证券研究报告 交通运输 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 21 日 证券分析师 孙延 SAC：S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 SAC：S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 曾智星 SAC：S1350524120008 zengzhixing@huayuanstock.com 张付哲 SAC：S1350525070001 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com 联系人 板块表现： 快递 6 月数据明显分化，关注行业反内卷进程 投资评级： 看好（维持） —交通运输行业周报（2025 年 7 月 14 日-2025 年 7 月 20 日） 投资要点： 一、行业动态跟踪 快递物流： 1）各家快递公司发布 6 月经营业绩，顺丰业务量增速维持 30%+，"通达系"中圆 通增速保持领先。2025 年 6 月圆通/韵达/申通/顺丰完成业务量 26.27 / 21.73 /21 ...

中国经济网北京7月20日讯 中远海能(600026.SH)近日发布公告称，公司于2025年7月18日收到上海证券 交易所出具的《关于中远海运能源运输股份有限公司向特定对象发行股票的交易所审核意见》，公司向 特定对象发行股票申请符合发行条件、上市条件和信息披露要求。上海证券交易所将在收到公司申请文 件后提交中国证监会注册。 中远海能表示，公司本次向特定对象发行股票事项尚需经中国证监会同意注册后方可实施，最终能否获 得中国证监会同意注册的批复及其时间尚存在不确定性。公司将根据该事项的进展情况及时履行信息披 露义务。 中远海能于2025年7月8日发布的《2025年度向特定对象发行A股股票证券募集说明书(修订稿)》显示， 本次向特定对象发行股票募集资金总额不超过800,000.00万元（含本数），在扣除相关发行费用后的募 集资金净额将投资于如下项目：投资建造6艘VLCC、投资建造2艘LNG运输船、投资建造3艘阿芙拉型 原油轮。 本次向特定对象发行的股票种类为境内上市的人民币普通股（A股），每股面值为人民币1.00元。本次 发行全部采取向特定对象发行的方式，在经上交所审核通过并获得中国证监会同意注册的批复后，公司 将在 ...

证券代码：600026 证券简称：中远海能 公告编号：2025-042 中远海运能源运输股份有限公司 关于公司向特定对象发行股票申请 获得上海证券交易所审核通过的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假 记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性 和完整性承担法律责任。 中远海运能源运输股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2025 年 7 月 18 日 收到上海证券交易所出具的《关于中远海运能源运输股份有限公司向特定对象发 行股票的交易所审核意见》，具体审核意见如下： "中远海运能源运输股份有限公司向特定对象发行股票申请符合发行条件、 上市条件和信息披露要求。本所将在收到你公司申请文件后提交中国证监会注 册。" 公司将根据该事项的进展情况及时履行信息披露义务，敬请广大投资者注意 投资风险。 特此公告。 中远海运能源运输股份有限公司董事会 2025 年 7 月 18 日 1 公司本次向特定对象发行股票事项尚需经中国证券监督管理委员会（以下简 称"中国证监会"）同意注册后方可实施，最终能否获得中国证监会同意注册的 批复及其时间尚存在不确定性。 ...

