Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The express logistics sector shows resilient demand, with a "reverse involution" trend driving up express prices, enhancing corporate profitability. Long-term competition opportunities are expected in the e-commerce express sector [13] - The aviation sector is witnessing a recovery in performance, with demand bottoming out and supply tightening, creating a favorable environment for future earnings [13] - The shipping market is expected to benefit from the OPEC+ production increase cycle and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, enhancing the elasticity of VLCC freight rates [13] Summary by Sections Express Logistics - YTO Express emphasizes building a resilient supply chain and has set specific work plans for 2026 [4] - The State Post Bureau aims to address rural express violations as a priority in its 2026 initiatives [5] - The express logistics industry is seeing a price increase due to strong demand and improved competition dynamics [13] Aviation - Major airlines are forecasting significant performance improvements for 2025, with Southern Airlines and Hainan Airlines expected to turn profitable [6] - The Spring Festival travel season shows positive ticket booking trends, indicating strong demand [7] - The government is promoting service consumption growth, which includes transportation services [6][7] Shipping and Ports - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is tense, with potential impacts on oil shipping routes [8] - The dry bulk market is experiencing a "strong off-season" due to tight capacity and increased demand from regions like Brazil [9] - Container shipping rates have decreased, while oil tanker rates have generally increased [10][11] Road and Rail - National logistics operations are running smoothly, with slight declines in freight volumes reported [12] - Shenzhen International is expected to benefit from logistics park upgrades, providing performance elasticity [13] Overall Industry Performance - The transportation sector's performance has varied, with shipping and port indices showing positive trends, while express and aviation sectors have faced declines [18]

Group 1 - The 2026 Spring Festival travel season will start on February 2 and end on March 13, lasting for 40 days, with a total of 88,800 flights planned at Beijing Capital and Daxing airports, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 1.67% [1] - Air China plans to increase its fleet by 25 aircraft compared to last year, executing over 70,000 passenger flights during the Spring Festival, a 10.1% increase from 2025, with an average of 1,800 flights per day, an increase of 160 flights [1] - Air China will focus on key routes between major city clusters, maintaining high operational levels and covering nearly 50 domestic routes [1] Group 2 - In the western region, Air China will add over 500 flights covering popular tourist destinations such as Lijiang, Dali, and Xishuangbanna [2] - Eastern Airlines plans to deploy 822 passenger aircraft, including 14 domestic C919 aircraft, executing 125,000 flights during the Spring Festival, a year-on-year increase of about 3.6% [4] - Southern Airlines plans to operate over 126,000 passenger flights during the Spring Festival, with approximately 13,000 additional flights across more than 260 routes [4] Group 3 - Hainan Airlines expects to operate over 33,000 flights, transporting approximately 5.516 million passengers, with increased flight frequencies on major routes and tourist destinations [5] - Hainan Airlines will expand its international route network, adding several new international destinations from Beijing and Haikou compared to last year's Spring Festival [5]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The airline industry is showing signs of overall operational improvement, with a projected passenger transport volume of 770 million in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [3] - Aircraft utilization is expected to average 9.1 hours, an increase of 0.2 hours year-on-year, while the passenger load factor is projected to be 85.1%, up by 1.8 percentage points [3] Company Performance Highlights Hainan Airlines - Projected net profit attributable to shareholders for the year is between 1.8 billion to 2.2 billion yuan, with a non-recurring net profit of 900 million to 1.1 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [1] - Estimated Q4 net loss attributable to shareholders is between 645 million to 1.045 billion yuan, with a non-recurring net loss of 1.602 billion to 1.802 billion yuan [1] China Southern Airlines - Projected net profit attributable to shareholders for the year is between 800 million to 1 billion yuan, with a non-recurring net profit of 130 million to 190 million yuan, also indicating a turnaround from losses [1] - Estimated Q4 net loss attributable to shareholders is between 1.307 billion to 1.507 billion yuan, with a non-recurring net loss of 1.233 billion to 1.293 billion yuan [1] China Eastern Airlines - Projected net loss attributable to shareholders for the year is between 1.3 billion to 1.8 billion yuan, with a non-recurring net loss of 2.7 billion to 3.3 billion yuan, indicating a reduction in losses year-on-year [1] - Estimated Q4 net loss attributable to shareholders is between 3.403 billion to 3.903 billion yuan, with a non-recurring net loss of 4.105 billion to 4.705 billion yuan [1] Air China - Projected net loss attributable to shareholders for the year is between 1.3 billion to 1.9 billion yuan, with a non-recurring net loss of 1.9 billion to 2.7 billion yuan, indicating an increase in losses year-on-year [2] - Estimated Q4 net loss attributable to shareholders is between 3.17 billion to 3.77 billion yuan, with a non-recurring net loss of 3.544 billion to 4.344 billion yuan [2] Key Insights - The increase in income tax expenses for China Eastern Airlines and Air China is attributed to the reversal of deferred tax assets from prior deductible losses, impacting their net profit figures [3] - The upcoming Spring Festival travel season is expected to see a passenger volume of 95 million, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, with an estimated 780,000 flights to be operated, also up by 5% [4] Additional Considerations - The appreciation of the RMB against the USD is noted, with the exchange rate at 6.97 as of January 30, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.82% [4] - The long-term outlook for the airline industry remains positive due to slowing supply growth, high load factors, and expectations of reduced competition, suggesting potential for profit improvement [4] - Risks include macroeconomic downturns, rising oil prices, and exchange rate fluctuations [4]

