（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，2月10日，中远海能(01138.HK)涨超5%，截至发稿涨5.04%，报16.06港元，成交额2.35亿 港元。 ...

国泰海通证券表示，两阶段成就油运"超级牛市"。第一阶段：地缘冲突驱动全球原油贸易重构，俄 欧"舍近求远"拉长航距，驱动油运景气跨年度上行已超三年，且产能利用率升至阈值。第二阶段开启： 全球原油开启增产，驱动油运需求继续增长。该行认为，油运运价自9月飙升并维持高位，油轮2025年 Q4与全年盈利将创十年新高。预计2026年油运景气持续将超预期，且具油价下跌期权。 消息面上，财通证券（601108）指出，中远海能经过多年的业务重组整合，现已构建起油、气、化及仓 储一体化链式经营新格局。油运作为公司的核心业务，近十年营收占比长期超过8成，其中外贸原油及 外贸成品油运输业务贡献主要盈利弹性，内贸油运及LNG运输构筑盈利基石。截至2025年9月，统一换 算载重吨口径下，油轮、LNG船、化学品船、LPG船运力分别占比83.2%、16.5%、0.3%、0.1%。 中远海能（600026）(01138)再涨超5%，年初至今股价累涨超六成。截至发稿，涨5.04%，报16.06港 元，成交额2.35亿港元。 ...

消息面上，财通证券指出，中远海能经过多年的业务重组整合，现已构建起油、气、化及仓储一体化链 式经营新格局。油运作为公司的核心业务，近十年营收占比长期超过8成，其中外贸原油及外贸成品油 运输业务贡献主要盈利弹性，内贸油运及LNG运输构筑盈利基石。截至2025年9月，统一换算载重吨口 径下，油轮、LNG船、化学品船、LPG船运力分别占比83.2%、16.5%、0.3%、0.1%。 国泰海通证券表示，两阶段成就油运"超级牛市"。第一阶段：地缘冲突驱动全球原油贸易重构，俄 欧"舍近求远"拉长航距，驱动油运景气跨年度上行已超三年，且产能利用率升至阈值。第二阶段开启： 全球原油开启增产，驱动油运需求继续增长。该行认为，油运运价自9月飙升并维持高位，油轮2025年 Q4与全年盈利将创十年新高。预计2026年油运景气持续将超预期，且具油价下跌期权。 智通财经APP获悉，中远海能(01138)再涨超5%，年初至今股价累涨超六成。截至发稿，涨5.04%，报 16.06港元，成交额2.35亿港元。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Oil ETF (561360), which opened with a slight increase of 0.07% at 1.453 yuan [1] - The major holdings of the Oil ETF include China National Petroleum Corporation, which rose by 0.37%, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, which increased by 0.59%, and Sinopec, which saw a rise of 0.15% [1] - The ETF's performance benchmark is the CSI Oil and Gas Industry Index return, managed by Guotai Fund Management Co., Ltd., with a return of 44.70% since its establishment on October 23, 2023, and a return of 13.93% over the past month [1] Group 2 - Other notable stock performances within the ETF include Jereh Group, which fell by 0.34%, and China Merchants Energy, which decreased by 0.25%, while Guanghui Energy remained unchanged [1] - The article provides a detailed overview of the ETF's performance metrics, indicating a diverse range of stock movements among its holdings [1]

