Core Viewpoint - The report from Huaxing Securities maintains a "Hold" rating and profit forecast for Jiumaojiu (09922), lowering the target price by 29% to HKD 1.77, corresponding to a 12x P/E for 2026, indicating that the company's overall profit may be slightly below current expectations due to store adjustments affecting same-store sales [1] Group 1: Operational Performance - In Q3 2025, Jiumaojiu's operations remained stable, with a total of 530 Taier restaurants, 509 of which are self-operated, along with 71 Song Hotpot and 64 Jiumaojiu restaurants [1] - The table turnover rates for Taier self-operated restaurants were 3.2 times per day in mainland China and 3.9 times in other regions, while Song Hotpot and Jiumaojiu had turnover rates of 2.4 and 2.5 times per day, respectively [1] - The average customer spending was reported as 66 CNY in mainland China and 155 CNY in other regions for Taier, 100 CNY for Song Hotpot, and 58 CNY for Jiumaojiu self-operated restaurants [1] - Same-store daily sales for Taier self-operated restaurants decreased by 9.3%, Song Hotpot by 19.1%, and Jiumaojiu by 14.8% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Future Expectations - It is expected that all brand stores will undergo smooth adjustments in Q4, with Taier's same-store revenue decline narrowing further in Q3 2025, approaching flat growth by early September [2] - The impact of the Xibei prepared dishes incident on customer traffic in shopping center dining areas is expected to diminish after the National Day holiday, potentially allowing Taier's same-store revenue to turn positive by year-end [2] - Taier is actively adjusting its store model by introducing live fish for fresh preparation, which is not expected to significantly affect service standards, although raw material costs may slightly increase [2] - The company plans to adjust over 200 Taier stores this year and continue with the remaining 300 next year [2] Group 3: Industry Trends - Jiumaojiu and Song Hotpot are experiencing similar trends in same-store revenue performance, with the company aiming to improve results through new model stores [3] - The restaurant industry is undergoing a transformation phase, with consumers demanding higher standards across various aspects such as environment, space, product quality, pricing, service, and promotions [3] - The company is proactively adjusting to meet these demands, which may impact short-term financials but is expected to lay a foundation for sustainable future growth [3]

Core Viewpoint - Huaxing Securities maintains a "Hold" rating and profit forecast for Jiumaojiu (09922), lowering the target price by 29% to HKD 1.77, corresponding to a 12x P/E for 2026, due to a stable third-quarter operation and adjustments in major brands, with same-store sales declining year-on-year [1] Group 1: Third Quarter Performance - The company reported stable operations in Q3 2025, with a total of 530 Taier restaurants, 509 of which are self-operated; 71 for Song Hotpot; and 64 for Jiumaojiu, with 63 self-operated [1] - Taier's self-operated restaurants in mainland China have a table turnover rate of 3.2 times per day, while other regions have 3.9 times; Song Hotpot has 2.4 times, and Jiumaojiu self-operated restaurants have 2.5 times [1] - The average customer spending for Taier's self-operated restaurants is RMB 66 in mainland China and RMB 155 in other regions; Song Hotpot is RMB 100, and Jiumaojiu is RMB 58 [1] - Same-store daily sales for Taier's self-operated restaurants decreased by 9.3% year-on-year; Song Hotpot by 19.1%; and Jiumaojiu by 14.8% [1] Group 2: Future Expectations - For Q4, all brand stores are expected to adjust smoothly, with Taier's same-store revenue decline narrowing further in Q3 2025, approaching flat growth by early September [2] - The impact of the Xibei prepared food incident on customer traffic in shopping center dining areas lasted nearly a month, but the effect has weakened post-National Day, with expectations for Taier's same-store revenue growth to turn positive by year-end [2] - Taier is actively adjusting its store model by adding live fish preparation, which has not significantly affected service standardization; however, raw material costs may slightly increase due to higher waste rates [2] - The company plans to adjust over 200 Taier stores this year and continue with the remaining 300 next year [2] Group 3: Industry Trends - Jiumaojiu and Song Hotpot show similar trends in same-store revenue performance, with the company aiming to improve results through new model stores [3] - The restaurant industry is undergoing a transformation phase with upgraded consumer demands, requiring brands to enhance their offerings in terms of environment, space, products, pricing, service, and promotions [3] - The company is proactively adjusting to meet these demands, which may impact short-term financials but lays a foundation for sustainable future growth [3]

