市场点金 布局2026：五大具备强逻辑的行业赛道 薛洪言 星图金融研究院副院长 2026年，AI硬件、生物医药、航空航天、电力设备、有色金属这五大赛道在宏观周期与产业变革的共 振中，展现出清晰的确定性投资逻辑。 从驱动因素看，这些行业在产业周期、政策支持与技术突破三个维度高度协同：有色金属处于"产能不 足、需求扩张"的紧平衡阶段；电力设备迎来储能与新能源车的库存周期复苏；航空航天步入"十五 五"战略投入期；生物医药处于创新药出海与CXO业绩拐点的共振期；AI硬件则处于技术扩散与商业化 落地的爆发期。 长期而言，这五大赛道不仅具备年度配置价值，更是中国经济从"规模扩张"向"高质量发展"转型的核心 载体。它们既承载"硬科技自主可控"的战略使命，又契合"绿色转型"与"民生改善"的长期需求，有望在 产业升级与全球竞争背景下持续释放价值，为理性投资者带来可持续的长期回报。 宏观慧眼 如何理解"因地制宜发展新质生产力"？ 付一夫 苏商银行高级研究员 我们需从规划引导、要素配置、创新协同、政策优化四个层面构建支撑体系： 首先，要强化顶层规划与不同区域间的对接。国家层面应完善区域协调发展战略，明确不同区域新质生 产力的发展重 ...

Jul-08 the first and the first the first to the state of th （作者薛洪言为星图金融研究院副院长） 时近2025年尾声，全球资本市场正经历着罕见的复杂变局。经济复苏步伐不一，地缘政治扰动频发，货币政策转向在即，多重因素交织下，投资布局难度显 著加大。在此背景下，聚焦具备"强逻辑、高壁垒、稳需求"特征的优质赛道，已成为机构资金穿越宏观波动的关键策略。随着2026年，这一被业内视为"货 币宽松周期"与"产业升级浪潮"深度叠加的关键节点临近，一批政策支持明确、需求刚性突出且供应壁垒显著的行业，正凭借其"抗周期能力强、成长确定性 高"的核心优势，脱颖而出。 本文将深入剖析有色金属、电力设备、航空航天、生物医药及AI硬件五大高确定性赛道，从产业周期、政策红利、技术突破与供需格局等多维度，系统解 构其内在投资逻辑与价值实现路径，拟为投资者布局2026年提供一份清晰的行动指南。 一、有色金属：三重共振驱动资源品价值重估 2025年以来，申万有色金属指数累计上涨77.71%，领涨所有一级行业。这一强势表现并非偶然，而是货币环境、需求结构与供应刚性三重因素共振的必然 结 ...

Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor design sector is expected to maintain high global computing power investment levels through 2026, driven by strong demand for AI new terminals and related chips [2][5] - Domestic wafer manufacturing capacity is anticipated to expand rapidly, maintaining high utilization rates due to strong demand from AI, automotive electronics, and AIoT device upgrades [2][7] - Key investment themes in the manufacturing sector include advancements in process technology and domestic production of storage chips [2][7] ICT Equipment and Supply Chain - The domestic AI computing network is viewed positively, with recommendations to focus on servers, switches, PCBs, liquid cooling, and optical modules [2][10] - The telecommunications industry is expected to benefit from the commercialization of 6G, particularly in wireless communication base stations [2][10] Consumer Electronics - The global smartphone market is projected to experience a mild recovery, with 2026 potentially marking a significant year for AI consumer terminals [3][12] - AI-enabled products such as toys and learning machines are expected to see new developments, driven by decreasing costs of large model AI applications [3][12] Intelligent Driving and Robotics - The automotive electronics sector is expected to benefit from the acceleration of intelligent driving technologies, particularly in sensors and domain controllers [3][16] - The year 2026 is anticipated to be pivotal for the large-scale implementation of AI and robotics, with significant advancements in sensor technology and processing capabilities [3][17] Other Consumer Electronics - Despite short-term disruptions from tariffs, China's core position in the global consumer electronics supply chain remains strong [3][14]

