Summary of Jiumaojiu (9922.HK) 3Q25 Operating Update Company Overview - **Company**: Jiumaojiu (9922.HK) - **Brands**: Tai Er, Jiumaojiu, Song Hot Pot Factory Key Industry Insights - **Same Store Sales Growth (SSSG)**: - Tai Er: -9.3% in 3Q25, improved from -13.7% in 2Q25, with a recovery ratio of 62% vs. pre-Covid levels [1][13] - Jiumaojiu: -14.8% in 3Q25, improved from -18.5% in 2Q25, with a recovery ratio of 63% vs. pre-Covid levels [1][13] - Song: -19.1% in 3Q25, worsening from -14.3% in 2Q25, primarily affected by weather and high base effects [1][13] Financial Performance - **Store Count**: - Tai Er: Closed 36 stores, total of 530 stores [3][13] - Jiumaojiu: Closed 4 company stores, total of 64 stores [3][13] - Song: Closed 5 stores, total of 71 stores [3][13] - **Average Selling Price (ASP)**: - Tai Er: Rmb74, stable from Rmb74 in 2Q25 [1][13] - Jiumaojiu: Rmb58, improved from Rmb57 in 2Q25 [1][13] - Song: Rmb100, slightly increased from Rmb98 in 2Q25 [1][13] - **Average Table Turn**: - Tai Er: 3.3x in 2Q25 [1][13] - Jiumaojiu: 2.5x in 3Q25, improved from 2.3x in 2Q25 [1][13] - Song: 2.4x in 3Q25, stable from 2.4x in 2Q25 [1][13] Management Strategies - **Store Format Conversion**: - Management raised the store conversion target for Tai Er to over 200 by year-end, up from 150 [1][9] - New store formats are outperforming old formats, expected to enhance sales performance and brand perception [1][2] - **Future Expectations**: - Anticipated margin improvement in 2026E due to new store formats and optimized store networks [2][20] - Management targets positive SSSG in 4Q25, with a lower base expected [2][13] Risks and Considerations - **Key Risks**: - Weaker-than-expected demand and SSSG recovery [20] - Challenges in rolling out new store formats sustainably [20] - Competition and pricing pressures [20] - Margin risks and potential removal from Stock Connect [20] Valuation and Recommendations - **Price Target**: Updated 12-month target price of HK$3.5, based on 8x 2025E-26E EV/EBITDA [2][18] - **Investment Rating**: Remain Buy, with a significant upside potential of 71.6% from the current price of HK$2.04 [21][18] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the Jiumaojiu 3Q25 operating update, highlighting the company's performance, strategic initiatives, and market outlook.

Core Insights - The report analyzes the changes in local government financing platforms in the context of a nearly one-year anniversary of the debt replacement policy, highlighting the increase in local government debt limits and the implications for financing resources [3]. Group 1: Local Government Financing - In November 2024, the National People's Congress approved a resolution to increase the local government debt limit by 6 trillion yuan to replace hidden debts, adding to the 8 trillion yuan allocated annually from new local government bonds for five years, resulting in a total increase of 10 trillion yuan in debt resources for local governments [3]. Group 2: Industry Performance - The report provides a performance overview of various industries, with non-ferrous metals leading with a 66.3% increase over the past year, followed by power equipment at 50.1% and steel at 25.0% [1]. - Conversely, the media and social services sectors showed declines of -7.8% and -6.9% respectively over the same period [1]. Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Ankerui (300286.SZ) is positioned as a leader in microgrid energy management, with projected net profits of 250 million yuan, 320 million yuan, and 420 million yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting growth rates of 45%, 31%, and 30% respectively [5]. - Jiamaojiu (09922.HK) is expected to optimize its store count and improve performance through a new store model, with projected revenues of 5.668 billion yuan, 6.063 billion yuan, and 6.331 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [6]. - Xiaogoods City (600415.SH) reported a 100.52% increase in net profit for Q3 2025, with expectations of continued growth in net profits of 4.240 billion yuan, 5.761 billion yuan, and 6.914 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral [2][18]. Core Insights - The company has adjusted its earnings forecast downward due to a slow recovery in same-store sales, maintaining a neutral rating with a target price reduced to HKD 2.32, reflecting a potential upside of 13.7% [6][18]. - Same-store sales for the third quarter showed declines, but there are initial signs of recovery, particularly in the "Tai Er" brand, which has seen improvements in major cities [6][19]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its store network and upgrading its "Tai Er" model, which is expected to drive sales recovery in the latter half of the year [6][19]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025 have been slightly reduced to RMB 5,553 million, with net profit estimates adjusted to RMB 143 million [5][19]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is forecasted at RMB 0.10, reflecting a significant decrease from previous estimates [5][19]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is projected at 18.8 times, down from earlier estimates [5][19]. Store Performance - As of the end of September, the total number of stores was 686, with a net decrease of 43 stores primarily due to the closure of underperforming locations [6][19]. - The "Tai Er" brand has implemented a new operational model, with 106 upgraded restaurants as of September, aiming to expand to over 200 by the end of 2025 [6][19]. Sales Metrics - The average daily sales for the third quarter showed declines of 9.3% for "Tai Er," 19.1% for "Song Hot Pot," and 14.8% for "Jiu Mao Jiu," although the rate of decline has narrowed compared to the previous quarter [6][19]. - The table turnover rates for "Tai Er," "Song," and "Jiu Mao Jiu" were 3.3, 2.4, and 2.5 respectively, indicating slight improvements in operational efficiency [6][19].

