证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2024 年 09 月 09 日 巨化股份（600160.SH） 持续看好制冷剂进入景气周期，看好公司含氟精细化学品方面布局 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------| | 财务指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入（百万元） | 21,489 | 20,655 | 24,192 | 27,257 | 30,195 | | 增长率 yoy （ % ） | 19.5 | -3.9 | 17.1 | 12.7 | 10.8 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 2,381 | 944 | 2,518 | 3,467 | 4,532 | | 增长率 yoy （ % ） | 114.7 | -60.4 | 166.8 | 37.7 | 30.7 | | ROE （ % ） | 15.2 | 5.9 | 13.8 | 16.2 | 17.7 | | EPS 最 ...

浙江巨化股份有限公司 关于 2024 年半年度业绩说明会召开情况的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 ●前瞻性陈述的风险提示： 本次会议交流中涉及的未来计划、市场发展战略、市场预测等前瞻性陈述不 构成本公司对投资者的实质承诺，投资者及相关人士均应当对此保持足够的风险 认识，并且应当理解计划、预测与承诺之间的差异，注意投资风险。 浙江巨化股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2024 年 9 月 5 日 14：00- 15：00 通过上海证券交易所上证路演中心以网络互动方式召开了公司 2024 年 半年度网上业绩说明会。现将有关情况公告如下： 一、本次说明会召开情况 股票代码：600160 股票简称：巨化股份 公告编号：临 2024-29 公司于 2024 年 8 月 23 日披露了《关于召开 2024 年半年度业绩说明会的公 告》（公告编号：临 2024-25），于 2024 年 9 月 5 日 14：00-15：00 通过上海证 券交易所上证路演中心以网络互动方式召开公司 2024 年半年度业绩说明会， ...

股票代码：600160 股票简称：巨化股份 公告编号：临 2024-28 浙江巨化股份有限公司 关于举办投资者接待日活动的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗 漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 为进一步加强与投资者沟通交流，解答投资者关心的各类问题，倾听投资者 的意见和建议，便于广大投资者全面、深入地了解浙江巨化股份有限公司（以下 简称"公司"）的生产经营情况，公司定于 2024 年 9 月 10 日以现场方式举行投 资者接待日活动。现将有关事项公告如下： 一、活动召开时间及地点 活动时间：2024 年 9 月 10 日下午 14:00-17:00 活动地点：浙江省衢州市柯城区 浙江巨化股份有限公司（公司办公大楼） 二、出席人员 公司总经理韩金铭先生、董事会秘书刘云华先生、财务负责人王笑明先生。 三、活动安排 投资者先参观公司展厅、厂区，然后与公司领导座谈交流。 四、投资者参加方式 为了更好地安排本次活动，请有意参与本次活动的投资者于 2024 年 9 月 6 日 17:00 前，扫描下列二维码预约登记。由于接待规模限制，本次现场参观活动 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 12.08 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.65%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 794 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 73.97% [5][6]. - The increase in revenue is primarily attributed to the rise in product sales and prices, with specific segments such as refrigerants and fluorinated polymer materials showing notable performance [5][6]. - The company holds a leading market position in the production of fluorinated refrigerants, with a significant share of national quotas, which strengthens its competitive advantage [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 12.08 billion yuan, up 19.65% year-on-year, and a net profit of 794 million yuan, up 73.97% year-on-year [5][6]. - The sales gross margin and net margin for the first half of 2024 were 16.73% and 7.65%, respectively, reflecting an increase of 2.54 and 2.78 percentage points year-on-year [5][6]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from various segments in the first half of 2024 showed the following year-on-year changes: fluorinated raw materials (+4.00%), refrigerants (+36.59%), fluorinated polymers (-26.12%), and fluorinated fine chemicals (+107.91%) [5]. - The sales volume for refrigerants increased significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 302.59% in one category [5]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company possesses a unique operational model with national production quotas, holding 26.3% of the national quota for second-generation fluorinated refrigerants and 39.16% for third-generation refrigerants [5][6]. - The company is expanding its high-performance fluoropolymer product lines, which are expected to enhance its market position further [5][6]. Earnings Forecast - The expected EPS for 2024-2026 is projected to be 0.95, 1.23, and 1.43 yuan, respectively, with a reasonable valuation range of 25.65 to 28.50 yuan based on a PE ratio of 27-30 times [6][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company has shown significant growth in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2024, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 19.65% and a net profit increase of 70.31% [2][3] - The company benefits from a strong position in the refrigerant market, particularly with the implementation of production quotas for third-generation refrigerants starting in 2024, which is expected to enhance its competitive advantage [6][8] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 120.80 billion yuan, with a net profit of 8.34 billion yuan and a cash flow from operating activities of 6.05 billion yuan [2][3] - In Q2 2024, the company reported a revenue of 66.