Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate (Maintain)" [4] Core Views - The company is facing performance pressure due to external environmental factors, with a cautious expansion strategy focusing on new stores and menu adjustments [2][3] - The company reported a revenue of 6.074 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, but a significant decline in net profit attributable to shareholders, down 87.7% to 56 million yuan [1][3] - The company is optimizing its brand portfolio and enhancing supply chain capabilities, with new store formats and menu updates expected to drive future growth [8] Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 60.74 billion yuan, with a core operating profit of 2.52 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 60.1% [1] - In the second half of 2024, the company reported a net profit of -16 million yuan, compared to 231 million yuan in the same period last year [3] - The company plans to achieve revenues of 67.61 billion yuan, 78.78 billion yuan, and 92.92 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 99 million yuan, 263 million yuan, and 411 million yuan [8][9] Store Expansion and Operations - The company opened 150 new stores in 2024, including 95 for the Taier brand and 28 for the Song Hotpot brand, while closing 69 stores [2] - As of the end of 2024, the total number of Taier stores reached 634, with a same-store sales decline of 18.8% [2] - The company is enhancing its supply chain capabilities with a new center expected to be operational by 2025, which will support core brand ingredient processing and sales [8]

Core Viewpoint - The restaurant chain Jiumaojiu reported a slight revenue increase of 1.5% to 6.074 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2024, but its net profit plummeted by 87.7% to 55.81 million yuan, indicating significant operational challenges and declining consumer interest [1] Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2024 was 6.074 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [1] - Net profit fell sharply by 87.7% to 55.81 million yuan [1] - The company proposed a dividend payout of 0.02 HKD per share, totaling approximately 51.62 million yuan, a decrease of 74.6% from over 200 million yuan in 2023 [1] Operational Challenges - The total number of restaurants increased by 81, but the main brand Jiumaojiu saw a net decrease of 6 locations [1] - Same-store sales for Jiumaojiu and Taier dropped by 13.0% and 18.8%, respectively, with the latter's sales falling from 5.09 billion yuan to 3.48 billion yuan, a decline of over 31% [5] - The average consumer spending for Jiumaojiu, Taier, and Song Hotpot decreased by 5.2%, 5.3%, and 8.8%, respectively, reaching levels comparable to those during the pandemic [2][5] Market Competition - The domestic restaurant industry saw a revenue growth of 5.3% in 2024, down from over 20% in 2023, indicating increased competition with 3.574 million new restaurant registrations [2] - The turnover rates for Jiumaojiu, Taier, and Song Hotpot decreased by 5.6%, 16.7%, and 28.6%, respectively, reflecting a decline in customer traffic [3] Strategic Initiatives - Jiumaojiu has opened up franchise opportunities for the Taier brand and is focusing on expanding the new brand "Shanwaimian" through a franchise model [8][10] - The company is attempting to upgrade its existing brands by introducing fresh ingredients and new menu items to counteract the negative perception of pre-prepared dishes [6] International Expansion - Jiumaojiu's international expansion has been slow, with only 30 overseas locations established since 2021, primarily in Southeast Asia and North America [11] - The average turnover rate for overseas restaurants has decreased from 4.4 times to 4.2 times per day, indicating challenges in adapting to local markets [11]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Hold" rating with a target price of HKD 3.0 per share, indicating a potential upside of 14.5% from the current price of HKD 2.62 [5][16]. Core Views - The company's main brands are currently in a period of adjustment, and the effectiveness and sustainability of these changes need further observation. The company continues to be affected by external environmental factors [5][16]. - The first quarter of 2025 shows slight improvements in operations, although the overall performance remains under pressure due to external conditions [3][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the turnover rates for the main brands were 3.1, 2.6, and 2.6 times per day for Tai Er, Song Hotpot, and Jiu Mao Jiu respectively, showing year-on-year declines of -0.8, -0.4, and -0.4 times per day. Compared to Q4 2024, there were slight improvements [3][7]. - Same-store daily sales decreased year-on-year by -21.2%, -24.2%, and -18.6% for the respective brands, but the decline showed slight improvement compared to Q4 2024 [3][7]. - Average customer spending was RMB 72, RMB 100, and RMB 56 for the three brands, with year-on-year changes of -1.4%, -13.8%, and -1.8% respectively, indicating some stabilization [3][7]. Store Expansion and Strategy - The company is pursuing a cautious expansion strategy while closing underperforming stores. In Q1 2025, Tai Er opened 1 new store in Hong Kong and closed 26 underperforming stores, while Song Hotpot opened 3 and closed 2. Jiu Mao Jiu closed 2 stores without opening new ones [3][8]. - As of the end of Q1 2025, the total number of stores was 780, with Tai Er having 610, Song Hotpot 81, and Jiu Mao Jiu 69 [8]. Customer Experience Initiatives - Tai Er is focusing on enhancing customer experience by launching new products and a "Heartfelt Service Plan." In March 2025, a new "Fresh" store model was introduced to improve customer satisfaction and dining experience [4][15]. - Song Hotpot has upgraded its product offerings and dining environment to be more customer-friendly, enhancing customer loyalty through promotional activities [4][15]. Earnings Forecast - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be RMB 0.1, RMB 0.15, and RMB 0.24 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 25.4, 16.7, and 10.1 [6][16].