证券日报网讯1月12日，兴发集团（600141）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，产业化方面，公司黑 磷制备技术已实现百公斤级连续化稳定生产，百吨级生产线具备快速建成能力，同时产品制造成本显著 下降，从经济性角度已具备商业化条件。应用研发方面，基于当前高质量、低成本的黑磷制备能力，公 司前瞻布局未来潜力巨大的应用领域，合作科研机构及企业数量从2024年末的30余家扩大至2025年末近 90家。近期公司与合作伙伴在航天材料领域取得重大科研成果，将黑磷下游应用领域从磷碳负极材料、 光电子芯片、生物医药和催化剂等领域进一步扩大。商业应用方面，黑磷-钯催化剂已在兴瑞公司双氧 水生产中实现工业化应用，氢效最高提升近20%；黑磷净味催化剂已通过美的集团（000333）企业标准 认证，标志着相关技术产业化与市场应用取得重要进展。2025年公司对外供应黑磷产品近200公斤，同 比增长超210%。 ...

Core Insights - The chemical industry is expected to experience a recovery in profitability in 2026, marking a new starting point for supply-demand rebalancing, driven by anti-involution policies and advancements in new productive forces such as AI and robotics [2][5]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The chemical industry faced a downturn in profitability and valuation in 2025, but signs of stabilization and recovery are anticipated in 2026 [2]. - The peak of capital expenditure in the chemical sector has passed, with fixed asset investment turning negative in the second half of 2025, indicating the end of the capacity expansion cycle [5][14]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for chemicals is expected to gradually turn positive in 2026 after a prolonged period of decline [14]. Group 2: Investment Themes - Capital expenditure is decreasing, and leading companies like Wanhua Chemical are expected to see a recovery in profitability as they reduce capital spending and increase their global market share in MDI [5]. - The anti-involution policy is reshaping supply dynamics, with a focus on quality development and the exit of outdated capacities, benefiting companies with innovative capabilities and export advantages [5]. - New materials are driving demand growth in traditional chemicals, with companies like Dinglong Technology and Anji Technology positioned to benefit from domestic substitution in high-end materials [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Chemical prices have been under pressure, with the chemical product price index declining approximately 8.8% in 2025, but stock prices in the sector have rebounded by 33.3% [10][16]. - The operating rates of mainstream chemical products are showing signs of weakness, with inventory levels varying significantly across different products [17][18]. - The supply-demand balance for phosphate rock remains tight, with stable prices for high-grade phosphate rock, while the market for phosphate fertilizers is influenced by policy and demand fluctuations [46][43]. Group 4: Global Trends - The global chemical supply is shifting towards China, which has become the largest chemical producer, while European chemical production faces challenges due to high energy costs [31][33]. - The restructuring of supply chains due to tariff disturbances is prompting companies to adapt, with a focus on overseas expansion for leading chemical firms [26][22]. - The anti-involution policies are expected to enhance industry cash flow and promote sustainable development by curbing disorderly expansion and prioritizing profitability [40].

Group 1 - The glyphosate concept index declined by 0.02%, ranking among the top declines in the concept sector, with companies like Hebang Biotechnology, Jiangshan Shares, and Xingfa Group experiencing significant drops [1] - Among the companies in the glyphosate sector, 9 stocks saw price increases, with notable gains from Nuo Shun (up 4.20%), Li Er Chemical (up 3.45%), and Jiang Tian Chemical (up 2.26%) [1][3] Group 2 - The glyphosate concept sector experienced a net outflow of 234 million yuan, with 13 stocks seeing net outflows, and 5 stocks exceeding 10 million yuan in outflows, led by Hebang Biotechnology with a net outflow of 134 million yuan [2] - Other companies with significant net outflows include Jiangshan Shares (57.89 million yuan), Hongtaiyang (29.72 million yuan), and Xin'an Shares (23.04 million yuan) [2] - Conversely, the companies with the highest net inflows included Li Er Chemical (40.21 million yuan), Nuo Shun (18.77 million yuan), and Zhongnong Lihua (3.39 million yuan) [2]

格隆汇1月12日丨兴发集团(600141.SH)在互动平台表示，产业化方面，公司黑磷制备技术已实现百公斤 级连续化稳定生产，百吨级生产线具备快速建成能力，同时产品制造成本显著下降，从经济性角度已具 备商业化条件。应用研发方面，基于当前高质量、低成本的黑磷制备能力，公司前瞻布局未来潜力巨大 的应用领域，合作科研机构及企业数量从2024年末的30余家扩大至2025年末近90家。近期公司与合作伙 伴在航天材料领域取得重大科研成果，将黑磷下游应用领域从磷碳负极材料、光电子芯片、生物医药和 催化剂等领域进一步扩大。商业应用方面，黑磷-钯催化剂已在兴瑞公司双氧水生产中实现工业化应 用，氢效最高提升近20%；黑磷净味催化剂已通过美的集团企业标准认证，标志着相关技术产业化与市 场应用取得重要进展。2025年公司对外供应黑磷产品近200公斤，同比增长超210%。 ...

