中远海能（600026）(01138)再涨近5%，截至发稿，涨5.29%，报13.54港元，成交额1.08亿港元。 财通证券（601108）发布研报称，受益于规模化的油轮运力，招商轮船（601872）及中远海能业绩弹性 显著。以VLCC为例，TCE每增长1万美元/天，招商轮船、中远海能年化净利润预计分别增长11亿元、 9.5亿元。该行指出，复盘近十年油运景气高点，据iFinD一致预期，在盈利预测口径下，业绩上调后PE 普遍能达到13-15倍，目前A股油运上市公司估值仍有一定提升空间。倘若合规市场供需进一步改善， 有望进一步提升油运公司估值，同时应重视相关标的港股的折价机会。 消息面上，据央视新闻，当地时间1月23日，美国财政部外国资产控制办公室(OFAC)宣布，对与伊朗能 源和航运体系相关的多家实体及船只实施新一轮制裁，重点指向协助伊朗石油、能源及衍生品出口的航 运和管理网络。 ...

消息面上，据央视新闻，当地时间1月23日，美国财政部外国资产控制办公室（OFAC）宣布，对与伊 朗能源和航运体系相关的多家实体及船只实施新一轮制裁，重点指向协助伊朗石油、能源及衍生品出口 的航运和管理网络。 智通财经APP获悉，中远海能(01138)再涨近5%，截至发稿，涨5.29%，报13.54港元，成交额1.08亿港 元。 财通证券发布研报称，受益于规模化的油轮运力，招商轮船及中远海能业绩弹性显著。以VLCC为例， TCE每增长1万美元/天，招商轮船、中远海能年化净利润预计分别增长11亿元、9.5亿元。该行指出，复 盘近十年油运景气高点，据iFinD一致预期，在盈利预测口径下，业绩上调后PE普遍能达到13-15倍，目 前A股油运上市公司估值仍有一定提升空间。倘若合规市场供需进一步改善，有望进一步提升油运公司 估值，同时应重视相关标的港股的折价机会。 ...

投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 运输《航空春运预售启动，预计因私需求旺盛》 2026.01.23 运输《春运预售开始启动，预计需求保持旺盛》 2026.01.20 运输《航空春运预售启动，原油运价大幅飙升》 2026.01.18 运输《原油运价大幅调涨，干散运价淡季回落》 2026.01.18 运输《航空深入"反内卷"，原油运价快速回升》 2026.01.11 证 券 研 究 报 告 股 票 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 春运客流再创新高，原油运价维持高位 [Table_Industry] 运输 ——国泰海通交运周观察 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 岳鑫(分析师) | 0755-23976758 | yuexin@gtht.com | S0880514030006 | | | 陈亦凡(研究助理) | 0755-23976151 | chenyifan2@gtht.com | S0880124070025 | [Table_subIndustry] | 本报告导 ...

Group 1: Stock Market Trends - A-shares saw significant gains with over a hundred stocks hitting the daily limit, and 27 companies are projected to have over 50% upside potential, focusing on smart driving and innovative pharmaceuticals [2][7] - Six stocks have already doubled in price this year, with Zhizhi New Materials showing a remarkable increase of 256.35% [2][7] - The oil shipping sector has shown strong performance, with companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy reaching historical highs, indicating a potential new super cycle in the industry [2][7] Group 2: Technology and Innovation - The photovoltaic sector in A-shares exploded, with over 30 stocks hitting the daily limit following Elon Musk's support for space-based solar power, which is expected to create a demand of nearly 10GW [3][8] - AI marketing is gaining traction, with the market size expanding significantly; leading companies like Zhejiang Wenhu Interconnect have seen stock prices rise nearly 60% in January [5][10] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Future Outlook - Upcoming economic data includes the January PMI report and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with expectations of rates remaining unchanged [4][9] - The Shanghai Composite Index has experienced a rare nine consecutive declines, marking the second occurrence in history, but historical data suggests a high probability of rebound following such streaks [4][10] - A significant amount of capital is expected to flow into the stock market as a large volume of fixed-term deposits matures this year [4][10]

