股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.23 [Table_Industry] 运输 | 风险提示。经济波动，地缘局势，制裁执行力度变化，安全事故等。 | | --- | | 财务摘要(百万人民币) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 22,733 | 23,244 | 30,650 | 40,995 | 43,693 | | (+/-)% | 21.8% | 2.2% | 31.9% | 33.8% | 6.6% | | 毛利润 | 3,381 | 4,037 | 4,516 | 6,619 | 7,002 | | 净利润 | 132.1% | 19.4% | 11.9% | 46.6% | 5.8% | | (+/-)% | 0.62 | 0.74 | 0.83 | 1.21 | 1.28 | | PE | 9.6% | 11.3% | 9.9% | 13.5% | 13.3% | | PB | 23.08 | 19.33 | 17.28 | 11. ...

Core Viewpoint - The oil shipping sector has shown strong performance since early 2026, with a cumulative increase of over 20%, positioning it as a leading sector in the A-share market amid rising prices [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The leading oil shipping company, China Merchants Energy Shipping, has seen its stock price surpass the historical high set in 2007, nearly doubling from its low in 2025. Another major player, COSCO Shipping Energy, has also increased by nearly 50% from its 2025 low [5]. - The rise in stock prices for these leading companies aligns closely with the increase in oil shipping rates, which reached a five-year high in the fourth quarter of 2025 after hitting a multi-year low in July 2025 [5][7]. - In 2025, China Merchants Energy Shipping reported a net profit of 6-6.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17%-29%, with the fourth quarter net profit showing a significant increase of 55%-90% [7]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The oil shipping market is characterized by a cyclical nature, requiring positive changes in both supply and demand to initiate a new cycle. Currently, the supply side is influenced by the age of vessels and operational efficiency, with a significant portion of the fleet being older than 20 years [8][9]. - The global fleet of Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) is experiencing a decline in overall capacity, with older vessels facing operational inefficiencies and potential exit from compliant markets [9][12]. - On the demand side, the lifting of OPEC+ production cuts and increased production from countries like Brazil and Guyana have positively impacted oil shipping demand, extending average shipping distances and enhancing demand for oil transport [14][15]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The oil shipping industry is showing signs of entering a new upward cycle, supported by a tightening supply and recovering demand. Historical patterns suggest that significant price increases can occur when supply is reduced and demand increases simultaneously [15][19]. - The consolidation within the domestic oil shipping market has led to increased market concentration, with China Merchants Energy Shipping and COSCO Shipping Energy being the top players globally [17][19]. - The current geopolitical landscape emphasizes energy security, which adds intrinsic value to the oil shipping sector, further supported by the cyclical recovery in shipping rates [19].

Group 1 - The overall performance of the US dollar is weak, with the dollar index falling to around 99, leading to decreased investor confidence in dollar assets due to regional tensions [1] - Key variables affecting oil prices in 2026 include OPEC+ production cuts, macroeconomic policy shifts such as potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and escalating regional political risks that could trigger short-term oil price spikes [1] - The projected core price range for Brent crude oil in 2026 is $55-75 per barrel, while WTI is expected to be $50-70 per barrel, with volatility expected to narrow compared to 2025 [1] Group 2 - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index (399439) include major companies such as China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC, collectively accounting for 67.11% of the index [2] - The Penghua Oil ETF (159697) closely tracks the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index, reflecting the price changes of listed companies in the oil and gas sector on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The shipping and port sector experienced a rise of 1.07% on January 19, with Xiamen Port leading the gains, while the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4114.0, up 0.29% [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Xiamen Port (000905) closed at 13.60, up 5.59% with a trading volume of 510,700 shares and a transaction value of 690 million [1]. - COSCO Shipping Energy (600026) closed at 14.57, up 3.85% with a trading volume of 506,900 shares and a transaction value of 737 million [1]. - Strait Holdings (002320) closed at 11.08, up 3.84% with a trading volume of 610,700 shares and a transaction value of 673 million [1]. - China Merchants South Oil (601975) closed at 3.33, up 2.78% with a trading volume of 1,418,400 shares and a transaction value of 469 million [1]. - Haitong Development (603162) closed at 12.60, up 2.69% with a trading volume of 139,900 shares and a transaction value of 177 million [1]. Group 2: Capital Flow - The shipping and port sector saw a net inflow of 176 million from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 1.08 billion [2]. - Major stocks like COSCO Shipping Energy and Strait Holdings attracted significant net inflows of 78.63 million and 58.81 million respectively from institutional investors [3]. - Conversely, retail investors withdrew 38.70 million from COSCO Shipping Energy and 56.58 million from Strait Holdings, indicating a divergence in investor sentiment [3].

