Group 1 - The overall performance of the US dollar is weak, with the dollar index falling to around 99, leading to decreased investor confidence in dollar assets due to regional tensions [1] - Key variables affecting oil prices in 2026 include OPEC+ production cuts, macroeconomic policy shifts such as potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and escalating regional political risks that could trigger short-term oil price spikes [1] - The projected core price range for Brent crude oil in 2026 is $55-75 per barrel, while WTI is expected to be $50-70 per barrel, with volatility expected to narrow compared to 2025 [1] Group 2 - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index (399439) include major companies such as China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC, collectively accounting for 67.11% of the index [2] - The Penghua Oil ETF (159697) closely tracks the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index, reflecting the price changes of listed companies in the oil and gas sector on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The shipping and port sector experienced a rise of 1.07% on January 19, with Xiamen Port leading the gains, while the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4114.0, up 0.29% [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Xiamen Port (000905) closed at 13.60, up 5.59% with a trading volume of 510,700 shares and a transaction value of 690 million [1]. - COSCO Shipping Energy (600026) closed at 14.57, up 3.85% with a trading volume of 506,900 shares and a transaction value of 737 million [1]. - Strait Holdings (002320) closed at 11.08, up 3.84% with a trading volume of 610,700 shares and a transaction value of 673 million [1]. - China Merchants South Oil (601975) closed at 3.33, up 2.78% with a trading volume of 1,418,400 shares and a transaction value of 469 million [1]. - Haitong Development (603162) closed at 12.60, up 2.69% with a trading volume of 139,900 shares and a transaction value of 177 million [1]. Group 2: Capital Flow - The shipping and port sector saw a net inflow of 176 million from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 1.08 billion [2]. - Major stocks like COSCO Shipping Energy and Strait Holdings attracted significant net inflows of 78.63 million and 58.81 million respectively from institutional investors [3]. - Conversely, retail investors withdrew 38.70 million from COSCO Shipping Energy and 56.58 million from Strait Holdings, indicating a divergence in investor sentiment [3].

每经AI快讯，中远海能(01138.HK)再涨超5%，截至发稿，涨5.31%，报12.69港元，成交额1.4亿港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock of China Ocean Shipping Energy (01138) has risen over 5%, reaching HKD 12.69, with a trading volume of HKD 140 million, driven by rising oil prices and increased demand for VLCCs due to geopolitical tensions [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - According to Clarkson, oil prices have surged significantly as geopolitical tensions escalate, with VLCC Middle East route WS increasing for several consecutive days, now at 88, leading to TCE exceeding USD 60,000 per day [1] - The report from Zhongyin Securities indicates that tensions in Iran have caused a rapid increase in risk premiums for the Strait of Hormuz, with VLCC daily earnings doubling to USD 68,000 in just one week [1] Group 2: Supply Chain and Demand - The sharp decline in Venezuelan oil exports has compelled Chinese buyers to shift their sourcing to the Middle East and Brazil for heavy crude oil, resulting in increased demand for long-haul shipping [1] - The short-term support for tanker freight rates is attributed to this increased demand, while future trends will depend on whether sanctions are lifted [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. (中远海能) has risen over 5%, reaching HKD 12.69, driven by increasing oil prices and heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - According to Clarkson, oil prices have surged significantly due to escalating tensions, with VLCC Middle East route WS rising continuously, now at 88, leading to TCE exceeding USD 60,000 per day [1] - Zhongyin Securities reported that the risk premium in the Strait of Hormuz has rapidly increased due to the tense situation in Iran, with VLCC daily earnings doubling to USD 68,000 in just one week [1] Group 2: Supply Chain Impacts - The sharp decline in Venezuelan oil exports has compelled Chinese buyers to shift their procurement towards heavy crude oil from the Middle East and Brazil, resulting in increased demand for long-haul shipping [1] - The short-term support for tanker freight rates is evident, but future trends will depend on whether sanctions are relaxed [1]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨运输 [Table_Title] 地缘性"需求意外"贯穿全年，重申油运推荐 ——交运周专题 2026W3 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 年初以来，VLCC 运价大幅反弹。货盘释放以及浮舱增加，供需紧张推动运价上涨。油运作为 典型的周期性行业，无论是从行业跟踪还是投资层面，更多关注行业周期变动的边际作用。展 望 2026 年，地缘波动带来的"需求意外"和全球原油增产下的补库周期将提振油运需求，打 消供给担忧。年初，美国对委内瑞拉实施打击并接管其原油，意味着委内瑞拉原油出口合规化 阶段性兑现。当前，伊朗地缘波动加剧，同样饱含看涨期权。另外，在全球原油增产周期下， 下游或进入补库周期，提振油运需求，因此将打消供给担忧，重申推荐中远海能、招商轮船。 分析师及联系人 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Author] SFC：BQK468 SFC：BWN875 SAC：S0490512020001 SAC：S0490520020001 SAC：S0490519060002 SAC：S0490520 ...