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.77% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20.86% [2][3] - The gross profit margin for Q2 2024 was 18.38%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.68 percentage points [5][6] Product Segment Performance - Refrigerants generated revenue of 23.34 billion yuan in Q2 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 47.35% [3][5] - The company holds a significant share of the production quotas for various refrigerants, including HFC-32 (44.99% of national quota) and HFC-125 (38.74% of national quota), solidifying its market leadership [6][8] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 240.61 billion yuan, 272.47 billion yuan, and 293.32 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 24.01 billion yuan, 28.56 billion yuan, and 33.62 billion yuan [8][23] - The expected price-to-earnings ratios for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 19.12, 16.07, and 13.65 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [8][23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][6][18]. Core Views - The company has entered a performance realization phase for refrigerants, with significant year-on-year growth in overall performance [2]. - In H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 12.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.65%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 834 million yuan, up 70.31% year-on-year [2]. - The report highlights that the refrigerant segment is the main profit contributor, while other segments like fluorochemical raw materials and fluoropolymer experienced a decline in revenue and profit [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the company reported revenue of 6.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.77% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20.86%. The net profit for the same period was 524 million yuan, up 55.35% year-on-year and 68.83% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The price increase of refrigerants contributed significantly to profit growth, with product prices rising year-on-year by 7.61 billion yuan, mainly from refrigerants (640 million) and petrochemical materials (121 million) [3]. Market Dynamics - The implementation of the third-generation refrigerant quota policy and the unexpected growth in air conditioning production (H1 2024 household air conditioning production totaled 112 million units, up 15.2% year-on-year) have supported the strong price increases of refrigerants [3]. - The report notes that the prices of R32, R125, R134a, and R143a refrigerants increased by 112%, 25%, 9%, and 88% respectively in H1 2024 [3]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued upward momentum in refrigerant prices, with expectations for sustained profit growth in subsequent quarters [3]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the refrigerant market, benefiting from pricing power and industry dynamics, despite some downward pressure from raw material price increases [3]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.43 billion yuan, 4.09 billion yuan, and 5.30 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 157.5%, 68.3%, and 29.7% [4][10]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 25.75 yuan per share, based on a 17x P/E ratio for 2025 [3][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [5][10]. Core Views - The company has significantly benefited from the price surge of second and third-generation refrigerants, leading to substantial growth in Q2 2024. The industry is entering a favorable cycle, and the company, as a leader in third-generation refrigerants, is expected to fully capitalize on this trend [4][10]. - The company achieved a revenue of 12.08 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.65%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 834 million yuan, up 70.31% year-on-year [10][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the company reported revenue of 6.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.77% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20.84%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 524 million yuan, up 55.35% year-on-year and 68.83% quarter-on-quarter [10]. - The company’s revenue for the first half of 2024 was 12.08 billion yuan, with a net profit of 834 million yuan, reflecting a strong performance in the refrigerant market [10][11]. Market Position - The company maintains a leading position in the third-generation refrigerant quota, with significant production quotas for R32, R134A, R125A, and R143A, which account for 37.4% of the total quota [10]. - The company has expanded its product offerings through the acquisition of Feiyuan Chemical, enhancing its position in the fluorine chemical industry [10]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with projected EPS of 0.95, 1.31, and 1.57 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively. The target price is set at 28.87 yuan, based on a PE ratio of 30.39 for 2024 [10][11]. - The company is also focusing on high-value fluorine chemical products and has successfully implemented the industrialization of fourth-generation fluorinated refrigerants [10].