化工板块今日（1月12日）深度回调，反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）开盘后迅速走弱， 而后持续低位震荡，截至发稿，场内价格跌1.21%。 成份股方面，磷化工、氟化工、锂电等板块部分个股跌幅居前。截至发稿，和邦生物大跌超5%，兴发 集团、巨化股份、三美股份等多股跌超3%，拖累板块走势。 | | | 分时 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 日 周 ▼ | | | | | | F9 盘前盘玩 图加 九转 测试 工具 (6 2 > | | 化工ETF O | | | 516020 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0.92 | | | | | 516020(化工ETF) 10:54 价 0.896 源跌 -0.011(-1.21%) 均价 0.900 成交量 975 IOPV 0.8973 | | | | | 0.896 | | | -0.011 -1.21% | | 0.914 | | | | | | | | | | SSE CNY 10:54:5 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the chemical industry [2][3] Core Insights - The macroeconomic outlook for the chemical industry indicates a stable increase in oil demand due to global economic recovery and tariff adjustments, with Brent oil prices expected to remain in the range of $55-70 per barrel [2][3] - The report highlights the potential for price increases in the organic silicon sector, driven by supply constraints and rising demand ahead of the Lunar New Year [2] - The report suggests focusing on key sectors such as industrial silicon, PVC, and phosphorus, as well as companies like Xinjiang Tianye and Xingfa Group, which are expected to benefit from differentiated electricity pricing policies in Shaanxi Province [2][3] Summary by Sections Chemical Macro Outlook - Oil supply is tightening due to OPEC+ production delays and peak shale oil output, while demand is stabilizing with an expected increase in oil prices [3] - Coal prices are expected to stabilize at a low level, alleviating pressure on downstream industries [3] - The U.S. is likely to accelerate natural gas export facility construction, potentially lowering import costs [2][3] Price Trends - Brent crude oil prices increased by 3.7% to $63.02 per barrel, while WTI prices rose by 2.7% to $58.84 per barrel [9] - The PPI for all industrial products decreased by 1.9% year-on-year but increased by 0.2% month-on-month, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activity [5] Sector Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the textile chain, agricultural chemicals, export-related chemical products, and companies benefiting from "de-involution" policies [2] - Specific companies to watch include: - For textiles: Lu Xi Chemical, Tongkun Co., and Hengli Petrochemical - For agricultural chemicals: Hualu Hengsheng and Baofeng Energy - For export-related chemicals: Juhua Co. and Wanhu Chemical [2][15] Key Company Valuations - The report includes a valuation table for key companies, indicating their market capitalizations and projected earnings [15][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the chemical industry [3][4]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic outlook for the chemical industry indicates a stable increase in oil demand due to global economic recovery, with Brent crude oil expected to remain in the range of $55-70 per barrel [3][4]. - The report highlights the implementation of differentiated electricity pricing for high-energy-consuming industries in Shaanxi Province, which may accelerate capacity elimination in these sectors [3][4]. - The organic silicon industry is expected to see price increases, with DMC prices projected to rise to 14,000 yuan per ton due to tightening supply and pre-holiday inventory buildup [3][4]. - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing significant growth, with a notable increase in satellite launches and approvals for new satellite constellations [3][4]. Summary by Sections Macro Economic Analysis - Oil supply is constrained due to OPEC+ production delays and peak shale oil output, while demand is stabilizing with tariff adjustments and economic improvements [3][4]. - Coal prices are expected to stabilize at a low level, alleviating pressure on downstream industries [3][4]. - Natural gas exports from the U.S. are anticipated to increase, potentially lowering import costs [3][4]. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the differentiated electricity pricing policy in Shaanxi, which could lead to accelerated capacity elimination in high-energy-consuming industries [3][4]. - The organic silicon sector is highlighted for its potential price increases due to supply constraints and rising demand [3][4]. - The commercial aerospace industry is set for rapid growth, with significant satellite launches expected in the coming years [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors benefiting from the "anti-involution" policies, including textiles, agriculture, and export-related chemicals [3][4]. - Specific companies to watch include: - Textile Chain: LUXI Chemical, Tongkun Co., and others [3][4]. - Agriculture Chain: Hualu Hengsheng, Baofeng Energy, and others [3][4]. - Export-related Chemicals: Juhua Co., Wanhu Chemical, and others [3][4]. - Emphasis is placed on key materials for growth, particularly in semiconductor and battery materials [3][4].

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 1月9日，兴发集团在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司"1万吨/年电池级五硫化二磷 及配套3万吨/年超纯黄磷项目"建设进展顺利，预计7月建成投产。该产品系硫化物固态电池电解质关键 前驱体材料，目前公司已与包括数家新能源企业在内的多家潜在客户建立了合作意向。 ...

证券日报网讯1月9日，兴发集团（600141）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司当前暂无磷化铟产 能，但在磷化铟的关键原材料电子级红磷方面研发进展顺利。依托电子级黄磷和电子级磷烷的技术优势 和产业链优势，公司目前正在抓紧推进电子级红磷生产制备技术研发，若取得成功，将实现磷化铟用关 键原材料电子级红磷的国产化替代。 ...

Group 1 - The glyphosate concept sector declined by 0.44%, ranking among the top declines in the concept sector, with major declines seen in companies like Xin'an Chemical, Lier Chemical, and Jiangshan Chemical [1] - Among the companies in the glyphosate sector, eight stocks saw price increases, with Jiangtian Chemical, Taihe Co., and Nuofengxin leading the gains at 0.58%, 0.52%, and 0.46% respectively [1] - The main capital outflow from the glyphosate sector today was 146 million yuan, with 14 stocks experiencing net outflows, and six stocks seeing outflows exceeding 10 million yuan [1] Group 2 - Xin'an Chemical had the highest net capital outflow of 51.38 million yuan, followed by Nuofengxin, Xingfa Group, and Runfeng Co. with outflows of 19.73 million yuan, 14.59 million yuan, and 12.70 million yuan respectively [1] - The stocks with the highest net capital inflow included Yangnong Chemical and Ando Mai A, with inflows of 0.67 million yuan and 0.06 million yuan respectively [2] - The trading volume for Xin'an Chemical was 3.74%, while Lier Chemical had a turnover rate of 4.12% [1][2]