Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [3][11]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve an EPS of 1.29 yuan and 1.34 yuan for 2025 and 2026 respectively, with a target price set at 25.78 yuan based on a 20X PE for 2025 [3][11]. - The company aims to leverage strategic opportunities in Beijing to enhance its core competitiveness, focusing on the renovation and upgrade of the China World Trade Center area [11]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company reported a revenue of 39.12 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.05% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 12.62 billion yuan, an increase of 0.25% [11][13]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.1 yuan per share (including tax) for 2024, resulting in a payout ratio of 88% and a dividend yield of 4.88% based on the closing price on April 23, 2025 [11]. - The revenue from property leasing and management for 2024 was 33.86 billion yuan, a marginal increase of 0.04%, with a gross margin of 66.04%, slightly down by 0.37 percentage points from 2023 [11][12]. Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the company's rental income from various segments was as follows: office buildings (15.11 billion yuan), shopping malls (12.86 billion yuan), apartments (1.87 billion yuan), hotels (5.26 billion yuan), and others (4.02 billion yuan) [11]. - The average rental rates for 2024 were 639 yuan/sqm/month for office buildings (up 1 yuan), 1309 yuan/sqm/month for shopping malls (up 30 yuan), and 367 yuan/sqm/month for apartments (down 3 yuan) [11]. Market Data - The company's total market capitalization is 22.785 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 1,007 million shares [6]. - The stock price has fluctuated between 20.79 and 27.59 yuan over the past 52 weeks [6]. Financial Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 40.36 billion yuan for 2025, with a slight increase in net profit to 12.98 billion yuan [5][12]. - The projected net profit margin for 2025 is expected to be around 32.2% [12]. Key Financial Ratios - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 12.9% for 2025, with a net asset return rate of 12.8% for 2027 [5][12]. - The company maintains a net debt ratio of -30%, indicating a strong financial position [7].

Core Viewpoint - The commercial real estate industry in 2024 faces a dual challenge, with sales-driven developers experiencing significant profit declines and asset impairments, while operation-oriented companies see stable rental growth and improved financial structures [1] Group 1: Profit Divergence and Cash Flow - The financial reports of commercial real estate in 2024 show a stark contrast, with some companies facing substantial losses while others maintain profitability through consistent rental income [2][3] - Sales-driven companies like Vanke and Baolong are struggling, with Vanke reporting a net loss of 49.4 billion yuan, marking its first significant loss since listing, and Baolong's loss expanding to 5.5 billion yuan [3] - In contrast, companies like China Resources Land and Longfor Group are maintaining profitability, with China Resources Land achieving a net profit of 25.42 billion yuan, despite an 8.5% year-on-year decline [3] Group 2: Rental Income and EBITDA - Rental income has become a critical cash flow source, with China Resources Land reporting rental income of 23.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.4% [4] - EBITDA is emerging as a new valuation anchor, with Longfor Group's operating cash flow exceeding 6 billion yuan, indicating strong operational stability [5][6] - Companies like Baolong and New Town Holdings show weaker EBITDA coverage, relying on asset disposals or financing to sustain operations [5] Group 3: Financial Structure and Risk Resistance - The net debt ratio has become a key indicator of a company's ability to withstand risks, with companies like Swire Properties maintaining a low net debt ratio of 4.4% [8] - A cash-to-short-debt ratio above 1.2x indicates a strong ability to cover short-term liabilities, while ratios below 0.8x may lead to credit rating changes [11] - Companies with a net debt ratio above 70% face high risks and may rely on asset sales for survival [8] Group 4: Strategic Models and Organizational Capability - The industry is witnessing a shift from project-based thinking to systematic capabilities, with companies needing to establish replicable cash flow models to enhance