Core Insights - The A-share semiconductor sector has shown significant "structural prosperity" in the third quarter of 2025, driven by surging demand in AI computing and high-end storage, with net profits of 32 companies doubling year-on-year [1][2] - The overall revenue of the sector only slightly increased by 0.2%, indicating a reality of weak demand in traditional consumer electronics, leading to ongoing industry differentiation [1][4] Profit Recovery - Profit recovery is the most critical keyword for the third quarter reports, with the median year-on-year growth rate of net profits for 166 A-share semiconductor companies reaching 19.9%, a substantial increase of 14.8 percentage points compared to the previous year [1][2] High-Performing Companies - The AI wave has been the core engine for the recovery of the semiconductor cycle, with 55 companies reporting a year-on-year net profit growth of over 50%, and 32 companies achieving net profit growth of 100% or more [2] - Notable performers include Source Technology, which saw a net profit increase of 193 times, and Cambricon, with a revenue growth rate of 2386.38% and a net profit growth of 321.5% [2] Revenue Growth and Challenges - Despite impressive profit figures, the overall revenue growth for the sector was only 0.2%, with the median revenue growth rate dropping from 21.8% last year to 17.85% this year [4] - Traditional consumer electronics, such as computers and smartphones, have shown relatively slow performance, becoming a major drag on overall revenue growth [5] Investment Trends - Foreign investment is increasingly focused on leading companies, with 45 semiconductor firms having over 2% of their shares held by foreign investors, indicating confidence in the long-term development and current recovery of the sector [5] - The investment logic in the semiconductor sector has shifted from a "broad rise" to a "structured" market, with high-demand areas like AI computing, high-end storage, domestic equipment materials, and automotive semiconductors expected to remain focal points for market attention [5]

Core Insights - The A-share semiconductor sector is experiencing structural prosperity, driven by surging demand in AI computing, memory, and new energy, leading to a significant recovery in profitability for listed companies [1][2] - The overall revenue growth of the semiconductor sector is modest, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.2%, indicating a divergence in demand across different sub-sectors [1][5] Revenue and Profitability - In the first three quarters, 32 semiconductor companies achieved a year-on-year net profit increase of over 100%, with the median net profit growth rate for 166 listed companies at 19.9%, a significant recovery from -40.7% in 2022 [3][4] - The total revenue for 166 semiconductor companies reached 439.206 billion yuan, a slight increase from 438.101 billion yuan in the same period last year, reflecting a modest growth rate [5] Market Performance - The average year-to-date increase for the semiconductor sector is 41%, with 15 stocks doubling in value, including Demingli, Dongxin Co., and Jiangbolong [1] - The China Semiconductor Chip Index reached a historical high of 13,981.14 points on October 9, before retreating 15.8% to close at 12,085.43 points on November 3 [1] Investment Trends - The "smart money" represented by the Shanghai-Shenzhen Stock Connect shows confidence in the semiconductor sector, with 45 companies having over 2% of their total shares held by foreign investors [1] - Key companies like Lanke Technology, Northern Huachuang, and OmniVision have over 10% of their shares held by foreign investors, indicating strong foreign interest in these semiconductor leaders [1] Sector Differentiation - The semiconductor industry is characterized by structural prosperity, with significant performance differences across sub-sectors due to varying downstream application demands [6] - AI computing and high-end chip design are leading the recovery, with companies like Haiguang Information reporting a 54.65% year-on-year revenue increase [7] Storage and Equipment - The storage chip sector is experiencing a rare supply-demand imbalance, with major companies like Micron and Samsung reallocating capacity to high-end products, resulting in significant revenue growth for A-share storage chip companies [7][8] - The semiconductor equipment sector remains robust, driven by domestic substitution logic and global capacity expansion, with companies like Tuojing Technology reporting over 100% growth in revenue and net profit [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the active positioning of newly established equity funds in the third quarter of 2023, with a focus on sectors such as non-ferrous metals, humanoid robots, and computing power, amidst a recovering A-share market [2][4][10]. Group 1: Fund Performance and Strategy - A total of 111 newly established active equity funds reported an average stock position of 77.65%, indicating a neutral to slightly aggressive stance [4]. - The Q3 performance of several funds has been notable, with the Qianhai Kaiyuan Research-Driven Fund achieving a return of over 46% since its inception in June, focusing on growth sectors like AI and semiconductors [4][6]. - The Huashan High-End Equipment Fund, established in late May, reported a nearly 48% return, concentrating on robotics and computing power sectors [6]. - The Jiashi Growth Win Fund, launched in mid-June, recorded a return of approximately 47%, with a stock position of 92.55%, emphasizing growth areas such as AI computing chips and optical communication [8]. Group 2: Key Holdings and Sector Focus - The top holdings of the Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund include Huahong Semiconductor, SMIC, and Boke New Materials, with a stock position of 90.24% [4][5]. - The Huashan High-End Equipment Fund's major holdings are Ningde Times, Industrial Fulian, and Zhongheng Electric, with a stock position of 87.25% [6][7]. - The Jiashi Growth Win Fund's primary investments are in Zhongji Xuchuang, Haiguang Information, and Industrial Fulian, with a stock position of 92.55% [8][9]. Group 3: Market Trends and Insights - The A-share market showed a broad increase in Q3, with growth styles outperforming, particularly in sectors like semiconductors and humanoid robots [10]. - Fund managers are focusing on cyclical assets, with non-bank financials and non-ferrous metals being highlighted as favorable sectors due to their positive outlook [10][11]. - The demand for computing power is expected to grow steadily over the next 2-3 years, with significant investments in AI and new hardware anticipated to drive future growth [11].

