浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 消费行业 浦银国际 公司研究 九毛九 （9922.HK） 九毛九（9922.HK）：短期翻台率难见起 色，门店扩张恐受限，下调至"持有" 公司 1H24 各个主品牌的线下客流都面临较大的压力，翻台率大幅下滑。 客单价下降与翻台率下滑带来显著的经营负杠杆，导致门店经营利润率 恶化。管理层决定采取更审慎的开店策略，并下调 2024 年的开店指引。 我们预计 2H24 翻台率仍将持续承压，且不排除公司进一步下修开店指 引，甚至较大规模关店的可能。基于宏观经济及餐饮行业短期较大的不 确定性，我们抱着谨慎的态度下调九毛九至"持有"评级，并下调目标 价至 2.81 港元。 主要品牌翻台率预计持续承压：我们此前预计公司 1H24 主动下调 太二与怂火锅的客单价有望吸引更多客流，从而抵御餐饮行业需求 下滑的影响。然而，太二及怂火锅 1H24 的翻台率同比皆录得大幅下 降，且 2Q24 低于 1Q24。管理层表示 7-8 月暑期旺季的客流依然较 弱，预计 3Q24 的同店销售下降幅度与 2Q24 相近，但 4Q24 有望在 低基数下边际改善。公司 2H24 将减小折扣力度，更聚焦产品的质 量，希望通 ...

27 Aug 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Jiumaojiu (9922 HK) Transforming despite tough macro backdrop HOLD (Maintain) The 1H24 results were inline but the underlying was slightly positive (e.g. resilient GP margin, as well as the restaurant-level OP margin). We agree that both Tai Er and Song are making loads of efforts to transform, but under such a tough industry and macro environment, we would not be able to turn positive, unless we can really see a compelling impr ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不就因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因依 賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 Jiumaojiu International Holdings Limited 九毛九國際控股有限公司 （於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司） （股份代號：9922） 截至2024年6月30日止六個月的中期業績公告 九毛九國際控股有限公司（「本公司」）董事（「董事」）會（「董事會」）欣然公佈本公 司及其附屬公司（統稱「本集團」）截至2024年6月30日止六個月的未經審核綜合業 績，連同截至2023年6月30日止六個月的比較數字。 主要財務亮點 截至6月30日止六個月 | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------|---------------------------|-------------------------| | | 2024 年 | 2023 年 | | | 人民幣千元 （未經審核） | 人民幣千元 （ ...

2024 年 7 月 30 日 消费服务: 中性 证券研究报告 / 评级更新报告 九毛九国际 (9922 HK, 持有, 目标价: HK$2.70) 主要调整 现值 原值 变动 评级 持有 买入 ↓ 目标价 (HK$) 2.70 6.10 -56% 2024E EPS (RMB) 0.17 0.37 -54% 2025E EPS (RMB) 0.25 0.42 -40% 2026E EPS (RMB) 0.30 0.48 -37% 股价表现 | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|------------| | 股价上行/下行空间 | +2% | | 52 周最高/最低价 (HK$) | 15.78/2.61 | | 市值 (US$mn) | 482 | | 当前发行数量(百万股) | 1,414 | | 三个月平均日交易額 (US$mn) | 8 | | 流通盘占比 (%) | 100 | | 主要股东 (%) | | | GYH J Limited | 38 | | 按 2024 年 7 月 29 日收市数据 | | 资料来源: FactSet Jul ...

Summary of Conference Call Transcript Industry or Company Involved - The discussion pertains to the impact of quantitative easing (QE) on various brands within the industry Core Points and Arguments - There has been a noticeable decline in daily sales statistics across various brands, which can be attributed to the effects of QE [1] - The decline in sales has been felt since the beginning of the year, indicating a longer-term trend rather than a short-term fluctuation [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The mention of QE suggests a broader economic context that may influence consumer behavior and spending patterns, which could have implications for future sales and market strategies [1]

22 Jul 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Jiumaojiu (9922 HK) We see risks in 2H24E after the miss in 2Q24 HOLD (Down) Jiumaojiu issued a profit warning for 1H24, which is still awful compared to our already negative outlook. With risks to linger in the near future (SSSG drop may sustain and store expansion may also slow down, etc.), plus the fairly high valuation (23x FY24E P/E), we now cut our FY24E-26E net profit forecasts by 69%-57% and downgrade the stock to HOLD. ...

