Core Viewpoint - Jefferies has raised the target price for SMIC from HKD 57.00 to HKD 87.00 [1] Group 1 - The adjustment in target price reflects a positive outlook on SMIC's performance and market position [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company's Q3 performance exceeded its guidance, with revenue of $2.38 billion, representing a quarter-on-quarter growth of 10% and year-on-year growth of 8%, surpassing the guidance of 5% to 7% [1] - Gross margin was 22.0%, above the guidance of 18% to 20%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.5 percentage points [1] - Capacity utilization rate reached 95.8%, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.4 percentage points [1] - The company expects Q4 revenue to remain flat or grow by 2%, with a projected year-on-year growth of 8% to 10% and a gross margin of 18% to 20% [1] Market Demand and Industry Trends - Terminal market demand is improving, and domestic substitution in the supply chain is expected to sustain future demand for the company [2] - Despite concerns from some investors regarding conservative production planning by downstream customers due to rising storage prices, the company is likely to benefit from ongoing recovery in demand from mobile phones, home appliances, industrial, and automotive sectors [2] - In Q3 2025, revenue from the consumer electronics sector grew by 15% quarter-on-quarter, driven by domestic market share gains [2] - The company is positioned to maintain high capacity utilization levels moving forward [2] Technological Advancements and Product Development - The company is steadily advancing process innovations and increasing the proportion of high-value-added products [3] - Average selling price increased by 3.8% quarter-on-quarter due to a shift in product mix towards more complex products [3] - The ultra-low power 28nm logic process has entered mass production, providing customers with lower power consumption and higher quality solutions [3] - The company is expanding its embedded storage platform from consumer markets to automotive and industrial sectors, offering high reliability storage solutions with higher density and lower power consumption [3] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company forecasts net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 5.22 billion, 6.56 billion, and 7.98 billion yuan, respectively, with adjustments made to gross margin and expense ratios [4] - A DCF valuation method is used to set a target price of 146.89 yuan, maintaining a buy rating [4]

Market Data - As of November 14, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.97% to 3990.49 points, the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index dropped by 2.72% to 1361.23 points, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 1.93% to 13216.03 points, and the ChiNext Index declined by 2.82% to 3111.51 points [1] - In the U.S. stock market on the same day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 309.74 points, closing at 47147.48 points, a drop of 0.65%. The S&P 500 Index fell by 3.38 points to 6734.11 points, a decline of 0.05%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 30.23 points to 22900.59 points, an increase of 0.13% [1] - International oil prices increased on November 14, with light crude oil futures for December delivery rising by $1.40 to $60.09 per barrel, a gain of 2.39%, and January delivery Brent crude oil futures increasing by $1.38 to $64.39 per barrel, a rise of 2.19% [1] Economic News - The State Council of China held a meeting on November 14 to discuss policies aimed at enhancing the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods and to promote consumption [2] - The State Administration for Market Regulation released a draft guideline on antitrust compliance for internet platforms, addressing competitive behaviors and providing clear guidelines for platform operators [2] - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments issued a notice to strengthen the management of second-hand car exports, requiring additional documentation for vehicles registered less than 180 days before export [3] Company Updates - Semiconductor company SMIC reported that despite a traditional seasonal slowdown, it expects Q4 revenue to remain flat or grow by 2%, with a projected annual sales revenue exceeding $9 billion [7] - Industrial Fulian responded to rumors regarding a reduction in cabinet shipments and performance expectations, stating that current project progress and delivery schedules are normal [10] - Berkshire Hathaway disclosed its Q3 holdings, with a total market value of $267 billion, indicating a significant investment in Alphabet, suggesting a potential shift in investment strategy [8]

