29 March 2026 | 7:39PM HKT Equity Research COSCO Shipping Energy (1138.HK) FY25 results review: missed on delayed recognition of high TCE; mgmt guide a normal load factor for vessels outside the Gulf | 1138.HK | 12m Price Target: HK$29.00 | Price: HK$18.98 | Upside: 52.8% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600026.SS | 12m Price Target: Rmb32.00 | Price: Rmb23.69 | Upside: 35.1% | COSCO Shipping Energy reported FY25 results and hosted results briefing on Mar 27. FY25 net profit was Rmb4.0bn, implying 4Q25 net pro ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the express delivery industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [1]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry is experiencing price increases due to rising oil prices and a trend against excessive competition, with multiple regions implementing price hikes [1][10]. - The industry is entering a new phase of high-quality development, focusing on improving service quality and maintaining stable pricing, which is expected to benefit leading companies [3][84]. - The volume growth in the express delivery sector is gradually recovering, with a notable increase in the growth rate of delivery volumes in early 2026 compared to the previous year [2][12]. Summary by Sections Price Adjustments - Multiple express delivery companies have raised prices in response to increased transportation costs due to rising oil prices, with adjustments starting from March 23, 2026, in various provinces [1][10]. - The price adjustments reflect a broader trend of stabilizing prices in the industry, with significant increases in single-package revenue reported by major companies [2][11]. Volume Growth - The growth rate of express delivery volumes has shown signs of recovery, with January and February 2026 reporting a 7.1% increase compared to previous months [2][12]. - Major companies like YTO and ZTO have outperformed the market in terms of volume growth, indicating a strengthening competitive position [15][16]. Market Positioning - Leading companies in the express delivery sector are expected to gain market share as they benefit from improved volume structures and pricing strategies [3][13]. - ZTO is highlighted as a key player with a commitment to enhancing investor returns, while YTO continues to show strong performance metrics [18][19][86]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests continued investment in leading express delivery companies such as ZTO, YTO, and Shentong, emphasizing their potential for growth in the evolving market landscape [3][20][21]. - The report also highlights the importance of maintaining a focus on performance elasticity and dividend value in the transportation sector, particularly in shipping and express delivery [7][82].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [11] Core Insights - The oil shipping sector is experiencing an upward trend, while the bulk shipping sector is recovering, with Q1 performance expected to show significant growth. Recommendations include China Merchants Energy Shipping, COSCO Shipping Energy, Haitong Development, and Pacific Shipping [2][6] - Container shipping is resuming bookings to the Middle East, highlighting its advantageous attributes. Recommended companies include SITC International and Zhonggu Logistics [2][6] - The new energy supply chain is benefiting significantly, with recommendations for leading special ship companies like COSCO Shipping Specialized and those involved in wind power and electric vehicle exports [2][6] Summary by Sections Container Shipping Recovery - Container shipping has resumed bookings to the Middle East, with major companies like COSCO and Maersk announcing multi-modal transport solutions. Container shipping prices have stabilized and increased, with a month-on-month rise of 181% for the Persian Gulf route. This recovery alleviates the "price without market" situation, benefiting from geopolitical fluctuations [6][7] Oil and Bulk Shipping Performance - The oil shipping sector is seeing a supply-demand resonance, with VLCC TCE rates rapidly increasing and expected significant year-on-year profit growth for leading companies. The dry bulk shipping sector is also performing well, with iron ore and bauxite shipments high, leading to the best performance of the BDI index in five years [6][7] Price Trends - The average VLCC-TCE fell by 11.0% to $192,000 per day. The SCFI index for foreign trade container shipping rose by 7.0% to 1,827 points, while the BDI index decreased by 1.2% to 2,031 points [7][33] Stock Performance - In the A-share market, the top five shipping companies by weekly stock price increase were COSCO Shipping Specialized (12.3%), Haitong Development (5.7%), Ningbo Shipping (4.6%), Antong Holdings (2.8%), and China Merchants Energy Shipping (1.9%) [8][42] - In the overseas market, Scorpio Tankers led with an 11.4% increase, followed by TORM (6.8%) and International Seaways (5.0%) [8][45] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on energy security as a main theme, recommending oil shipping and energy-benefiting stocks. If the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz is manageable, it could lead to a demand surge for oil replenishment. Long-term demand normalization and the continued bullish logic of COSCO Shipping are expected to drive oil shipping