消息面上，近期油运市场多空交织。由于对供应过剩的担忧日益加剧，OPEC+同意小幅提高12月份的 石油产量，并暂停明年第一季度的增产。据悉，原油运输受益于OPEC+增产周期，此外，有分析人士 指出，301措施暂停将有效减缓原油干散有效运力持续缩减风险。 国泰海通证券则表示，美国再次加码对俄制裁，VLCC TCE上冲至超12万美元高位。2025Q3油运公司 国际原油运输盈利同比明显增长，符合运价趋势，且国内三家油轮公司继续跑赢行业运价指数。预计油 轮2025Q4与全年盈利将创十年新高。我们看好油运2026年供需继续向好，油运有望迎来超级牛市。 智通财经APP获悉，中远海能(01138)现跌超5%，截至发稿，跌5.43%，报10.45港元，成交额4.53亿港 元。 ...

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年10月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中遠海運能源運輸股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年11月3日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | A | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 否 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 600026 | 說明 A股 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 3,474,776,395 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 3,474,776,395 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 694,444,444 | | | RMB | | 694,444,444 | | 本月底結存 | | | 4,169,220,839 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 4,169,220,83 ...

资料显示，中远海运能源运输股份有限公司位于上海市虹口区东大名路670号，成立日期1996年7月26 日，上市日期2002年5月23日，公司主营业务涉及从事国际和中国沿海原油及成品油运输、国际液化天 然气(LNG)运输。主营业务收入构成为：外贸原油44.88%，内贸原油13.64%，LNG运输10.69%，外贸 成品油9.88%，内贸成品油9.49%，外贸船舶出租8.06%，化学品运输1.37%，LPG运输1.21%，内贸船舶 出租0.54%，其他(补充)0.24%。 中远海能所属申万行业为：交通运输-航运港口-航运。所属概念板块包括：远洋运输、油气存储、中字 头、央企改革、中特估等。 截至9月30日，中远海能股东户数8.24万，较上期减少29.24%；人均流通股0股，较上期增加0.00%。 2025年1月-9月，中远海能实现营业收入171.08亿元，同比减少0.21%；归母净利润27.23亿元，同比减少 20.27%。 11月3日，中远海能盘中下跌2.00%，截至10:42，报13.22元/股，成交4.44亿元，换手率0.95%，总市值 722.50亿元。 分红方面，中远海能A股上市后累计派现144.62亿元 ...

Core Insights - The National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index (399439) has seen a strong increase of 1.54%, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as Lanstone Heavy Industry (603169) up 9.99%, Intercontinental Oil and Gas (600759) up 9.70%, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (600938) up 4.54% [1] - OPEC+ has agreed to maintain a production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in December, consistent with the planned increases for October and November, while pausing production increases from January to March due to expected seasonal demand slowdown [1] - Brent crude oil prices have surpassed $65 per barrel, marking the longest consecutive increase since late September, while WTI crude oil prices have crossed the $61 mark [1] Industry Analysis - Long-term, oil-producing countries prioritize "value over volume," and OPEC+ is expected to balance pressures that may lead to a new round of cooperation, supported by North American shale oil cost impacts [2] - The Brent crude oil price is anticipated to find long-term support around $60 per barrel before the influence of South American supply and global energy transition accelerates [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index, which includes major companies like China National Petroleum (601857) and Sinopec (600028), account for 65.09% of the index [2]