Investment Rating - The report provides various investment ratings for companies in the consumer staples sector, with "Outperform" ratings for several companies including China Feihe, Haidilao, and China Resources Beer, while Budweiser APAC is rated as "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant price increases in vegetables and corrugated paper, with the spot cost index for vegetables rising by 7.08% month-on-month and 16.16% year-on-year, while corrugated paper prices increased by 8.81% month-on-month and 17.49% year-on-year [6][24][27]. - Most spot cost indices for monitored consumer goods have risen, while futures cost indices have generally declined, indicating a mixed outlook for the sector [31]. Summary by Category Beer - The spot cost index for beer decreased by 2.25% month-on-month, with a cumulative decline of 3.04% since the beginning of the year [12][32]. - The futures index also fell by 2.62% month-on-month, reflecting ongoing supply-demand imbalances [12][32]. Condiments - The spot cost index for condiments decreased by 0.95% month-on-month, with a cumulative decline of 3.50% since the start of the year [15][33]. - Soybean prices have shown an increase, with spot prices rising by 1.38% month-on-month [15][33]. Dairy Products - The spot cost index for dairy products increased by 0.74% month-on-month, while the futures index decreased by 1.07% [18][34]. - Fresh milk prices have declined to 3.03 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2% [18][34]. Instant Noodles - The spot cost index for instant noodles increased by 0.64% month-on-month, while the futures index decreased by 1.47% [21][35]. - Palm oil prices have decreased significantly, impacting production costs [21][35]. Frozen Foods - The spot cost index for frozen foods increased by 0.37% month-on-month, while the futures index rose by 0.52% [24][36]. - Vegetable prices have surged due to adverse weather conditions, contributing to rising costs [24][36]. Soft Drinks - The spot cost index for soft drinks increased by 2.50% month-on-month, while the futures index decreased by 1.70% [27][37]. - The price of PET chips has declined, affecting overall production costs [27][37].

Core Viewpoint - The incident involving Yang Guofu's pricing of mung bean sprouts highlights the lack of pricing transparency in the restaurant industry, raising concerns about consumer rights and potential price fraud [2][5]. Group 1: Incident Overview - A recent controversy arose when consumers discovered that Yang Guofu's mung bean sprouts were priced at 28.8 yuan per kilogram, significantly higher than the price of 8.25 yuan per kilogram at Sam's Club [2]. - This incident has brought attention to the "weight assassin" phenomenon in the restaurant industry, where pricing strategies can mislead consumers [2]. Group 2: Company Response - Yang Guofu's customer service stated that the pricing varies across locations due to cost considerations such as rent and labor, indicating a lack of unified pricing strategy [4]. - However, this explanation did not alleviate public skepticism regarding the pricing practices [4]. Group 3: Industry Commentary - The incident underscores the shortcomings in pricing transparency within the restaurant sector, as the company's justification for cost differences may be perceived as a form of price manipulation [5]. - The Jiangsu Consumer Protection Committee noted that consumers often overlook differences in measurement units, leading to misunderstandings and potential violations of fair trading rights [5]. - If the industry continues to employ such "weight assassin" pricing models, it risks damaging brand image and consumer loyalty [5].

