兴发集团 20251212 摘要 兴发集团 2025 年前三季度营收 237.81 亿元，同比增长 7.8%；归母净 利润 11.18 亿元，同比略增。第三季度营收和归母净利润环比分别增长 接近 24%和 42%，显示增长势头。 矿石采选业务毛利率高达 75%，贡献近一半利润，计划到"十五五"末 产能提升至 1,300 万吨。特种化学品和农药业务收入均约 40 亿元，利 润贡献显著。新能源材料板块加速扭亏，预计 2026 年全年盈利。 有机硅行业协同提价，草甘膦价格波动大但预期明年旺季补库存将带动 上涨，这两个周期性产品预计明年对公司业绩产生积极影响。肥料业务 受出口配额影响承压，但公司预计明年情况不会更差。 磷肥市场座谈会提出保供稳价措施，短期内可能抑制硫磺价格，但长期 看，受国际因素影响，硫磺价格仍可能保持高位。预计 2026 年磷肥出 口时间窗口将后移，国家加强国内供应保障。 磷酸铁产能持续扩张，现有 10 万吨产能已满负荷，明年 1 月和 7 月将 分别新增 5 万吨和 10 万吨产能。与比亚迪签订每年 8 万吨磷酸铁锂代 工协议，保障稳定收益。 麻坪磷矿已投产，预计 2026 年产能达 60%-80 ...

Group 1 - The current spring plowing preparation for fertilizers is at a critical stage, with a focus on stabilizing the supply and price of phosphate fertilizers [1] - A meeting was held to analyze the phosphate fertilizer market situation and discuss measures for supply assurance and price stabilization [1][3] - There is a consensus among key phosphate fertilizer production and circulation enterprises on the need for enhanced supply and price control measures [3] Group 2 - Recent fluctuations in the phosphate fertilizer market have negatively impacted winter storage and spring plowing preparations, attributed to rising production costs and increased short-term demand [3] - Recommendations include maintaining high production rates without reducing output, avoiding exports until August 2026, and ensuring domestic market supply [3] - Industry associations are urged to guide enterprises in conducting sales at reasonable prices and to prevent hoarding and price gouging [3] Group 3 - Sulfur prices have surged significantly, reaching a near ten-year high of 4115 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of nearly 200% [4] - China is the largest sulfur importer, with approximately 50% of its consumption relying on imports, and the sulfur production for 2024 is projected at 11.07 million tons [4] - The rise in sulfur prices poses challenges for the stability of the domestic fertilizer market, especially as the spring plowing season approaches [4][5] Group 4 - The recent spike in sulfur prices is primarily due to global supply shortages and rising external prices, with Russia's production being significantly affected [5] - The average import price of sulfur in China increased from $175.79/ton in January to $314.94/ton in October, marking a 79.21% increase [5] - The increase in sulfur prices has led to a rise in industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate prices, which saw a monthly increase of approximately 500 yuan/ton [5]

Core Insights - The chemical industry is entering a favorable phase driven by demand, value, and supply dynamics [5][6][7] - Global supply constraints and the exit of European capacities are expected to enhance the market environment for the chemical sector [7] Demand Drivers - Key opportunities identified in various sectors include: - Gas turbine upstream: companies like Zhenhua Co., Yingliu Co., Longda Co., and Wanze Co. [5] - Refrigerants and fluorinated liquids: companies such as Juhua Co., New Zhoubang, and Runhe Materials [5] - Energy storage supply chain: including Chuanheng Co., Xingfa Group, Yuntianhua, Batian Co., and others [5] - Semiconductor materials: companies like Yanggu Huatai, Wanrun Co., Dinglong Co., and others [5] Value Drivers - Potential for increased dividend yields in sectors such as: - Coal chemical: Hualu Hengsheng, Luxi Chemical, and Baofeng Energy [6] - Oil refining: Hengli Petrochemical, Satellite Chemical, and Sinopec [6] - Phosphate fertilizers: Yuntianhua, Yuntu Holdings, and others [6] Supply Drivers - Domestic anti-involution policies and the exit of European production capacities are expected to support the chemical industry: - PTA and