1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The GDP growth in Q4 2025 was 4.5%, and the full - year growth target of 5% was achieved, meeting market expectations. The market will discuss the economic growth expectations for 2026 and the Two Sessions' target settings. For the bond market, the central bank's attitude is the key factor in 2026, and a total interest - rate cut is expected in Q2 [27]. - The central bank's resumption of bond - buying may be a long - term consideration, and the continuity of bond - buying is high. In 2026, the imbalance between supply and demand in the bond market needs attention, with the core being demand. The bond market still needs to consider the impacts of "imbalance between supply and demand, expectations of rising prices, and re - balancing of asset allocation due to capital diversion" [28]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Quick View - In December 2025, GDP at constant prices had a quarterly - on - quarterly growth of 4.5%, lower than the previous quarter's 4.8% and the same period last year's 5.4% [1]. - The manufacturing PMI in December 2025 was 50.1%, up from 49.8% in the previous month and the same as the same period last year [1]. - The non - manufacturing PMI for business activities in December 2025 was 50.2%, up from 50.0% in the previous month but lower than 52.2% in the same period last year [1]. - The monthly value of social financing scale in December 2025 was 2207.5 billion yuan, down from 3529.9 billion yuan in the previous month and 2853.7 billion yuan in the same period last year [1]. - Various monetary indicators such as M0, M1, M2, and new RMB loans also showed different trends in December 2025 compared with the previous month and the same period last year [1]. - CPI in December 2025 had a year - on - year growth of 0.8%, up from - 0.3% in the previous month and 0.1% in the same period last year; PPI was - 1.9%, up from - 2.3% in the previous month and the same period last year [1]. - The cumulative year - on - year growth of fixed - asset investment completion in December 2025 was - 3.8%, down from - 0.5% in the previous month and 3.2% in the same period last year [1]. - The cumulative year - on - year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods in December 2025 was 3.7%, down from 4.5% in the previous month but up from 3.5% in the same period last year [1]. - The year - on - year growth of export and import amounts in December 2025 was 6.60% and 5.70% respectively, down from 8.20% and 7.40% in the previous month and 10.67% and 0.84% in the same period last year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The National Development and Reform Commission is planning major high - tech projects for the 15th Five - Year Plan period, formulating an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 - 2030, and considering setting up a national - level merger and acquisition fund. It will also promote the expansion and quality improvement of the service industry [2]. - The LPR in January 2026 remained unchanged for the 8th consecutive month, with the 1 - year LPR at 3.0% and the 5 - year - plus LPR at 3.5% [2]. - Shanghai introduced 18 measures to enhance the influence of non - ferrous metal commodities and global pricing, including supporting settlement through the Commodity Clearing Link and opening up futures and options varieties [3]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the trading margin ratios and price limit ranges for copper, aluminum, gold, and silver futures contracts [3]. - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange Center adjusted the trading margin ratios and price limit ranges for international copper futures contracts [4]. - On January 20, 37 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 32 had negative basis, with significant differences in basis among different varieties [4]. 3.2.2 Metals - On the morning of January 21, New York gold futures exceeded $4780 per ounce, and domestic gold jewelry prices also increased, with some brands' pure gold prices exceeding 1450 yuan per gram [5]. - "Investment copper bars" have become popular recently, with a 1000 - gram copper bar costing 180 - 288 yuan in Shenzhen Shuibei Market [5]. - The Polish central bank approved a plan to buy up to 150 tons of gold, increasing its gold reserves to 700 tons [5]. - On January 19, the inventories of lead, tin, zinc, and copper in the London Metal Exchange reached new highs, while the inventories of cobalt and aluminum reached new lows [6]. - As of January 20, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, decreased by 0.37%, or 4.01 tons, to 1081.66 tons [6]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - During the 14th Five - Year Plan period, Shanxi produced 65 billion tons of coal, with an output of over 13 billion tons in 2025, an increase of 19 billion tons compared with the 13th Five - Year Plan [8]. - The first shipment of nearly 200,000 tons of Simandou iron ore arrived in China on January 17, enhancing global iron ore supply [8]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices increased by 85 yuan per ton from January 20, 24:00, due to rising international oil prices [9]. - The US government obtained 50 million barrels of oil from Venezuela and sold part of it on the open market [9]. - Venezuela officially launched the export of liquefied petroleum gas [9]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Brazil's corn and soybean exports in January 2026 are expected to be 3.45 million tons and 3.79 million tons respectively, higher than the previous week's forecasts, while soybean meal exports are expected to be 1.82 million tons, the same as the previous week [10]. - As of January 15, the EU's soft wheat exports in the 2025/26 season were 11.8 million tons, slightly lower than the same period last year [10]. - The US export inspection volumes of soybeans, wheat, and corn were 1,336,684 tons, 392,611 tons, and 1,483,622 tons respectively [11]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On January 20, the central bank conducted 324 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 34.6 billion yuan due to 358.