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Hold" rating with a target price of HKD 3.0 per share, indicating a potential upside of 14.5% from the current price of HKD 2.62 [5][16]. Core Views - The company's main brands are currently in a period of adjustment, and the effectiveness and sustainability of these changes need further observation. The company continues to be affected by external environmental factors [5][16]. - The first quarter of 2025 shows slight improvements in operations, with the main brands experiencing marginal increases in table turnover rates compared to the previous quarter, although year-on-year comparisons remain negative [3][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the table turnover rates for the main brands were 3.1 for Tai Er, 2.6 for Song Hotpot, and 2.6 for Jiu Mao Jiu, reflecting year-on-year declines of -0.8, -0.4, and -0.4 times per day respectively. Compared to Q4 2024, there were slight improvements [3][7]. - Same-store daily sales decreased year-on-year by -21.2%, -24.2%, and -18.6% for the respective brands, but showed slight improvement compared to Q4 2024 [3][7]. - The average customer spending per visit was 72, 100, and 56 yuan for the three brands, with year-on-year changes of -1.4%, -13.8%, and -1.8% respectively, indicating some stabilization [3][7]. Store Expansion and Strategy - The company is pursuing a cautious expansion strategy while closing underperforming stores. In Q1 2025, Tai Er opened 1 new store in Hong Kong and closed 26 underperforming stores, while Song Hotpot opened 3 and closed 2. Jiu Mao Jiu closed 2 stores without opening new ones [8][3]. - As of the end of Q1 2025, the total number of stores was 780, with Tai Er having 610, Song Hotpot 81, and Jiu Mao Jiu 69 [8][3]. Customer Experience Focus - Tai Er is focusing on enhancing customer experience by launching new initiatives and a "Fresh" store model in March 2025 to improve customer satisfaction and dining experience [4][15]. - Song Hotpot has upgraded its product offerings and dining environment to be more customer-friendly, aiming to increase customer loyalty through various promotional activities [4][15]. Earnings Forecast - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 0.1, 0.15, and 0.24 yuan respectively, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 19 times for 2026 [5][16].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs maintains a neutral rating on Jiumaojiu (09922) with a 12-month target price of HKD 3.3, based on an expected EV/EBITDA ratio of 8 times for 2025 [1] Sales Performance - Same-store sales decline has narrowed due to a lower base, but short-term pressures remain; Jiumaojiu's same-store sales declined by 18.6% year-on-year, while Taier and Song Hotpot saw declines of 21.2% and 24.2% respectively [2] - Taier's recovery is approximately 60% of pre-pandemic levels, while Jiumaojiu's recovery has decreased from 62% to 60% [2][7] Store Network - Taier closed 24 stores in Q1 2025, aligning with management's plan to close about 10% of stores in the first half of 2025; Song Hotpot and Jiumaojiu's store networks remained stable compared to Q4 2024 [2] Average Table Turnover Rate - Taier's average table turnover rate was 3.1 times in Q1 2025, slightly up from 3.0 times in Q4 2024; Song Hotpot's turnover rate was 2.6 times, down from 2.7 times [3][5] Average Selling Price (ASP) - Taier's ASP remained stable at 72 CNY in Q1 2025; Song Hotpot's ASP increased to 100 CNY from 99 CNY in 2024, while Jiumaojiu's ASP rose to 56 CNY from 54 CNY [3][6][8]

Core Viewpoint - The restaurant industry is undergoing a significant transformation from aggressive expansion to strategic contraction, with companies like Jiumaojiu facing severe operational challenges due to market saturation and internal mismanagement [1][3][18]. Group 1: Company Performance - Jiumaojiu International Holdings Limited reported a decline in restaurant numbers for two consecutive quarters, with significant drops in table turnover rates and same-store daily sales [1][3]. - The revenue for Jiumaojiu decreased from RMB 628.372 million in 2023 to RMB 545.507 million in 2024, indicating a downward trend in financial performance [4]. - The brand "Tai Er Suan Cai Yu" experienced a drop in table turnover rate from 4.0 to 3.1, reflecting a decline in customer traffic [4][12]. Group 2: Strategic Adjustments - Jiumaojiu has initiated a strategic contraction by ceasing operations of its sub-brands and closing underperforming stores, which has negatively impacted overall revenue [3][6]. - The company has acknowledged the need to adjust its store opening strategy based on market conditions, indicating a shift from aggressive expansion to a more cautious approach [14]. - The competitive landscape has forced Jiumaojiu to attempt price reductions to attract customers, but this strategy has not effectively countered the decline in customer interest [6][17]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The restaurant industry is witnessing a divide where leading brands like Haidilao maintain stability through operational efficiency, while others like Jiumaojiu and Xiaobai are forced to shrink due to competitive pressures [16][18]. - The overall market for hot pot and similar dining experiences is becoming increasingly saturated, leading to a decline in price advantages for mid-range brands [1][18]. - The shift from scale competition to efficiency competition highlights the necessity for brands to enhance operational effectiveness to survive in a challenging market environment [18].