Core Insights - The foreign public funds have achieved significant excess returns due to proactive industry positioning and stable investment strategies, with some funds reporting returns exceeding 50% year-to-date [1][2] Group 1: Fund Performance - BlackRock Advanced Manufacturing Fund has a year-to-date return of 66.44%, with a heavy concentration in the manufacturing sector, accounting for 92.52% of its stock investments [2] - The top ten holdings of the BlackRock fund include companies like CATL and Hikvision, with notable stock price increases such as 176.76% for Zhongji Xuchuang [2] - The Robeco Resource Select Fund has achieved a year-to-date return of 79.00%, diversifying its investments across materials, mining, and energy sectors [2] Group 2: Market Outlook - Fund managers maintain a positive outlook for the fourth quarter, expecting low interest rates and ample liquidity to support the A-share market's medium to long-term performance [1][3] - Concerns about geopolitical factors and overseas policy rhythms may cause short-term disruptions, but the overall sentiment remains optimistic for quality technology and resource assets [3][5] - The managers of the BlackRock fund believe that the current low-growth macro environment will anchor a low-interest-rate scenario, pushing investors towards riskier assets with positive cash flows [4] Group 3: Strategic Adjustments - The funds have maintained relatively high positions while making flexible adjustments based on market changes, focusing on sectors like electronics and power equipment [3] - The Allianz China Select Fund has a year-to-date return of 54.48%, with significant holdings in manufacturing and healthcare, reflecting confidence in China's technological innovation [3] - The Robeco fund has strategically included upstream industries related to the current technology innovation cycle, aiming for future gains [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [12] Core Insights - The report identifies four key development focuses and investment opportunities for the transportation industry over the next five years, summarized as "Two Internals and Two Promotions": combating internal competition, driving domestic demand, promoting overseas expansion, and facilitating transformation [2][6][17] Summary by Sections Express Delivery - The ongoing effort to combat internal competition in the express delivery sector is expected to remain effective, positively impacting the entire e-commerce express delivery segment. Key recommendations include YTO Express, Shentong Express, Jitu Express, Zhongtong Express, and Yunda Express [2][6][17] Aviation - The implementation of paid staggered vacations is anticipated to improve the supply-demand dynamics in the aviation industry, aiding in reversing the current profitability downturn. Recommendations include A-share private airlines and the three major Hong Kong airlines [2][6][17] Overseas Expansion - The development of new growth poles through overseas expansion and the construction of the Western Land-Sea New Corridor is highlighted. This opens up profit margins for overseas enterprises, with continued recommendations for Jitu Express, Jiayou International, and Eastern Airlines Logistics [2][6][17] Green Transition - The report emphasizes the acceleration of green low-carbon transformation, marking the year as a significant one for green fuel investments. The focus is on promoting a green production and lifestyle, particularly in the transportation sector [2][6][17] Passenger Transport - Domestic passenger traffic has shown a 5% year-on-year increase, while international passenger traffic has risen by 20%. The domestic passenger load factor has improved by 2.2 percentage points year-on-year, and international load factors have increased by 5.6 percentage points [7][40] Maritime Transport - The average VLCC-TCE rate has surged by 44.1% to $114,000 per day, driven by increased demand from the Middle East. The SCFI index for foreign trade container shipping has risen by 10.5% to 1,551 points, indicating a favorable market environment [8][61][62] Logistics - The volume of express deliveries has increased by 9.9% year-on-year, with a stable demand for coal transportation. The report highlights the ongoing price adjustments in the express delivery sector, recommending investments in YTO Express, Shentong Express, Jitu Express, and Zhongtong Express [9][17]

Group 1: Metal Sector - Tianshan Aluminum's net profit forecast for 2025 is 47.71 billion CNY, with a PE ratio of 13.24[10] - Luoyang Molybdenum's net profit is projected to reach 194.40 billion CNY in 2025, with a PE ratio of 19.02[10] Group 2: Building Materials - Huaxin Cement's net profit for 2025 is estimated at 29.38 billion CNY, with a PE ratio of 13.83[10] - China National Materials' net profit is expected to grow to 19.36 billion CNY in 2025, with a PE ratio of 30.63[10] Group 3: Transportation - Eastern Airlines Logistics is projected to have a net profit of 26.46 billion CNY in 2025, with a PE ratio of 9.41[10] - COSCO Shipping Specialized Carriers' net profit is expected to be 19.77 billion CNY in 2025, with a PE ratio of 10.19[10] Group 4: Chemical Sector - Boryuan Chemical's net profit forecast for 2025 is 14.67 billion CNY, with a PE ratio of 17.19[10] - Yara International's net profit is projected to reach 21.09 billion CNY in 2025, with a PE ratio of 18.58[10] Group 5: Energy Sector - Guotou Power's net profit for 2025 is estimated at 69.48 billion CNY, with a PE ratio of 16.67[10] - Shouhua Gas is expected to turn around with a net profit of 0.42 billion CNY in 2025, after a loss in 2024[10]

