| | | | ——国泰海通交运周观察 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | | | 岳鑫(分析师) | 0755-23976758 | yuexin@gtht.com | S0880514030006 | | | | 陈亦凡(研究助理) | 0755-23976151 | chenyifan2@gtht.com | S0880124070025 | [Table_subIndustry] | | 油运战略价值凸显，快递行业量价双升 [Table_Industry] 运输 ——国泰海通交运周观察 本报告导读： 航空：国内客座率高企票价上升，国际中欧航线票价大涨，油价影响或小于担忧， 建议把握地缘油价逆向时机。油运：油运战略价值凸显，中国船队价值将超预期。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 运输《"超级周期"正在开启，地缘油价逆向时 机》2026.03.21 运输《油运迎来"超级牛市"，期待超高景气持 续》2026.03 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping industry, particularly emphasizing the value of Chinese tanker assets as a safe haven [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in Aframax tanker rates, which surged by 54% to $188,000 per day, driven by geopolitical tensions and changes in trade routes [2]. - The report recommends several companies, including China Merchants Energy Shipping, COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation, and China Merchants South China Shipping, as key players to watch in the sector [2]. - The report notes that the global oil trade routes are being reassessed, with the price at Yanbu port reaching $287,000 per day, indicating strong demand and potential for further growth [2]. Summary by Sections Shipping Market Performance - The transportation index fell by 2.65%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.46 percentage points, with the shipping sector showing the largest gain of 1.21% among sub-sectors [4]. - The Baltic Dry Index reported a slight decrease of 0.05%, while the crude oil tanker index increased by 4.22% [4]. Oil Transportation - The report indicates that the average VLCC rate increased by 22% week-on-week, reaching $230,208 per day, with specific routes like the Middle East to China remaining stable at $410,872 per day [2]. - The report emphasizes the potential for increased volumes in the Atlantic market due to significant price differentials and strategic oil reserve releases [2]. Product Oil Transportation - The LR2-TC1 rate rose by 37% to $118,991 per day, driven by geopolitical factors affecting Middle Eastern exports [2]. - The report notes a 20% increase in MR average rates, reflecting a recovery in the Atlantic market [2]. Dry Bulk Shipping - The report mentions that the BDI recorded a slight decrease, but larger vessels like Capesize saw a 3.1% increase in rates, indicating resilience in the market [2]. - The report highlights increased coal exports from Indonesia and Australia, supporting Panamax rates [2]. Air Transportation - The report discusses the ongoing challenges in the aircraft manufacturing supply chain and the aging fleet, which is expected to constrain supply [2]. - Despite short-term pressures from rising oil prices, the long-term outlook for the air transport sector remains positive [2]. Express Delivery - The report anticipates a recovery in delivery fees due to new policies, benefiting leading companies like ZTO Express and YTO Express [2]. - The report highlights the growth potential of J&T Express in Southeast Asia [2]. Rail and Road Transportation - The report notes resilience in rail freight volumes and highway truck traffic, with significant week-on-week increases reported [2]. - It suggests that traditional high-dividend investment themes and potential value management catalysts in the highway sector are worth monitoring [2].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 03 22 年 月 日 交通运输 "当前去库+后续补库"有望演绎，重视中国油运公司 周观点：油运，霍尔木兹海峡困局依旧，若"当前去库+后期补库"情形发生， VLCC 预计将体现较大的量价弹性；集运，关注战争持续性与可能带来的供应 链紊乱概率、船用燃油价格上涨与加注难度。重点关注招商轮船、中远海能、 ST 松发、中远海运国际和海通发展等。 行情回顾：本周（2026.3.16-2026.3.20）交通运输板块行业指数下跌 2.65%， 跑赢上证指数 0.73 个百分点（上证指数下跌 3.38%）。从申万交通运输行业 三级分类看，涨幅第一名板块为航运，涨幅为 1.21%；跌幅前三名板块分别为 公交、航空运输、仓储物流，跌幅分别为-6.87%、-6.78%、-5.76%。 航运港口：油运，霍尔木兹海峡困局依旧，若"当前去库+后期补库"情形发 生，VLCC 预计将体现较大的量价弹性；集运，关注战争持续性与可能带来的 供应链紊乱概率、船用燃油价格上涨与加注难度。霍尔木兹海峡通行持续受 阻，部分原油改由沙特红海港口 Yanbu 装运，但可用船位有限，地缘风险溢 ...