polyester filament: companies like Xin Fengming and Tongkun Co. [7] - Tire manufacturing: including Sailun Tire, Zhongce Rubber, and others [7] Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - Selected companies with profit forecasts include: - Zhenhua Co. (Net profit forecast for 2025: 6.04 billion, PE: 21.8) [8] - Yingliu Co. (Net profit forecast for 2025: 4.08 billion, PE: 42.7) [8] - Longda Co. (Net profit forecast for 2025: 1.06 billion, PE: 34.9) [8] - Wanze Co. (Net profit forecast for 2025: 2.37 billion, PE: 32.9) [8] - Juhua Co. (Net profit forecast for 2025: 48.14 billion, PE: 24.4) [8] Industry Cycle Insights - The chemical industry is expected to enter a new cycle, with demand recovery and supply-side reforms driving growth [14][21] - The chemical price index has shown signs of recovery, indicating a potential upturn in the market [20][21]

Investment Direction 1: Dividend Strategy - Recommended companies include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) with an expected Brent oil price range of $60-70 per barrel in 2026 [2][3] - CNOOC is committed to maintaining a dividend payout ratio of no less than 45% from 2025 to 2027, while PetroChina benefits from domestic natural gas market reforms [2][3] Investment Direction 2: Capital Allocation to Undervalued Chemical Leaders - Recommended companies include Wanhua Chemical, Baofeng Energy, Satellite Chemical, and Hualu Hengsheng, which are expected to benefit from industry barriers related to cost, technology, and market [2][3] - The report suggests prioritizing capital allocation to chemical ETFs and leading companies as their performance is expected to stabilize [2][3] Investment Direction 3: Price Increases Driven by Downstream Demand - Traditional demand sectors such as food additives, pesticides, and fertilizers are highlighted, with companies like New Hope Liuhe and Jiangshan Chemical expected to benefit from stable growth in demand [2][3] - Emerging demand in phosphorous and fluorine chemicals is driven by the needs of new energy battery and AI cooling applications, with companies like Chuanheng Chemical and Juhua Co. being key players [2][3] Investment Direction 4: Domestic Anti-Competition Driving Price Increases - The report emphasizes the focus on large refining and chemical companies such as Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical, which are expected to benefit from anti-competitive measures in the domestic market [2][3] - The organic silicon sector is entering the end of its expansion cycle, with major companies like Sinan Silicon Material adjusting industry operating rates [2][3] - The soda ash industry is facing capacity controls and the need to phase out outdated production, with companies like Boyuan Chemical under observation [2][3] Oil Price Analysis - The report anticipates a Brent oil price range of $60-70 per barrel in 2026, with a slight oversupply expected [11][12] - OPEC+ has postponed production increases for Q1 2026, indicating a cautious approach to market conditions [11][12] - The report highlights geopolitical factors, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S.-Venezuela relations, which may impact oil supply dynamics [12][13] Three Major Oil Companies Insights - CNOOC is focused on increasing reserves and production while reducing costs, while PetroChina is benefiting from natural gas market reforms [34][36] - Sinopec is concentrating on domestic refining and chemical anti-competition developments [34][36] - The overall profitability of the three major oil companies is expected to be supported by the anticipated oil price stabilization [34][36]