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities [12]. 3.3.2 Key News - A package of policies to promote domestic demand through fiscal - financial coordination was introduced, including a 500 - billion - yuan special guarantee plan for private investment and loan interest - subsidy policies for small and medium - sized enterprises [13]. - The National Development and Reform Commission stated that in 2026, macro - policies will focus on strengthening the domestic cycle, expanding domestic demand, and promoting high - tech projects [13]. - The Ministry of Finance said that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, debt scale, and expenditure will remain at necessary levels, and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds will continue to be issued [14]. - The Ministry of Natural Resources and the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development introduced measures to support urban renewal [15]. - The preferential tax policies for community - based family services such as elderly care, childcare, and housekeeping were extended from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027 [16]. - The latest LPR remained unchanged for the 8th consecutive month since May 2025, and experts believe that the stable macro - economy is the main reason [17]. - Beijing's 2026 construction land supply plan was announced, with specific land allocations for commercial and affordable housing and a focus on urban renewal [18]. - Guangzhou is promoting legislation for the renewal of state - owned land housing, with a planned fixed - asset investment of 120 billion yuan for urban village renovation in 2026 [18]. - The Greenland crisis and fiscal pressure concerns led to a global bond market sell - off, with significant fluctuations in Japanese and US bond yields [18]. - The Japanese Finance Minister tried to calm the bond market, emphasizing the responsibility and sustainability of fiscal policies [18]. - All Japanese central bank observers predict that the benchmark interest rate will remain unchanged on Friday, and the government may intervene in the foreign exchange market if the yen depreciates [19]. - There were several bond - related events, including payment due dates and corporate management changes [19]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - China's bond market showed positive trends, with falling yields on spot bonds and rising prices of bond futures. The money market was generally stable, but the DR001 rate increased due to the tax period [20]. - The exchange - traded bond market had different performances among different bond types, with some bonds rising and some falling [21]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index and the Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index both declined, with significant differences in individual bond performances [22]. - Most money market interest rates and Shibor short - term rates increased [22]. - Bank - to - bank repurchase fixed - rate and silver - bank repurchase fixed - rate also showed upward trends [23]. - The winning bid yields and multiples of financial bonds issued by the Agricultural Development Bank and the National Development and Reform Commission were announced [23][24]. - European and US bond yields generally increased [24][25]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 33 basis points to 6.9603 at 16:30, and the central parity rate rose 45 basis points to 7.0006 [26]. - At the New York close, the US dollar index fell 0.50% to 98.55, and most non - US currencies rose [26]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that the central bank's attitude is crucial for the 2026 bond market, and a total interest - rate cut is expected in Q2 [27]. - Shenwan Hongyuan Fixed - Income believes that the central bank's bond - buying is likely to be continuous, and in 2026, attention should be paid to the imbalance between supply and demand in the bond market, with the interest rate level expected to be lower in the first half and higher in the second half [28]. 3.4 Stock Market Key News - On Tuesday, the A - share market adjusted, with a style shift from high - valuation growth sectors to value sectors. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.01%, and the trading volume increased [30]. - The Hong Kong stock market continued to adjust, with technology stocks leading the decline and real - estate stocks rising. Southbound funds had a net purchase of nearly HK$3.7 billion [31]. - As of January 20, over 500 A - share companies had disclosed 2025 performance forecasts, with about 200 expecting growth and over 100 expecting a net profit increase of over 100%. However, some sectors such as photovoltaic, liquor, and pig farming faced performance pressure [31]. 3.5 Today's Reminders - On January 21, 230 bonds will be listed, 122 bonds will be issued, 82 bonds will be settled, and 207 bonds will pay principal and interest [29].