格隆汇1月19日丨根据联交所最新权益披露资料显示，2026年1月12日，中远海能(01138.HK)获BlackRock, Inc.在场内以每股均价11.4548港元增持好仓3183.2 万股，涉资约3.65亿港元。 | 股份代號: | 01138 | | --- | --- | | 上市法國名稱: | 中遠海運能源運輸股份有限公司 - H | | 日期 (日 / 月 / 年): | 19/12/2025 - 19/01/2026 | 增持后，BlackRock, Inc.最新持好仓数目为7681.403万股，持好仓比例由3.47%上升至5.93%。 | 表格序號 | 大股東/董事/最高行政人員名 作出披露的 買入 / 賣出或涉及的 每股的平均價 | | | 持有權益的股份數目 佔已發行的 有關事件的日期 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 股份數目 | 原因 | | (請參閱上述 *註 有投票權股(日/月/年) * | | | | | | | 産 份自分比 | | | STATULAR CONSTITUTION CONSULTION CONSULTIO ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the transportation industry, indicating a positive outlook for specific sectors such as shipping and logistics [2]. Core Insights - The shipping sector is experiencing a significant increase in oil transportation rates due to heightened sanctions from the US and EU against Iran and Venezuela, leading to strong market sentiment among shipowners [6][17]. - The infrastructure sector is advised to focus on individual stock selections, particularly in stable cash flow assets like ports, which are currently undervalued [19]. - The aviation industry is expected to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics and lower fuel prices in 2026, marking a potential recovery year for profitability [25]. - The express delivery sector is projected to see a gradual improvement in competition and profitability, with a focus on major players like SF Express and Zhongtong Express [21]. Shipping Sector Summary - Oil transportation rates have surged significantly due to geopolitical tensions, with VLCC TD3C-TCE reaching $116,000 per day, a notable increase of 10.8% from the previous week [12][49]. - The dry bulk market is showing signs of seasonal decline, with the BDI index reporting a drop of 7.2% [16][48]. - Recommendations include focusing on oil tanker and dry bulk stocks such as COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy [17]. Infrastructure Sector Summary - Weekly data indicates a 17.3% increase in truck traffic volume, while rail freight has seen a 10.3% increase week-on-week [19][18]. - The report suggests investing in highway assets like Anhui Expressway, which are expected to provide stable returns [19]. Express Delivery Sector Summary - The express delivery industry saw a 13.7% year-on-year growth in business volume for 2025, with December showing a slowdown to 2.6% [20][21]. - Major companies are expected to benefit from operational adjustments, with SF Express projected to achieve faster profit growth in 2026 [21]. Aviation Sector Summary - The aviation sector is currently in a transitional phase, with passenger volumes showing a 3.6% year-on-year decline, but a potential recovery is anticipated in 2026 due to improved market conditions [25][22]. - The report emphasizes monitoring the impact of the Spring Festival travel season and geopolitical factors on oil prices [25]. Logistics Sector Summary - The logistics sector is experiencing stable air freight prices, with the TAC Shanghai outbound air freight price index remaining flat week-on-week [26]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring cross-border transport volumes and short-haul freight rates [26].

香港联交所最新数据显示，1月12日，贝莱德增持中远海能（600026）(01138)3183.1956万股，每股作价 11.4548港元，总金额约为3.65亿港元。增持后最新持股数目约为7681.40万股，最新持股比例为5.93%。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，香港联交所最新数据显示，1月12日，贝莱德增持中远海能(01138)3183.1956万股， 每股作价11.4548港元，总金额约为3.65亿港元。增持后最新持股数目约为7681.40万股，最新持股比例 为5.93%。 ...