兴福电子此前在业绩说明会上表示，在全球半导体产业链复苏，集成电路国产化替代加速等经济环境推 动下，公司迎来了良好发展机遇，核心产品电子级磷酸、电子级硫酸、电子级双氧水销量增长强劲，功 能湿电子化学品品类不断丰富，业绩中枢保持稳健增长。 扩产能加码核心业务 业绩稳健增长，兴福电子(688545.SH)拟大手笔优化产业布局。 12月9日晚间，兴福电子发布公告，拟投资4.8亿元建设4万吨/年电子级磷酸项目，进一步完善公司在半 导体湿电子化学品领域的产业布局。 长江商报记者注意到，兴福电子作为湖北磷化工巨头兴发集团（600141）(600141.SH)下属电子化学品 业务的独立上市平台，在国内半导体领域电子级磷酸产品的市场占有率接近七成，并保持逐年提升趋 势。 业绩方面，2025年前三季度，公司实现营收10.63亿元，同比增长26.67%；归母净利润1.65亿元，同比 增长24.67%。 兴福电子表示，通过在宜昌新材料产业园布局新项目，公司能够实现抵近目标市场的战略布局，进一步 放大产品规模，推动公司加快高质量发展。 产业布局进一步完善 同日，兴福电子还发布公告，为进一步拓展产品品类、优化产业布局，公司拟以自有资金4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is experiencing significant price increases and supply chain adjustments due to rising raw material costs and strong demand, particularly in the energy storage and electric vehicle sectors [3][4][5]. Industry Trends - Dejia Energy announced a 15% price increase for its battery products starting December 16 due to rising production costs from upstream raw materials [3]. - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (CATL) and other leading companies are securing long-term agreements to lock in upstream capacity and supply chains, emphasizing the importance of capacity acquisition for future growth [3][4]. - The lithium battery supply chain is currently characterized by a "full production and sales" state, with companies like Penghui Energy and Tianji Co. reporting strong demand and rising prices for their products [4]. Market Demand - Global power battery installation reached 811.7 GWh in the first three quarters of this year, a 34.7% increase from the previous year, while the energy storage market saw a 90.7% year-on-year growth [5]. - The rapid growth in renewable energy installations and the expansion of AI data centers are driving increased demand for energy storage solutions [5]. Long-term Contracts - The industry is witnessing a surge in long-term contracts, with significant agreements such as a 10-year strategic partnership between Haibosi and CATL for a minimum of 200 GWh of procurement [6]. - Other notable contracts include a collaboration between Hicharge Energy and CRRC Zhuzhou Electric Locomotive Research Institute for at least 120 GWh of energy storage products [6]. Price Dynamics - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has surged to 92,750 RMB per ton, a 23% increase from the previous month, while the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has exceeded 180,000 RMB per ton [4]. - The tight supply and high demand have led to longer delivery times, with some companies reporting that delivery schedules extend into the first half of next year [4]. Technological Advancements - The industry is undergoing a "quality upgrade" driven by technological advancements, with companies like CATL launching fifth-generation lithium iron phosphate batteries that improve energy density and cycle life [9][10]. - High-density lithium iron phosphate products are becoming a focus, with expectations that their market share will increase significantly by 2026 [9]. Capacity Expansion - Companies are accelerating capacity expansion to meet growing demand, with Fulin Precision Engineering planning to invest 4 billion RMB to build a new production line for lithium iron phosphate [8]. - Dragon Power Technology is also raising funds to expand production capacity in response to customer needs [8]. Globalization Efforts - Leading companies are pursuing global expansion strategies, with firms like Hunan YN planning production capacity in Spain and Dragon Power Technology nearing full production at its Indonesian facility [10]. - The industry is shifting from scale competition to value competition, aiming for high-quality development as new products are launched and recycling systems are improved [10].