Core Insights - The prolonged suspension of Guanghui Baoxin due to failure to disclose its 2024 annual performance has led to significant repercussions, including a sharp decline in stock price and loss of dealership authorizations from major brands like BMW [1][2][3] Group 1: Company Situation - Guanghui Baoxin has been suspended from trading since April 1, 2025, due to the inability to publish audited financial results within the required timeframe [1] - The company reported a 17.88% year-on-year decline in revenue and a staggering 119.78% drop in net profit for the first half of 2024, with a gross margin of only 0.46% [2] - The resignation of the auditing firm, RSM, has further complicated the company's efforts to resume trading, as it cited disagreements over audit fees and delays in document preparation [1][2] Group 2: Industry Context - The automotive dealership model is under significant pressure due to the rapid rise of electric vehicles, with a penetration rate exceeding 42% in 2024, leading to a decline in traditional fuel vehicle sales [2] - Over 4,419 4S stores closed in 2024, indicating a broader trend of traditional dealerships struggling to adapt to the changing market dynamics [3] - Regulatory bodies are increasing scrutiny on the automotive industry, with over 50 companies suspended for delayed financial disclosures, particularly in the real estate and automotive sectors [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Guanghui Baoxin must meet three conditions to resume trading: complete the 2024 financial audit, appoint a new auditor, and demonstrate ongoing operational viability [4] - The termination of BMW's authorization, which accounted for over 60% of the company's revenue, poses a significant challenge to its recovery prospects [4] - The company risks following the path of its parent company, Guanghui Automotive, which was delisted from the A-share market due to continuous low stock prices [4]

Core Viewpoint - Guanghui Automotive's announcement regarding the acquisition of "Huiche Debt" is seen as a limited self-rescue measure amid its debt crisis, representing another clear case of small-scale cash repayment in the delisted convertible bond market [1] Group 1: Acquisition Details - The company plans to acquire the "Huiche Debt" held by bondholders at a price of 100.47 yuan per bond, with a maximum purchase limit of 100 bonds per account, allowing for a maximum payout of 10,047 yuan per account [1][3] - As of November 3, 2025, the remaining principal amount of "Huiche Debt" is 1.885 billion yuan, with 62,700 bondholders, of which 62,200 have confirmed their holdings, accounting for approximately 99.58% of the total remaining bonds [3] - The acquisition will only proceed with the consent of the relevant bondholders; those who do not explicitly agree will not have their bonds purchased [4] Group 2: Debt Restructuring Strategy - The acquisition aims to prioritize the interests of small investors, reduce the number of bondholders, and alleviate future debt restructuring pressures [4] - The company has disclosed a long-term debt disposal plan, which includes cash repayment at a discount to face value, stock repayment, trust debt settlement, and extending the maturity of the bonds [4] - The acquisition will use the company's own funds, which may reduce its available cash and assets for debt servicing, potentially impacting its debt repayment capacity [4] Group 3: Market Implications - Small-scale cash repayment is intended to restore credit gaps and is seen as a strategy to gain support from numerous small bondholders, thereby increasing the likelihood of successful restructuring plans [6] - Historical cases show that small bondholders often receive full repayment, while larger amounts may be treated differently, indicating a trend towards protecting smaller investors during corporate restructuring [6] - The overall credit risk in the convertible bond market is expected to rise, with a focus on the quality of the underlying assets and investor protection mechanisms becoming increasingly important [7]