此外，东航税前利润总额为2-3亿元，受所得税费用影响导致东航税后利润出现亏损：受21年经营利润亏损影 响，2021年三大航分别确认较大额度的未经抵消的递延所得税资产（未弥补税务亏损），根据报表披露21年国航/ 东航/南航确认额度分别为29.8/46.2/38.1亿元，根据税法约定，可抵扣暂时性差异形成的递延所得税资产要求在未 来5个纳税年度内能产生足够的应纳税所得额用以抵扣，意味着对于三大航而言需要在26年之前确认同等额度的所 得税费用，导致大航不得不在25年提前确认部分所得税费用，使得税后利润由正转负。 预计三大航均在25年提前确认15亿上下的所得税费用。 2、近期航空板块调整幅度较大，主要由于三方面原因：1）递延所得税问题逐步被市场认识，市场下修对2025年 业绩预期；2）地缘战争预期升温，油价同比大幅上涨，压制板块股价；3）中日航线摩擦持续，边际改善有限。 随着业绩预告最后一重利空落地，我们认为短期来看股价里面隐含的悲观预期得到了充分的释放；25年税后盈利 低于预期不改经营利润显著改善的趋势，预计26年开始行业的经营利润仍有望持续且显著的改善。 大航业绩预告落地，经营改善确认周期拐点 1、事件点评：三大 ...

Group 1: Company Announcements - The controlling shareholder of Jihua Group is planning a change in control, and the stock will be suspended from trading starting February 2, 2026 [1][2] - Fusheng Holdings' actual controller, chairman, and general manager have been detained, but the company states that operations remain normal [3] - Gree Electric has increased its share repurchase amount to between 1 billion and 1.5 billion yuan [14] Group 2: Performance Forecasts - Guizhou Airlines expects a net profit of 800 million to 1 billion yuan for 2025, marking a turnaround from losses [5] - Aobi Zhongguang forecasts a net profit of approximately 123 million yuan for 2025, indicating a significant increase from the previous year [6] - Sinopharm Group anticipates a net profit increase of 2767% to 3233% for 2025 [8] - Bojie Co. expects a net profit of 130 million to 160 million yuan for 2025, representing a growth of 484.16% to 618.97% [9] - Taiji Group forecasts a net profit of approximately 110 million yuan for 2025, an increase of about 313% [10] - Zhongji Xuchuang expects a net profit of 9.8 billion to 11.8 billion yuan for 2025, a growth of 89.50% to 128.17% [11] Group 3: Significant Contracts and Investments - Jerry Holdings' subsidiary signed a sales contract for gas turbine generator sets worth approximately 1.265 billion yuan [15] - Wanhu Chemical plans to invest 19.086 billion yuan in its subsidiary Wanhu Olefin Company to enhance operational control [17] - Funi Holdings intends to use up to 1.85 billion yuan of idle funds for cash management [17]

Investment Rating - The transportation industry is rated as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The logistics sector is experiencing significant growth, with Jiushi Intelligent achieving a hundredfold increase from 200 to 20,000 autonomous delivery vehicles over three years, in collaboration with Cainiao [3][15] - Global air freight demand is expected to grow steadily in 2025, with China Southern Airlines and Hainan Airlines projected to return to profitability [3][16] - The low-altitude economy is advancing from concept to reality, with eVTOL vertical take-off and landing points being established at landmarks like Guangzhou Tower and Baiyun Mountain [3][25] - The Chinese ship leasing market is developing multidimensionally, with steady growth in scale and efficiency, despite a slowdown in asset growth rate [3][26] - The Ministry of Transport held its first routine press conference for 2026, forecasting a total of 9.5 billion cross-regional passenger flows during the Spring Festival [3][28] Industry Dynamics - The Baltic Air Freight Price Index has decreased month-on-month and year-on-year, indicating a decline in air freight prices [4][30] - The domestic express delivery volume increased by 2.30% year-on-year in December 2025, while express delivery revenue rose by 0.70% [4][33] - The shipping and port sector shows mixed trends, with the domestic container shipping price index declining while dry bulk freight rates are rising [4][38] Investment Recommendations - Opportunities in the express logistics sector for international market expansion are recommended, with a focus on companies like SF Holding and Jitu Express [4] - The aviation sector is highlighted for investment opportunities driven by increased demand during the Spring Festival, recommending China National Aviation and China Southern Airlines [4] - The low-altitude economy and autonomous driving sectors are identified as trend-driven investment opportunities, recommending CITIC Heli and suggesting attention to Cao Cao Travel [4][5]

