售改善，业绩反转符合预期。太二品牌在4月/5月/6月初的同店销 售明显优于第一季度。该行预计，第二季太二翻台率约3.3次，比第一季的3.1次有环比改善，主要是因 为去年基数低、竞争减少、假期延长和家电补贴带动消费情绪等。 九毛九宣布价值2亿的股分回购计划，并会独立于股利。公司在6月6日通过了回购不超过2亿元人民币股 分的计划，以2.68港元计约占市值6%。回购不影响分红政策(最少分派40%)，而该行预期2025财年分红 率为50%，股息率约2%。 报告指出，门市改造升级带来的影响比较正面。太二重点改造升级门市，强调食材鲜活和菜单丰富。今 年以来在广州翻新了三家大型店，每家投资180-200万元人民币、45天完工，周一到周四翻台率约4-5 次、周五、周末约6-8次。另外也有约20家小型店改造升级，单家花费20-30万元人民币、只要几天，改 造后同店销售提升约30%。管理层称销售增长约12%便可覆盖新增成本。上半年计划升级50家，7月将 达70家，下半年再调改100-1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a HOLD rating for Jiumaojiu with a target price raised to HK$ 2.99 from the previous HK$ 2.56, indicating an upside potential of 11.4% from the current price of HK$ 2.68 [1][3][14]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing a recovery in same-store sales (SSS), with a decline narrowing in 2Q25E, attributed to initial successes in store format upgrades. The sustainability of this recovery into 2H25E and FY26E is crucial [1][10]. - The management has implemented a store format upgrade focusing on fresh ingredients, which has shown positive results. The upgrades are expected to enhance traffic and sales significantly [10][14]. - The financial forecasts have been revised upwards, with net profit estimates for FY25E, FY26E, and FY27E increased by 9,042%, 33%, and 22% respectively, reflecting lower impairment losses and improved operating margins [14]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY25E are set at RMB 6,140 million, with a slight year-on-year growth of 1.1%. For FY26E and FY27E, revenue is expected to grow to RMB 6,911 million and RMB 7,088 million respectively [2][18]. - Operating profit is forecasted to increase from RMB 327.3 million in FY25E to RMB 532.6 million in FY26E, with net profit expected to rise from RMB 142 million in FY25E to RMB 298 million in FY26E [2][18]. - The report highlights a significant increase in diluted EPS for FY25E to RMB 0.103, reflecting a growth of 9,154.1% compared to the previous year [11][18]. Share Performance - The market capitalization of Jiumaojiu is approximately HK$ 3,897.3 million, with a 52-week high of HK$ 5.54 and a low of HK$ 2.19 [4]. - Recent share performance shows a 1-month increase of 3.9%, but a decline of 31.1% over the past 6 months [6]. Shareholding Structure - The largest shareholder is Mr. Guan Yi Hong, holding 37.4% of the shares, followed by JPMorgan Chase & Co with 7.5% [5]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a P/E ratio of 23.9x for FY25E, which is expected to decrease to 11.4x in FY26E and further to 9.5x in FY27E [2][18]. - The projected dividend yield for FY25E is approximately 2.1%, with a payout ratio assumed at 50% of net profit [14].