Core Viewpoint - The recent escalation of trade tensions between the US and China has led to the re-emergence of the "Taco trade" strategy, characterized by Trump's pattern of pressuring China with tariffs followed by signals of easing tensions, creating potential investment opportunities [1][4][11] Group 1: Trade Tensions and Market Reactions - The current trade friction is perceived to have a lesser impact compared to April, with the market expected to show greater resilience [2][3] - Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff effective after the APEC summit on November 1 indicates that the summit will be a critical point for negotiations [2][3] - Historical patterns suggest that the time between Trump's threats and subsequent retreats is short, indicating limited windows for market declines [2][3] Group 2: Taco Trade Logic - The "Taco trade" logic remains valid despite increasing tensions, with the potential for negotiations at the upcoming APEC summit [4][6][11] - The market has gained experience and adaptability since the trade war began in 2018, leading to reduced volatility compared to previous instances [3][6] - The current market environment, characterized by "loose monetary and fiscal" policies, differs from April, with investors having more experience in handling such situations [6][7] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The "Taco trade" has historically provided good buying opportunities following market declines triggered by tariff threats [6][8] - The technology sector, particularly in AI and semiconductor industries, is recommended for investment, especially if short-term market corrections occur [6][7] - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to face short-term pressure but may present buying opportunities due to its limited exposure to US exports [7][8] Group 4: Future Outlook - The upcoming APEC summit is seen as a potential venue for US-China negotiations, with expectations that the intensity and duration of the current trade conflict will be limited [5][9] - The market's response to trade tensions is becoming more rational, with diminishing marginal effects from tariff impacts as both sides continue to engage in economic cooperation [11]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market continues its upward trend, with significant performance in technology sectors such as storage chips, CPO, and advanced packaging, driven by positive earnings reports from companies in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The three major A-share indices are collectively strengthening, with the Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 Index rising by 0.9% as of 10:20 AM [1] - The market sentiment is stabilizing, with the performance of Sci-Tech Innovation Board companies contributing to the growth of cutting-edge technology [1] Group 2: Company Earnings - Several companies on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board have reported impressive third-quarter earnings, particularly in emerging industries like AI computing chips and optical communications [1] - Haiguang Information, a leading domestic high-end processor manufacturer, achieved total operating revenue of 9.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.65%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.961 billion yuan, up 28.56% [1] - Cambricon, a leading domestic AI chip manufacturer, reported operating revenue of 4.607 billion yuan, a substantial year-on-year increase of 2300%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.605 billion yuan, up 321.49% [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 Index consists of 50 securities with large market capitalization and good liquidity, reflecting the overall performance of representative Sci-Tech enterprises, with the semiconductor industry accounting for over 65% [1] - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 ETF (588080) saw a net inflow of over 600 million yuan yesterday, with a total scale exceeding 70 billion yuan and a management fee rate of only 0.15% per year, providing investors with a low-cost opportunity to invest in cutting-edge technology sectors [1]