即日起至 2 月 7 日，海南航空启动首批航班转场三亚机场 T3 航站楼试运行 《中国民航报》、中国民航网 记者屈玲、张帆 报道：2026年2月1日，随着新海航海南航空HU7349航班的旅客在海南控股旗下三亚凤凰国际机场（以下简 称"三亚机场"）T3航站楼顺利完成值机、安检等全流程乘机手续，飞往重庆，标志着三亚机场T3航站楼即日起启动试运行。 即日起至2月7日，海南航空启动首批航班转场试运行，将三亚至重庆、济南的4条高频骨干航线往返航班转至三亚机场T3航站楼，以服务主流商务及旅游出 行需求。自2月8日起，海南航空所有三亚始发航班计划全面转场至三亚机场T3航站楼正式运行。 海南航空 HU7349 航班飞机（海南航空供图） 注：航班信息以实际查询为准 作为海南民航"十四五"时期的标志性扩容工程和海南自贸港机场群建设的重要先导性项目，三亚机场T3航站楼采用前列式布局与进出港混流模式，全面承载 国内航班保障功能，设有值机柜台40个、安检通道23条、登机廊桥7座（固定端），另外通过连廊与T1、T2航站楼衔接，实现三楼联动、一体化运行。 长期以来，海南航空始终重视并积极参与三亚航空市场的开拓与建设。在2025年冬航季，海 ...

中国国航、中国东航、南方航空、海航控股、华夏航空近日公布2025年年度业绩预告。报告期内，国 航、东航、南航三大航共减亏32.59亿至45.59亿元。南航和海航预计实现年度扭亏为盈，华夏航空净利 润同比扩大，东航亏损同比收窄，而国航亏损同比扩大。 具体来看，中国国航预计公司2025年度将出现亏损，归属于上市公司股东的净亏损约为人民币13亿元到 人民币19亿元，归属于上市公司股东扣除非经常性损益后的净亏损约为人民币19亿元到人民币27亿元。 中国东航预计2025年度归属于上市公司股东的净利润约为-13亿元至-18亿元。预计2025年度归属于上市 公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润约为人民币-27亿元至-33亿元。2025年，中国东航全年完成运输 总周转量279.81亿吨公里，旅客运输量近1.50亿人次，分别同比增长10.82%和6.68%，利润总额预计为 人民币2亿元至3亿元。 据南方航空公告，预计公司2025年度将实现扭亏为盈，实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为人民币8.00 亿元到人民币10.00亿元。对于业绩预增的原因，公告称，南方航空积极主动作为，抢抓市场机遇，精 准投放运力，优化客货经营布局，强化精益成 ...

南方航空海南分公司市场销售副经理 李胜卫：目前，我们在海南至北京、上海、广州、成都、杭州的航 线，增加宽体客机投入，已经达到1100多班次，后续将进一步增加海南市场运力投入。 除了航空公司以外，机场也升级了节日期间的服务。海口美兰国际机场增设过夜躺椅，充电座椅、自助 售货机等设施，满足旅客出行需求。 （央视财经《经济信息联播》）随着春节临近，海南即将迎来全岛封关运作后的首个春运，海南各机场 与航空公司提前联动，全力保障旅客出行顺畅。 记者了解到，2月13日前后，海南将迎来入岛客流高峰，北京、上海、广州等地飞往海南的机票已经趋 紧。面对客流压力，各航空公司纷纷加大海南市场运力投放，春运期间，南方航空在海南市场计划执行 约9600班次航班。 海南航空除了稳定执飞海口往返北京、广州，和三亚往返上海、重庆等城市的核心航线外，春运期间还 将开通海口—烟台—哈尔滨等跨区域新航线，加密海口至重庆、博鳌至北京等热门航线班次。 交通衔接方面，海口美兰国际机场、三亚凤凰国际机场联动高铁开设空铁联运专柜，并提供租车异地还 车等服务，构建立体交通网，支持旅客"多地联游"。 转载请注明央视财经 编辑：王昕宇 ...

Core Viewpoint - The performance forecast of the four major Chinese airlines shows significant divergence, with China Southern Airlines and Hainan Airlines expected to report profits, while Air China and China Eastern Airlines anticipate losses [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance Forecasts - Air China is expected to report a net loss of 1.3 billion to 1.9 billion yuan [1]. - China Southern Airlines anticipates a net profit of 800 million to 1 billion yuan, benefiting from its logistics assets and proactive market strategies [1]. - Hainan Airlines forecasts a net profit of 1.8 billion to 2.2 billion yuan, attributing its success to operational adjustments and the positive impact of the Hainan Free Trade Port [1]. - China Eastern Airlines expects a net loss of 1.3 billion to 1.8 billion yuan, although this loss is projected to narrow compared to the previous year [2]. Group 2: Operational Metrics and Industry Growth - In 2025, China's civil aviation industry is projected to achieve record-high transportation metrics, with a total turnover of 1,640.8 billion ton-kilometers and passenger transport volume of 770 million, reflecting year-on-year growth of 10.5% and 5.5% respectively [3]. - The comprehensive passenger load factor for the four airlines exceeded 80%, with China Southern Airlines at 85.74% and China Eastern Airlines at 85.86% [3]. - The Civil Aviation Administration of China forecasts continued growth in 2026, with expected transportation turnover of 1,750 billion ton-kilometers and passenger transport volume of 810 million [3].