Core Insights - SMIC's Q3 2025 financial results show significant growth, with revenue reaching 17.162 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.9%, and net profit of 1.517 billion yuan, up 43.1% [1][2] - The company has achieved a monthly production capacity exceeding 1 million wafers, representing about one-third of the global foundry leader's capacity [1][4] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 has rebounded to 22.0%, reflecting a 1.6 percentage point increase from the previous quarter, driven by the resolution of production fluctuations and product structure optimization [2] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, SMIC reported total revenue of 49.510 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.2%, and a net profit of 3.818 billion yuan, up 41.1% [2][3] - The company anticipates that its total sales revenue for the year will exceed 9 billion USD, marking a new milestone in scale [2] Production Capacity and Utilization - As of Q3 2025, SMIC's production capacity utilization rate reached 95.8%, an increase of 3.3 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating strong market demand [1][4] - The monthly production capacity is projected to reach 948,000 wafers by the end of 2024, with an additional 20,000 wafers of 12-inch capacity expected in the first half of 2025 [4] Revenue Breakdown by Application - In Q3 2025, the revenue structure showed that the consumer electronics sector was the most prominent, accounting for 43.4% of total revenue, a 15% increase from the previous quarter [2][3] - Other revenue contributions came from smartphones (21.5%), computers and tablets (15.2%), IoT and wearables (8.0%), and industrial and automotive sectors (11.9%) [3] Regional Market Performance - The revenue from the Chinese market accelerated, increasing to 86.2% of total revenue in Q3 2025, up from 84.1% in Q2 2025, driven by domestic companies gaining market share [3]

Group 1: Banking Sector - The net profit growth rate of commercial banks in the first three quarters of 2025 improved by 1.2 percentage points compared to the first half of 2025, with state-owned banks showing the highest growth at 2.3% [4] - City commercial banks demonstrated the most significant improvement in net profit growth, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.8 percentage points [4] - The overall interest income is expected to have solid support for the year, alongside a recovery in the capital market, which may sustain the recovery of fee-based income [4] Group 2: Non-Ferrous Metals - In the U.S., electricity supply is tight due to the rapid development of data centers, creating investment opportunities in electrolytic aluminum [5] - The U.S. is projected to generate 4.3 trillion kWh of electricity in 2024, with a consumption of 4.1 trillion kWh, ensuring sufficient power supply [5] - Industrial electricity consumption accounts for 26% of total usage, indicating a significant demand from the industrial sector [5] Group 3: Copper Industry - Refined copper inventory among downstream consumers hit a new low since 2015, indicating ongoing supply tightness [5] - Cable manufacturers' operating rates are recovering amid rising copper prices, and the fourth quarter is expected to benefit from seasonal demand [5] - The supply-demand balance is expected to remain tight, with copper prices likely to continue rising after short-term fluctuations [5] Group 4: Petrochemical Industry - The implementation of anti-involution policies is gradually taking shape, with a focus on optimizing market competition in the chemical industry [7] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently held a meeting on the development of PTA and bottle chips, signaling a commitment to stabilize growth in the chemical sector [7] - The chemical industry is expected to see a valuation recovery due to improved supply-demand dynamics [7] Group 5: Semiconductor Industry - SMIC's Q3 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue of $2.382 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.8% [8] - The increase in wafer shipments by 4.6% quarter-on-quarter and a 3.8% rise in average selling price (ASP) were driven by improved product mix and higher sales of advanced process products [8] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 22%, surpassing the company's guidance range and market expectations [8] Group 6: Entertainment Industry - Damai Entertainment reported a revenue of 4.05 billion RMB for FY26H1, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 33% [8] - The company achieved a gross profit of 1.44 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 35.7%, down 7.4 percentage points year-on-year [8] - Adjusted EBITA was 550 million RMB, showing a 14% increase compared to the previous year after excluding one-time gains [8] Group 7: Cosmetics Industry - The company proposed a restricted stock incentive plan to motivate core employees, indicating confidence in long-term development [9] - Sales during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival showed strong growth, with significant year-on-year increases across various platforms [9] - The brand entered the top 20 in the beauty category on Tmall for the first time, ranking 20th, and topped the domestic makeup category on JD.com [9]