Group 1: A-Share Market Performance - As of October 20, 79 A-share listed companies have released their Q3 reports, with 66 reporting profits and 13 reporting losses [1] - 58 companies achieved positive revenue growth, while 59 companies reported positive net profit growth [1] Group 2: AI Industry Performance - The AI industry continues to show strong performance, with leading domestic AI chip company Cambricon reporting a nearly 24-fold year-on-year increase in revenue for the first three quarters [1][5] - Cambricon's revenue reached 46.07 billion yuan, with a net profit of 16.05 billion yuan [5] - Cambricon's inventory reached a record high of 37.29 billion yuan, indicating increased supply [5] Group 3: Major Companies' Financials - Zijin Mining reported the highest revenue and net profit among listed companies, with Q3 revenue of 254.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.33%, and a net profit of 37.864 billion yuan, up 55.45% [2][3] - Fuyao Glass achieved revenue of 33.302 billion yuan, a 17.62% increase, and a net profit of 7.064 billion yuan, up 28.93% [3] - 12 companies reported declines in both revenue and net profit, including Pianzaihuang, which saw a revenue drop of 11.93% and a net profit decline of 20.74% [3][4] Group 4: Other Notable Performers - Haiguang Information reported revenue of 9.49 billion yuan, a 54.65% increase, and a net profit of 1.961 billion yuan, up 28.56% [6] - Shijia Photon, a core supplier in the optical communication field, achieved revenue of 1.56 billion yuan, a 113.96% increase, and a net profit of 299 million yuan, up 727.74% [6]

Core Viewpoint - Cambricon Technologies reported impressive Q3 results, showcasing significant revenue and profit growth, driven by the expansion of AI applications and market presence [2][4]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Cambricon achieved revenue of 4.607 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2386.38% [2][4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.605 billion yuan, compared to a loss of 72.5 million yuan in the same period last year [2][4]. - In Q3 alone, revenue reached 1.727 billion yuan, up 1332.52% year-on-year, with a net profit of 567 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [4][5]. - Basic earnings per share for the reporting period were 1.35 yuan, with a year-to-date figure of 3.85 yuan per share [4]. Market Dynamics - The growth in revenue is attributed to the company's ongoing market expansion and support for AI application deployment, leading to substantial year-on-year revenue increases [4][5]. - Cambricon's products have gained widespread recognition across key industries such as telecommunications, finance, and the internet, reflecting the company's technological leadership [5]. Shareholder Activity - Notably, prominent investor Zhang Jianping increased his holdings by 320,000 shares in Q3, raising his stake from 1.46% to 1.53%, making him the fifth-largest shareholder [2][6]. - Zhang Jianping's investment in Cambricon has seen significant returns, with the stock price increasing over 120% during the third quarter [6]. Industry Position - Cambricon is recognized as one of the few companies that comprehensively master the core technologies of intelligent chips and their foundational software, establishing a competitive edge in the industry [5]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand for AI computing power, with expectations of continued order growth and performance improvement [5].