www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 证 券 研 究 报 告 海峡受限类比弹簧压缩，重视释放后全板块弹性 交通运输春季策略：中东变局下航运船舶展望 证券分析师 闫海 A0230519010004 罗石 A0230524080012 张慧 A0230524100001 严天鹏 A0230524090004 王晨鉴 A0230525030001 王易 A0230525050001 郑逸欢 A0230526010001 王凯婕 A0230525110001 范晨轩 A0230525070003 联系人 闫海 A0230519010004 2026.3.18 中东变局：首推现金奶牛油轮板块，关注集运、散货造船中期影响 ◼ 霍尔木兹海峡冲击前各版块主要矛盾：大周期向上，中周期与商品通胀共振 ◼ 冲击带来的长逻辑变化：油轮、散货、集装箱、造船 2. 中周期-受通胀预期、逆全球化、地缘冲突上修 3. 油轮：类比被压缩的弹簧 4. 散货集装箱：短期关注加油排队效率损失，中期关注 波斯湾内重建带来需求拉动 5. 造船：油、气海工为战略资产，重视ST松发，中国船 舶 大周期位置：更新周期长周期向上，中周期进入 ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責， 對 其 準 確 性 或 完 整 性 亦 不 發 表 任 何 聲 明，並 明 確 表 示 概 不 就 因 本 公 告 全 部 或 任 何 部 份 內 容 而 產 生 或 因 倚 賴 該 等 內 容 而 引 致 的 任 何 損 失 承 擔 任 何 責 任。 COSCO SHIPPING ENERGY TRANSPORTATION CO., LTD.* 中遠海運能源運輸股份有限公司 中遠海運能源運輸股份有限公司（「本公司」）之董事會（「董事會」）茲宣佈本公司謹訂 於二零二六年三月二十六日（星 期 四）舉 行 董 事 會 會 議，藉 以 審 議 及 通 過（其 中 包 括） 宣佈本公司及其附屬公司截至二零二五年十二月三十一日止之全年業績公告及紅 利派發（如 有）。 承董事會命 中遠海運能源運輸股份有限公司 公司秘書 倪藝丹 中 華 人 民 共 和 國，上 海 二零二六年三月十六日 於 本 公 告 刊 發 日 期，董 事 會 由 執 行 董 事 任 永 強 先 生 及 朱 邁 進 先 生，非 執 行 董 事 汪 樹 青 先 生、王 威 先 生、周 ...

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research 11 March 2026 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. China Tanker Shipping {[{gDq0RVjbEWDwKM39iar0TxJkYO1wyloHkr3KGrXxYMkptRQ4QVimDCiDooKwFtosews_ZPKo9DAMT4Zg}]} • Forward charter market signals sustained ...

Investment Rating - The transportation industry is rated as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The battery swapping model is achieving "time-saving, labor-saving, worry-free, and more profitable" results, with Cao Cao Mobility planning to deploy 100,000 Robotaxi vehicles by 2030 [3][13] - EHang Intelligent expects to achieve full-year GAAP profitability in 2026, with order volume, production capacity, and profitability milestones validating the commercialization of eVTOL [3][15] - The U.S. Department of Transportation and FAA have launched an eVTOL integration pilot program, with eight projects selected to commence real operational testing in the summer of 2026 [3][16] - Cathay Pacific has raised fuel surcharges, reflecting the transmission of oil price shocks to ticket prices [3][18] - Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is nearly stagnant due to escalating U.S.-Iran conflicts, increasing shipping risks and oil prices [3][29] Industry Dynamics Tracking - The Baltic Air Freight Price Index has increased month-on-month but decreased year-on-year [4][31] - The shipping and port sector shows an increase in container shipping rates and dry bulk freight rates, while oil shipping rates have decreased [4][43] - In express logistics, the volume of express deliveries increased by 2.30% year-on-year in December 2025, with revenue up by 0.70% [4] - In aviation, the average daily international flights in the second week of March 2026 were 1,750.29, down 2.92% month-on-month but up 7.12% year-on-year [4] - The number of trucks passing through national highways increased by 40.64% week-on-week from March 2 to March 8 [4] Investment Recommendations - Focus on low-altitude economy and autonomous driving trends, recommending companies like CITIC Heli and Cao Cao Mobility [5] - Monitor opportunities in the shipping sector, particularly in oil, dry bulk, and container shipping, recommending companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping [5] - Explore international market expansion opportunities in express logistics, recommending SF Express and Jitu Express [5] - Keep an eye on investment opportunities in high-speed rail and highways, recommending Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway [5] - Dynamic monitoring of aviation investment opportunities, recommending China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the oil shipping market in the medium to long term [2]. Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has agreed to release 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves, the largest collective intervention in its 52-year history, significantly exceeding the 182 million barrels released in response to the Ukraine crisis in 2022 [2]. - The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has created a supply gap of approximately 10 million barrels per day from the Persian Gulf, with the IEA's release expected to cover around 40 days of this supply shortfall [2]. - The market is transitioning from a state of "price without volume" to "price with volume," with current freight rates exceeding pre-war expectations, indicating a potential for long-term improvement in the oil shipping market [2]. - The report highlights that the shipping distance for oil from the Atlantic to Asia will increase significantly, approximately 2.5 times the distance from the Middle East to Asia, due to the geopolitical situation [2]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - The report discusses the impact of the IEA's release of strategic reserves on oil prices, aiming to alleviate concerns over supply shortages and reduce recession fears [2]. - The oil tanker market is expected to experience increased shipping distances in the short term, with a potential for significant volume increases once the Strait of Hormuz is reopened [2]. Company Valuations - China Merchants Energy (中远海能) is rated "Buy" with a closing price of 22.11 RMB and a market cap of 120.8 billion RMB, with projected net profits increasing from 40.37 billion RMB in 2024 to 72.3 billion RMB in 2027 [6]. - China Merchants Shipping (招商轮船) is also rated "Buy" with a closing price of 15.58 RMB and a market cap of 125.8 billion RMB, with net profits projected to rise from 51.07 billion RMB in 2024 to 89.15 billion RMB in 2027 [6]. Freight Rate Analysis - The report includes a freight rate elasticity test, showing that the theoretical maximum freight rate for oil tankers could reach approximately 366 million USD per day under current market conditions [3]. - Current freight rates for Yanbu port exceed 170,000 USD per day, while Atlantic freight rates range from 120,000 to 140,000 USD per day, indicating a robust market compared to pre-war levels [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the transportation industry, indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [78]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant impact of the ongoing Middle East conflict on shipping rates, with oil tanker rates experiencing a decline but remaining at historical highs, while container shipping rates are on the rise [1][2]. - The daily average of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz has drastically decreased by 95% to 5 vessels, compared to 125 vessels before the conflict, with oil tankers averaging only 1 vessel per day [1][11]. - Brent crude oil futures have shown substantial volatility, closing at $103.89 per barrel, an increase of 11% from March 6 [1][15]. Industry Data Tracking Shipping Market Impact - Oil shipping rates have adjusted from historical highs, with the Clarksons VLCC-TCE index at $175,000, down 54.2% week-on-week. The Middle East to China route is reported at $390,000 per day, down 17% [2][18]. - Container shipping rates have increased, with the SCFI index reaching 1710 points, up 14.9% week-on-week, driven by rising fuel costs and the ongoing geopolitical situation [2][25]. - The dry bulk shipping market has seen limited impact, with the BDI index at 2028 points, reflecting a 0.9% increase week-on-week [2][26]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that if the Middle East conflict remains manageable and the passage through the Strait of Hormuz gradually resumes, it could trigger a replenishment market. The report continues to recommend companies such as China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy [3][31]. - Emphasis is placed on the importance of energy resource security, with recommendations for logistics and warehousing companies like Hongchuan Wisdom and Milky Way [3][31]. - The report also highlights the potential for growth in the aviation sector, with a focus on major airlines and logistics companies, suggesting a favorable outlook for companies like China Southern Airlines and Spring Airlines [4][58].

行 业 及 产 业 交通运输/ 航运港口 2026 年 03 月 15 日 相关研究 《油运价理论上限远高目前水平，运价从 "有价无量"到"有价有量"——中东局 势升级以来油运市场常见问题解读》 2026/03/08 《霍尔木兹海峡封锁，短期混乱不改中期 基本面向上——霍尔木兹海峡通航情况跟 踪点评》 2026/03/06 《中远海能（01138）深度：油运龙头标 的，基本面迎中长期改善》 2025/10/20 《油轮淡季逆势走强，或迎中长期基本面 改善——2025 年油轮市场基本面跟踪》 2025/09/30 证券分析师 张慧 A0230524100001 zhanghui@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 研究支持 张慧 A0230524100001 zhanghui@swsresearch.com 联系人 张慧 A0230524100001 zhanghui@swsresearch.com IEA 释放战储，原油贸易供应西 移，短期运距拉长，中长期补库存 看好 ——中东局势升级以来油运市场重要事件跟踪及点评 证 券 研 究 ...