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帮主郑重拆解:13家券商10月核心金股,中长线该盯这几家
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-10 02:00
各位朋友,我是帮主郑重,知道大家开盘前想把券商金股的逻辑摸得更透——这13家券商选的票不少,但咱们做中长线不用全看,挑出"逻辑硬、基本面 稳"的核心标的就行,我帮大家捋了4个关键板块里最值得关注的,咱们一个个说。 其实这13家券商的金股逻辑,本质上和咱们做长线的思路一致——不追热点,只看"业绩有没有支撑、行业有没有前景"。上面这几家,都是在各自领域有核 心优势的,哪怕今天开盘后有回调,只要基本面没变化,反而可能是加仓的机会。 需要我把这些公司的近期业绩预告和机构持仓变化再整理一下,帮你更精准判断基本面吗? 再到医药板块,药明康德被8家券商放进金股名单,逻辑也很清晰。一方面是全球医药研发的需求在回暖,跨国药企的外包订单最近多了不少,药明康德作 为CXO领域的龙头,能直接"喝汤";另一方面,它在国内的创新药服务业务也在扩,比如和多家生物科技公司合作开发肿瘤新药,这部分业务增速能到30% 左右。对咱们来说,医药板块本来就适合长线布局,这种有全球业务支撑的公司,抗风险能力比小公司强得多。 然后是新能源板块,虽然昨天稀土、有色有点分化,但宁德时代还是被7家券商看好。核心逻辑有两个:一是最近锂电池实施出口许可证管理,看似 ...
金融工程定期:券商金股解析月报(2025年10月)-20251009
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-10-09 11:25
2025 年 10 月 09 日 金融工程研究团队 魏建榕(首席分析师) 证书编号:S0790519120001 张 翔(分析师) 证书编号:S0790520110001 傅开波(分析师) 证书编号:S0790520090003 高 鹏(分析师) 证书编号:S0790520090002 苏俊豪(分析师) 证书编号:S0790522020001 胡亮勇(分析师) 证书编号:S0790522030001 王志豪(分析师) 证书编号:S0790522070003 《开源量化评论(23)-"金股+"组 合的量化方案》-2021.4.26 《开源量化评论(32)-券商金股的内 部收益结构》-2021.8.29 券商金股解析月报(2025 年 10 月) ——金融工程定期 魏建榕(分析师) 高鹏(分析师) weijianrong@kysec.cn 证书编号:S0790519120001 gaopeng@kysec.cn 证书编号:S0790520090002 10 月份券商金股特征解析 10 月份中航沈飞、立讯精密、兆易创新、洛阳钼业、兴业银锡、安琪酵母、巨 人网络等金股推荐次数靠前。10 月份券商金股已经陆续发布,我们 ...
金融工程月报:券商金股 2025 年 10 月投资月报-20251009
Guoxin Securities· 2025-10-09 08:29
证券研究报告 | 2025年10月09日 金融工程月报 券商金股 2025 年 10 月投资月报 核心观点 金融工程月报 券商金股股票池上月回顾 2025 年 9 月,江波龙、协创数据、精智达等券商金股股票的月度上涨幅度 靠前。 2025 年 9 月,华安证券、华龙证券、方正证券收益排名前三,月度收益分 别为 17.45%、15.17%、14.38%,同期偏股混合型基金指数收益 5.52%, 沪深 300 指数收益 3.20%。 2025 年以来,东北证券、华鑫证券、国元证券收益排名前三,年度收益分 别为 93.33%、90.50%、69.67%,同期偏股混合型基金指数收益 35.37%, 沪深 300 指数收益 17.94%。 券商金股股票池中选股因子表现 最近一个月,日内收益率、BP、波动率表现较好,总市值、SUE、单季度 超预期幅度表现较差; 今年以来,总市值、单季度营收增速、分析师净上调幅度表现较好,波动率、 预期股息率、BP 表现较差。 券商金股股票池本月特征 截至 2025 年 10 月 9 日,共有 42 家券商发布本月金股。在对券商金股股票 池进行去重后,总共有 304 只 A 股。 从绝对占 ...
【国信金工】券商金股10月投资月报
量化藏经阁· 2025-10-09 07:08
"券商金股"组合既能够体现总量分析师(如宏观、策略、金融工程等团队)自上而下的行业、板块及风格配置能力,又能够反映行业分析师自下而上的选股能力, 是券商研究所研究实力核心竞争力的体现。 一、券商金股股票池上月回顾 2025年9月,江波龙、协创数据、精智达等券商金股股票的月度上涨幅度靠前。 2025年9月,华安证券、华龙证券、方正证券收益排名前三,月度收益分别为 17.45%、15.17%、14.38%,同期偏股混合型基金指数收益5.52%,沪深300指数收 益3.20%。 2025年以来,东北证券、华鑫证券、国元证券收益排名前三,年度收益分别为 93.33%、90.50%、69.67%,同期偏股混合型基金指数收益35.37%,沪深300指数 收益17.94%。 二、券商金股股票池中选股因子表现 最近一个月,日内收益率、BP、波动率表现较好,总市值、SUE、单季度超预期 幅度表现较差; 今年以来,总市值、单季度营收增速、分析师净上调幅度表现较好,波动率、预 期股息率、BP表现较差。 三、券商金股股票池本月特征 截至2025年10月9日,共有42家券商发布本月金股。在对券商金股股票池进行去重 后,总共有304只A ...