future valuations [23][30] - Three strategic models are emerging: long-term operational, mixed development and holding, and transitioning from heavy to light asset structures [24] - Companies like Swire and Hang Lung are exemplifying pure operational strategies, while others like Vanke and Baolong are struggling to find a clear path in their transitions [25][27] Group 5: Valuation Logic and Market Perception - The valuation logic in commercial real estate is shifting from land appreciation expectations to the sustainability of cash flows, with investors focusing on the ability to generate predictable cash [31][35] - Shopping centers are becoming the few assets still attracting positive valuation expectations, with China Resources Land's shopping center rental income reaching 19.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.4% [32] - The ability to securitize rental income is becoming crucial for future valuations, with companies needing to demonstrate clear cash flow structures and exit mechanisms [35][36] Group 6: Future Outlook and Recommendations - The future of companies in the commercial real estate sector will depend on their ability to convert properties into predictable cash flows and establish robust organizational capabilities [45][46] - Companies are advised to shift focus from project-centric strategies to developing standardized cash flow and asset securitization models [43] - Investors should prioritize evaluating EBITDA, rental recovery cycles, and interest coverage capabilities over traditional metrics like sales and profit margins [43]

中国国际贸易中心股份有限公司 2024 年年度股东大会 会议文件 （会议召开时间：2025 年 4 月 28 日） 1 中国国际贸易中心股份有限公司 2024 年年度股东大会议案及文件目录 其他文件：李朝鲜先生、张祖同先生、张学兵先生及梁伟立先生的"独立 董事 2024 年度述职报告" 2 一、 审议公司 2024 年度董事会工作报告 二、 审议公司 2024 年度财务决算 三、 审议公司 2024 年年度利润分配方案 四、 审议公司 2024 年年度报告 五、 审议公司董事长及副董事长 2025 年度薪酬计划的议案 六、 审议续聘会计师事务所的议案 七、 审议公司 2024 年度监事会工作报告 议案一 公司 2024 年度董事会工作报告 公司 2024 年度董事会工作报告经 2025 年 3 月 28 日召开的公司九届十三次 董事会会议审议通过，并于 2025 年 4 月 1 日在上海证券交易所网站 （www.sse.com.cn）披露，敬请查阅。 3 议案二 公司 2024 年度财务决算 公司 2024 年度财务报表及其附注经 2025 年 3 月 28 日召开的公司九届十三 次董事会会议审议通过，并于 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market indices have collectively risen, driven by multiple favorable factors [1] - The "Zhong" stocks, particularly those with "Zhong" in their names, have seen significant gains, with several stocks reaching their daily limit [1] Key Stock Performances - Zhongcang Co. (600787) opened strongly and reached the daily limit within 20 minutes, closing at a 10.07% increase [2] - Zhongfangbiao (873122) surged by 22.24%, while Zhongliang Kegong (301058) increased by 20.04% [2] - Other notable performers include Zhongtie Zhuangpei (300374) with an 11.37% rise, and China Tonghao (688009) with a 10.04% increase [2][3] Sector Analysis - The "Zhong" stocks have shown robust performance, with many stocks in this category experiencing gains of over 5% [1][2] - The retail sector has also attracted significant capital inflow, with net inflows exceeding 1 billion yuan in various segments, including community group buying and unified market [9] - The banking sector has seen a rebound, with several banks, including Pudong Development Bank, rising over 5% [11][12] ETF Activity - The trading volume for broad-based ETFs has continued to increase, with the CSI 300 ETF (510300) exceeding 12.1 billion yuan in trading volume [16] - Other ETFs, such as the CSI 500 ETF (510500), also reported significant trading volumes, indicating strong investor interest [16]

Core Viewpoint - China International Trade reported a stable performance in 2024 with a slight decrease in revenue and a modest increase in net profit, indicating resilience in its operations despite market challenges [1][2]. Revenue and Profit Summary - The company achieved a revenue of 3.912 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 1.05% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.262 billion yuan, showing a year-over-year increase of 0.25% [1]. Rental Income and Cost Management - Total rental income remained stable at 2.88 billion yuan, with a year-over-year decrease of 1.14% [1]. - Breakdown of rental income by property type: - Office buildings: 1.48 billion yuan (yoy -3.3%) - Shopping malls: 1.22 billion yuan (yoy +1.0%) - Apartments: 190 million yuan (yoy +2.2%) [1]. - The company maintained a gross profit margin of 58.14%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points year-over-year, contributing to the slight rise in net profit [1]. Rental Rates and Occupancy - Rental rates and occupancy remained stable across different property types: - Office buildings: Average rent of 639 yuan/sqm/month (yoy +0.2%), occupancy rate of 93.1% (yoy -2.8pct) - Shopping malls: Average rent of 1,309 yuan/sqm/month (yoy +2.3%), occupancy rate of 96.5% (yoy -1.7pct) - Apartments: Average rent of 367 yuan/sqm/month (yoy -1.0%), occupancy rate of 88.9% (yoy +3.0pct) [2]. Dividend and Debt Structure - The company proposed a cash dividend of 11.00 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 1.108 billion yuan, resulting in a high dividend payout ratio of 88% [2]. - The total borrowings decreased to 1.09 billion yuan, a year-over-year reduction of 31.1%, with the debt-to-asset ratio declining to 21.6% [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 4.0 billion yuan, 4.06 billion yuan, and 4.12 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with net profits of 1.3 billion yuan, 1.33 billion yuan, and 1.35 billion yuan respectively [3]. - Corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected at 17.9x, 17.5x, and 17.1x for the same period [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated stable operational performance with a high dividend payout ratio, proposing a cash dividend of 11 CNY per 10 shares, which accounts for 88% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [6][8] - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at 39.12 billion CNY, a slight decrease of 1.05% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 12.62 billion CNY, reflecting a growth of 0.25% [2][6] - The company’s property leasing and management segment generated revenue of 33.9 billion CNY, with a gross margin of 66.0%, while the hotel operations segment saw a revenue decline of 7.6% to 5.3 billion CNY [6][8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecast: - 2024A: Revenue of 39.12 billion CNY, net profit of 12.63 billion CNY - 2025E: Revenue of 40.63 billion CNY, net profit of 12.96 billion CNY - 2026E: Revenue of 41.80 billion CNY, net profit of 13.27 billion CNY - 2027E: Revenue of 42.63 billion CNY, net profit of 13.54 billion CNY [2][10] - Earnings Per Share (EPS) is projected to increase from 1.25 CNY in 2024 to 1.34 CNY in 2027 [2][10] - Return on Equity (ROE) is expected to decline from 13.08% in 2024 to 11.98% in 2027 [2][10] Business Segment Performance - Property Leasing and Management: - Revenue growth forecasted at 4% in 2025, 3% in 2026, and 2% in 2027 [7] - Average rental rates for office space increased by 0.2% to 639 CNY per square meter per month [6] - Hotel Operations: - Revenue expected to recover with a growth of 3% in 2025 and 2% in subsequent years [7][8] Cost Management and Financial Health - The company has effectively controlled costs, with total expense ratios decreasing from 6.3% to 5.8% [6] - The asset-liability ratio has shown a downward trend, decreasing to 21.6% by year-end 2024 [6][10] - The company’s cash flow remains robust, with operating cash flow net amounting to 18.0 billion CNY in 2024 [6][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated stable operational performance with a high dividend payout ratio, proposing a cash dividend of 11 yuan per 10 shares, which accounts for 88% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [6][8] - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at 39.12 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.05% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 12.62 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 0.25% [2][6] - The property leasing and management segment generated revenue of 33.9 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 66.0%, while the hotel operations segment saw a revenue decline of 7.6% to 5.3 billion yuan [6][8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecast: - 2024A: Revenue of 39.12 billion yuan, net profit of 12.63 billion yuan - 2025E: Revenue of 40.63 billion yuan, net profit of 12.96 billion yuan - 2026E: Revenue of 41.80 billion yuan, net profit of 13.27 billion yuan - 2027E: Revenue of 42.63 billion yuan, net profit of 13.54 billion yuan [2][10] - Earnings Per Share (EPS) is projected to increase from 1.25 yuan in 2024 to 1.34 yuan in 2027 [2][10] - Return on Equity (ROE) is expected to decline from 13.08% in 2024 to 11.98% in 2027 [2][10] Business Segment Performance - Property Leasing and Management: - Revenue growth forecasted at 4% in 2025, 3% in 2026, and 2% in 2027 [7] - Average