Core Viewpoint - Guanghui Automotive announced a cash acquisition of "Huiche Debt" bonds, seen as a limited self-rescue amid debt difficulties, representing a clear small-scale repayment case in the delisted convertible bond market [1] Group 1: Acquisition Details - The company plans to acquire bonds at a price of 100.47 yuan per bond, with a maximum of 100 bonds per account, allowing for a maximum payout of 10,047 yuan per account [1][2] - As of November 3, 2025, the remaining principal of "Huiche Debt" is 1.885 billion yuan, held by approximately 62,700 bondholders, with 99.58% of the bonds confirmed [2] - The acquisition requires consent from bondholders; those who do not agree will not have their bonds purchased [3] Group 2: Debt Restructuring Strategy - The acquisition aims to protect small investors' interests, reduce the number of bondholders, and alleviate future debt restructuring pressures [3] - The company disclosed a long-term debt disposal plan, including cash repayment at a discount, stock repayment, trust debt settlement, and extension of debt [3] - The acquisition will reduce the company's non-restricted cash and available assets, potentially impacting its debt repayment capacity [3] Group 3: Market Implications - Small-scale repayment is intended to restore credit gaps and is seen as a strategy to gain support from numerous small bondholders, thereby increasing the likelihood of successful restructuring plans [4] - Historical cases show that small bondholders often receive full repayment, while larger amounts may be treated differently [4] - The report indicates that credit ratings will play a more significant role in convertible bond investments, with increased focus on the quality of bonds post-implementation of the comprehensive registration system [5]

Core Viewpoint - Guanghui Automotive's announcement regarding the acquisition of "Huiche Debt" is seen as a limited self-rescue measure amid its debt crisis, representing another clear case of small-scale cash repayment in the delisted convertible bond market [2][5]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The company plans to acquire the bonds held by bondholders at a price of 100.47 yuan per bond, with a maximum purchase limit of 100 bonds per account, allowing for a maximum payout of 10,047 yuan per account [2][4]. - As of November 3, 2025, the remaining principal amount of "Huiche Debt" is 1.885 billion yuan, with 62,700 bondholders, of which 62,200 have confirmed their holdings, accounting for approximately 99.58% of the total remaining bonds [4]. - The acquisition will require consent from the relevant bondholders, and those who do not explicitly agree will not have their bonds purchased [5]. Group 2: Debt Restructuring Strategy - The company has disclosed a long-term plan for debt disposal, which includes cash repayment at a discount to face value, stock repayment, trust debt settlement, and extending the maturity of the bonds [5]. - The company aims to prioritize the interests of small investors to reduce the number of bondholders and alleviate future debt restructuring pressures [5]. - After the acquisition, the company's unrestricted cash will decrease, potentially impacting its debt repayment capacity [5]. Group 3: Market Implications - Small-scale cash repayment is intended to restore credit gaps and is viewed as a strategy to gain support from numerous small bondholders, thereby increasing the likelihood of passing the restructuring plan [7]. - Historical cases show that small bondholders often receive full repayment, while larger amounts may be treated differently under restructuring plans [7]. - The credit rating of convertible bonds is becoming increasingly significant, with lower-rated bonds facing potential sell-offs as the overall credit risk in the convertible bond market rises [8].