格隆汇10月16日丨九毛九(09922.HK)公告，10月16日耗资100万港元回购47.8万股。 ...

智通财经APP讯，九毛九(09922)发布公告，于2025年10月16日斥资100.28万港元回购47.8万股。 ...

FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) 表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 公司名稱： 九毛九国际控股有限公司 (於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司) 呈交日期： 2025年10月16日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | 於香港聯交所上市 | 是 | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 09922 | 說明 | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | | | 事件 | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）變動 佔有關事件前的現有已發 | 庫存股份變動 | 每股發行/出售價 (註4) | 已發行股 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an expected revenue growth of 56.68 billion, 60.63 billion, and 63.31 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, and net profits of 1.32 billion, 2.23 billion, and 2.50 billion for the same years [3][4][5]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing a gradual improvement in brand upgrades, with an increase in the number of new Taier store formats expected to exceed 200 by the end of the year [1][3]. - The total number of stores as of Q3 2025 is 686, with a year-on-year decrease of 138 stores, but the main brands are showing signs of optimization [2][3]. - The average transaction value for major brands remains stable, indicating a strategic shift from short-term promotions to enhancing product quality and customer experience [2][3]. - The new Taier "5.0 Fresh Model" stores have shown strong performance, contributing to a continuous improvement in same-store sales [3]. Summary by Sections Store Performance - As of Q3 2025, the total number of stores is 686, with a year-on-year decrease of 138 stores. The breakdown by brand shows a decline in the number of stores for Jiamaojiu and Taier, while other brands have seen minor changes [2][3]. Average Transaction Value - The average transaction values for Jiamaojiu, Taier, and Song Hotpot are 58, 74, and 100 yuan respectively, with year-on-year increases of 4, 5, and 3 yuan [2]. Same-Store Sales - Same-store sales for Jiamaojiu, Taier, and Song Hotpot have decreased by 14.8%, 9.3%, and 19.1% respectively, but the decline is narrowing, indicating operational adjustments and brand upgrades are taking effect [2][3]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 56.68 billion, 60.63 billion, and 63.31 billion yuan, with net profits expected to be 1.32 billion, 2.23 billion, and 2.50 billion yuan respectively [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - Jiumaojiu (09922) reported a nearly 3% increase in stock price, reflecting market response to its operational adjustments and brand upgrades, despite a decline in same-store sales for its key brands [1] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the table turnover rates for Taier (self-operated only), Song Hotpot, and Jiumaojiu (self-operated only) were 3.3, 2.4, and 2.5 respectively [1] - Same-store average daily sales for Taier, Song Hotpot, and Jiumaojiu decreased year-on-year by 9.3%, 19.1%, and 14.8% respectively [1] - The decline in same-store sales for Taier and Jiumaojiu has been narrowing over the quarters, indicating positive effects from operational adjustments and brand upgrades [1] Operational Developments - Taier's same-store average daily sales have shown continuous improvement for three consecutive quarters, with positive year-on-year growth in cities like Beijing and Shanghai during Q3 [1] - As of the announcement date, the number of Taier restaurants operating under the "5.0 Fresh Model" in mainland China reached 106 [1] - The new model restaurants have received positive feedback, prompting the company to accelerate their rollout, with expectations to increase the number to over 200 by the end of 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Jiumaojiu (09922) shares increased by nearly 3%, closing at HKD 2.1 with a trading volume of HKD 17.03 million, following the announcement of its Q3 2025 performance metrics [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the table turnover rates for Taier (self-operated only), Song Hotpot, and Jiumaojiu (self-operated only) were 3.3, 2.4, and 2.5 respectively [1] - Same-store average daily sales for Taier, Song Hotpot, and Jiumaojiu decreased year-on-year by 9.3%, 19.1%, and 14.8% respectively [1] - The decline in same-store average daily sales for Taier and Jiumaojiu has been narrowing, indicating the effectiveness of the company's operational adjustments and brand upgrade initiatives [1] Group 2: Operational Developments - Taier's same-store average daily sales have shown improvement for three consecutive quarters, with positive year-on-year growth in cities like Beijing and Shanghai during Q3 [1] - As of the announcement date, the number of Taier's "5.0 Fresh Model" restaurants in mainland China reached 106 [1] - The new model restaurants have received positive feedback, prompting the company to accelerate their rollout in Q4, with expectations to increase the number of new model restaurants to over 200 by the end of 2025 [1]

Core Insights - The number of Tai Er restaurants decreased by 65 locations within a year, indicating a significant contraction in the business [1] - The turnover rate dropped from 4.4 times per day in 2021 to 3.1 times per day in the first half of 2025, reflecting a nearly 30% decline in customer frequency [1] Company Performance - The reduction in the number of stores suggests challenges in maintaining market presence and customer engagement [1] - The decline in turnover rate indicates a decrease in customer visits, raising concerns about the brand's appeal and operational efficiency [1] Industry Context - The article raises questions about whether the rise of pre-prepared meals has negatively impacted Tai Er's business model and customer base [1] - It explores the reasons behind the decreasing customer numbers and what measures the company is taking to recover from this downturn [1]