证券研究报告 | 2025年03月31日 九毛九（09922.HK） 优于大市 2024 年经营承压，期待关店固本后的业绩回升 24H2 归母业绩同比由盈转亏。2024 年，公司收入 60.7 亿元/+1.5%，核心经 营利润 2.5 亿元/-60.1%，归母净利润 5581 万元/-87.7%，成本负杠杆效应 扰动利润表现。2024H2，公司收入 30.1 亿元/-3.1%；归母净利润亏损 1648 万元，同比由盈转亏（2024H2 盈利 2.3 亿元），系关店减值拖累。 核心品牌同店销售承压，出售粤菜/烤鱼品牌明确经营重心。2024 年，核心 品牌太二酸菜鱼收入 44.13 亿元/-1.4%，期内门店新增 95 家（包含 11 家加盟）/关店 39 家，翻座率 2.5 次/-0.5 次，客单价 71 元/-4 元，同 店下滑 18.8%；怂火锅收入 8.95 亿元/+11.0%，期内新开 28 家/关店 10 家。翻座率 2.0/-0.8 次，客单价 103 元/-10 元，同店销售同降 31.6%； 九毛九收入 5.46 亿元/-13.2%，期内新增门店 9 家/关店 15 家。翻座率 1.7 次/-0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The restaurant consumption sector is crucial for boosting overall consumption in China, with recent financial reports from listed companies revealing various strategies to tackle industry challenges amid revenue growth pressures [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Jiumaojiu International Holdings Limited reported a slight revenue increase of 1.5% to 6.074 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2024, but net profit attributable to the parent company plummeted by 87.69% to 55.807 million yuan due to declines in same-store sales metrics such as customer spending and table turnover rates [1] - The company announced a final dividend of 0.02 HKD per share and a special dividend of 0.02 HKD per share, totaling 0.04 HKD per share, while its stock price fell by 5.26% to 2.88 HKD on March 28 [1] Group 2: Expansion and Store Operations - As of December 31, 2024, Jiumaojiu operated 807 restaurants across various countries, with 28 franchise/cooperative stores and 30 overseas locations [2] - The company faced increased operational costs, with the depreciation of right-of-use assets rising by 18.8% to 576 million yuan, while the net new store openings decreased significantly to 81 from 170 in the previous year [2] - The company is undergoing a "survival of the fittest" phase, with 39 closures among its brands, while also dynamically adjusting its brand portfolio [2] Group 3: Revenue Sources and Business Model Changes - The brand "Song Hotpot" emerged as a key revenue driver, with an 11% increase in revenue to 895 million yuan, accounting for 14.7% of total revenue, although this was offset by declines in same-store sales [3] - Jiumaojiu has shifted towards a franchise and cooperative model, opening 11 new franchise stores for the "Tai Er" brand and converting one self-operated store to a franchise, which helps alleviate cash flow pressures [3] - The company reported a 54.3% decrease in cash and cash equivalents to 607 million yuan, primarily due to dividend payments and management insurance purchases [3] Group 4: New Business Initiatives - Jiumaojiu's new business initiatives include a significant increase in revenue from its takeaway business, which surpassed 1 billion yuan, and the introduction of pre-packaged meals in retail channels [4][5] - The company plans to utilize its new supply chain center in Nansha, expected to be operational within the year, to enhance its supply chain efficiency and reduce food safety risks [5][6] - The supply chain center, with a total investment of 500 million yuan, aims to achieve an annual output value exceeding 3 billion yuan by 2027, creating 1,000 new jobs [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][26]. Core Views - The company is expected to face operational pressure in 2024, with a projected revenue of 6.07 billion yuan, a slight increase of 1.5% year-on-year, but a significant decline in core operating profit by 60.1% to 250 million yuan, and a drastic drop in net profit attributable to shareholders by 87.7% to 55.81 million yuan due to cost leverage effects [1][9]. - The company is focusing on its core brands by selling off non-core brands and optimizing its store portfolio, which includes closing underperforming locations [2][24]. - The company has committed to maintaining a dividend payout ratio of no less than 40%, with a total dividend payout rate reaching 92.5% for the year [3][24]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 6.07 