Core Viewpoint - COSCO Shipping Energy's performance for the first three quarters of 2025 shows a decline in revenue and net profit, but the third quarter indicates signs of recovery due to non-recurring gains from asset sales [1][2]. Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 17.108 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.55%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.723 billion yuan, down 21.22%; and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 2.484 billion yuan, down 25.85% [1]. - In Q3 alone, revenue was 5.466 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.55%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 853 million yuan, an increase of 4.37%; and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 710 million yuan, down 3.00% [1]. Segment Performance - LNG transportation reported a net profit of 250 million yuan, down 11.03% year-on-year but up 13.64% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - Domestic oil tanker gross profit was 359 million yuan, down 15.33% year-on-year but up 9.12% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - International oil tanker gross profit was 495 million yuan, down 19.12% year-on-year and down 34.18% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - LPG and chemical transportation combined gross profit was 21 million yuan [2]. Operational Developments - The company’s wholly-owned subsidiary has leased six VLCCs, enhancing its capacity with a mix of fixed and variable rental agreements [3]. - The fixed rental for three vessels is approximately 19,090 USD/day, while the other three have a base rental of 19,090 USD/day with profit-sharing above a certain rate [3]. - Profitability estimates indicate that for VLCC TD3C-TCE rates of 40,000 to 100,000 USD/day, net profit per vessel could range from 0.9 to 5.4 million USD/day [3]. Market Outlook - Winter 2025 is expected to see strong and sustained freight rates, with early seasonal demand pushing rates close to 100,000 USD/day [4]. - The average freight rate for September-October has surpassed five-year records, with expectations for further increases in November [4]. - The long-term outlook for 2026-2027 is optimistic, with upward adjustments to profit forecasts based on strengthening fundamentals [4]. Profit Forecasts - The company maintains its 2025 net profit forecast at 4.462 billion yuan, while increasing the 2026-2027 forecasts to 6.075 billion and 7.230 billion yuan, respectively [4]. - The company's reset cost is approximately 55 billion yuan, with a P/NAV ratio of 1.34 times; future vessel price increases could raise reset costs significantly [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with a notable drop in the third quarter, while also planning to acquire a 100% stake in a liquefied gas transportation company to enhance operational efficiency and resource allocation [1][5]. Financial Performance - Revenue for the first three quarters was 17.11 billion yuan, down 2.5% year-on-year; Q3 revenue was 5.47 billion yuan, also down 2.5% year-on-year and 7.2% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters was 2.72 billion yuan, a decrease of 21.2% year-on-year; Q3 net profit was 850 million yuan, up 4.4% year-on-year but down 26.5% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - Non-recurring gains and losses in Q3 amounted to approximately 140 million yuan, primarily from the disposal of a non-current asset [1]. Business Segments - Domestic oil transportation revenue in Q3 was 1.36 billion yuan, down 7.1% year-on-year; gross margin was 26.5%, with a gross profit of 360 million yuan, down 15.1% year-on-year [2]. - LNG transportation revenue in Q3 was 620 million yuan, down 3.7% year-on-year; gross margin was 51.2%, with a gross profit of 320 million yuan, up 2.7% year-on-year [2]. - Foreign trade oil transportation revenue in Q3 was 3.31 billion yuan, down 1.7% year-on-year; gross margin was 14.9%, with a gross profit of 490 million yuan, down 19.3% year-on-year [2]. Market Dynamics - The oil transportation market experienced fluctuations in pricing, with VLCC rates rising unexpectedly from September due to increased demand from Atlantic exports and OPEC+ production [3][4]. - The average TCE index for VLCC, Suezmax, Aframax, and clean product tankers showed mixed trends, with VLCC rates increasing by 30% year-on-year [3][4]. Future Outlook - The company maintains a positive outlook for the VLCC market, driven by sustainable demand from increased production and sanctions affecting non-compliant trade [4]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 5.04 billion, 6.26 billion, and 7.13 billion yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of approximately 15, 12, and 10 [5].

油运淡季运价震荡，9 月起VLCC 超预期上行。7 月伊以冲突结束后油轮运价整体回落，9 月起VLCC 受益于大西洋出口货盘活跃、OPEC+持续增产且更多原油供应开始转向出口海运（此前夏季更多用于 沙特等中东本土消费）、伊俄制裁等因素，大船运价显著上涨、中小型油轮受到一定带动。 2）LNG 运输：Q3 营收6.2 亿，同比-3.7%、环比-0.3%；毛利率51.2%，同比+3.2、环比+1.4pts；毛利润 3.2 亿，同比+2.7%、环比+2%。 3）外贸油运：测算Q3 外贸营收33.1 亿，同比-1.7%、环比-11%；毛利率14.9%，同比-3.3、环 比-5.2pts；毛利4.9 亿，同比-19.3%、环比-34%。 其中：外贸原油/成品油/期租营收23.4/5.9/3.9 亿，同比+6.5%/+3.4%/-36%，环比-13%/+0.1%/-17%；毛 利率分别13.8%/22.4%/10.8%，同比+6.3/-8.8/-34.3pts，环比-2.5/-6.7/-21pts；毛利润分别3.2/1.3/0.4亿， 同比+96.8%/-25.8%/-84.7%，环比-26%/-23%/-72%。 公司公 ...