贸易格局重塑

Search documents
美欧协议引爆“贸易海啸”!OEC预测:全球对美出口恐暴跌46%
智通财经网· 2025-07-28 03:45
Group 1 - The new trade agreement between the US and EU is expected to significantly reduce global exports to the US, with a predicted decline of over 46% by 2027, equating to a decrease of $2.68 trillion [1] - The US is projected to increase its exports globally by 12% by 2027, amounting to an increase of $1.59 trillion [1] - The tariff simulator developed by Datawheel indicates that the trade dynamics will shift, with countries likely to restructure their trade relationships away from the US, except for Mexico and Canada due to their close ties [2] Group 2 - Under the 15% tariff scenario, Germany's exports to the US are expected to rise from $133 billion in 2023 to $149 billion by 2027, a smaller increase compared to a no-tariff scenario where exports would reach $155 billion [2] - The US is expected to import more goods from the UK ($22.5 billion), France ($10.2 billion), and Spain ($5.65 billion), while imports from China ($-485 billion), Canada ($-300 billion), and Mexico ($-238 billion) will decrease [2] - China is projected to see a reduction of $101 billion in imports from the US, while increasing imports from Russia ($70 billion), Vietnam ($34.4 billion), and Saudi Arabia ($28 billion) [3] Group 3 - The imposition of tariffs is anticipated to raise the prices of imported goods, leading to reduced shipment volumes and a more limited variety of products available to US consumers [3] - High-value product orders, such as construction and aerospace equipment, are being paused as companies await final tariff determinations [3] - IKEA is the largest company importing goods into the US from the EU, accounting for 28% of imports, followed by Southern Glazer's Wine and Spirits (9%) and Continental Tire (4%) [3][4] Group 4 - The leading export categories from the EU to the US include furniture (11%), rubber tires (7%), bed covers (6%), and wine (5%) [4]
海运行业2025年度中期投资策略:供给为锚,结构掘金
Changjiang Securities· 2025-07-07 09:17
Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the investment strategy for the shipping industry in the second half of 2025 will focus on cash flow and supply factors due to significant uncertainties in shipping demand caused by frequent tariff policy adjustments [4][7][24] - The shipping sector's investment logic includes: 1) Tight supply in the industry and strong cash flow for near-sea and domestic shipping; 2) Low supply growth with potential marginal changes in demand for oil and bulk shipping [4][7][24] Container Shipping: Tariff Policy Disruptions - In the first half of 2025, the container shipping market faced fluctuations, with pressure on freight rates in Q1 and underwhelming demand post-tariff reductions in Q2 [8][29] - The report notes that the delivery of new ships is expected to reach historical highs, leading to significant supply pressure in the long-distance shipping sector [8][29] - The report highlights that the near-sea shipping market remains favorable due to limited new supply of feeder vessels and ongoing improvements in domestic shipping [8][29] Oil Tankers: Bullish Options Amid Weak Realities - The oil tanker sector is experiencing a lack of improvement in downstream demand, with low operating rates for refineries in China [9][61] - The report indicates that OPEC+ has begun to increase production, which could lead to an upward shift in the demand curve for oil transportation [9][63] - Geopolitical tensions, such as the recent Israel-Iran conflict, are expected to benefit oil shipping due to increased volatility [9][63] Dry Bulk: Weak Supply and Demand - The dry bulk shipping market has seen a decline in freight rates due to disruptions in the shipment of bauxite and iron ore [10][34] - The report anticipates that the commissioning of the West Manganese project by the end of the year will positively impact the demand for Capesize vessels [10][34] Investment Perspective - The report suggests that the near-sea and domestic shipping sectors are positioned for higher profitability due to tight supply and strong cash flow among leading shipping companies [8][58] - The potential implementation of the U.S. 301 tariff measures could further increase demand for feeder vessels, as it would raise operational costs for Chinese shipping companies [51][58]
液化石油气专题:我国对美实施关税反制,LPG市场受影响几何
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-04-07 03:14
Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Oscillating with an upward bias; the tariff policy is bullish, but there are suppressions from the macro and demand sides. It is recommended to wait and see for now. Cross-variety: None. Cross-period: None. Spot-futures: None. Options: None [4] Core Viewpoints - In response to the US tariff increase, China has implemented countermeasures, imposing an additional 34% tariff on all imported goods from the US. As one of the major commodities in Sino-US trade, the LPG market will be significantly affected [3]. - China will significantly reduce its procurement of LPG from the US and turn to sources in the Middle East for substitutes. This change in the trade pattern will lead to extremely unbalanced supply and demand between US and non-US sources (tight supply of non-US sources such as those in the Middle East and loose supply of US sources) [3]. - As raw material costs increase, the losses of PDH plants will further expand. It is expected that some enterprises will choose to carry out maintenance and halt production, and the PDH operating rate may face a certain downward pressure [3]. - With the increase in tariff costs, the price of imported propane in China will be boosted, and the bullish effect will be transmitted to the domestic LPG spot market and the futures market. However, due to the recent sharp decline in international oil prices, it has dragged down the domestic refined oil and post-ether C4 markets. Different from the overseas swaps, the underlying asset of the domestic PG futures is not pure propane. Therefore, the relative weakness of the C4 end will also have a certain restraining effect on the futures market, and it is not advisable to be overly bullish [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs China's Countermeasures and the Increase in LPG Import Tariff Rates - On April 4, 2025, China announced that starting from 12:01 on April 10, 2025, an additional 34% tariff would be imposed on all imported goods from the US. The current bonded and tax exemption policies remain unchanged, and the newly imposed tariffs will not be exempted [9]. - China's tentative tariff rate for liquefied propane and butane is 1%. After the additional 34% tariff, the new tariff rate for importing LPG from the US will rise to 35%, meaning a significant increase in tariff costs. Based on the FEI propane swap price on April 4 (USD 500/ton), the landed cost of importing US propane under the new tariff rate will exceed RMB 5,500/ton, a rise of more than RMB 600/ton compared to the previous day [10] Impact Analysis of Tariff Countermeasures on the LPG Market - The trade volume of LPG between China and the US accounts for a relatively large proportion. In 2024, China's total LPG imports were 35.75 million tons, and imports from the US were 17.98 million tons, accounting for about 50.3% of the total. Among them, China's total imports of liquefied propane were 29.24 million tons, and imports from the US reached 17.32 million tons, accounting for about 59.2% of the total [11]. - After the implementation of the new tariff policy, the import volume of LPG from the US is expected to decline rapidly and may even drop to zero. Traders will turn to the Middle East and other regions to seek alternative sources. China may also conduct swap operations with existing US LPG buyers such as Japan and South Korea to fill the gap of US goods to a certain extent [12]. - China's import demand may decline temporarily, and the non-US source market (especially the Middle East) is expected to tighten significantly. In the US, after losing its largest buyer, it may increase its supply to other countries such as Japan and South Korea, but the consumption volume of these countries is also difficult to cover China's gap, making the US LPG supply more excessive, and the FEI and MB prices face downward pressure [13] Impact of Increased Propane Import Costs on PDH Plant Profits - After the tariff increase, China's propane import costs will rise, and the profits of domestic PDH plants will be further pressured [26]. - Due to the overcapacity in the domestic PDH industry and the weak prices of downstream products, the profits of PDH plants are currently relatively low, with a profit of about -RMB 400/ton for propylene production, and the plant operating rate is around 65%. As raw material costs increase, the losses of plants will further expand, and the PDH operating rate may face a certain downward pressure [27]. - This year is still in the commissioning cycle of China's PDH plants, and the planned production capacity to be put into operation may reach 5 million tons/year. After the increase in raw material costs, it is expected that the commissioning progress may be postponed, which will also ease the supply pressure of downstream products such as propylene in China [27] Impact of Tariff Support on Propane Prices and Constraints from Crude Oil and C4 - With the increase in tariff costs, the price of imported propane in China will be boosted, and the bullish effect will be transmitted to the domestic LPG spot market and the futures market. However, due to the recent sharp decline in international oil prices, it has dragged down the domestic refined oil and post-ether C4 markets. The underlying asset of the domestic PG futures is a civil mixed gas, not pure propane. Therefore, the relative weakness of the C4 end will also have a certain restraining effect on the futures market, and it is not advisable to be overly bullish [31]