Core Viewpoint - The company's Q3 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with significant revenue growth and improved profit margins, indicating strong demand and effective operational strategies [4][5][6]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue reached $2.382 billion, a year-over-year increase of 9.7% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 7.8%, surpassing both company guidance and market expectations [4]. - Gross margin for Q3 2025 was 22%, up 1.5 percentage points year-over-year and 1.6 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, exceeding the company's guidance of 18% to 20% [4]. - Net profit for Q3 2025 was $315 million, with attributable net profit of $192 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 28.9% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 44.7% [4]. Group 2: Revenue Breakdown - Revenue by application in Q3 2025: smartphones (21.5%), computers and tablets (15.2%), consumer electronics (43.4%), IoT and wearables (8.0%), industrial and automotive (11.9%) [5]. - 12-inch wafer revenue accounted for 77% of total wafer revenue in Q3 2025, with a year-over-year decrease of 1.5 percentage points [5]. - Regional revenue distribution in Q3 2025: China (86.2%), USA (10.8%), and Eurasia (3%) [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Strong overall demand continues to outstrip supply, with AI demand expected to remain robust and moderate growth in other sectors [6]. - The trend of domestic substitution is driving increased orders and market share for the company, particularly in the analog chip, memory, and CIS sectors [6]. - Short-term disruptions in output due to memory chip shortages are noted, but overall demand remains unaffected [6]. Group 4: Capacity and Investment - Q3 2025 capacity utilization rate was 95.8%, an increase of 5.4 percentage points year-over-year and 3.3 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [7]. - Capital expenditure for Q3 2025 was $2.39 billion, a quarter-over-quarter increase of 27%, with expectations for 2025 capital expenditure to remain stable or slightly increase [7]. - The company anticipates accelerated capacity expansion in 2026 due to sustained demand from AI, memory, and domestic substitution trends [7].

Summary of SMIC's Q3 2025 Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation) - **Period**: Q3 2025 Key Financial Metrics - **Revenue**: $2.382 billion, a 7.8% increase quarter-over-quarter [3] - **EBITDA**: $1.43 billion, with an EBITDA margin of 60% [2][3] - **Net Profit**: $192 million attributable to the company [2][3] - **Total Assets**: $49.4 billion, Total Liabilities: $16.4 billion, Total Equity: $33.1 billion [4] - **Debt-to-Equity Ratio**: 34.8%, Net Debt-to-Equity Ratio: 0.4% [4] Operational Highlights - **Production Capacity**: Monthly capacity reached 1.023 million 8-inch wafers, with a capacity utilization rate of 95.8% [7] - **Revenue by Region**: China accounted for 86% of revenue, with a 11% increase in absolute revenue quarter-over-quarter [8] - **Revenue by Application**: - Consumer Electronics: 43% - Smartphones: 22% - Computers and Tablets: 15% - Industrial and Automotive: 12% [9] Gross Margin and Profitability - **Gross Margin**: 22%, up 1.6 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, driven by increased capacity utilization and output [2][10] - **Operating Profit**: $351 million [3] Future Guidance - **Q4 2025 Revenue Forecast**: Expected to remain flat or grow by 2% quarter-over-quarter, with a gross margin forecast of 18% to 20% [6][12] - **Full Year 2025 Revenue Projection**: Anticipated to exceed $9 billion, marking a new milestone in revenue scale [12] Industry Dynamics - **Market Trends**: Rapid expansion in China's wafer manufacturing, particularly in memory and logic circuits, despite ASML's prediction of a decline in revenue share from Chinese customers [2][16] - **Impact of Memory Cycle**: Positive effects on manufacturing but negative impacts on end-product manufacturers due to supply uncertainties and price pressures [16] Cost Management - **Administrative Expenses**: Lower in Q3 due to reduced one-time costs and effective cost control measures [17][18] - **Future Outlook**: Expected to return to normal levels as one-time adjustments cease [18] Competitive Landscape - **Market Positioning**: SMIC maintains a competitive edge through high-quality technology, long-term customer relationships, and rapid cost response [24] - **Inventory Situation**: The market is still in a replenishment phase, with uncertainties in demand due to memory shortages [25] Conclusion - **Overall Performance**: SMIC demonstrated strong financial performance in Q3 2025, with solid revenue growth, high gross margins, and a robust operational capacity. The company is well-positioned to navigate industry challenges and capitalize on emerging opportunities in the semiconductor market.