Summary of Jiamaojiu Group Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Jiamaojiu Group - **Date**: November 10, 2025 Key Points Industry and Company Performance - In September 2025, Jiamaojiu Group experienced a decline in foot traffic due to public sentiment surrounding prepared dishes, leading to fluctuations in same-store sales. However, a rapid recovery began in late October, with expectations of positive growth by year-end [2][3] - The Taier brand has been actively promoting a fresh model, surpassing 120 stores, with same-store data outperforming the old model by approximately 15 percentage points. By the end of 2025, over 200 stores are expected, with a complete upgrade planned by mid-2026 [2][5] Store Management and Strategy - The company is closing underperforming stores, with Taier closing about 110 stores in the first half of 2025 and an estimated total of 130 closures for the year. This strategy aims to alleviate financial burdens [2][12] - Jiamaojiu and Song Hotpot are also exploring new models, with plans to open their first fresh model stores in Guangzhou [2][6] Sales and Customer Trends - Same-store sales for Jiamaojiu Group's brands showed signs of stabilization in Q3 2025, particularly for the Taier brand, which saw a narrowing decline to -9%. Key cities like Beijing and Shanghai reported positive same-store sales [3][7] - The average customer spending has remained stable with an upward trend since Q3 2024 [3] Delivery and Dining Experience - The proportion of delivery sales increased to 23%-25% in Q2 2025 but is expected to stabilize around 20% as the company focuses on enhancing dine-in experiences [2][9] - The company maintains a neutral stance on delivery services, recognizing both efficiency benefits and potential customer experience risks [9] Financial Outlook and Cost Management - The company anticipates achieving same-store sales growth by October 2025, supported by increased store openings and closures of underperforming locations. The low base in Q4 2025 also enhances the likelihood of positive year-over-year comparisons [7] - The fresh model has increased SKU counts and average transaction values, with initial gross margins slightly lower but expected to recover as operational efficiencies improve [4][15] Competitive Landscape - Taier's fresh model has shown significant performance differences across cities, with same-store sales in some areas outperforming the old model by 20-40 percentage points [15][17] - The company is adapting its offerings to attract family and business customers, responding to shifts in consumer demographics and preferences [19][21] Future Plans - The focus for 2026 will be on upgrading existing stores rather than new openings, as the fresh model's data is still being validated [13][22] - The company aims to optimize its operational layout and close unprofitable locations to prepare for future growth [14][12] Additional Insights - The company has faced challenges with its delivery-only stores, which have not performed as expected, leading to a shift back to focusing on dine-in operations [11][12] - Taier has been proactive in addressing public concerns regarding prepared dishes by showcasing its cooking processes and enhancing menu offerings [20][21] This summary encapsulates the key insights and strategic directions of Jiamaojiu Group as discussed in the conference call, highlighting both challenges and opportunities within the current market landscape.

Core Insights - Jiumaojiu Group (09922.HK) reported a decline in same-store daily sales for its brands, with Taier, Song Hotpot, and Jiumaojiu experiencing year-on-year decreases of 9.3%, 19.1%, and 14.8% respectively in Q3 2025, although the declines narrowed compared to Q2, indicating effective operational adjustments and brand upgrades [1][4] - The Chinese dining market is undergoing a significant transformation in consumer perception of "value," particularly among younger consumers who now equate it with a combination of "cost-performance" and "experience," prompting brands to enhance dining environments, service quality, and social attributes to meet new market demands [1] Company Strategy - Jiumaojiu Group's strategic adjustments are representative of industry trends, with its core brand Taier launching the "5.0 Fresh Model" restaurant upgrade and layout optimization, focusing on fresh ingredients like live fish, fresh chicken, and fresh beef, which aligns with consumer demands for quality and freshness [3][4] - As of the announcement date, Taier has established 106 new model restaurants, with same-store daily sales showing continuous improvement for three consecutive quarters, particularly achieving positive year-on-year growth in first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai in Q3 [4] - The group plans to accelerate the rollout of the "5.0 Fresh Model" restaurants, aiming to expand to over 200 locations by the end of 2025 due to positive market feedback [4] Brand Development - Song Hotpot is focusing on dual upgrades in product offerings and atmosphere, enhancing its fresh product categories and positioning a joyful atmosphere as a core brand asset, transforming dining into a fun and quality social space to attract younger customers [4] - Jiumaojiu's Northwest Cuisine brand is targeting the children's dining sector by developing children's meals, opening experience stores, and incorporating interactive activities to increase family customer loyalty and market competitiveness [4] - The average customer spending level across the main brands has remained relatively stable over several quarters, indicating a shift from reliance on short-term promotions to strengthening product quality and enhancing customer experience, marking a critical step in adapting to the new market normal [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in the stock prices of various restaurant companies, driven by positive consumer price index (CPI) data and recovery in same-store sales following a challenging September [1] - As of the report, Jiamao Jiu (09922) rose by 6.67% to HKD 1.92, Dashih (01405) increased by 4.95% to HKD 80.5, Haidilao (06862) gained 4.82% to HKD 13.69, and Yum China (09987) was up 3.02% to HKD 348 [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that in October, the CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, with the core CPI (excluding food and energy) increasing by 1.2%, marking the sixth consecutive month of growth [1] Group 2 - Guojin Securities noted that the restaurant industry faced pressure in September due to public sentiment but has shown signs of recovery since the National Day holiday, indicating a potential rebound in consumer spending [1] - The current restaurant sector is focused on expanding store numbers and improving efficiency, with expectations of strong upward elasticity in consumer recovery [1] - CITIC Securities emphasized that as takeaway subsidies decline, the importance of core competitive advantages, overseas model validation, franchisee empowerment, and industry chain expansion will become more pronounced [1]