Group 1: Shipping Industry - The shipping industry is expected to see a divergence in freight rates, with crude oil rates softening while refined oil rates are recovering, indicating a potential bottoming out of oil shipping rates during the summer [1] - The current supply-demand dynamics suggest that marginal changes in demand could have a multiplier effect on freight rates, leading to a recommendation for companies like COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy [1] - The container shipping sector is facing pressure on profitability due to ongoing tariff policies and a subdued economic outlook in Europe and the US, with a recommendation to monitor COSCO Shipping Holdings for potential alpha opportunities [1][2] Group 2: Aviation Industry - The aviation sector has entered the peak summer travel season, with domestic flight volumes increasing by 3.1% compared to the previous week, and overall flight volumes reaching 112.3% of 2019 levels [2] - The average ticket price for domestic routes has decreased by 6.6% year-on-year, while the passenger load factor has improved by 1.4 percentage points to 84.1% [2] - Investment recommendations include closely tracking ticket price performance during the summer peak and considering opportunities in airlines such as Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [2][5] Group 3: Express Delivery Industry - The "anti-involution" policy released on July 1 aims to curb excessive competition in the express delivery sector, which is currently characterized by severe price competition [3] - The introduction of unmanned logistics vehicles is expected to significantly reduce costs for leading companies like SF Express and ZTO Express, with potential cost savings of approximately 2000 yuan per vehicle per month for SF Express [3][4] - Investment recommendations focus on SF Express due to its strong recovery in revenue growth and cost-saving measures, while also monitoring ZTO Express and Yunda Holdings for potential opportunities [3][5][6] Group 4: Overall Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic demand and high-dividend sectors, recommending companies with stable operations and controllable risks, including SF Express, ZTO Express, and China Southern Airlines [5] - The express delivery sector is projected to maintain a growth rate of 21.5% for the year, driven by strong demand from e-commerce platforms [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring price changes and the stability of franchisees in the express delivery industry to capitalize on the effects of the "anti-involution" policy [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights the need for the express delivery industry to shift towards high-quality development, as the State Post Bureau opposes "involution" competition and aims to improve service quality [4] - The express delivery sector is currently experiencing a decline in per-package revenue, with major companies like Zhongtong, Yuantong, Yunda, and Shentong showing year-on-year decreases in revenue per package [4] - Jitu's Southeast Asian market has seen significant growth, with a total package volume of 7.392 billion pieces in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 23.5% [5] - The airline industry is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, with long-term supply-demand trends indicating potential for growth [12] - The shipping sector is anticipated to improve due to OPEC+ production increases and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with specific recommendations for companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping [12] Summary by Sections Express Delivery - The express delivery market is facing intense competition, with major players experiencing a decline in revenue per package [4] - The report suggests that regulatory changes could help improve the situation by reducing low-cost competition and enhancing the performance of leading companies [4][12] Airline Industry - The airline sector is characterized by long-term low supply growth, but demand is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery [12] - Key companies to watch include China National Aviation Holding, Southern Airlines, and HNA Group [12] Shipping and Ports - The report indicates a positive outlook for oil transportation due to OPEC+ production increases and potential interest rate cuts [12] - Recommendations include focusing on companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping for their growth potential in the shipping market [12] Road and Rail - The report notes that the Daqin Railway experienced a year-on-year decrease in freight volume in June 2025, while overall logistics operations remain stable [11][12] - Companies like Zhongyuan Expressway and Sichuan Chengyu are highlighted for their growth potential due to infrastructure developments [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [8] Core Insights - The instant retail market in China is expected to exceed 700 billion yuan by 2025, accounting for over 5% of the country's physical network retail sales [2][5] - The shift in consumer behavior from bulk purchasing to "small quantity, multiple times" is driven by smaller family structures and a faster-paced lifestyle, which enhances the demand for instant retail [5][23] - Instant retail is anticipated to drive growth in instant logistics, benefiting companies like SF Holding, and the deployment of smart delivery lockers is also expected to gain traction [2][5] Summary by Sections Instant Retail Emergence - Instant retail is experiencing explosive growth, with major players like JD and Alibaba investing heavily in this sector [15][19] - The transition from distant e-commerce to near-field retail reflects a strong consumer demand for instant gratification [16][23] Opportunities in Transportation and Logistics - The growth of instant retail is expected to stimulate the logistics sector, with a projected increase in online takeaway market size to approximately 1.7 trillion yuan by 2025, representing about 30% of China's dining consumption [43][48] - Instant delivery orders are projected to grow by 18% year-on-year, reaching 48.3 billion orders in 2024, driven by the expansion of flash warehouses and the need for efficient delivery solutions [49][52] Travel Chain Insights - Domestic passenger volume is showing a stable increase, with a 4% year-on-year rise in the week of July 11, while international passenger volume increased by 16% [64] - The average domestic ticket price has seen a slight decline of 6.8% year-on-year, indicating pressure on short-term revenues despite improving demand [62][64] Maritime and Logistics Developments - The maritime sector is witnessing a rebound, with the average VLCC-TCE rate rising by 9.7% to $27,000 per day, driven by active cargo demand in the Middle East [29][30] - The logistics sector is focusing on addressing "involution" in the express delivery market, with a 16.6% year-on-year increase in express delivery volume, indicating robust industry growth [6][20]