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2026 年 01 月 25 日 油轮制裁力度仍在加大，2025 年快递业务量同比增长 13.6% 招商交通运输行业周报 周期/交通运输 本周关注：航运方面，本周油运运价延续高位，散货运价好转；基础设施方面， 优选个股布局红利资产；航空方面，关注 26 年行业基本面上行趋势；快递方面， 关注 26 年行业竞争格局和估值修复潜力。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | 王春环 | S1090524060003 | wangchunhuan@cmschina.com.c | | --- | --- | --- | | n | 孙修远 | S1090524070005 | | sunxiuyuan@cmschina.com.cn | 肖欣晨 | S1090522010001 | | xiaoxinchen@cmschina.com.cn | 刘若琮 | S1090524110003 | | liuruocong@cmschina.com.cn | 张瑜玲 | S1090525060006 | | zhangyuling2@cmschina.com.cn | | | | | | 占比% | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for major airlines including China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and others, while recommending "Hold" for YTO Express and Shentong Express [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the aviation sector driven by multiple factors, including the upcoming Spring Festival travel peak, the appreciation of the RMB easing cost pressures, and the increase in visa-free countries for Chinese citizens, which is expected to boost international travel demand [4][7]. - The anticipated passenger transport volume during the 2026 Spring Festival is projected to reach a historical high of 95 million, with a daily average of 2.38 million passengers, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 5.3% [4]. - The report emphasizes the cyclical recovery of the civil aviation market, with expectations of rising passenger load factors and ticket prices, driven by a gradual recovery in demand and limited capacity growth [4][7]. Summary by Sections Aviation and Airports - Daily flight operations from January 19 to January 23 showed slight fluctuations, with Eastern Airlines and Southern Airlines operating 2,245.80 and 2,221.80 flights respectively, while year-on-year comparisons indicate a decrease in operations [4]. - The average aircraft utilization rates during the same period were reported, with Spring Airlines achieving the highest at 9.20 hours per day, although all airlines showed a decline compared to the previous year [4]. - The report suggests that the upcoming Spring Festival will significantly enhance market demand, particularly from student travelers, as the holiday season approaches [4][7]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The report notes a divergence in the growth rates of express delivery companies, with a total of approximately 4.073 billion packages collected from January 12 to January 18, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 11.82% [7]. - It highlights the ongoing high-quality development of the express delivery industry, with policies aimed at reducing competition ("anti-involution") expected to improve profitability [7]. - The report recommends focusing on express companies with significant profit elasticity, such as Shentong Express and YTO Express, as well as those with strong growth potential in overseas markets like Jitu Express [7]. Infrastructure - The report tracks various transportation metrics, including highway and railway freight volumes, indicating a mixed performance across sectors [7]. - It suggests that the low-interest-rate environment will continue to support investment in infrastructure, with a focus on high-quality assets [7]. - Specific recommendations include investing in highway companies like Shandong Highway and Anhui Expressway, as well as railway companies like Daqin Railway and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway [7]. Shipping and Trade - The report indicates a mixed performance in shipping rates, with the SCFI index showing a decline of 7.39% week-on-week and a year-on-year drop of 28.73% [7]. - It emphasizes the potential for investment opportunities in oil and bulk shipping due to geopolitical factors and structural demand growth [7]. - Recommendations include focusing on companies like COSCO Shipping Energy and COSCO Shipping Holdings for oil shipping investments, as well as Hai Tong Development for bulk shipping [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping industry, recommending companies such as China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in charter rates for VLCCs, which rose by 4.62% to $62,250 per day, and Cape rates increased by 5.37% to $26,475 per day, indicating a strong correlation between commodity prices and shipping rates [3]. - New ship prices are rising alongside second-hand ship prices, with the new ship composite index increasing by 0.07 to 184.76 points, suggesting a favorable market for shipbuilders [3]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the shipping market, particularly in oil and bulk shipping, with expectations of continued demand driven by geopolitical factors and commodity price fluctuations [3]. Summary by Sections Shipping Market Performance - The shipping index increased by 1.76%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.38 percentage points [4]. - The coastal dry bulk freight index in China rose by 0.84%, while the Shanghai export container freight index fell by 7.39% [4]. Oil Shipping - VLCC rates are currently around $100,000 per day, with a recent decline of 11% in average rates to $105,090 per day, indicating potential volatility in the market [3]. - The report notes that while VLCC rates may adjust, smaller oil tanker rates remain supported due to high demand [3]. Dry Bulk Shipping - The report indicates a rebound in dry bulk rates, particularly driven by increased grain exports from South America, with the BDI index recording a 12.4% increase [3]. - Capesize rates increased by 16.1%, reflecting strong demand in the Pacific market [3]. Container Shipping - The report observes a seasonal decline in container shipping rates as the peak season ends, with the SCFI index dropping by 7.4% [3]. - The resumption of services in the Red Sea has been noted, but the market remains cautious due to geopolitical uncertainties [3]. Air Transportation - The report highlights a significant supply constraint in aircraft manufacturing, with an aging fleet and increasing passenger demand expected to enhance airline profitability [3]. - Airlines are recommended for investment due to their strong demand elasticity and potential for significant earnings growth [3]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The report anticipates a concentration of market share and profits among leading express delivery companies, with a focus on ZTO Express and YTO Express [3]. - The logistics sector shows resilience, with steady growth in freight volumes reported [3].