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.5%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders fell to 55.81 million yuan, a decrease of 87.7% [1][5]. - For the second half of 2024, the company expects a revenue of 3.01 billion yuan, a decline of 3.1%, and a net loss of 16.48 million yuan, reversing from a profit of 230 million yuan in the same period of the previous year [1][9]. Brand Performance - The core brand, Tai Er, generated a revenue of 4.41 billion yuan, down 1.4% year-on-year, with same-store sales declining by 18.8%. The company opened 95 new stores while closing 39 [2][12]. - The company’s other brands, including Song Hotpot and Jiumaojiu, also faced challenges, with significant declines in same-store sales [2][12]. Cost Structure - The company is experiencing rising costs, with raw material costs accounting for 35.6% of revenue, employee costs at 28.8%, and lease depreciation at 11.7%. This cost rigidity is negatively impacting profit margins [3][21]. - The net profit margin for 2024 is projected to be 0.9%, a decrease of 6.7 percentage points from the previous year, primarily due to rising costs and impairment losses from store closures [3][21]. Future Outlook - The company is actively adapting to market changes by introducing new store formats and menu items to attract customers, while also focusing on a light-asset model for new brand incubation [4][24]. - The profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards to 216 million yuan and 295 million yuan, respectively, reflecting a more cautious outlook on same-store sales and expansion pace [4][24].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that 九毛九 reported a significant decline in net profit despite a modest increase in revenue for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024 [1][2] - 九毛九's revenue for 2024 was approximately 6.074 billion yuan, representing an increase of 11.47% year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 55.807 million yuan, a decrease of 87.69% compared to the previous year [1] Group 2 - Revenue from the 太二 brand slightly decreased by 1.4% from 4.477 billion yuan in 2023 to 4.413 billion yuan in 2024, primarily due to reduced same-store sales amid external environmental changes and intense competition in the restaurant market [1] - The proportion of revenue from 太二 decreased from 74.8% in 2023 to 72.7% in 2024 [1] - In 2024, 九毛九 opened 150 new restaurants, including 95 太二 restaurants, while closing 69 restaurants due to lease terminations and underperformance [1][2] Group 3 - As of December 31, 2024, 九毛九 operated 779 self-operated restaurants and 28 franchise/cooperative restaurants across various countries, including China, Singapore, Canada, Malaysia, Thailand, the United States, and Indonesia [2] - The company continues to follow a multi-brand and multi-concept strategy, aiming to expand market share and optimize its restaurant brand portfolio [2] - In 2024, 九毛九 launched a new brand, 山的山外酸汤火锅, and introduced franchise models for its 太二 and 九毛九 brands in selected shopping centers and transportation hubs [2]

本报讯(记者李春莲见习记者梁傲男)3月28日晚间，九毛九国际控股有限公司(以下简称"九毛九")发布 2024年度财报。数据显示，九毛九2024年收入约60.74亿元，同比增长1.5%；归属母公司净利润5580.70 万元，同比下降87.69%；年度溢利由截至2023年的4.8亿元减少90.7%至截至2024年的4480万元。 截至2024年12月31日，九毛九在中国141个城市、加拿大两个城市、马来西亚一个城市泰国一个城市、 美国两个城市、印度尼西亚一个城市以及新加坡拥有779家自营餐厅及28间加盟或合作模式餐厅。 九毛九方面表示，2024年，集团继续遵循多品牌及多概念策略，探索新业务机会，旨在进一步扩大市场 份额。2024年，集团积极调整业务策略，并进一步扩张餐厅网络；继续优化其餐厅品牌组合，并专注于 具有较大增长潜力的品牌，相对审慎地扩张太二品牌及怂火锅品牌的餐厅网络。 同日，九毛九发布公告称，公司将于2025年7月4日一般分红每股0.02港元。 门店规模方面，九毛九于2024年新开150家餐厅，包括95家太二餐厅(包括11家加盟餐厅)、28家怂火锅 餐厅、20家山外面餐厅(包括16家合作模式餐厅)、7家 ...

北京商报讯（记者 张天元）3月28日，九毛九发布截至2024年12月31日止年度的年度业绩。数据显示， 九毛九2024年收入约60.74亿元(人民币，下同)，同比增加1.5%；归属母公司净利润5580.70万元,同比下 降87.69%；年度溢利由截至2023年的4.8亿元减少90.7%至截至2024年的4480万元。 门店规模方面，九毛九集团于2024年新开150家餐厅，包括95家太二餐厅（包括11家加盟餐厅）、28家 怂火锅餐厅、20家山外面餐厅（包括16家合作模式餐厅）、7家九毛九餐厅（包括1家加盟餐厅），并有 一家太二直营餐厅转为加盟餐厅。于集团的餐厅中，2024年关闭了69家餐厅，此乃主要由于相关租赁协 议于届满后终止、部分餐厅的表现未如理想及向独立第三方出售那未大叔是大厨和赖美丽餐厅。截至 2024年12月31日，集团在中国141个城市、新加坡、加拿大两个城市、马来西亚一个城市、泰国一个城 市、美国两个城市及印度尼西亚一个城市拥有779家自营餐厅及28间加盟/合作模式餐厅。 九毛九表示，2024年，集团继续遵循多品牌及多概念策略，并探索新业务机会，旨在进一步扩大市场份 额。2024年，集团积极调整其 ...

Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of RMB 6,073.6 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, representing a 1.5% increase from RMB 5,985.9 million in the previous year[6]. - The annual profit decreased by 90.7% to RMB 44.8 million from RMB 480.0 million in the previous year[6]. - The core operating profit for the year was RMB 252.3 million, down from RMB 632.1 million in the previous year[3]. - The total comprehensive income for the year was RMB 104,787,000, down from RMB 504,335,000 in 2023, reflecting a decrease of about 79.2%[78]. - The company reported a net profit of RMB 44,800,000 for 2024, a significant decrease from RMB 479,998,000 in 2023, reflecting a decline of about 90.6%[78]. - The basic and diluted earnings per share for 2024 were both RMB 0.04, down from RMB 0.31 in 2023[77]. - The non-GAAP operating profit for the total segments in 2024 was RMB 773,455 thousand, down from RMB 1,076,967 thousand in 2023, indicating a decrease of about 28.2%[92]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from the brand "Tai Er" decreased by 1.4% to RMB 4,412.8 million, accounting for 72.7% of total revenue, down from 74.8% in 2023[17]. - Revenue from "Song Hot Pot" increased by 11.0% to RMB 895.0 million, with the number of restaurants expanding from 62 to 80[18]. - Revenue from Jiu Mao Jiu decreased by 13.2% from RMB 629.6 million in 2023 to RMB 546.2 million in 2024, primarily due to a reduction in the number of self-operated restaurants from 77 to 70[19]. - Restaurant operating revenue decreased by 3.7% from RMB 5,066.5 million in 2023 to RMB 4,880.4 million in 2024, with same-store sales declining due to external environment changes and market competition[20]. - Takeaway business revenue increased by 15.8% from RMB 901.2 million in 2023 to RMB 1,043.4 million in 2024, attributed to the expansion of the restaurant network and the introduction of satellite takeaway stores[22]. Operational Changes - The company opened 150 new restaurants in 2024, including 95 Taier restaurants and 28 Song Hotpot restaurants[7]. - The total number of restaurants increased to 807 in 2024 from 726 in 2023[8]. - The company closed 69 restaurants in 2024 due to lease expirations and underperformance[7]. - The company plans to optimize restaurant layouts and focus on quality rather than expansion, with no specific store opening targets for 2025[15]. - The supply chain center in Nansha, Guangzhou, is expected to be operational by 2025, aimed at stabilizing supply and reducing food safety risks[15]. Customer Metrics - Same-store sales for Taier decreased by 18.8%, Song Hotpot by 31.6%, and Jiumaojiu by 13.0%[4]. - The average customer spending per visit decreased for Taier to RMB 71 from RMB 75, for Song Hotpot to RMB 103 from RMB 113, and for Jiumaojiu to RMB 55 from RMB 58[4]. - The overall table turnover rate for "Tai Er" dropped to 3.5 from 4.1 in 2023[12]. - The number of same-store locations for "Tai Er" increased to 448 in 2024 from 313 in 2023[14]. Cost and Expenses - Employee costs rose by 13.1% from RMB 1,544.1 million in 2023 to RMB 1,747.0 million in 2024, primarily due to a comprehensive salary increase implemented in the second half of 2023[25]. - Depreciation of right-of-use assets increased by 18.8% from RMB 485.3 million in 2023 to RMB 576.5 million in 2024, mainly due to an increase in the number of restaurants[26]. - Financing costs increased by 19.5% from RMB 92.9 million in 2023 to RMB 111.0 million in 2024, primarily due to increased lease liabilities from network expansion[35]. - Other income decreased by 45.1% from RMB 126.7 million in 2023 to RMB 69.6 million in 2024, mainly due to the expiration of VAT rebates and reduced government subsidies[23]. - Total other expenses rose to RMB 470,751,000 in 2024, compared to RMB 438,588,000 in 2023, reflecting a 7.3% increase[99]. Dividends and Shareholder Returns - The company proposed a final dividend of HKD 0.02 per share, totaling approximately HKD 28.0 million, and a special dividend of the same amount to celebrate its 30th anniversary[6]. - The proposed final dividend is HKD 0.02 per share and a special dividend of HKD 0.02 per share for the year ended December 31, 2024[62]. - The company reported a total of RMB 14,038,000 thousand in expected revenue from existing contracts as of December 31, 2024, related to customer loyalty programs[85]. Financial Position - Total assets decreased from RMB 6,520.9 million as of December 31, 2023, to RMB 6,488.6 million as of December 31, 2024[50]. - Total liabilities increased from RMB 3,163.9 million as of December 31, 2023, to RMB 3,337.5 million as of December 31, 2024[50]. - The debt-to-asset ratio rose from 48.5% as of December 31, 2023, to 51.4% as of December 31, 2024[50]. - Cash and cash equivalents decreased by 54.3% from RMB 1,326.9 million as of December 31, 2023, to RMB 607.0 million as of December 31, 2024[51]. - The total equity decreased to RMB 3,151,152 thousand in 2024 from RMB 3,357,016 thousand in 2023, a decline of approximately 6.1%[80]. Governance and Management - The company appointed a new CEO effective March 1, 2024, while the previous CEO remains as chairman and executive director[144]. - The audit committee, composed of three independent non-executive directors, has reviewed the audited consolidated financial statements for the year ending December 31, 2024[146]. - The audit committee confirmed that the financial statements fairly reflect the company's financial position and performance according to applicable accounting standards[147]. - The company emphasizes maintaining high standards of ethics, transparency, and accountability in its operations[142].