Industry Overview - Phosphate rock is a key upstream raw material, with yellow phosphorus and phosphoric acid as important intermediates, and downstream products primarily used in agriculture and industry [3][4] - The phosphate chemical industry chain includes phosphate rock and sulfur as upstream materials, with phosphoric acid produced through various processes [4] Resource End - China ranks second globally in phosphate rock reserves, with significant deposits located in Yunnan, Hubei, Sichuan, and Guizhou [6] - The total phosphate rock reserves in China are approximately 3.69 billion tons, with a low average grade of 16.85%, indicating over-exploitation and resource wastage [9][10] Production Capacity - Domestic phosphate rock production is the highest globally, but there has been a trend of decreasing output since 2018 [7] - Major phosphate rock producers include Hubei, Guizhou, Yunnan, and Sichuan, with a total production capacity of 1,450 million tons by Yuntianhua and 950 million tons by Guizhou Kaipin [11] Product Demand - Approximately 60% of phosphate rock is used for producing phosphate fertilizers, with a growing demand for high-efficiency and high-value utilization [13] - The main phosphate fertilizers include monoammonium phosphate (MAP) and diammonium phosphate (DAP), which are essential for crop growth [14][15] Phosphoric Acid Production - The phosphoric acid industry in China has a low concentration of production capacity, with a total capacity of 618 million tons, including 270 million tons of thermal phosphoric acid and 348 million tons of wet phosphoric acid [25] - The wet phosphoric acid production process is gaining traction due to its lower energy consumption and environmental impact compared to thermal methods [24][27] Environmental Considerations - The production of yellow phosphorus is characterized by high energy consumption and pollution, with limited new capacity being added [18] - The treatment and utilization of by-products such as phosphogypsum and fluorosilicic acid are becoming critical for the sustainable development of the phosphate chemical industry [32] Future Outlook - The industry is expected to focus on expanding the production capacity of wet phosphoric acid and functional phosphate salts, moving towards a more refined and specialized manufacturing approach [36] - The demand for feed-grade phosphate salts is anticipated to grow due to the increasing scale of aquaculture and livestock farming in China [37]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in sulfur prices has reached a nearly ten-year high, significantly increasing cost pressures for downstream industries such as phosphate fertilizers, which are crucial for food security in China [1][2]. Group 1: Sulfur Price Trends - Sulfur prices have been on the rise since last year, with a notable spike in October 2023. As of December 5, the price of granular sulfur at the Yangtze River port reached 4,115 RMB/ton, marking a nearly 200% year-on-year increase [1]. - The average import price of sulfur in China rose from $175.79/ton in January to $314.94/ton in October, reflecting a 79.21% increase [2]. - Recent contracts from Qatar, Kuwait, and the UAE for December sulfur have reached FOB $495/ton, surpassing historical highs [3]. Group 2: Impact on Downstream Industries - Sulfur is primarily used to produce sulfuric acid, with phosphate fertilizers being the largest consumer, accounting for over half of sulfur consumption [3]. - The price of industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate (MAP) has surged since November, with an increase of approximately 500 RMB/ton, leading to a current average price of around 6,500 RMB/ton, a year-on-year increase of 12.07% [3]. - The domestic sulfuric acid market average price reached 930 RMB/ton by the end of November, up 124% from the beginning of the year [3]. Group 3: Company Responses and Market Adjustments - Yuntianhua has called for measures to mitigate the impact of rising sulfur costs, ensuring sufficient supply of phosphate fertilizers and stabilizing market prices [1]. - The phosphate fertilizer industry is expected to see a reduction in production capacity utilization, projected to drop to 50.86%, a decrease of 5.8 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The rising sulfur prices have prompted the titanium dioxide industry to initiate its sixth round of price increases this year, with leading companies raising prices by up to 700 RMB/ton [4]. Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The domestic sulfur market is anticipated to experience a volatile upward trend, with no new domestic sulfur production facilities planned and tight import conditions expected to persist [4]. - The demand for sulfur is likely to remain strong as phosphate fertilizer production resumes and winter storage needs increase [4]. - Global sulfur production is expected to grow slowly due to supply constraints, particularly in high-sulfur crude oil regions like the Middle East [5].

