Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. (600026) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 19% [1] - The oil transportation market is anticipated to improve in the medium term, with attention to variables such as sanctions and production increases [7] Financial Performance Summary - **2024 Financial Results**: - Revenue: 23.2 billion CNY, up 2% year-on-year - Net Profit: 4.04 billion CNY, up 19.4% year-on-year - Non-recurring Net Profit: 3.98 billion CNY, down 3.8% year-on-year - Q4 Revenue: 6.1 billion CNY, down 1.6% year-on-year - Q4 Net Profit: 620 million CNY, returning to profit [1][2] - **Business Segment Performance**: - Foreign trade oil transportation: Gross profit of 3.59 billion CNY, down 13.6% - Domestic trade oil transportation: Gross profit of 1.48 billion CNY, down 0.9%, with a gross margin of 25% - LNG business: Contributed a net profit of 810 million CNY, up 2.7% - LPG and chemical business: Gross profit of 52 million CNY and 53 million CNY, down 8.7% and up 47.9% respectively [1][2] Future Financial Projections - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2025E: 26.03 billion CNY, growth of 12% - 2026E: 27.77 billion CNY, growth of 6.7% - 2027E: 29.67 billion CNY, growth of 6.8% [3] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2025E: 5.04 billion CNY, growth of 24.9% - 2026E: 6.03 billion CNY, growth of 19.7% - 2027E: 6.89 billion CNY, growth of 14.2% [3] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2025E: 1.06 CNY - 2026E: 1.26 CNY - 2027E: 1.44 CNY [3] Valuation - The target price for the stock is set at 13.8 CNY, with a current price of 11.27 CNY, indicating a potential upside of 22% [3][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights a strong growth trajectory in revenue and net profit, with significant year-on-year increases projected for the coming years [4][5] - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 25,911 million RMB in 2025, reflecting an 11.48% growth compared to 2024 [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to reach 5,035 million RMB in 2025, representing a 24.73% increase from the previous year [5] Financial Summary - The closing price of the company's stock is 11.27 RMB, with a market capitalization of 53,766.65 million RMB [3] - The company has a total share capital of 4,770.78 million shares and a debt-to-asset ratio of 51.90% [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.06 RMB in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.68 [5][7] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 12.95% in 2025, indicating strong profitability [5][7] - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve to 30.65% by 2025, with a net profit margin of 21.11% [7]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [6][13]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a significant improvement in its profitability, with a projected net profit of 50.26 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24.5% [4][5]. - The company is positioned as a leader in global oil transportation and a key player in China's LNG transportation market, benefiting from a favorable supply-demand balance in the oil shipping sector [4][5]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 232.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, with a gross profit of 63.3 billion yuan, down 4.3% from the previous year [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 40.4 billion yuan, up 19.4% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 17.4% [1][5]. Business Segment Performance - The foreign trade oil transportation segment generated a revenue of 145.74 billion yuan in 2024, up 4.1% year-on-year, while the gross profit decreased by 13.5% [2]. - The domestic oil transportation segment saw a revenue of 59.09 billion yuan, down 4.8% year-on-year, but the gross profit margin improved by 1.0 percentage points to 25.0% [2]. - The LNG transportation segment contributed a net profit of 8.11 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.66% [2]. Dividend Policy - The company declared a dividend payout ratio of 50.82% for 2024, with an annual dividend of 0.43 yuan per share, an increase of 0.08 yuan per share compared to 2023 [2]. Capacity and Fleet Overview - As of December 31, 2024, the company holds the world's largest oil tanker fleet with 159 vessels totaling 23.74 million deadweight tons [3]. - The LNG fleet consists of 50 operational vessels with a total capacity of 842,000 cubic meters, and there are 37 LNG vessels under construction [3]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 260 billion yuan in 2025, 269 billion yuan in 2026, and 283 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 50.26 billion yuan, 54.16 billion yuan, and 57.69 billion yuan respectively [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [6][13]. Core Views - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.04 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.4%. The report is optimistic about the improvement in the oil transportation supply-demand structure, which is expected to enhance the company's performance [1][4]. - The company is recognized as a global leader in oil transportation and a key player in China's LNG transportation sector, with significant competitive advantages in the oil and gas import transportation market [4]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 23.