Summary of the Transportation and Logistics Industry Research Report Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Transportation and Logistics, specifically the shipping sector - **Key Metrics**: - VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) freight rate at $102,897/day, down 11.0% week-over-week, up 213.2% year-over-year - MR (Medium Range) freight rate at $25,025/day, down 9.2% week-over-week, up 52.4% year-over-year - SCFI (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index) for routes to the US West Coast, Europe, and Southeast Asia down 5.0%, 4.8%, and 3.7% respectively week-over-week - BDI (Baltic Dry Index) up 14.9% week-over-week, BCI (Baltic Capesize Index) up 19.0%, BSI (Baltic Supramax Index) up 5.8% [4][5][6] Core Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The oil shipping cycle is expected to remain "higher for longer" due to structural changes in demand from older vessels to compliant fleets following tightened sanctions from Europe and the US [5][6] - **Market Concentration**: The VLCC market is traditionally fragmented, with the top 10 companies holding a 44.1% market share. However, recent transactions and long-term charters have led to increased concentration, particularly with new entrants like Sinokor, which has acquired over 30 VLCCs [6] - **Asset Prices**: Second-hand VLCC prices have increased, with 10-year and 15-year-old vessels rising by 11.1% and 16.1% respectively since the beginning of the year [6] - **Charter Rates**: Frontline announced a one-year charter for 7 VLCCs at $76,900/day, exceeding the Clarkson quote of $71,750/day [6] Company Recommendations - **Companies to Watch**: - COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation (中远海能-A) with a target price of 13.50 and P/E ratios of 11.1 for 2026E and 19.2 for 2027E - China Merchants Energy Shipping (招商南油-A) with a target price of 3.70 and P/E ratios of 10.8 for 2026E and 16.6 for 2027E - Zhonggu Logistics (中谷物流-A) with a target price of 13.87 and P/E ratios of 10.6 for 2026E and 9.7 for 2027E - Seaspan Corporation (海丰国际-H) with a target price of 36.00 and P/E ratios of 9.1 for 2026E and 10.3 for 2027E [4][7] Risks - **Geopolitical Risks**: Changes in geopolitical conditions could impact the shipping industry significantly - **Economic Risks**: A substantial slowdown in global economic growth poses a risk to shipping demand [8] Additional Insights - **Valuation and Outlook**: The report maintains its profit forecasts and target prices for covered companies, indicating a positive outlook for the shipping sector [7] - **Market Trends**: The report highlights the importance of monitoring the supply-demand dynamics in the shipping market, particularly in light of recent geopolitical developments and market concentration trends [5][6]

【华创交运】美伊谈判仍存分歧，地缘紧张支撑运价，继续看好油运上行景气 上周克拉克森VLCC TD3C-TCE指数11.8万美元/天，环比+2%；中东-中国航线收于12.7万美元/天，周环比持平， 运价继续保持高位。 上周中东航线2月中旬货盘基本完成下旬货盘也陆续成交，随着低位运力逐步被消化，可用船位悄然收紧，在地缘 政治风险升温的背景下，市场情绪明显上升。 美伊谈判仍存分歧： 上周中东航线2月中旬货盘基本完成下旬货盘也陆续成交，随着低位运力逐步被消化，可用船位悄然收紧，在地缘 政治风险升温的背景下，市场情绪明显上升。 美伊谈判仍存分歧：2/6美伊谈判暂时结束，双方暂未达成一致，地缘局面仍处于复杂状态。 美方继续加码制裁：2/6美国OFAC宣布对涉嫌参与伊朗石油、成品油及石化产品非法贸易的15家实体及14艘"影子 船队"船舶实施制裁。 地缘因素或构成双向驱动油运景气： 1）若地缘风险加剧，如霍尔木兹海峡通行效率受阻，保险费率及风险溢价或大幅推升运价；若伊朗原油出口受 阻，亚洲买家转向合规市场替代货源，增加合规市场需求。 2）若地缘风险趋于缓和，参考委内原油转向合规市场，假设伊朗制裁解除，黑油转白及影子船队出清逻 ...