金融工程月报:券商金股2025年10月投资月报-20251009
Guoxin Securities· 2025-10-09 06:46
证券研究报告 | 2025年10月09日 金融工程月报 券商金股 2025 年 10 月投资月报 核心观点 金融工程月报 券商金股股票池上月回顾 2025 年 9 月,江波龙、协创数据、精智达等券商金股股票的月度上涨幅度 靠前。 2025 年以来,东北证券、华鑫证券、国元证券收益排名前三,年度收益分 别为 93.33%、90.50%、69.67%,同期偏股混合型基金指数收益 35.37%, 沪深 300 指数收益 17.94%。 券商金股股票池中选股因子表现 最近一个月,日内收益率、BP、波动率表现较好,总市值、SUE、单季度 超预期幅度表现较差; 今年以来,总市值、单季度营收增速、分析师净上调幅度表现较好,波动率、 预期股息率、BP 表现较差。 券商金股股票池本月特征 截至 2025 年 10 月 9 日,共有 42 家券商发布本月金股。在对券商金股股票 池进行去重后,总共有 304 只 A 股。 从绝对占比来看,本期券商金股在电子(16.11%)、机械(9.13%)、有色金属 (8.17%)、电力设备及新能源(6.97%)、基础化工(6.25%)行业配置较高。 从相对变化来看,本期券商金股在有色金属(+2 ...
“金股”竞技场|中航证券押中龙头股,开源证券“8荐8涨”
Da Zhong Ri Bao· 2025-09-05 05:18
Group 1 - In August, the A-share market strengthened, leading to positive returns for most of the recommended stocks by brokerages, with 244 out of 287 stocks recommended showing price increases [1][3] - The average gain of the recommended stocks in August was positive, with notable performances from brokerages such as Kaiyuan Securities and AVIC Securities [1][5] - The top three performing stocks in August were Huasheng Tiancai (600410.SH) with a gain of 115.11%, followed by Hanwujing (688256.SH) with a gain of 110.36%, and Siquan New Materials (301489.SZ) with a gain of 100.66% [3][4] Group 2 - As of September 4, over 40 brokerages had recommended 285 stocks for September, with Kaiying Network (002517.SZ) and Deepin Technology (300454.SZ) being the most frequently recommended [2][8] - Kaiying Network was recommended by multiple brokerages due to its upcoming product cycle and stable mid-year performance, reporting a revenue of 2.578 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.89%, and a net profit of 950 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.41% [9][10] Group 3 - The technology sector performed exceptionally well in August, with 7 out of the top 10 recommended stocks belonging to this sector [5][6] - Conversely, the healthcare sector underperformed, with half of the stocks in the top 10 largest declines being from this industry, including Yifang Biotechnology (688382.SH) which fell by 19.62% [6][7] Group 4 - Among the stocks recommended for September, Deepin Technology had a high price-to-earnings ratio of 240.05, indicating a significant valuation compared to other recommended stocks [12] - Deepin Technology reported a revenue of 3.009 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11.16%, but also reported a net loss of 228 million yuan, which was a 61.54% increase in loss compared to the previous year [12]
【国信金工】券商金股9月投资月报
量化藏经阁· 2025-09-01 07:09
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the performance of the "brokerage golden stocks" and their ability to track the performance of mixed equity fund indices effectively, showcasing the analytical capabilities of brokerage firms [2][37]. - In August 2025, the top-performing stocks in the brokerage golden stock pool included Huasheng Tiancai, Hanwujing-U, and Siquan New Materials, with significant monthly increases [1][3]. - The top three brokerages by monthly returns were Kaiyuan Securities, AVIC Securities, and China Merchants Securities, with returns of 26.42%, 25.08%, and 24.07% respectively, outperforming the mixed equity fund index and the CSI 300 index [6][10]. Group 2 - The brokerage golden stock pool showed strong performance in factors such as quarterly net profit growth, quarterly ROE, and quarterly revenue growth, while factors like BP, intraday return, and expected dividend yield performed poorly [21][23]. - As of September 1, 2025, there were 39 brokerages publishing golden stocks, resulting in a total of 301 unique A-shares after deduplication, with significant allocations in the electronics, machinery, and basic chemical industries [23][27]. - The brokerage golden stock performance enhancement portfolio achieved an absolute return of 15.49% for the month and 34.01% year-to-date, outperforming the mixed equity fund index by 3.59% and 5.72% respectively [33][38]. Group 3 - The article highlights the interaction between brokerage analysts and public fund managers, indicating that the recommendations from brokerage analysts can significantly influence market attention towards certain stocks [13][27]. - The article also discusses the identification of stocks with relatively low market attention that have been recommended as golden stocks, suggesting potential investment opportunities [29][30]. - The performance of the brokerage golden stock industry portfolio showed excess returns in the electronics, electric new energy, and basic chemical industries for the month, while the year-to-date performance highlighted excess returns in electronics, automotive, and agriculture sectors [17][23].