into a high-price, high-volume phase [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of RMB 26.80 and HKD 21.00 [7] Core Insights - The company reported a net profit of RMB 4.04 billion for 2025, which is a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year, primarily due to higher-than-expected costs. However, the net profit for Q4 2025 was RMB 1.31 billion, showing a significant increase of 111.5% year-on-year and 54.0% quarter-on-quarter, driven by a substantial rise in VLCC tanker rates since Q4 2025. The company announced a year-end dividend of RMB 0.38 per share, corresponding to an annual payout ratio of 51.4% [1][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's foreign trade oil transportation achieved a gross profit of RMB 3.37 billion in 2025, a decrease of 6.0% year-on-year, mainly due to a decline in profits from foreign trade refined oil. The gross profit from foreign trade crude oil and refined oil tankers was RMB 2.29 billion and RMB 0.56 billion, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +34.6% and -32.9%. In Q4, the gross profit from foreign trade crude oil and refined oil tankers was RMB 1.31 billion and RMB 0.14 billion, showing year-on-year increases of 364.0% and 704.5% [2] Market Dynamics - The VLCC rates have significantly increased since Q4 2025, with the average BDTI VLCC rate rising by 263% year-on-year to USD 148,000 per day as of March 26, 2026. The rates for VLCC routes from the Middle East to China, the US Gulf to China, and West Africa to China have increased by 443%, 166%, and 189%, respectively [4] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the core variable determining the performance of shipping rates in 2026 will be whether the Strait of Hormuz resumes normal operations. If the strait gradually reopens, it will support current high shipping rates; conversely, prolonged control could lead to a decline in global crude oil transport volumes and pressure on rates [4][5] Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for 2026 has been raised by 69% to RMB 9.82 billion, and for 2027 by 19% to RMB 7.38 billion, with a new forecast for 2028 at RMB 7.20 billion. The target price has been adjusted to RMB 26.80 and HKD 21.00, reflecting the current high shipping rates and long-term energy transport premiums [5][11]

证券研究报告 交通运输 | 航运港口 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 03 月 29 日 证券分析师 孙延 SAC：S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 曾智星 SAC：S1350524120008 zengzhixing@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 SAC：S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 张付哲 SAC：S1350525070001 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com 高树根 gaoshugen@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 收盘价（元） | 23.69 | | --- | --- | | 一 年 内 最 高 / 最 低 | 27.17/9.74 | | （元） | | | 总市值（百万元） | 129,471.08 | | 流通市值（百万元） | 113,019.69 | | 总股本（百万股） | 5,465.22 | | 资产负债率（%） | 46.09 | | 每股净资产（元/股） | 8.49 | | 资料来源：聚源数据 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation industry [4]. Core Insights - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from the spring holiday travel, with domestic fuel surcharges and rising ticket prices in the China-Europe routes aiding oil price transmission. The report suggests taking advantage of the geopolitical oil price opportunities [3][4]. - The oil shipping trade remains chaotic, with expectations that Chinese shipping companies' profits may exceed forecasts due to the high demand and strategic value of oil shipping [4]. - The highway sector is seeing a recovery in traffic demand, with various regions initiating expansion projects that could significantly impact long-term investment returns [4]. Summary by Sections Aviation - The spring holiday is anticipated to boost travel during the Qingming Festival, with high passenger load factors supporting a continued increase in domestic ticket prices. The average domestic aviation fuel price is expected to rise by over 4% year-on-year, while the gross profit margin for airlines is projected to improve significantly [4]. - The report highlights that the Chinese aviation supply has entered a low growth phase, and demand is expected to benefit from increased consumer spending, ensuring that the impact of oil prices is less than market concerns [4]. Oil Shipping - The oil shipping sector has entered a high prosperity phase, with the geopolitical situation in the Middle East providing unexpected opportunities for supply and demand dynamics. The report notes that the average daily earnings for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) are currently over $10,000 [4]. - Short-term disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing trade chaos are expected to keep shipping rates high, with Chinese shipowners adapting to maximize profits [4]. Highways - The report identifies five key policy trends in highway expansion that could significantly influence investment returns. These include the ability to reassess toll periods and standards, treating expansion projects as new constructions, and extending operational periods from 30 to 40 years [4]. - The stable cash flow and dividends from highway companies make them attractive for investment, with recommendations for specific companies in this sector [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation industry [2] Core Views - The report highlights the ongoing price increases in the express delivery sector, with regions like Sichuan, Yiwu, Yunnan, and Jiangxi leading the way in implementing price hikes. This trend is expected to improve the profitability of leading companies in the industry [6] - The logistics and express delivery sectors are experiencing a shift towards high-quality development, driven by policies aimed at reducing internal competition and enhancing service quality. The report suggests that the "anti-involution" policies will boost industry profitability [6] - The aviation sector is anticipated to benefit from a recovery in demand, with expectations of improved performance for major airlines as they navigate high oil prices and operational challenges [4][6] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The report emphasizes the potential for significant returns in the aviation sector, particularly for major airlines like China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and Hainan Airlines, which are expected to see improved profitability due to a recovery in travel demand and operational efficiencies [4][6] - The express delivery sector is highlighted for its resilience and growth potential, with companies like ZTO Express, YTO Express, and Shentong Express recommended for investment due to their strong market positions and expected benefits from rising prices [6] Operational Tracking - Data from March 16 to March 22 indicates a total of 54.58 million truck passages on highways, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3.38% [6] - The report tracks the performance of major airlines, noting that Eastern Airlines and Southern Airlines have seen increases in their average daily flights and aircraft utilization rates, indicating a recovery in operational capacity [4][6] Logistics Data Tracking - The express delivery sector reported a total of approximately 3.845 billion packages collected and 3.891 billion delivered during the week of March 16 to March 22, with year-on-year increases of 4.43% and 5.53%, respectively [6] - The report notes that the logistics infrastructure, particularly highways, is expected to benefit from increased demand as the economy stabilizes and consumer spending rises [6] Market Comparison - The report compares the performance of the transportation sector against broader market trends, indicating that the sector is poised for growth as economic conditions improve and consumer confidence returns [2][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the transportation industry, indicating a strong performance relative to market benchmarks [3][7]. Core Insights - The ongoing geopolitical conflicts, particularly the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran, are expected to accelerate the realization of geopolitical options, leading to increased demand for oil transportation due to concerns over energy security and excessive inventory replenishment [3][7]. - The oil transportation supply-demand dynamics are projected to improve significantly, driven by increased oil production in 2025 and sustained sanctions, which will enhance industry profitability [3][7]. - The report highlights that the VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) rates remain high, with the Middle East to China VLCC TCE (Time Charter Equivalent) reaching approximately $400,000 per day, despite fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions [7][12]. Summary by Sections Geopolitical Impact - The conflict in the Middle East has led to a more than 95% reduction in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with about 8% of VLCCs stranded in the area [7][12]. - VLCC rates have surged, with initial spikes reaching $600,000 per day, currently stabilizing around $400,000 per day, indicating historical high levels [7][12]. Supply Chain Adjustments - To mitigate the impact of the Strait's closure, Middle Eastern countries are utilizing alternative ports and pipelines, with Saudi Arabia increasing its export capacity to 7 million barrels per day [7][12]. - The IEA has authorized the release of 400 million barrels from emergency reserves, with the U.S. contributing the largest share of 172.2 million barrels [16]. Future Demand Drivers - The report anticipates that strategic inventory replenishment will be a key driver of oil transportation demand, with the U.S. planning to replenish approximately 200 million barrels of strategic reserves over the next year [7][12]. - Concerns over energy security are expected to lead to increased inventory levels among traditional energy-consuming countries, further boosting oil transportation needs [7][12].

Group 1 - The logistics ETF, 富国 (516910), opened down 0.92% at 1.190 yuan on March 27 [1][2] - Major holdings in the logistics ETF include 中远海控 (down 0.66%), 顺丰控股 (down 0.76%), 京沪高铁 (down 0.40%), 招商轮船 (up 0.18%), 大秦铁路 (down 0.19%), 圆通速递 (up 0.30%), 蔚蓝锂芯 (down 1.72%), 中远海能 (down 1.72%), 物产中大 (down 0.97%), and 建发股份 (down 0.44%) [1][2] - The performance benchmark for the logistics ETF is the 中证现代物流指数 return rate, managed by 富国基金管理有限公司, with a fund manager named 张圣贤 [1][2] Group 2 - Since its establishment on June 3, 2021, the logistics ETF has achieved a return of 19.97%, with a return of 0.52% over the past month [1][2]

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