中远海能 摘要 中远海能 2025 年上半年归母净利润 18.69 亿元，同比下降 29%，但 二季度环比增长 64%，显示经营情况边际改善。外贸油运毛利同比下降， 但二季度环比增长；LNG 运输贡献利润同比增长。 公司积极更新船队，订购甲醇双燃料船和化学品船，预计 2027-2028 年交付，同时处置老旧船舶，并推进脱硫塔安装，提升船队环保性能。 中远海能 A 股定增项目获证监会批文，拟募资不超过 80 亿元，用于 VLCC、阿芙拉及 LNG 运输船建造，优化资产负债结构，中远海运集团 承诺认购 50%。 VLCC 运价受益于大西洋贸易活跃和中东出货集中，已达每日 5 万美元 水平。预计 OPEC+增产和季节性需求将支撑四季度运价，但需关注全 球石油供给增速超过需求增速的风险。 VLCC 供给端面临更新换代滞缓，老旧船舶占比高，新船交付量有限。 美国对伊朗石油制裁升级可能导致市场供给紧张，支撑行业基本面。 美国提高对印度输美商品关税，促使印度转向合规原油市场，增加合规 市场吨海里需求，利好 VLCC 和 Aframax 运输。公司已增加大西洋地 区大型成品油轮布局。 公司预计 2025 年下半年 VLCC ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company's revenue for 1H25 was 11.64 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.87 billion RMB, down 29.2% year-on-year. The decline in performance is primarily due to pressure on international oil transportation demand and a decrease in freight rates. However, there is an expectation for a seasonal demand boost in the second half of the year, which may lead to a recovery in freight rates [1][2] - The report suggests closely monitoring the US interest rate cut cycle and the recovery of domestic demand in China, which could benefit global oil transportation demand and support market freight rates [1] Summary by Sections Oil Transportation Business - The foreign trade oil transportation business generated revenue of 7.31 billion RMB in 1H25, down 5.7% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 1.29 billion RMB, a significant decline of 49.1%. The gross margin was 17.6%, down 15.1 percentage points year-on-year. The decline in freight rates was attributed to increased geopolitical uncertainties affecting production consumption and crude oil replenishment demand. The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) averaged a year-on-year decrease of 21.4% [2] - The domestic oil transportation segment reported revenue of 2.76 billion RMB, down 5.5% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 660 million RMB, down 6.8%. The gross margin was 24.0%, a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points. The LNG transportation business contributed a net profit of 420 million RMB, up 5.7% year-on-year, supported by the expansion of the LNG fleet and long-term contracts [3] Business Structure - The company has established a diversified business structure, operating in oil transportation, LNG, LPG, and chemical logistics. This diversification allows for resource sharing and strategic synergy among different business segments. As of June, the company ranked first globally in oil tanker fleet size and fourth in LNG fleet size [4] Profit Forecast and Target Price - The profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been revised downwards by 18%, 9%, and 9% to 4.43 billion RMB, 5.54 billion RMB, and 5.89 billion RMB, respectively. The target prices for A and H shares have been adjusted downwards by 18% and 3% to 13.20 RMB and 8.90 HKD, respectively, maintaining the "Buy" rating [5]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The oil shipping sector is currently undervalued, with companies showing resilience and dividend support, suggesting a focus on left-side opportunities and seasonal demand improvements [1] - Recent shipping price updates indicate a rebound in container shipping rates for the US routes, while European routes have declined. The SCFI index shows a week-on-week change of +17.0% for US routes and -11.2% for European routes [2] - The dry bulk shipping market has seen a strong recent increase in freight rates, with the BDI index up by 7.0% week-on-week, indicating potential demand improvements [2] Group 2: Company Focus - Companies such as COSCO Shipping Energy (中远海能), China Merchants Energy Shipping (招商轮船), and China Merchants Jinling (招商南油) are highlighted as key players to watch due to their potential for growth and dividend yields [1] - High-dividend private enterprises like Seaspan (海丰国际) and Zhonggu Logistics (中谷物流) are recommended for their short-term and long-term value propositions, particularly during the peak season in the second half of the year [1] - The small container ship supply in the Asian region is expected to remain tight, with only a 1-2% annual increase in supply over the next three years, while the proportion of older ships (over 25 years) is at 11.2% [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The average capacity of vessels in the Asian region is concentrated in larger global operators, with the top ten companies holding about 70% of the capacity share, indicating a high chartering ratio [3] - The deployment of vessels in Asia is primarily focused on larger ships (3,000 TEU and above), which creates a competitive landscape with companies like Seaspan focusing on smaller vessels for regional routes [3]

本周聚焦：亚洲区域内小型集装箱船舶供给紧张有望持续 小型船舶整体供给紧张，其中亚洲区域内运力占比约42%，近两年新增运力主要用于红海绕行支线配 套，亚洲区域内新增供给有限。根据Clarksons，未来三年小型集装箱船每年新增供给仅1-2%，而当前 25 岁以上老船占比已达到11.2%。尽管近期该行看到部分船东开始增加小型船舶订单，但多数新船要到 2028 年及之后交付，未来三年对于小船运力不会带来较大影响。根据Alphaliner数据，截至2025 年8 月，3,000TEU小船运力主要分布在亚洲区域内、中东/印度次半岛及欧洲区域内，分别占比42%、15% 和14%，较2023 年年底(红海绕行前)，3,000TEU以下小船运力增加8.5%，新增运力主要分布在中东及 印度次大陆、欧洲区域内航线，用于船东绕行红海做支线配套，而亚洲区域内小船运力仅增长2.2%。 亚洲区域运力主要集中在较大的全球运营班轮公司，且平均运力规模在3,000TEU及以上，租船比例较 高 智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，油运板块估值偏低，板块内公司上有弹性，下有股息支撑，建议 关注左侧机会，看好供需边际改善的旺季弹性，看好中远海能(0 ...