Group 1 - Restaurant stocks saw significant gains, with Jiumaojiu (09922) up 6.67% to HKD 1.92, Dashih (01405) up 4.95% to HKD 80.5, Haidilao (06862) up 4.82% to HKD 13.69, and Yum China (09987) up 3.02% to HKD 348 [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that in October, policies aimed at expanding domestic demand continued to show effects, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 1.2%, marking the sixth consecutive month of growth [1] - Guotai Junan Securities noted that the restaurant industry faced pressure in September due to public sentiment, but there has been a recovery in same-store sales since the beginning of October, indicating that the value-for-money dining sector is still in a phase of expansion and efficiency improvement [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities highlighted that with the tapering of delivery subsidies, the importance of core competitive barriers, overseas model validation, franchisee empowerment, and industry chain expansion will become more pronounced [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong restaurant stocks experienced significant gains towards the end of trading on November 10, with notable increases in share prices for several companies in the sector [1]. Company Performance - Jiumaojiu (09922.HK) saw a rise of 6.67%, reaching HKD 1.92 [1]. - Dashi Holdings (01405.HK) increased by 4.95%, with shares priced at HKD 80.5 [1]. - Haidilao (06862.HK) rose by 4.82%, trading at HKD 13.69 [1]. - Yum China (09987.HK) experienced a 3.02% increase, with shares at HKD 348 [1].

Core Insights - The company reported an improvement in same-store sales across its three main brands, with Taier showing the most significant recovery, indicating a positive trend in operational performance [1][2] Group 1: Operational Performance - Taier's same-store daily sales decreased by 9.3% year-on-year in Q3 2025, a significant improvement from a decline of 19.0% in the first half of the year [1] - Same-store sales in key cities like Beijing and Shanghai achieved positive year-on-year growth in Q3, reflecting successful store model optimization and regional strategy adjustments [1] - The company continues to implement its "5.0 Fresh Model" restaurant upgrades, with 106 locations operational by the end of September, aiming to expand to over 200 by year-end [1][2] Group 2: Store Structure and Strategy - As of September 30, 2025, the total number of restaurants (including franchises) reached 686, with Taier accounting for 530 locations [2] - The company has shifted its strategic focus from short-term promotions to enhancing product quality and customer experience, moving away from price competition [2] - Taier's self-operated table turnover rate was 3.3, with a stable average spending of 74 yuan per customer [2] Group 3: Financial Projections - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to 150 million, 204 million, and 242 million yuan respectively, reflecting confidence in growth drivers [3] - The projected price-to-earnings ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 15.2, 11.2, and 9.4 times, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [3] - A target price of 2.24 HKD is set for 2026, maintaining a "Buy" rating based on brand strength and product innovation capabilities [3]