预计盈利再创新高，期待油运超级牛市 中远海能(600026) ——中远海能更新报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 岳鑫(分析师) | 0755-23976758 | yuexin@gtht.com | S0880514030006 | | 陈亦凡(研究助理) | 0755-23976151 | chenyifan2@gtht.com | S0880124070025 | 本报告导读： 过去四年油运景气实现持续上升，预计 2025 年公司盈利再创新高，2026Q1 业绩将 同比大增。未来数年油运景气有望继续上行，公司外贸油运盈利弹性充分。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 22,733 | 23,244 | 30,650 | 40,995 | 43,693 | | (+/-)% | 21.8% | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The report indicates that the oil transportation industry has experienced continuous growth over the past four years, with expectations for the company's profits to reach new highs in 2025 and a significant year-on-year increase in Q1 2026 [3][12] - The report maintains a target price of 19.28 RMB based on a 16x PE for 2026, reflecting a strong outlook for the company's performance [12] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 22,733 million RMB in 2023 to 43,693 million RMB in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 6.6% [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 3,381 million RMB in 2023 to 7,002 million RMB in 2027, representing a significant growth trajectory [5] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.62 RMB in 2023 to 1.28 RMB in 2027 [5] - The return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to be 9.6% in 2023, peaking at 13.5% in 2026 before slightly declining to 13.3% in 2027 [5] Industry Insights - The report outlines a two-phase logic for the oil transportation market: the first phase driven by trade restructuring due to geopolitical events, and the second phase supported by global oil production increases from OPEC+ starting in April 2025 [12] - The report highlights that the average shipping distance has significantly increased, leading to a rise in demand for oil transportation, with expectations for freight rates to rise substantially in the second half of 2025 [12] - The company is well-positioned with a fleet of 53 VLCCs, providing substantial profit elasticity in foreign trade oil transportation [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2] Core Views - The report indicates that the oil shipping industry has experienced continuous growth over the past four years, with expectations for the company's profits to reach new highs by 2025 and a significant year-on-year increase in Q1 2026 [3] - The report emphasizes that the oil shipping market is likely to continue its upward trend, driven by robust demand elasticity in foreign trade oil shipping [3] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections (in million RMB): - 2023A: 22,733 - 2024A: 23,244 - 2025E: 30,650 - 2026E: 40,995 - 2027E: 43,693 - Year-on-year growth rates: 21.8%, 2.2%, 31.9%, 33.8%, 6.6% [5] - Net profit projections (in million RMB): - 2023A: 3,381 - 2024A: 4,037 - 2025E: 4,516 - 2026E: 6,619 - 2027E: 7,002 - Year-on-year growth rates: 132.1%, 19.4%, 11.9%, 46.6%, 5.8% [5] - The report maintains a target price of 20.26 HKD for 2026, based on a 15x PE ratio [9] Industry Insights - The report outlines a two-phase logic for the oil shipping market: 1. The first phase is driven by trade restructuring, particularly following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has significantly increased average shipping distances and demand [9] 2. The second phase involves a global increase in oil production starting April 2025, which is expected to further boost oil shipping demand [9] - The report anticipates a significant rise in oil shipping rates in the second half of 2025, with expectations for the highest global tanker profits in a decade [9] - The company operates 53 VLCCs, with a strong profit elasticity in foreign trade oil shipping, indicating that a $10,000 increase in VLCC TCE could lead to an approximate net profit increase of 1 billion RMB [9]