Core Points - The China Interbank Market Dealers Association issued warnings to several companies for non-compliance with regulatory requirements regarding financial disclosures and transactions [1] Group 1: Warnings Issued - Shanghai Dingling Private Fund was warned for assisting an issuer in non-market-based debt financing and charging large financial support fees [1] - Tianjin Binhai Rural Commercial Bank received a warning for participating in its own issued secondary capital bond transactions, violating regulatory requirements [1] - Nantong Sanjian was warned for failing to disclose its 2024 annual report and 2025 Q1 financial statements on time, as well as not reporting significant losses and lawsuits [1] Group 2: Additional Warnings - Guanghui Automobile was warned for not timely disclosing its 2024 annual report and updates on debt defaults and investor protection measures [1] - Sander Environment faced a severe warning for similar disclosure failures, including not reporting litigation matters and previous disciplinary actions [1]

Core Insights - A significant number of bond-issuing companies failed to disclose their semi-annual reports on time, with 48 companies identified, of which 15 cited audit-related issues as a primary reason for the delay [1][2] - The delays are attributed to various factors, including incomplete audits from previous years, management's inability to obtain accurate financial information, and ongoing debt restructuring or bankruptcy processes [1][4] Group 1: Audit-Related Issues - 31.25% of the companies that failed to disclose their reports mentioned audit-related problems, such as incomplete audits from previous years and difficulties in hiring new audit firms [1] - Specific reasons for delays include the need for more time to gather information, financial personnel shortages, and the discovery of issues in financial data that require re-evaluation [1][3] Group 2: Debt Restructuring and Financial Health - 13 out of the 48 companies indicated that they or their affiliates are undergoing debt restructuring, mergers, or bankruptcy processes, contributing to the delays in report disclosures [1][2] - China Minsheng Investment Co., Ltd. announced a delay in its semi-annual report due to ongoing debt restructuring efforts, highlighting the impact of financial health on reporting timelines [2] Group 3: Financial Institutions and Regional Reforms - Several insurance companies, including Baidian Life and Guohua Life, announced delays in their financial report disclosures due to the need for accurate and complete information [3] - Local rural credit systems' reforms are cited as a reason for delays among various rural commercial banks, as they align with provincial planning for financial restructuring [4][5] Group 4: Industry-Specific Challenges - Guanghui Automotive, once a leading car dealer, has faced significant operational challenges leading to delays in both annual and semi-annual report disclosures [6][7] - The company has experienced a loss of manufacturer-authorized dealerships, resulting in management and financial personnel turnover, complicating the audit process [6][7] Group 5: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The ongoing financial struggles of companies like Guanghui Automotive have raised concerns among investors, particularly following a public default involving significant amounts [6][7] - The financial health of companies undergoing restructuring or facing operational challenges will likely remain under close scrutiny from investors in the upcoming reporting periods [2][4]

Group 1: Blue Light Development - Blue Light Development has been added to the list of dishonest executors, with 25 new entries from June 17, 2025, to September 16, 2025 [1] - The company reported a net loss of 2.552 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, primarily due to an operating loss of approximately 1.88 billion yuan, impairment provisions of 194 million yuan, and non-operating losses of 480 million yuan [2] - As of the latest update, Blue Light Development has 15 defaulted bonds totaling 12.067 billion yuan, with 3 offshore bonds remaining in circulation, totaling 1.05 billion USD, all of which are also in default [2] Group 2: Guanghui Automobile Service - Guanghui Automobile Service has been added to the list of dishonest executors, along with its subsidiaries, due to failure to pay rent and penalties as per court judgment [2] - The company’s chairman and controlling shareholder have also been restricted from high consumption activities [2] - Guanghui Automobile Service has 3 defaulted bonds amounting to 2.117 billion yuan [3] Group 3: ST Dongshi - ST Dongshi has had its bank accounts frozen for an amount of 265.2 million yuan due to a court ruling related to a liability dispute [3] - The company expects a net profit loss of between 126 million yuan and 105 million yuan for the first half of 2025, primarily due to declining revenue and high fixed costs [4] - ST Dongshi reported a continuous net loss of 903 million yuan in 2024 and 362 million yuan in 2023 [4] Group 4: Shandong Shengtong Group - Shandong Shengtong Group has defaulted on 9 bonds, with a total default amount of 5.756 billion yuan [4] - Ordinary creditors received a distribution of 0.2% of their unpaid claims as part of the bond default process [4] Group 5: Hongyang Real Estate - Hongyang Real Estate's liquidation hearing has been postponed to March 23, 2026, with support from several priority noteholders [5] - The company reported a revenue of approximately 2.712 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a decrease of 54.8% compared to the same period in 2024 [5] - The net loss attributable to the parent company was approximately 1.884 billion yuan, an increase of 5.59% year-on-year [5] - Hongyang Real Estate has 6 offshore bonds in circulation, with a total outstanding balance of 1.5134 billion USD, all of which are in default [6]