Group 1 - Longpan Technology (02465) saw a morning increase of over 10% due to the rising interest in solid-state batteries, which are recognized as the next core direction for power batteries, with policies, funding, and industry chains forming a three-pronged push [1] - WISCO Resources (01208) rose nearly 3% after announcing the approval and advancement of the Khoemacau expansion project, which includes the construction of a 1,200-person accommodation camp [1] - Dekang Agriculture (02419) increased by over 8%, reporting sales of 4.2971 million pigs and revenue of RMB 8.457 billion for the five months ending May 31, 2025 [1] - Huaxin Handbag International Holdings (02683) surged 20% following a profit warning, expecting a profit attributable to shareholders of approximately HKD 63 million to 67 million for the year ending March 31, 2025, compared to HKD 29 million in the same period last year [1] - New Town Development (01030) rose over 7% as it is reportedly advancing a USD issuance plan, with an expected issuance amount between USD 250 million and 300 million [1] Group 2 - China Overseas Property (02669) increased nearly 3% after announcing significant progress in overseas market expansion, signing an operational execution agreement for the new administrative capital's central business district in Egypt [2] - Pop Mart (09992) rose over 3%, with estimates for 2025 revenue and net profit reaching RMB 25 billion and 7 billion, respectively, exceeding market expectations by 15% [2] - Zhi Zi Cheng Technology (09911) increased by over 7% after announcing the establishment of its global headquarters in Hong Kong [2] - Shih Sih Pharmaceutical Group (02005) rose nearly 3% after obtaining production registration for a single-dose packaging of a specific eye drop from the National Medical Products Administration [2] - Lion King Holdings (02562) surged over 10% after announcing a non-binding investment intention to acquire at least 80% of a potential target company [2] Group 3 - Dongyangguang Changjiang Pharmaceutical (01558) rose over 5% after announcing a merger with its parent company through a share swap and plans for a main board listing [3] - Jiumaojiu (09922) opened over 3% higher after deciding to repurchase up to HKD 200 million of its shares in the open market [3] - Jingtai Holdings (02228) surged over 13% following a significant collaboration with China Pharmaceutical University to open an AI drug development technology platform [3] Group 4 - Zhixing Group Holdings (01539) rose over 9% after its Malaysian subsidiary launched the world's first ESG lamp certified for carbon credits at a conference [4] - Ruipu Lanjun (00666) increased over 3% after signing a strategic cooperation memorandum for commercial vehicle battery systems with Bakrie & Brothers Group in Indonesia [4] - Lijun Pharmaceutical (01513) rose over 4% after its innovative drug YJH-012's clinical trial application was accepted by the National Medical Products Administration [4] - Sanofi Pharmaceutical (01530) surged over 7% after granting exclusive global rights for its PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody to Pfizer [4] - Innovent Biologics (01801) rose over 5% as Goldman Sachs upgraded its rating, citing undervaluation of its strong revenue and product line [4] Group 5 - Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index rose over 2%, with popular Chinese concept stocks generally increasing, including Kingsoft Cloud (KC.US) up over 9% and Tencent Music (TME.US) up over 3% [5] - Faraday Future (FFAI.US) surged over 20% after announcing significant progress in its B2B sales strategy during a shareholder event [5] - The semiconductor sector rose, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index increasing over 1.9%, and notable gains from AMD (AMD.US) and Micron Technology (MU.US) [5] - Circle (CRCL.US) rose over 7%, holding approximately 27% of the stablecoin market, second only to Tether USDT [5] - Zhihui Group (MOMO.US) increased over 6% despite a 1.5% year-on-year decline in net revenue for Q1 2025, exceeding analyst expectations [5]

Group 1 - The core initiative "Flying Bird Plan" aims to provide care and support for girls in underdeveloped areas, symbolizing their rebirth and empowerment through education [3][5] - The event involved the distribution of care packages worth over 55,000 yuan to 184 eligible girls, including essential items such as hygiene products, backpacks, and thermos cups [3][5] - The necessity for such initiatives is underscored by research indicating that 14.53% of girls in underdeveloped regions have a vague understanding of menstruation, and 39% hold negative attitudes towards it, highlighting the urgent need for education and material support [5] Group 2 - The donations were funded through a charity campaign where 0.5 yuan from each purchase of a specific dish was allocated for the procurement of necessary supplies [5] - In addition to the care packages, the company prepared "love gift bags" for all 611 students at the school, containing practical items to enhance their learning experience [5] - The company, established in 1995, emphasizes its commitment to social responsibility and aims to extend its charitable efforts beyond the dining experience [7]