rental rates for office space increased by 0.2% to 639 yuan per square meter per month [6] - Hotel Operations: - Revenue expected to recover with a growth of 3% in 2025 and 2% in subsequent years [7][8] Cost Management and Financial Health - The company has effectively controlled costs, reducing the total expense ratio from 6.3% to 5.8% [6] - The asset-liability ratio decreased to 21.6% by year-end, indicating improved financial stability [6][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][13]. Core Insights - For the fiscal year ending March 31, 2024, the company reported a revenue of 3.912 billion RMB, a slight decrease of 1.05% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.262 billion RMB, reflecting a modest increase of 0.25% [2][10]. - The company experienced a slight decline in rental income, with total rental revenue at 2.88 billion RMB, down 1.14% year-on-year. However, cost control measures led to an improvement in profit margins, with gross margin increasing by 0.13 percentage points to 58.14% and net margin rising by 0.43 percentage points to 32.30% [3][4]. - The average occupancy rates for different property types showed mixed results, with office occupancy at 93.1%, shopping mall occupancy at 96.5%, and apartment occupancy at 88.9%. Rental prices for offices and shopping malls increased year-on-year, while apartment rents remained stable [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 39.12 billion RMB in 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 1.05%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 12.62 billion RMB, showing a slight increase of 0.25% [2][10]. - The average rental income across different segments was reported as follows: office rental income at 1.48 billion RMB (down 3.3%), shopping mall income at 1.22 billion RMB (up 1.0%), and apartment income at 190 million RMB (up 2.2%) [3]. Profitability Metrics - The company's gross margin improved to 58.14%, and the net margin increased to 32.30%, attributed to cost-saving measures in depreciation, employee costs, and maintenance [3][4]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 11.00 RMB per 10 shares, totaling 1.108 billion RMB, with a payout ratio of 88% and a dividend yield of 4.78% based on the closing price as of March 31, 2024 [4]. Future Projections - The profit forecast for the company has been slightly adjusted, with expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 projected at 1.28 billion RMB, 1.30 billion RMB, and 1.31 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 1.4%, 1.3%, and 1.0% [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.10 yuan per share (including tax) based on its total share capital as of the equity distribution registration date, with a total of 1,007,282,534 shares outstanding as of December 31, 2024 [1][2]. Profit Distribution Plan - The profit distribution plan involves a cash dividend of 11.00 yuan for every 10 shares held, resulting in a total cash dividend of approximately 1,309,467,294 yuan for the previous year [2]. - The company's undistributed profits as of December 31, 2024, amount to 6,185,261,337 yuan [1]. - The cash dividend payout ratio for ordinary shareholders is 88% of the net profit [1]. Decision-Making Process - The company's board of directors approved the profit distribution plan during the 13th meeting of the 9th board on March 28, 2025, with 12 votes in favor [3]. - The supervisory board also approved the plan with 3 votes in favor and no opposition [3]. Compliance with Regulations - The profit distribution plan does not trigger any risk warning scenarios as per the Shanghai Stock Exchange listing rules [2][3].

Core Points - The company held its ninth supervisory board meeting on March 28, 2025, where all three supervisors attended, including one via video conference [1] - The meeting approved the 2024 supervisory board work report, financial settlement, profit distribution plan, internal control evaluation report, and the annual report and its summary, all with unanimous votes [1][2] Group 1 - The supervisory board confirmed that the preparation and review procedures for the 2024 annual report complied with legal and regulatory requirements [2] - The information contained in the 2024 annual report accurately reflects the company's operational management and financial status [2] - No violations of confidentiality regulations were found among those involved in the preparation and review of the 2024 annual report [2]