Company and Industry Summary Company: 中远海能 (COSCO Shipping Energy) Key Points - **Industry Context**: The company is positioned as a global leader in oil transportation, benefiting from a high level of activity in the foreign trade crude oil transportation sector, which is currently experiencing a favorable market environment [1] - **Performance Outlook**: The company is expected to see a release of performance opportunities due to favorable supply-demand dynamics driven by upstream production expansion, geopolitical events, and tightening sanctions [1] - **Price Trends**: The report anticipates that the central price of freight rates is likely to maintain an upward trend, providing greater performance elasticity for the company [1] - **Initial Coverage Rating**: The company has been given an "Overweight" rating in the initial coverage [1] - **Capacity Structure Analysis**: The report provides an in-depth analysis of the company's capacity structure and potential profit elasticity, discussing the future trends in the crude oil transportation industry [1] - **Demand Drivers**: Two major drivers on the demand side are identified, while the supply side is expected to see limited net increases, suggesting a resonance in supply and demand that could support rising freight rates [1] Financial Projections Key Points - **Revenue Forecast**: The company is projected to achieve revenues of 24.31 billion, 27.86 billion, and 29.89 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2] - **Net Profit Forecast**: Expected net profits attributable to the parent company are forecasted to be 4.68 billion, 6.72 billion, and 7.38 billion yuan for the same years [2] - **Price-to-Earnings Ratio**: Corresponding P/E ratios are projected to be 18.7, 13.0, and 11.8 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2] Risk Factors Key Points - **Demand Risks**: A significant decline in crude oil demand poses a risk to the company's performance [2] - **OPEC+ Production Changes**: The risk that OPEC+ may not increase production as expected or may shift to production cuts [2] - **Sanction Implementation**: The potential for sanctions to not be implemented as anticipated [2] - **Environmental Policies**: Risks associated with the advancement of environmental policies that could impact operations [2] - **Geopolitical Risks**: Ongoing war risks and the potential for lock-up shares to be released [2]

财通证券研报指出，中远海能经过多年的业务重组整合，现已构建起油、气、化及仓储一体化链式经营 新格局。油运作为公司的核心业务，近十年营收占比长期超过8成，其中外贸原油及外贸成品油运输业 务贡献主要盈利弹性，内贸油运及LNG运输构筑盈利基石。外贸油运高景气助力业绩释放，内贸及 LNG运输稳增利润。考虑公司作为全球油运龙头有望迎来业绩释放期，首次覆盖，给予"增持"评级。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Oil ETF (561360), which opened with a gain of 0.84% at 1.442 yuan on February 9 [1] - The major holdings of the Oil ETF include China National Petroleum Corporation, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and Sinopec, with varying performance: China National Petroleum down 0.74%, China National Offshore Oil down 0.29%, and Sinopec unchanged [1] - The Oil ETF's performance benchmark is the CSI Oil and Gas Industry Index return, managed by Guotai Fund Management Co., Ltd., with a return of 42.91% since its establishment on October 23, 2023, and a return of 13.78% over the past month [1] Group 2 - Notable stock performances within the ETF include Jerry Holdings up 2.76%, China Merchants Energy up 2.55%, and Henglian Petrochemical up 1.17% [1] - The article provides a detailed overview of the ETF's performance metrics, indicating a strong upward trend in the oil sector [1]

消息面上，特朗普2月3号发文称已与印度总理莫迪达成共识，印度将停止购买俄罗斯石油，转而大幅增 加从美国采购能源等产品；美印双方达成贸易协议，美国对印度的对等关税将从25%下调至18%。财通 证券（601108）认为，后续伴随政策落地，印度将停止购买俄油，国内需求转向合规原油，有望进一步 支撑合规市场运价。中期来看，伴随上游扩产&地缘事件&制裁收紧利好供需，运价中枢有望保持上 涨。 国泰海通证券指出，2026年以来地缘局势紧张，船东情绪高涨，且有海外船东加大租船控制市场，近期 油运运价维持高位。上周中东-中国VLCCTCE维持在12万美元以上高位。提示船东情绪仍将可能持续影 响短期运价，建议关注运价中枢同比上升趋势，该行预计2026Q1油轮盈利将同比大增数倍。重点提示 油运不是短炒地缘局势，而是具有"超级牛市"长逻辑。看好全球原油增产继续驱动油运需求增长，油轮 加速老龄化将保障合规运力供给刚性持续。 中远海能（600026）(01138)涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.26%，报15.43港元，成交额1.05亿港元。 ...