美银证券发布研报称，中远海能（600026）(01138)上半年营运表现大致符合预期，当中纯利胜预期， 主要来自一次性收益。该行上调2025至27年盈利预测，以反映OPEC+增产及美国制裁收紧为原油油轮 市场带来的顺风。该行维持"买入"评级，认为集团将成为油轮市场复苏的主要受益者，并认为当前估值 并未充分反映2025至26年的股东权益回报率(ROE)前景;H股目标价由7.5港元上调至7.9港元，中远海能A 股(600026.SH)目标价由13元上调至13.6元人民币。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，美银证券发布研报称，中远海能(01138)上半年营运表现大致符合预期，当中纯利胜 预期，主要来自一次性收益。该行上调2025至27年盈利预测，以反映OPEC+增产及美国制裁收紧为原 油油轮市场带来的顺风。该行维持"买入"评级，认为集团将成为油轮市场复苏的主要受益者，并认为当 前估值并未充分反映2025至26年的股东权益回报率(ROE)前景;H股目标价由7.5港元上调至7.9港元，中 远海能A股(600026.SH)目标价由13元上调至13.6元人民币。 ...

2025年上半年，该集团内贸油轮船队完成内贸油运运输收入人民币27.4亿元，同比减少5.5%；运输毛利 人民币6.7亿元，同比减少6.9%；毛利率24.4%，同比减少0.4个百分点。 浙商证券（601878）指出，作为中远海能业绩核心弹性的外贸油运板块，受国际市场波动影响，上半年 实现毛利12.89亿元，同比下降49.1%。该行认为这主要由于去年同期红海危机推高成品油轮运价基数， 以及今年新交付运力增加所致。然而，随着市场回暖，该板块Q2毛利环比强劲反弹40.3%，显示出极强 的向上弹性，印证了公司盈利能力的恢复。 中远海能（600026）(01138)绩后涨超5%，截至发稿，涨5.02%，报7.32港元，成交额6730.96万港元。 消息面上，8月29日，中远海能公布2025年中期业绩，营业额约为人民币115.73亿元，同比减少约 2.5%。归属于公司权益持有人的溢利约为人民币18.94亿元，同比下降约29.0%。每股收益39.71分。 2025年上半年，该集团外贸油轮船队完成外贸油运运输收入人民币72.9亿元，同比减少5.5%，二季度环 比一季度增长3.3%；运输毛利为人民币13.0亿元，同比减少48.9 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中远海能(01138)绩后涨超5%，截至发稿，涨5.02%，报7.32港元，成交额6730.96万 港元。 消息面上，8月29日，中远海能公布2025年中期业绩，营业额约为人民币115.73亿元，同比减少约 2.5%。归属于公司权益持有人的溢利约为人民币18.94亿元，同比下降约29.0%。每股收益39.71分。 2025年上半年，该集团外贸油轮船队完成外贸油运运输收入人民币72.9亿元，同比减少5.5%，二季度环 比一季度增长3.3%；运输毛利为人民币13.0亿元，同比减少48.9%，二季度环比一季度增长42.9%；毛利 率17.9%，同比减少15.2个百分点，二季度环比一季度增长5.7个百分点。 2025年上半年，该集团内贸油轮船队完成内贸油运运输收入人民币27.4亿元，同比减少5.5%；运输毛利 人民币6.7亿元，同比减少6.9%；毛利率24.4%，同比减少0.4个百分点。 浙商证券指出， 作为中远海能业绩核心弹性的外贸油运板块，受国际市场波动影响，上半年实现毛利 12.89亿元，同比下降49.1%。该行认为这主要由于去年同期红海危机推高成品油轮运价基数，以及今年 新交付运力增加所致 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with a slight recovery in Q2, indicating challenges in the oil transportation sector but potential for improvement in the upcoming quarters [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - Revenue for H1 2025 was 11.64 billion yuan, down 2.5% year-on-year; Q2 revenue was 5.89 billion yuan, down 1.1% year-on-year but up 2.4% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2025 was 1.87 billion yuan, down 29.2% year-on-year; Q2 net profit was 1.16 billion yuan, down 16.4% year-on-year but up 64.2% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - Non-recurring gains in Q2 amounted to 96 million yuan, primarily from the disposal of an old VLCC [1]. Business Segments - **Domestic Oil Transportation**: Q2 revenue was 1.37 billion yuan, down 6.3% year-on-year; gross margin was 24.0%, slightly up year-on-year [1][2]. - **LNG Transportation**: Q2 revenue was 630 million yuan, up 56.5% year-on-year; gross margin was 49.9%, down year-on-year [2]. - **Foreign Oil Transportation**: Q2 revenue was 3.73 billion yuan, down 5.4% year-on-year; gross margin was 20.2%, down year-on-year [2]. Market Dynamics - The oil transportation market is experiencing price fluctuations, with VLCC rates supported by OPEC's production increase and tightening sanctions on non-compliant trade [3]. - The supply side is constrained by limited new ship deliveries and the retirement of older vessels, while demand is expected to rise due to increased production from non-OPEC regions [3]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company maintains a positive outlook for the VLCC market, projecting net profits of 5.29 billion, 6.33 billion, and 7.08 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 9, 8, and 7 [4]. - The current price suggests a dividend yield of approximately 5.4% for 2025, assuming a 50% payout ratio [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in both revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025 compared to the same period last year [1] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 11.642 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 2.55% [1] - The net profit for the same period was 1.869 billion, showing a significant year-on-year decline of 29.16% [1]