金融工程月报:券商金股2025年9月投资月报-20250901
Guoxin Securities· 2025-09-01 06:53
Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: Broker Gold Stock Performance Enhancement Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to optimize the selection of stocks from the broker gold stock pool to outperform the median of active equity funds[39][43]. - **Model Construction Process**: - The model uses the broker gold stock pool as the stock selection space and constraint benchmark. - It employs portfolio optimization to control deviations in individual stocks and styles from the broker gold stock pool. - The industry distribution of all public funds is used as the industry allocation benchmark. - The model's detailed construction method can be found in the report "Broker Gold Stock Full Analysis - Data, Modeling, and Practice" published on February 18, 2022[39][43]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model has shown stable performance historically, consistently outperforming the active equity fund index from 2018 to 2022, ranking in the top 30% of active equity funds each year[12][39]. Model Backtesting Results Broker Gold Stock Performance Enhancement Portfolio - **Absolute Return (Monthly)**: 15.49%[5][42] - **Excess Return Relative to Active Equity Fund Index (Monthly)**: 3.59%[5][42] - **Absolute Return (Year-to-Date)**: 34.01%[5][42] - **Excess Return Relative to Active Equity Fund Index (Year-to-Date)**: 5.72%[5][42] - **Ranking in Active Equity Funds (Year-to-Date)**: 30.38% percentile (1054/3469)[5][42] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: Single Quarter Net Profit Growth Rate - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the growth rate of net profit in a single quarter[3][28]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the net profit for the current quarter. - Compare it to the net profit of the same quarter in the previous year. - The formula is: $ \text{Net Profit Growth Rate} = \frac{\text{Current Quarter Net Profit} - \text{Previous Year Same Quarter Net Profit}}{\text{Previous Year Same Quarter Net Profit}} \times 100\% $ - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor has performed well recently[3][28]. Factor Name: Single Quarter ROE - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the return on equity for a single quarter[3][28]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the net income for the quarter. - Divide it by the average shareholders' equity for the quarter. - The formula is: $ \text{ROE} = \frac{\text{Net Income}}{\text{Average Shareholders' Equity}} \times 100\% $ - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor has performed well recently[3][28]. Factor Name: Single Quarter Revenue Growth Rate - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the growth rate of revenue in a single quarter[3][28]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the revenue for the current quarter. - Compare it to the revenue of the same quarter in the previous year. - The formula is: $ \text{Revenue Growth Rate} = \frac{\text{Current Quarter Revenue} - \text{Previous Year Same Quarter Revenue}}{\text{Previous Year Same Quarter Revenue}} \times 100\% $ - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor has performed well recently[3][28]. Factor Backtesting Results Single Quarter Net Profit Growth Rate - **Performance**: This factor has shown good performance recently[3][28]. Single Quarter ROE - **Performance**: This factor has shown good performance recently[3][28]. Single Quarter Revenue Growth Rate - **Performance**: This factor has shown good performance recently[3][28].