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral, with a target price adjusted to HKD 2.56, reflecting a potential downside of 2.3% from the current price of HKD 2.62 [1][2][7]. Core Insights - The company's performance continues to be under pressure, with same-store sales declining significantly across its brands in the fourth quarter. The Taier brand saw a 24.6% year-on-year decline, while the Jiumaojiu brand experienced an 18.5% drop. The company is actively adjusting its strategies, which are expected to be implemented by the end of March [7]. - The company is closing underperforming stores, with a net reduction of 20 Taier stores in the fourth quarter, primarily in mainland China. As of the end of 2024, the company will have 593 Taier direct-operated stores in mainland China [7]. - The company is shifting from a clear expansion strategy to a more cautious dynamic adjustment strategy, reflecting a cautious outlook on the industry environment. Despite this, the overseas business is developing steadily, contributing to long-term competitive advantages [7]. Financial Overview - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 4,006 million in 2022 to RMB 6,958 million in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11.3% from 2024 to 2026 [6][12]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 49 million in 2022 to RMB 659 million in 2026, with significant fluctuations in growth rates, including a projected 114.5% increase in 2025 [6][12]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from RMB 0.03 in 2022 to RMB 0.45 in 2026, indicating a recovery trend after a significant drop in 2024 [6][12]. Market Performance - The stock has seen a significant decline of 23.62% year-to-date, with a 52-week high of HKD 6.13 and a low of HKD 2.19 [4][6]. - The average daily trading volume is approximately 10.26 million shares, indicating active trading interest [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral, with a target price adjusted to HKD 2.56, indicating a potential downside of 2.3% from the current price of HKD 2.62 [2][10][11]. Core Insights - The company has been facing continuous pressure on its performance, with same-store sales declining significantly across its brands in the fourth quarter. The Taier brand saw a 24.6% year-on-year decline, while the Jiumaojiu brand experienced an 18.5% drop. The company is actively adjusting its strategies, which are expected to be implemented by the end of March [7][8]. - The company plans to close underperforming stores and has already reduced the number of Taier stores by 20 in the fourth quarter. The focus will be on stabilizing the average transaction value and enhancing product innovation to maintain market leadership [7][8]. - Financial forecasts have been adjusted downwards to reflect a cautious outlook, with expected revenues of RMB 6,958 million in 2025, representing a 7.0% growth from 2024 [6][12]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 4,006 million in 2022, RMB 5,986 million in 2023, RMB 6,499 million in 2024E, RMB 6,958 million in 2025E, and RMB 7,744 million in 2026E, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of -4.2%, 49.4%, 8.6%, 7.0%, and 11.3% respectively [6][12]. - Net profit is expected to fluctuate, with estimates of RMB 49 million in 2022, RMB 453 million in 2023, RMB 201 million in 2024E, RMB 430 million in 2025E, and RMB 659 million in 2026E, showing a significant increase in 2023 followed by a decline in 2024 [6][12]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be RMB 0.03 in 2022, RMB 0.31 in 2023, RMB 0.14 in 2024E, RMB 0.30 in 2025E, and RMB 0.45 in 2026E, indicating a volatile earnings trajectory [6][12]. Market Performance - The stock has seen a significant decline of 23.62% year-to-date, with a 52-week high of HKD 6.13 and a low of HKD 2.19. The current market capitalization stands at approximately HKD 3,616.54 million [4][6].

Key Points Industry/Company - The content of the document is related to the financial performance of a company named "Jiunaojiu" during the second, third, and fourth quarters of the year [1]. Core Views and Arguments - The document mentions that all financial statements are currently in a "silent state," indicating that there may be some issues or uncertainties surrounding the company's financials [1]. Other Important Content - The document indicates that after the statement report is completed, a person named "An哥" will directly start speaking, suggesting that there may be additional insights or discussions following the financial report [1].