Digital Consumption Expansion - In the first seven months of this year, the retail of computer and electronic products in Guizhou province increased by 22.6%, while home audio-visual equipment and communication devices saw a growth of 36.4% [3] - The growth of digital consumption is supported by a significant increase in basic software development by 116.3%, and information technology services and internet-related services growing by 47.8% and 8.2% respectively [2] Green Consumption Trends - Public electric bus services and public bicycle services in Guizhou experienced remarkable growth of 293.9% and 25.2% respectively in the first seven months of this year, while sales of electric vehicle charging increased by 84.8% [4] - The number of new energy vehicles registered in Xinyi city increased by 59.28% year-on-year, with 6,997 new energy passenger vehicles reported for vehicle purchase tax [4] Health Consumption Growth - The sales revenue of sports competitions, sports venues, and fitness and leisure services in Guizhou grew by 48.4%, 18.2%, and 7.3% respectively in the first seven months of this year, with sports goods retail increasing by 90.8% [5] - The "Liupanshui Marathon" attracted 74,000 participants, marking a 16.8% increase, and generated over 20 million yuan in consumption during the event [5] Self-Care Consumption Dynamics - The services of bars and cafes in Guizhou grew by 40% and 19.3% respectively, while camping sites and homestay services increased by 21.8% and 12.5% [7] - The coffee shop "SeekSeeking" in Guiyang has seen daily sales reach up to 500 cups, reflecting a significant increase in customer traffic [7] Overall Consumption Landscape - The integration of digital and cultural tourism, along with the rise of health and green consumption, is creating a vibrant consumption landscape in Guizhou [7]

Core Insights - Despite an increase in automobile sales, dealers are facing significant challenges, with the industry experiencing a shift from "increasing sales without profit" to "losing money with every sale" [1] - The "2025 China Automotive Circulation Industry Dealer Group Top 100 Ranking" highlights the struggles of traditional dealers, with the top performer, Zhongsheng Group, reporting revenues of 168.12 billion yuan and total sales of 711,500 vehicles [1][5] - The implementation of the "old-for-new" policy in 2024 has helped maintain a 5.5% growth in the passenger car market, with over 3.22 million applications for subsidies by May 11, 2025 [1] Industry Overview - The automotive circulation industry is witnessing a polarization in operational capabilities among dealers, with the future favoring those who can adapt to new market conditions [2] - The average gross profit margin for new cars among struggling traditional brand dealers is negative, leading to an overall pre-tax profit margin of -6.9% [4] - In contrast, strong traditional brand dealers maintain a gross profit margin of 1.5% on new cars and achieve a net profit margin of 2.1% through effective management [4] Financial Performance - The top 100 dealers reported a total revenue of 1.7213 trillion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 2.5% year-on-year, with new car sales down by 0.2% to 6.52 million units [5] - The number of 4S stores increased by 3.5% to 6,003, while the gross profit margin for new cars fell by 22.6%, although the overall gross profit margin rose by 3.2% to 6.7% [5] - Used car sales surged by 19.7% to 1.39 million units, but the gross profit margin for used cars decreased by 3.6% to 6.4% [5] Strategic Responses - To counter declining profit margins, top dealers are reducing operational costs, with employee numbers down by 6.8% and salaries reduced by 8.2% [6] - The number of base customers for top dealers grew by 19.3% to 100.26 million, indicating a focus on customer retention and engagement [6] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles among top dealers reached 23%, a year-on-year increase of 31.1%, with total sales of new energy vehicles rising by 30.9% to 15.02 million units [7] Future Directions - The "New Four Transformations" strategy for dealers includes diversifying business operations, asset lightening, brand differentiation, and management digitization [7] - Successful examples, such as Chongqing Baishida, demonstrate the effectiveness of value-driven customer engagement and digital tools in enhancing profitability [8] - Digital transformation is seen as a means to not only control costs but also to unlock greater profit potential, as evidenced by various case studies [8]