每经AI快讯，中远海能(01138.HK)再涨超5%，截至发稿，涨5.31%，报12.69港元，成交额1.4亿港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock of China Ocean Shipping Energy (01138) has risen over 5%, reaching HKD 12.69, with a trading volume of HKD 140 million, driven by rising oil prices and increased demand for VLCCs due to geopolitical tensions [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - According to Clarkson, oil prices have surged significantly as geopolitical tensions escalate, with VLCC Middle East route WS increasing for several consecutive days, now at 88, leading to TCE exceeding USD 60,000 per day [1] - The report from Zhongyin Securities indicates that tensions in Iran have caused a rapid increase in risk premiums for the Strait of Hormuz, with VLCC daily earnings doubling to USD 68,000 in just one week [1] Group 2: Supply Chain and Demand - The sharp decline in Venezuelan oil exports has compelled Chinese buyers to shift their sourcing to the Middle East and Brazil for heavy crude oil, resulting in increased demand for long-haul shipping [1] - The short-term support for tanker freight rates is attributed to this increased demand, while future trends will depend on whether sanctions are lifted [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. (中远海能) has risen over 5%, reaching HKD 12.69, driven by increasing oil prices and heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - According to Clarkson, oil prices have surged significantly due to escalating tensions, with VLCC Middle East route WS rising continuously, now at 88, leading to TCE exceeding USD 60,000 per day [1] - Zhongyin Securities reported that the risk premium in the Strait of Hormuz has rapidly increased due to the tense situation in Iran, with VLCC daily earnings doubling to USD 68,000 in just one week [1] Group 2: Supply Chain Impacts - The sharp decline in Venezuelan oil exports has compelled Chinese buyers to shift their procurement towards heavy crude oil from the Middle East and Brazil, resulting in increased demand for long-haul shipping [1] - The short-term support for tanker freight rates is evident, but future trends will depend on whether sanctions are relaxed [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil shipping sector [10]. Core Insights - Since the beginning of the year, VLCC freight rates have rebounded significantly due to the release of cargo and an increase in floating storage, leading to a tight supply-demand situation that drives up rates. The oil shipping industry is characterized as cyclical, with a focus on the marginal effects of industry cycle changes [2][5]. - Looking ahead to 2026, geopolitical fluctuations are expected to create "demand surprises," alongside a global crude oil production increase that will boost oil shipping demand and alleviate supply concerns. The U.S. crackdown on Venezuela's oil exports has led to a phase of compliance for Venezuelan oil exports, while increased geopolitical tensions in Iran also present bullish options [2][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the supply-demand balance, with a projected increase in oil tanker supply of 1.5% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2026, indicating that the combination of "demand surprises" and inventory replenishment will mitigate supply concerns. The report reaffirms recommendations for COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy Shipping [2][5]. Summary by Sections Oil Shipping - VLCC freight rates have surged by 86.7% to $111,000 per day, driven by geopolitical developments and increased cargo availability. The sentiment among shipowners has improved significantly due to these factors [7][16]. - The report notes that the oil shipping sector is experiencing a recovery after a period of stagnation, with demand driven by increased oil production from South America and OPEC, as well as a rebound in Chinese imports [20][22]. - The compliance of Venezuelan oil exports is projected to increase oil shipping turnover by 1.3%, while Iranian compliance could lead to a 4.4% increase in demand [26][34]. Logistics and Transportation - The report highlights a decline in domestic and international passenger traffic due to the timing of the Spring Festival, with domestic passenger volume down 3% year-on-year [6][46]. - The logistics sector is facing challenges with a 5.7% year-on-year decline in express delivery volume, attributed to seasonal factors and changes in demand structure [8]. Market Dynamics - The report discusses the cyclical nature of the oil shipping industry, emphasizing the need to monitor geopolitical developments and production cycles that can significantly impact demand and supply dynamics [20][36]. - The anticipated increase in global crude oil inventories and the potential for a replenishment cycle are seen as critical factors that could drive demand for oil shipping in the near future [36][38].