证 2024 年 08 月 24 日 研 报 告 公 司 研 究 究 氟化工龙头业绩随制冷剂景气度上行 —巨化股份（600160.SH）公司事件点评报告 买入(维持) 事件 分析师：张伟保 S1050523110001 zhangwb@cfsc.com.cn | --- | --- | |----------------------|------------| | 基本数据 | 2024-08-23 | | 当前股价（元） | 17.68 | | 总市值（亿元） | 477 | | 总股本（百万股） | 2700 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 2700 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 13.9-25.83 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 477.06 | 市场表现 -20 0 20 40 60 80 (%) 巨化股份 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《巨化股份（600160）：2024H1 业绩大幅增长，看好制冷剂景气度 提升》2024-07-10 2、《巨化股份（600160）：氟化工 一体化龙头，受益行业景气度提 升》2024-06-28 巨化股份发布半年度报告：202 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock performance in the coming months [13]. Core Views - The company has significantly improved its performance in H1 2024, with a revenue of 12.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.65%, and a net profit of 834 million yuan, up 70.31% year-on-year [9]. - The implementation of the third-generation refrigerant quotas and increased downstream market demand are expected to support the recovery of refrigerant prices and profitability [9]. - The company is focusing on R&D and the development of high-value-added fluorochemical products, with a planned R&D expenditure of 1.008 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a 0.7% increase year-on-year [10]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.413 billion yuan, 3.537 billion yuan, and 4.692 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.89 yuan, 1.31 yuan, and 1.74 yuan [10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 12.08 billion yuan and a net profit of 834 million yuan, with Q2 figures showing a revenue of 6.61 billion yuan and a net profit of 524 million yuan, marking significant year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth [9]. - The average prices of key products such as refrigerants and fluorinated chemicals have shown notable changes, with refrigerant prices increasing significantly since the beginning of 2024 [9]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a leader in the refrigerant quota market, benefiting from the implementation of new regulations and increased demand from the appliance sector [9]. - The average price changes for various products indicate a favorable market environment, with refrigerant prices rising by 53.85% to 105.80% for different types [9]. R&D and Investment - The company plans to invest 3.409 billion yuan in fixed assets in 2024, a 48.67% increase year-on-year, to enhance its production capabilities and product offerings [10]. - R&D efforts are being prioritized, with 154 projects planned for 2024, and significant progress has been made in developing new fluorinated materials [10]. Profit Forecast - The company is expected to see a steady increase in net profits over the next three years, with projections indicating a strong recovery and growth trajectory [11][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has experienced significant growth in its half-year performance, with the refrigerant market cycle expected to continue [1] - The company reported a total revenue of 12.08 billion yuan in 1H24, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.65%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 834 million yuan, up 70.31% year-on-year [1] - The growth in revenue and profit is primarily driven by the increase in both price and volume of refrigerants, with average selling prices rising by 22% year-on-year in 1H24 [1][3] - The company is investing 2.19 billion yuan in four major projects to enhance its high-end fluorochemical product offerings, which are expected to contribute significantly to future profits [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H24, the company achieved a net profit of 834 million yuan, a 70.31% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 524 million yuan in 2Q24, up 55.35% year-on-year and 68.83% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The average selling price of refrigerants in 1H24 was 24,300 yuan per ton, a 22% increase year-on-year, with sales volume reaching 161,400 tons, a 12% increase year-on-year [1] - The company expects net profits for 2024-2026 to be 2.36 billion, 3.37 billion, and 4.22 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 150.0%, 42.7%, and 25.2% [3] Market Outlook - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing recovery in the refrigerant market, particularly with the price increases of its core products [1][3] - The company holds a significant market share in the production quotas for HFCs, which are expected to see price increases due to supply constraints and steady demand [1][3] Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to invest in high-performance fluorinated materials to enhance its product structure and profitability, with several projects expected to be completed by 2025 [2] - The projects include high-quality meltable fluororesin, high-end fluoropolymer, and high-performance barrier materials, which are projected to add substantial annual net profits [2]