金融工程定期:券商金股解析月报(2025年9月)-20250901
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-09-01 06:16
Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: "All Stocks Portfolio" - **Model Construction Idea**: This model aggregates all broker-recommended stocks ("golden stocks") and evaluates their performance as a portfolio[18][21] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Collect all broker-recommended stocks for the month 2. Weight the stocks within the portfolio based on the number of recommendations by brokers 3. Exclude non-A-share stocks and Hong Kong-listed stocks to focus solely on A-shares[18] - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates strong performance, significantly outperforming benchmark indices such as CSI 300 and CSI 500[18][21] 2. Model Name: "Newly Added Stocks Portfolio" - **Model Construction Idea**: Focuses on stocks newly added to the broker-recommended list, as they tend to exhibit better performance compared to repeated recommendations[18][23] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Identify stocks newly added to the broker-recommended list for the month 2. Construct a portfolio weighted by the number of broker recommendations 3. Exclude non-A-share stocks and Hong Kong-listed stocks[18] - **Model Evaluation**: Newly added stocks outperform repeated recommendations, showcasing their superior return potential[18][23] 3. Model Name: "Repeated Stocks Portfolio" - **Model Construction Idea**: Focuses on stocks that have been repeatedly recommended by brokers across multiple months[18] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Identify stocks that were recommended in the previous month and continue to be recommended in the current month 2. Construct a portfolio weighted by the number of broker recommendations 3. Exclude non-A-share stocks and Hong Kong-listed stocks[18] - **Model Evaluation**: While the performance is positive, it is generally weaker compared to newly added stocks[18] 4. Model Name: "Optimized Golden Stocks Portfolio" - **Model Construction Idea**: Selects the top 30 newly added stocks with the highest earnings surprise factor (SUE factor) to construct an optimized portfolio[23] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Filter newly added stocks based on their earnings surprise factor (SUE factor) 2. Select the top 30 stocks with the highest SUE factor 3. Weight the portfolio based on the number of broker recommendations[23] - **Model Evaluation**: This optimized portfolio demonstrates superior performance compared to the "All Stocks Portfolio" and benchmark indices[23][25] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. All Stocks Portfolio - **August Return**: 13.6%[21] - **2025 YTD Return**: 33.5%[21] - **Annualized Return**: 13.7%[21] - **Annualized Volatility**: 23.6%[21] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 0.58[21] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 42.6%[21] 2. Newly Added Stocks Portfolio - **August Return**: 11.8%[21] - **2025 YTD Return**: 37.9%[21] - **Annualized Return**: 16.5%[21] - **Annualized Volatility**: 24.3%[21] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 0.68[21] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 38.5%[21] 3. Repeated Stocks Portfolio - **August Return**: 15.6%[21] - **2025 YTD Return**: 30.2%[21] - **Annualized Return**: 11.3%[21] - **Annualized Volatility**: 23.7%[21] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 0.48[21] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 45.0%[21] 4. Optimized Golden Stocks Portfolio - **August Return**: 19.6%[25] - **2025 YTD Return**: 37.6%[25] - **Annualized Return**: 22.3%[25] - **Annualized Volatility**: 25.5%[25] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 0.88[25] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 24.6%[25] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Earnings Surprise Factor (SUE Factor) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the degree to which a company's earnings exceed or fall short of market expectations, serving as a key indicator for stock selection[23] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the earnings surprise for each stock as the difference between reported earnings and consensus estimates 2. Normalize the earnings surprise to account for variations across stocks and industries 3. Rank stocks based on their normalized earnings surprise values[23] - **Factor Evaluation**: The SUE factor demonstrates strong predictive power, particularly in identifying high-performing newly added stocks[23] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. SUE Factor - **Performance**: The SUE factor is highly effective in selecting top-performing stocks within the newly added category, contributing to the superior returns of the Optimized Golden Stocks Portfolio[23]
8月7日券商今日金股:8份研报力推一股(名单)
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-08-07 08:17
Core Viewpoint - On August 7, securities firms issued "buy" ratings for over 20 A-share listed companies, focusing on sectors such as medical services, agriculture, home appliances, semiconductors, construction materials, fertilizers, and specialized equipment [1]. Group 1: Key Stocks Recommended by Securities Firms - WuXi AppTec (603259) received a "buy" rating from Zhongyou Securities, with an upward revision of its annual performance guidance, expecting revenues of 43.29 billion, 49.02 billion, and 55.85 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with a net profit of 14.91 billion, 13.88 billion, and 16.16 billion yuan [2][3]. - Zhong'an Shares (002891) was highlighted by Kaiyuan Securities for significant revenue and profit growth, with a focus on domestic sales [2]. - Haida Group (002311) is noted for its overseas expansion potential, with a report from Guoxin Securities emphasizing its status as a quality asset in the agriculture sector [3][4]. - Junshi Network (688475) was rated "buy" by Yuanyin Galaxy, citing strong growth in its smart home business [2]. - Chipone Technology (688521) showed improved profitability in Q2, with a report from Xinda Securities [2]. - Dongfang Yuhong (002271) is expected to reach a profitability turning point in the second half of the year, according to Zhongyou Securities [2]. - Haiguang Information (688041) received attention for its performance in the semiconductor sector [2]. - Cangge Mining (000408) was noted for stable profitability in potassium chloride and strong performance from its copper mine [2]. - Jereh Group (002353) reported a 37% year-on-year increase in net profit, exceeding expectations [2]. - Zhuozhao Dispensing (873726) received initial coverage for its diverse expansion in dispensing equipment [2]. Group 2: Overall Market Insights - The focus of securities firms on various sectors indicates a strategic interest in industries with growth potential, particularly in medical services and agriculture [1][4]. - The reports suggest that while "buy" or "increase" ratings are provided, they do not guarantee stock price increases, and investors should consider these ratings as references rather than definitive investment advice [4].