格隆汇1月19日丨根据联交所最新权益披露资料显示，2026年1月12日，中远海能(01138.HK)获BlackRock, Inc.在场内以每股均价11.4548港元增持好仓3183.2 万股，涉资约3.65亿港元。 | 股份代號: | 01138 | | --- | --- | | 上市法國名稱: | 中遠海運能源運輸股份有限公司 - H | | 日期 (日 / 月 / 年): | 19/12/2025 - 19/01/2026 | 增持后，BlackRock, Inc.最新持好仓数目为7681.403万股，持好仓比例由3.47%上升至5.93%。 | 表格序號 | 大股東/董事/最高行政人員名 作出披露的 買入 / 賣出或涉及的 每股的平均價 | | | 持有權益的股份數目 佔已發行的 有關事件的日期 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 股份數目 | 原因 | | (請參閱上述 *註 有投票權股(日/月/年) * | | | | | | | 産 份自分比 | | | STATULAR CONSTITUTION CONSULTION CONSULTIO ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the transportation industry, indicating a positive outlook for specific sectors such as shipping and logistics [2]. Core Insights - The shipping sector is experiencing a significant increase in oil transportation rates due to heightened sanctions from the US and EU against Iran and Venezuela, leading to strong market sentiment among shipowners [6][17]. - The infrastructure sector is advised to focus on individual stock selections, particularly in stable cash flow assets like ports, which are currently undervalued [19]. - The aviation industry is expected to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics and lower fuel prices in 2026, marking a potential recovery year for profitability [25]. - The express delivery sector is projected to see a gradual improvement in competition and profitability, with a focus on major players like SF Express and Zhongtong Express [21]. Shipping Sector Summary - Oil transportation rates have surged significantly due to geopolitical tensions, with VLCC TD3C-TCE reaching $116,000 per day, a notable increase of 10.8% from the previous week [12][49]. - The dry bulk market is showing signs of seasonal decline, with the BDI index reporting a drop of 7.2% [16][48]. - Recommendations include focusing on oil tanker and dry bulk stocks such as COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy [17]. Infrastructure Sector Summary - Weekly data indicates a 17.3% increase in truck traffic volume, while rail freight has seen a 10.3% increase week-on-week [19][18]. - The report suggests investing in highway assets like Anhui Expressway, which are expected to provide stable returns [19]. Express Delivery Sector Summary - The express delivery industry saw a 13.7% year-on-year growth in business volume for 2025, with December showing a slowdown to 2.6% [20][21]. - Major companies are expected to benefit from operational adjustments, with SF Express projected to achieve faster profit growth in 2026 [21]. Aviation Sector Summary - The aviation sector is currently in a transitional phase, with passenger volumes showing a 3.6% year-on-year decline, but a potential recovery is anticipated in 2026 due to improved market conditions [25][22]. - The report emphasizes monitoring the impact of the Spring Festival travel season and geopolitical factors on oil prices [25]. Logistics Sector Summary - The logistics sector is experiencing stable air freight prices, with the TAC Shanghai outbound air freight price index remaining flat week-on-week [26]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring cross-border transport volumes and short-haul freight rates [26].