Core Insights - The total number of restaurants under the brand classification reached 780 as of March 31, 2025 [1] - The main brands include 610 self-operated and franchised stores of Tai Er, 81 stores of Song Hot Pot, 69 stores of Jiu Mao Jiu, 1 store of Lai Mei Li, 1 store of Shang Xian Yue Mu, and 18 stores of Shan De Shan Wai Mian [1] Brand Performance - The table turnover rates for the main brands are as follows: Tai Er at 3.1, Song Hot Pot at 2.6, and Jiu Mao Jiu at 2.6 [1] - Average customer spending per brand is: Tai Er at 72 yuan, Song Hot Pot at 100 yuan, and Jiu Mao Jiu at 56 yuan [1] Same-store Sales Performance - Year-on-year changes in daily average sales for the main brands are: Tai Er at -21.2%, Song Hot Pot at -24.2%, and Jiu Mao Jiu at -18.6% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 6.074 billion RMB for the fiscal year 2024, marking a 1.5% year-on-year increase, while maintaining its position as a leading Chinese restaurant brand manager and operator [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The operating profit at the store level was 748 million RMB, and the profit attributable to equity shareholders was 56 million RMB [1] - The total dividend payout ratio, including special dividends, was approximately 92.5% of the annual profit attributable to equity shareholders, a significant increase of 49.4 percentage points compared to the previous year's payout ratio of 43.1% [1] Group 2: Business Strategy and Expansion - The company plans to continue optimizing store layouts and enhancing customer dining experiences while focusing on digital transformation and global market expansion in 2025 [1] - In 2024, the company opened 150 new restaurants, including 95 for the Taier brand, 28 for the Song Hotpot brand, and 20 for the Shanwaimian brand, among others [2] Group 3: Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from the Taier brand was 4.413 billion RMB, accounting for 72.7% of total revenue, a decrease from 74.8% in 2023 [3] - Revenue from the Song Hotpot brand increased by 11.0% to 895 million RMB, representing 14.7% of total revenue, up from 13.5% in 2023 [3] - Revenue from other brands surged by 201.4% to 220 million RMB, now making up 3.6% of total revenue, compared to 1.2% in 2023 [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][6]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 6.07 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.5%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 55.81 million yuan, a significant decline of 87.7% [6]. - The board proposed a final and special dividend totaling 0.04 HKD per share, with a payout ratio of approximately 92.5% of the net profit, and plans to maintain a payout ratio of no less than 40% in the future [6]. - The revenue structure shows that the main brands contributed significantly to the total revenue, with Taier, Song Hotpot, and Jiumaojiu accounting for 72.7%, 14.7%, and 9.0% respectively [6]. - The company is optimistic about its brand incubation capabilities and supply chain advantages, expecting a turnaround in profitability as it optimizes its restaurant brand mix [8]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company had a total revenue of 6.07 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.5%. The net profit was 55.81 million yuan, down 87.7% from the previous year [10]. - The operating profit margin at the restaurant level was 12.6%, a decrease of 5.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the core operating profit margin was 4.2%, down 6.4 percentage points [6]. - The company anticipates revenues of 6.92 billion yuan, 7.97 billion yuan, and 9.15 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.6%, 15.1%, and 14.7% [8][10]. Brand and Restaurant Performance - The total number of restaurants under the company reached 807 in 2024, with a net increase of 81 restaurants year-on-year. Taier and Song Hotpot continued to expand, while Jiumaojiu saw a slight decrease in the number of restaurants [7]. - The average customer spending for Taier, Jiumaojiu, and Song Hotpot decreased by 5.3%, 5.2%, and 8.8% respectively, indicating pressure on both volume and pricing [7]. Cost Structure and Profitability - The cost of raw materials and consumables increased by 0.9% to 2.16 billion yuan, accounting for 35.6% of total revenue [8]. - Employee costs rose by 13.1% to 1.75 billion yuan, representing 28.8% of total revenue, primarily due to a comprehensive salary increase in the second half of 2023 [8]. - Rent expenses increased by 16.5% to 1 billion yuan, accounting for 16.5% of total revenue, driven by an increase in the number of restaurants [8].

2025 年 4 月 1 日 公司研究 经营调整持续，24 年业绩承压 ——九毛九（9922.HK）2024 年年报点评 增持（维持） 当前价：2.88 港元 作者 分析师：陈彦彤 执业证书编号：S0930518070002 021-52523689 chenyt@ebscn.com 分析师：汪航宇 执业证书编号：S0930523070002 021-52523174 wanghangyu@ebscn.com 分析师：聂博雅 执业证书编号：S0930522030003 021-52523808 nieboya@ebscn.com | 市场数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(亿股) | 13.98 | | 总市值(亿港元)： | 40.25 | | 一年最低/最高(港元)： | 2.14/5.76 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 116.23% | 股价相对走势 -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 24/04 24/05 24/06 24/07 24/08 24/09 24/10 24/11 24/12 25/01 25/02 25/03 九毛九 恒生指数 | ...