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, with a gross profit of 6.33 billion yuan, down 4.3% year-on-year, resulting in a gross margin of 27.2% [1]. - The company’s net profit margin for 2024 was 17.4%, with a net profit of 4.04 billion yuan, while the net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring items was 3.98 billion yuan, down 3.8% year-on-year [1][5]. Business Segment Performance - The foreign trade oil transportation segment generated revenue of 14.57 billion yuan in 2024, up 4.1% year-on-year, but the gross profit decreased by 13.5% to 3.59 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 24.6% [2]. - The domestic oil transportation segment saw a revenue decline of 4.8% to 5.91 billion yuan, with a gross profit of 1.48 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase in gross margin to 25.0% [2]. - The LNG transportation segment contributed a net profit of 0.81 billion yuan, up 2.66% year-on-year [2]. Dividend Policy - The company declared a dividend payout ratio of 50.82% for 2024, with an annual dividend of 0.43 yuan per share, an increase of 0.08 yuan per share compared to 2023. This results in a dividend yield of 3.8% based on the stock price of 11.41 yuan as of March 27, 2025 [2]. Capacity and Fleet - As of December 31, 2024, the company had the world's largest oil tanker fleet, comprising 159 vessels with a total deadweight tonnage of 23.74 million tons. Additionally, there are 12 oil tankers under construction [3]. - The LNG fleet includes 50 operational vessels with a total capacity of 8.42 million cubic meters, and 37 LNG vessels are under construction [3]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 26 billion yuan in 2025, 26.85 billion yuan in 2026, and 28.28 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 11.8%, 3.3%, and 5.3% respectively [5][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 5.03 billion yuan in 2025, 5.42 billion yuan in 2026, and 5.77 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 24.5%, 7.8%, and 6.5% respectively [5][10].

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 23.24 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, with a gross profit of 6.33 billion yuan, down 4.3% year-on-year, resulting in a gross margin of 27.2% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 4.04 billion yuan, up 19.4% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 17.4% [1] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.43 yuan per share for 2024, representing a dividend payout ratio of 50.82% and a dividend yield of 3.8% based on the stock price of 11.41 yuan [3] Revenue Breakdown - In the foreign trade oil transportation segment, the company achieved a revenue of 14.574 billion yuan, an increase of 4.1% year-on-year, but the gross profit decreased by 13.5% to 3.586 billion yuan, resulting in a gross margin of 24.6% [2] - The domestic oil transportation segment reported a revenue of 5.909 billion yuan, a decline of 4.8% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 1.475 billion yuan, down 0.9%, and a gross margin of 25.0% [2] - The LNG transportation segment contributed a net profit of 0.811 billion yuan, an increase of 2.66% year-on-year [3] - The LPG and chemical transportation segments reported revenues of 0.206 billion yuan and 0.314 billion yuan, respectively, with declines of 18.6% and 19.1% year-on-year [3] Fleet Capacity - As of December 31, 2024, the company had the largest oil tanker fleet globally, with 159 vessels totaling 23.74 million deadweight tons, and 12 additional vessels under construction [4] - The LNG fleet consists of 50 operational vessels with a total capacity of 8.42 million cubic meters, and 37 vessels under construction [4] - The LPG fleet includes 11 vessels with a capacity of 42,600 cubic meters, and 2 vessels under construction [4] - The chemical transportation fleet comprises 8 vessels with a total capacity of 72,900 deadweight tons, with 1 vessel under construction [4] Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 26 billion yuan, 26.9 billion yuan, and 28.3 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.8%, 3.3%, and 5.3% respectively [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 5.026 billion yuan, 5.416 billion yuan, and 5.769 billion yuan for the same period [5] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 11, 10, and 9 for the years 2025 to 2027 [5]

Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 23.244 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.25% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.037 billion yuan, up 19.37% year-on-year [1] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 6.1 billion yuan, a 9.8% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 621 million yuan, a significant increase of 271.1% year-on-year [1] Operational Metrics - The company transported 180 million tons in 2024, a 3.8% increase year-on-year, with a turnover of 604 billion ton-miles, up 13.6% year-on-year [1] - Average daily earnings for the VLCC TD3C route (Middle East to China) were approximately $34,900, a decrease of 3% year-on-year, while the LR2 TC1 route (Middle East to Japan) averaged $40,400 per day, remaining at historical highs [1] - The gross profit from foreign trade oil transportation was 3.586 billion yuan, down 13.5% year-on-year, while domestic oil transportation gross profit was 1.475 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.9% [1] - The LNG transportation business contributed a net profit of 811 million yuan, an increase of 2.66% year-on-year [1] Profitability and Cost Structure - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 27.24%, a decrease of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the addition of new VLCC capacity and rising charter rates [2] - The operating expense ratio improved slightly, with a decrease of 0.15 percentage points year-on-year; selling expenses were 0.36% (+0.02 percentage points), management expenses were 4.63% (+0.30 percentage points), and financial expenses were 4.63% (-0.60 percentage points) [2] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 17.12%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year, as there were no asset impairment losses compared to 10 billion yuan in 2023 [2] Industry Outlook - The oil transportation industry is expected to see improved supply-demand fundamentals, with a projected 0.7% increase in crude oil ton-mile demand and a 0.1% increase in refined oil ton-mile demand in 2025 [3] - Total deadweight tonnage scheduled for delivery in 2025 is expected to increase by 160%, primarily in LR2 and smaller oil tankers, with only 5 VLCCs expected to be delivered [3] - The aging fleet and ongoing sanctions on black oil transportation in Western countries are expected to enhance the potential for scrapping older vessels, further optimizing supply-demand dynamics [3] - The company's net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 5.54 billion yuan and 6.05 billion yuan, respectively, with a new forecast of 6.22 billion yuan for 2027 [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4]. Core Views - The company reported weak performance in 2024, with revenue of 23.244 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.22%, and a net profit of approximately 4.037 billion yuan, up 20.47% year-on-year. However, the net profit excluding non-recurring items decreased by 3.77% to 3.979 billion yuan [10][4]. - The foreign trade oil transportation business volume increased by 14.4% year-on-year, but gross profit fell by 13.5% to 3.59 billion yuan, primarily due to weak global economic performance and a shift towards lower-cost black market oil [10][14]. - The domestic oil and LNG segments showed stable growth, with domestic oil transportation turnover increasing by 4.2% and LNG contributing a net profit of 0.81 billion yuan, up 2.7% year-on-year [2][15]. - The acquisition of LPG and chemical transportation businesses is expected to broaden the company's operational scope and enhance energy logistics [2][15]. - Looking ahead to 2025, the supply-demand dynamics are expected to improve, with potential upward elasticity in freight rates due to anticipated OPEC+ production increases and a return of black market demand to compliant markets [2][15]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 23.244 billion yuan, a 5.22% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of approximately 4.037 billion yuan, reflecting a 20.47% increase year-on-year. However, the net profit excluding non-recurring items decreased by 3.77% to 3.979 billion yuan [10][4]. - The gross profit from foreign trade oil transportation was 3.59 billion yuan, down 13.5% year-on-year, with specific contributions from crude oil, refined oil, and chartering showing significant variances [14][10]. Business Segments - Domestic oil transportation (crude + refined oil) turnover grew by 4.2% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 1.48 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.9% [2][15]. - The LNG business contributed a net profit of 0.81 billion yuan, showing a stable performance with a year-on-year growth of 2.7% [2][15]. - The acquisition of LPG and chemical transportation businesses is expected to enhance the company's operational capabilities and logistics efficiency [2][15]. Future Outlook - The supply-demand situation is projected to improve in 2025, with expectations of increased