Summary of Semiconductor Equipment & Foundry Conference Call Industry Overview - The global semiconductor industry experienced unexpected growth in Q3, driven by increased capital expenditure overseas, with expectations for continued high growth into 2026. AI demand is a key driver, but its sustainability will determine how long this semiconductor cycle remains elevated [1][2][3] Key Company Insights TSMC - TSMC's Q3 performance significantly outpaced the industry average, with revenue growth around 40% and gross margin nearing 60%. The strong demand for AI has led TSMC to increase its capital expenditure. The High-Performance Computing (HPC) segment now accounts for over 50% of its revenue, indicating that AI has become a dominant force in the high-end market. If AI growth continues, TSMC's revenue and profit margins have room for further increases [3][4] UMC and SMIC - The consumer electronics sector remains weak, with UMC and other overseas foundries underperforming. In contrast, SMIC benefits from domestic opportunities, achieving high capacity utilization and exceeding expected gross margins. Q4 revenue is projected to grow sequentially, with a year-on-year growth rate close to 10% [5][6] Hua Hong - Hua Hong focuses on industrial and automotive sectors, experiencing rapid growth due to accelerated domestic production. Its growth rate exceeds that of SMIC at around 20%, with high capacity utilization and significant margin improvements. As the largest power analog MCU foundry in China, Hua Hong's future outlook is positive [6][7] Semiconductor Equipment Industry - The semiconductor equipment sector is lagging behind the industry cycle, but capacity shortages are driving increased investment in equipment. Companies like TSMC have raised capital expenditures, and memory manufacturers are expected to expand further next year, enhancing the industry's outlook. Equipment growth is projected to exceed 20% starting in the second half of 2024 [8][9] Market Dynamics - The global foundry and semiconductor equipment markets performed well in Q3, driven by AI investment demand in overseas markets and strong demand for mature process foundries in the domestic market. The overall semiconductor growth in Q3 was again above expectations, with rising capital expenditures anticipated for 2026 [2][10] Storage Industry Insights - The storage industry is currently facing a supply-demand imbalance, primarily due to strong sales from Apple and rapid growth in the AI market, leading to a shortage of storage chips. This situation is expected to persist until at least the second half of 2026, despite potential acceleration in domestic production [13][14] Future Trends - The semiconductor equipment industry's growth is expected to continue, with historical cycles indicating a 50% increase in demand following each expansion phase. The current industry size is over $120 billion, with projections for growth to $150 billion in the next cycle [9][12] Conclusion - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a robust cycle driven by AI demand, with key players like TSMC and SMIC capitalizing on domestic opportunities. The equipment sector is poised for growth, and the storage market is currently constrained, indicating a complex but promising landscape for investors [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14]

Summary of SMIC (0981.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation) - **Ticker**: 0981.HK - **Industry**: Semiconductor Foundry Key Points Financial Performance - **3Q25 Results**: SMIC's 3Q25 results exceeded estimates and Bloomberg consensus, indicating strong operational performance [1][2] - **4Q25 Revenue Guidance**: Management expects a revenue increase of 0% to 2% QoQ for 4Q25, aligning with company guidance [1][2] - **Gross Margin Guidance**: Gross margin for 4Q25 is projected to be between 18% and 20%, consistent with the previous quarter but slightly below prior expectations [1] Growth Drivers - **Domestic Client Shipments**: Increased shipments to domestic clients are expected due to industry reshuffling opportunities [1][2] - **Capacity Expansion**: SMIC's capacity increased by 31.5k wpm in 3Q25, with similar growth anticipated in 4Q25. Full-year capex guidance remains flat or slightly increased YoY [3] - **Product Mix**: There is a growing contribution from 12-inch and higher value products, which is expected to drive revenue growth in the long term [1] Market Dynamics - **Demand Trends**: Management noted gradual growth in non-AI areas, particularly in consumer electronics, driven by market share gains among Chinese IC design clients and strong domestic consumption [2] - **MCU Market Potential**: There is an anticipated upside in the MCU market in China, where local IC designers are expected to play a larger role [2] - **Smartphone Market Uncertainty**: Some smartphone-related customers are becoming conservative due to memory shortages, which may impact shipments [2] Earnings Revisions - **Earnings Estimates**: Revisions for 2025-2029E earnings were made, with slight increases in operating profit margins (OPM) due to improved expense control [4][8] - **Net Income Growth**: The growth of net income attributed to non-controlling shareholders is outpacing that of net income to the parent company, indicating a shift in profit distribution [8] Valuation and Price Target - **Target Price**: The 12-month target price for SMIC's H-share is raised to HK$134.0, reflecting a P/E of 71.6x for 2028E earnings [10][26] - **A-share Target Price**: The target price for the A-share is set at Rmb241.6, based on a 196% premium over the H-share [11][26] Risks - **Demand Risks**: Potential weaker-than-expected demand in smartphones and consumer electronics could impact revenue [27] - **Capacity Expansion Risks**: Slower-than-expected product diversification and capacity expansions may hinder growth [27] - **Supply Chain Risks**: Access to certain equipment and materials may be restricted due to the company's status on the US BIS Entity List [28] Investment Thesis - **Long-term Growth**: SMIC is positioned to benefit from increasing local demand for semiconductors and a gradual recovery in margins, making it an attractive investment opportunity [29] Conclusion - **Recommendation**: Maintain a Buy rating on SMIC, with a positive outlook on its growth trajectory driven by domestic demand and capacity expansion initiatives [1][29]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry and Companies Involved - **Industry**: Semiconductor and Storage Industry - **Companies**: - SMIC (中芯国际) - Industrial Fulian (工业富联) - Nvidia - TSMC (台积电) - Micron - SK Hynix - Lam Research - Tokyo Electron - Xiaomi - Lenovo - Samsung - Kioxia - Western Digital - Huahong (华虹) Key Points and Arguments AI Demand and Market Impact - AI computing demand is surging, benefiting companies like Nvidia, TSMC, SMIC, and Industrial Fulian, but rising storage prices are expected to decrease the gross margins of Chinese smartphone manufacturers by 3%-4% [1][2] - Component shortages are impacting the shipment volumes of smartphone and automotive manufacturers, particularly in the first half of 2025 [1][2] Storage Market Dynamics - Storage companies are hesitant to expand production due to concerns over the AI bubble and past losses in NAND business, leading to a forecast of continued NAND price increases in the first half of 2025 [1][5] - Major overseas storage companies like Micron and SK Hynix are expected to achieve operating profit margins of up to 70% next year, while equipment suppliers like Lam Research and Tokyo Electron will also benefit [1][8] SMIC's Business Outlook - SMIC's business structure is expected to change significantly by 2026, with consumer business affected by storage shortages, but increased demand in computing sectors may offset this decline [1][6] - The company is making steady progress in advanced processes and localization, benefiting from AI-related expectations and capacity releases in southern China [1][3] Industrial Fulian's Performance - Industrial Fulian is projected to sell over 100,000 cabinets by 2026, significantly enhancing profitability, with a net profit exceeding 10 billion RMB in Q3, a year-on-year increase of over 30% [1][7][14] Price Disparities in Memory Products - The price difference between HBM3 (approximately $14 per GB) and LPDDR5 (approximately $1.5 to $1.6 per GB) is nearly tenfold, leading manufacturers to favor HBM production, which is driving up prices for server ESSD and encroaching on the NAND market share for smartphones [1][10][11] Global Semiconductor Industry Trends - The overall cabinet delivery quantity is expected to exceed 100,000 by 2026, with Nvidia contributing 20 million GPUs, indicating a potential growth of two to three times compared to 2025 [1][17] - The semiconductor industry is anticipated to experience some fluctuations in revenue in the first half of 2026, but product prices are expected to rise due to increased AI-related demand and the release of advanced process capacities [1][18] Challenges and Opportunities in the Storage Market - The storage market faces challenges such as cautious expansion from NAND manufacturers due to past losses, but there is still significant upside potential in NAND and DRAM markets driven by high-value ESSD server flash demand [1][22] Future of Domestic Equipment Enterprises - Domestic equipment companies in China are expected to see strong capital expenditure growth, with a current localization rate of about 22%-23% [1][21] Consumer Electronics and AI Industry Trends - If AI shipment volumes achieve a 50% growth target, it will boost the performance and stock prices of companies like Nvidia, TSMC, and Industrial Fulian, while the consumer electronics sector may face pressure [1][23] Conclusion - The semiconductor and storage industries are at a pivotal moment, with AI demand driving growth but also presenting challenges such as rising costs and supply chain issues. Companies like SMIC and Industrial Fulian are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends, while the overall market dynamics will continue to evolve in response to technological advancements and consumer demand shifts.