Macro Strategy - The market is entering a rapid rotation phase, with a shift towards stable sectors as the trading volume and turnover rate decline, indicating a divergence in capital flow [1][10][11] - The current market structure shows a preference for large-cap value stocks over small-cap stocks, suggesting a transition from structural growth to rebalancing [1][10][11] - High dividend stocks with low relative valuations are expected to drive the next upward movement in the market [1][11] Fixed Income - The expected listing price range for Hengshuai Convertible Bonds is between 117.07 and 130.43 CNY, with a subscription rate of 0.0011% [2][15] - The bond has a general debt protection level and an estimated conversion premium of around 25% [2][15] Industry Insights - Junxin Co., Ltd. is a leading waste-to-energy company in Hunan, with a projected net profit growth of 39.8% in 2025, driven by acquisitions and new project contributions [3][4][17] - The company has a strong market position, with a 46.31% market share in Hunan's waste incineration sector and plans for international expansion [3][4][17] - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend payout ratio, with a projected net profit of 7.50 billion CNY in 2025 [3][4][17] Company Performance - Kuaishou's Q1 2025 revenue reached 32.61 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 10.9%, with adjusted net profit of 4.58 billion CNY [5][18] - The company is focusing on AI commercialization, with significant growth in its AI business contributing to overall revenue [5][18] - Xiaomi's Q1 2025 revenue was 111.29 billion CNY, a 47.4% year-on-year increase, with net profit growing by 64.5% [6][18] Consumer Trends - The aging population in China is expected to impact consumption patterns, with a shift towards healthcare and essential services [12][13] - Compared to Japan, China's aging process may lead to less severe impacts on overall consumption due to higher income growth and urbanization potential [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The company's same-store sales are under pressure in 2024 due to external factors such as subdued dining trends and consumer spending, as well as internal adjustments [1][2] Group 1: Same-Store Sales Performance - In 2024, same-store revenue for brands such as Jiumaojiu, Taier, and Songhuoguo is expected to decline by -13%, -19%, and -32% respectively [1] - Jiumaojiu is less affected by the economic downturn due to its lower average transaction value of 55 yuan compared to Taier at 71 yuan and Songhuoguo at 103 yuan [1] Group 2: Operational Adjustments - The company is actively making adjustments to improve operations, including optimizing store models and menu structures [1][2] - Store renovations aim to create a warmer and more stylish environment suitable for family gatherings [1] - The menu is being updated to replace non-core dishes and introduce fresh fish, on-site slaughter, and specialty snacks [1] Group 3: Profitability and Financial Outlook - The company has slowed its expansion strategy in 2024, focusing on store upgrades and closures, which may enhance profitability [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is projected at 56 million yuan, with core operating profit at 252 million yuan [2] - Profit recovery is anticipated in 2025, with net profits expected to reach 135 million yuan, 164 million yuan, and 203 million yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 142.37%, 20.97%, and 24.05% respectively [2] Group 4: Supply Chain Development - The company is implementing supply chain improvements, with a central kitchen in Nansha, Guangzhou expected to be operational in 2025 [2] - Additional supply chain developments are planned for Shanghai and Chongqing in 2026-2027, which will support accelerated expansion outside the province [2] Group 5: Investment Rating - The company is viewed as being at the bottom of its fundamental performance, with positive adjustments and a potential turning point on the horizon [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are 0.10, 0.12, and 0.15 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 23.39x, 19.33x, and 15.59x [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is focusing on optimizing store models and enhancing quality, with a shift from aggressive expansion to store upgrades and closures, which is expected to improve operating profit margins [7] - The company anticipates a recovery in 2025, driven by the closure of unprofitable stores and the introduction of a new store model that is expected to contribute to revenue growth and improved profitability [7] - The supply chain layout is gradually being implemented, with a central kitchen in Guangzhou expected to be operational in 2025, and further expansions planned for other regions in 2026-2027 [7] - The company forecasts significant growth in net profit from 2025 to 2027, with expected net profits of 135.26 million, 163.63 million, and 202.98 million respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 142.37%, 20.97%, and 24.05% [7] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to reach 6,110 million in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 0.60% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.10 in 2025, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23.39 [1] - The company’s operating profit is forecasted to improve significantly, with operating profits of 357.45 million in 2025 and 398.88 million in 2026 [8]