freight rates due to OPEC+ production increases and a potential return of black market oil demand to compliant markets [2][15]. - The company maintains a strong confidence in the global oil transportation market, anticipating a tightening supply side and potential upward elasticity in freight rates [2][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][8] Core Views - The company achieved a record net profit of approximately 4.04 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.47% [8] - The company continues to offer a high dividend payout ratio of 50.82%, with a cash dividend of 2.1 yuan per 10 shares for the 2024 fiscal year [8] - The demand for VLCC vessels is expected to improve in the medium term, driven by stable demand from China and increased production from oil-producing countries [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 23.24 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.22% [8] - The company's net profit for 2025 is forecasted to be 4.38 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 8.6% [7] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.92 yuan [7] - The gross profit margin is expected to be 28.3% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 11.4% [7] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 11.41 yuan, with a market capitalization of 39.65 billion yuan [2] - The company has a price-to-net asset value (P/NAV) of 0.95, which is considered reasonable compared to peers [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company is a global leader in oil transportation, with a positive supply-demand outlook and undervalued asset value [1] - The foreign trade oil transportation business is actively expanding into Western markets, maintaining diversified sources of cargo [2] - The LNG transportation business is experiencing steady growth [3] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 232.44 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.25%, with Q4 revenue of 61.00 billion, down 1.59% year-on-year [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 was 40.37 billion, up 19.37% year-on-year, with Q4 net profit of 6.21 billion, turning from loss to profit [4] - The company's operating volume (excluding time charter) reached 18 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, with a transportation turnover of 604 billion ton-miles, up 13.6% year-on-year [4] - The company maintained the world's largest fleet of oil tankers, with 159 owned tankers totaling 23.74 million deadweight tons [4] - The foreign trade oil transportation business generated revenue of 145.74 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%, but gross profit decreased by 13.5% [4] - The LNG transportation business achieved revenue of 22.29 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.4%, with gross profit of 10.76 billion, up 25.23% [4] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 265.50 billion, 281.14 billion, and 288.00 billion from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.22%, 5.89%, and 2.44% respectively [7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 46.84 billion, 51.88 billion, and 54.77 billion for the same period, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.05%, 10.75%, and 5.56% respectively [7] - The corresponding EPS for 2025 is expected to be 0.98, with a P/E ratio of 11.64 [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company has shown a positive trend in its oil transportation business, actively expanding into Western markets and maintaining a diversified source of cargo [2] - The LNG transportation business has demonstrated steady growth [3] - The company reported a total revenue of 232.44 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.25%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company reached 40.37 billion yuan, up 19.37% year-on-year [4] - The company maintained the world's largest fleet of oil tankers, with 159 owned vessels totaling 23.74 million deadweight tons [4] - The foreign trade oil transportation business generated revenue of 145.74 billion yuan in 2024, a 4.1% increase year-on-year, despite a 13.5% decline in gross profit [4] - The LNG transportation business achieved revenue of 22.29 billion yuan, a 22.4% increase year-on-year, with a gross profit of 10.76 billion yuan, up 25.23% [4] Financial Summary - The company expects to achieve revenues of 265.50 billion yuan, 281.14 billion yuan, and 288.00 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 46.84 billion yuan, 51.88 billion yuan, and 54.77 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 16.05%, 10.75%, and 5.56% respectively [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.98 yuan, 1.09 yuan, and 1.15 yuan for 2025 to 2027, with the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio expected to be 11.64, 10.51, and 9.96 [7] - The company reported a gross profit margin of 27.2% for 2024, with a return on equity (ROE) of 11.3% [6]