Core Viewpoint - The company, COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation Co., Ltd., is planning to issue A-shares to specific investors to raise up to 800 million RMB for the construction of new vessels, including VLCCs and LNG carriers [3] Group 1: Stock Performance - As of July 11, 2025, COSCO Shipping Energy's stock closed at 10.32 RMB, a 0.29% increase from the previous week [1] - The stock reached a high of 10.37 RMB and a low of 10.22 RMB during the week [1] - The company's current market capitalization is 49.234 billion RMB, ranking 7th in the shipping and port sector and 285th among all A-shares [1] Group 2: Stock Issuance - The company received an inquiry letter from the Shanghai Stock Exchange regarding its application for a specific stock issuance on May 16, 2025, and provided a response on June 11, 2025 [2] - The updated application documents include revisions based on further review comments from the exchange [2] - The issuance is subject to approval from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the China Securities Regulatory Commission [2] Group 3: Dividend Distribution - The company announced a cash dividend of 0.21 RMB per A-share for the year-end distribution, totaling approximately 1.002 billion RMB [4] - The record date for the dividend is July 16, 2025, with the payment date set for July 17, 2025 [4] - The dividend distribution will be subject to different tax treatments for various types of shareholders, including QFIIs and Hong Kong investors [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping sector, recommending companies such as China Shipbuilding, Sumec, and Yangtze River Shipbuilding [1][2]. Core Insights - The shipping assets are resonating with the commodity market, with signs of stabilization in ship prices. The report highlights the potential for left-side layout opportunities as the Chinese shipbuilding industry begins to outperform its Japanese and Korean counterparts [1][2]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of domestic demand in the express delivery sector, suggesting that leading companies may optimize their market share through pricing strategies [1][2]. - The aviation sector is expected to see a recovery in demand as supply chain constraints ease, with recommendations for airlines such as China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines [1][2]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The transportation index increased by 0.76%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.05 percentage points. The raw material supply chain services saw the largest increase at 4.22%, while the railway transportation sector experienced a decline of 0.50% [3][10]. - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose by 15.81% to 1,663 points, indicating strong performance across various vessel types [3][10]. 2. Shipping Sector Insights - VLCC rates increased by 10% to $26,813 per day, with Middle East routes rising by 16%. The report anticipates continued rate recovery due to increased cargo availability [1][2]. - The report notes that the Capesize vessel rates are rebounding, driven by strong demand for iron ore and coal, despite seasonal expectations [1][2]. 3. Express Delivery Sector - The express delivery industry is maintaining high growth rates, with recommendations for companies like SF Express and JD Logistics. The report suggests that the upcoming policies may optimize logistics costs, benefiting leading firms [1][2]. 4. Aviation Sector - The aviation market is entering a peak season, with limited supply growth and natural increases in passenger volume expected to support airline revenues. Recommendations include major airlines such as China Southern Airlines and Cathay Pacific [1][2]. 5. High Dividend Stocks - The report lists high dividend stocks in the transportation sector, including Bohai Ferry with a TTM dividend yield of 8.11% and Daqin Railway with a yield of 3.97% [21].

证券代码：600026 证券简称：中远海能 公告编号：2025-041 中远海运能源运输股份有限公司 2024年末期权益分派实施公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： | 股份类别 | 股权登记日 | 最后交易日 | 除权（息）日 | 现金红利发放日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | A 股 | 2025/7/16 | － | 2025/7/17 | 2025/7/17 | 差异化分红送转： 否 一、 通过分配方案的股东大会届次和日期 本次末期利润分配方案经中远海运能源运输股份有限公司（简称"本公司" 或"公司"）2025 年 6 月 30 日召开的2024年年度股东大会审议通过。 二、 分配方案 截至股权登记日下午上海证券交易所收市后，在中国证券登记结算有限责任 公司上海分公司（简称"中国结算上海分公司"）登记在册的本公司全体股东。 3. 分配方案： 本次末期利润分配以方案实施前的公司总股本4,770,776,395股为基数，每股派 发现金红利人民币0.21 ...

Group 1 - The company, COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation Co., Ltd., plans to issue A-shares to specific investors in 2025, subject to approval from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the China Securities Regulatory Commission [1][2][3] - The total number of shares to be issued will not exceed 1,431,232,918 shares, with the final number to be determined based on subscription conditions and regulatory approvals [1][2] - The company aims to raise funds primarily for the construction of six Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs), two LNG carriers, and three Aframax oil tankers [2][3] Group 2 - The company will initially invest its own funds in the projects until the raised funds are available, and any shortfall in the net amount raised will be covered by the company's own or self-raised funds [2][3] - The company has committed to ensuring that the issuance does not dilute the immediate returns for existing shareholders, with measures in place to address any potential dilution [2][3] - The company’s major shareholders include China Ocean Shipping Group, which holds 46.45% of the shares, making it the indirect controlling shareholder [6][7] Group 3 - The global oil transportation industry is expected to maintain growth, driven by increasing demand in the Asia-Pacific region, which accounts for over 50% of global oil imports [12][13] - The company operates primarily in the maritime transportation of liquid bulk hazardous goods, including crude oil, refined oil, LNG, LPG, and chemicals [6][11] - The international maritime industry is regulated by various organizations, including the International Maritime Organization, which sets standards for safety and environmental protection [8][9]