Investment Rating - The report downgrades the stock rating to "Hold" from "Buy" due to a challenging outlook for the second half of 2024 and high valuation concerns [2]. Core Views - The company has issued a profit warning for the first half of 2024, with expected net profit of approximately 67 million RMB, a 70% decline year-on-year [2]. - The same-store sales growth (SSSG) for the second quarter of 2024 has worsened, with declines of 18% for Tai Er, 37% for Song, and 13% for JMJ, compared to previous quarter declines [2]. - The report anticipates continued risks in the near future, including potential slowdowns in store expansion and ongoing declines in same-store sales [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for FY24E is projected at 7,128 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 19.1% [3]. - Net profit for FY24E is expected to be 209.9 million RMB, reflecting a significant decline of 56.9% compared to FY23A [3]. - The report revises net profit estimates for FY24E to FY26E down by 69% to 57% [2][4]. Revenue Adjustments - The revenue forecast for FY24E has been adjusted down by 13.5% compared to previous estimates, with a new projection of 7,128 million RMB [4]. - The gross profit margin for FY24E is expected to be 63.3%, slightly lower than previous estimates [4]. Market Valuation - The target price is set at 3.59 HKD, down from a previous target of 8.39 HKD, reflecting a 5.3% potential upside from the current price of 3.41 HKD [2]. - The stock is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 23 times FY24E earnings, which is considered high given the expected sales growth of 6% and a significant decline in net profit [2][6]. Operational Insights - The company plans to implement new business models, including franchising and satellite stores, to improve performance [2]. - Management is focusing on menu improvements, pricing strategies, and employee incentive programs to enhance operational efficiency [2].

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 九毛九 原文 20240702_ 2024年07月03日08:29 发言人 00:02 各位投资人早上好，欢迎大家参加我们安心国际2024年的中期策略会。我们这一场是0.99元 的交流专场。我们非常荣幸的请到了公司的崔总和李总来跟大家交流一下公司的近况。今天也 是分为两个部分。首先先给公司这边介绍一下最近的一个经营状况，然后我们之后会进入问答 环节，我话不多说，就把时间交给公司这边。好，感谢安信的组织，也感谢各位投资者的关注， 我是0.99元的李景玉。 发言人 00:37 先跟大家简单回顾一下1到5月的一个情况，因为六月的数据暂时还没出，我们先以前五个月 的方向性的一个数据做一个交流。Q一的数据我们已经发了一个自愿性的公告。看到各个品牌 的一个同店日销同比2023年都是一个下滑的一个趋势。这个原因也是一个是去年全年来看，1 到8月到暑假结束前都还是一个相对的高基数。尤其是在年初的时候，还是有一波报复性消费 的那所以导致基数过高，各个品牌都出现了或多或少的同店日销的一个下滑。可以看到各个品 牌来看，他二是Q一的同店日销下滑了13.9%，红火锅的日销是下滑 ...

Summary of the Conference Call Company and Industry Involved - The conference call involves Anxin International and its subsidiary, Jiumaojiu [1] Core Points and Arguments - The call is structured into two parts: an introduction to the company's recent operational status followed by a Q&A session [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The presence of key executives, including CEO Ayatrey and another executive named Li, indicates a focus on leadership engagement with investors [1]

本次电话内部学习使用不得外发并且必须经国泰居安证券研究所审核后方可留存国泰居安证券未授权任何媒体转发此次电话会议相关内容未经允许和授权转载转发均属侵权国泰居安证券将保留追究其法律责任的权利国泰居安证券 不承担因转载转发引起的任何损失及责任市场有风险投资需谨慎提请广大投资者谨慎做出投资决策大家好欢迎参加九毛九公司近况交流目前所有的参会者并处于低音状态在演讲结束后将给大家留有提问时间现在有请主持人开始发言谢谢 各位投资者下午好我是国家政府零售组研究员宋彩涵今天我们非常荣幸邀请到了玄玛德莱亚评论所来给我们做一个小范围的交流那就先请会议助理播报一下提问方式吧大家好如需提问请在话机上按新意见等候先按信号键再按数字意见谢谢大家好如需提问请在话机上按新意见等候先按信号键再按数字意见谢谢 好,那我先抛砖引玉问一下,首先想请教一下紫云总就是先分品牌来看一下今年以来的一个经营情况的一个整体表现和趋势的变化包括像翻牌和客单这样去做一个拆封嗯,好的好的,没问题 我先说一下整体的一个情况吧整体来看的话第一大家也看到公告了首先基于去年一个高技术的影响各个品牌的同间日销都是同比下滑的那这个这个高技术的影响呢其实从去年整个上半年加上暑期其实 ...