Demand Side - The demand for phosphate rock in China is projected to be 11,320 million tons in 2024, with expectations of 11,802 million tons and 12,414 million tons in 2025 and 2026 respectively, resulting in an actual incremental demand of 482 million tons and 612 million tons [2] - Emerging demand from the energy storage sector is expected to drive the phosphate chemical industry, with the incremental demand for phosphate rock from energy storage batteries estimated at 393 million tons and 431 million tons for 2025 and 2026 respectively [2] - Traditional demand for phosphate fertilizers is expected to remain weak due to rising raw material prices, with a low likelihood of recovery in phosphate fertilizer demand in 2025 and 2026 [2] Supply Side - In 2024, China's phosphate rock capacity, effective capacity, and output are projected to be 19,447 million tons, 11,916 million tons, and 11,353 million tons respectively, with expected capacities of 21,732 million tons and 24,762 million tons in 2025 and 2026 [3] - The supply of phosphate rock is significantly affected by environmental safety incidents, leading to a large gap between planned and actual production capacities [3] - The phosphate iron industry is experiencing long-term overcapacity, with effective capacity and output for phosphate iron in 2024 estimated at 426 million tons and 205 million tons respectively, and expected to increase to 499 million tons and 540 million tons in 2025 and 2026 [3] Price Outlook - The operating rate for phosphate rock capacity in 2024 is expected to be 58%, with effective capacity operating at 95%, and projected to balance supply and demand in 2025 and 2026 [4] - Low-grade phosphate rock prices may face slight pressure, while high-grade phosphate rock prices are expected to remain elevated [4] - The phosphate iron market is anticipated to experience tight supply, with effective capacity operating rates expected to improve from 48% in 2024 to 60% and 80% in 2025 and 2026 respectively [4] Investment Recommendations - Companies with integrated phosphate rock and phosphate iron production capabilities are recommended, including Tianqi Materials, Hunan YN, and Zhongwei Co [5] - Companies with phosphate iron production and rich phosphate rock resources are expected to benefit significantly from rising phosphate iron prices, including Chuanheng Co, Xingfa Group, and Batian Co [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongwu Securities highlights the expected growth in demand for phosphate rock driven by emerging sectors, while traditional demand is projected to decline. The overall supply and demand dynamics for phosphate rock and iron phosphate are analyzed for the years 2024 to 2026 [1][2][3]. Demand Side - Phosphate rock demand in China is projected to be 11,320 million tons in 2024, with expectations of 11,802 million tons and 12,414 million tons in 2025 and 2026 respectively. The actual increase in demand is estimated at 482 million tons and 612 million tons [1]. - Emerging sectors, particularly energy storage and power batteries, are expected to drive demand for phosphate rock, with an increase of 393 million tons and 431 million tons in 2025 and 2026 respectively. Iron phosphate is anticipated to contribute significantly to this demand [1]. - Traditional demand for phosphate fertilizers is expected to weaken due to rising raw material prices, with a forecasted decline in phosphate fertilizer production in early 2025 [1]. - Iron phosphate demand is projected to reach 214 million tons in 2024, increasing to 325 million tons and 449 million tons in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with significant contributions from energy storage [1]. Supply Side - Phosphate rock production capacity in China is expected to be 19,447 million tons in 2024, with projections of 21,732 million tons and 24,762 million tons for 2025 and 2026. Effective capacity and production are also expected to increase correspondingly [2]. - The supply of phosphate rock is significantly impacted by environmental safety incidents, leading to a gap between planned and actual production capacity [2]. - The iron phosphate industry is characterized by long-term overcapacity, with effective capacity and production expected to rise from 426 million tons and 205 million tons in 2024 to 499 million tons and 540 million tons in 2025 and 2026, respectively [2]. Price Outlook - The operating rate for phosphate rock capacity is projected to be 58% in 2024, with expectations of 57% and 54% in 2025 and 2026. High-grade phosphate rock prices are expected to remain elevated, while low-grade prices may face slight pressure [3]. - The iron phosphate market is anticipated to experience tight supply conditions, with operating rates expected to improve significantly in 2025 and 2026, indicating a potential supply gap [3]. Recommended Companies - Companies with phosphate iron and phosphate rock layouts are recommended, including Tianci Materials, Hunan YN, and Zhongwei Co. [4]. - Integrated chemical companies with phosphate iron production and phosphate rock resources are expected to benefit from rising phosphate iron prices, with suggested companies including Chuanheng Co., Xingfa Group, and others [4].