证券研究报告 谁在坚持买油车？ 证券分析师：黄细里 执业证书编号：S0600520010001 联系邮箱： huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 联系电话：021-60199793 2025年8月15日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 报告核心结论（1） 注：样本量不足够大或引起数据的偏差，建议多渠道交叉验证 2 ◼ 报告研究方法论：基于抽样原则，样本量筛选原则：选取当下油车市场各个价位热门经典车型， 7大品牌13款车型26名车主。分别是：奥迪（A6L、Q5L），宝马（3系、5系），奔驰GLC，大 众（速腾、帕萨特、途观L），丰田（卡罗拉、RAV4、凯美瑞），日产轩逸、通用昂科威。 ◼ 为何这些用户坚持买油车？1）油车性价比高！受访的26位车主几乎每个都认同这点，甚至觉得 油车特别香。2）车子本质还是A点-B点代步工具，万一要开十年以上的话，电车的电池中途肯定 要更换，这样的话全生命周期成本，电车不一定比油车便宜。3）接近50%车主并不具备拥有专 用充电桩条件。4）认为电车尤其是电池技术并不成熟。5）跑长途电车的里程焦虑。 ◼ 油车用户怎么看电车优势？1）承认电车的单公里成本确实要便宜，但如果自己每年公里 ...

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is undergoing a significant transformation as traditional fuel vehicles face increasing competition from electric vehicles (EVs), leading to a decline in the market share and resale value of fuel vehicles [4][5][10]. Market Trends - In July, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China's passenger car market reached 54.0%, a year-on-year increase of 2.7 percentage points. Cumulatively, 6.455 million NEVs were sold in the first seven months of the year, representing a 29.5% year-on-year growth [4][16]. - The second-hand fuel vehicle market is experiencing downward pressure on prices, with average inventory cycles extending to 43 days and 35.6% of businesses facing cycles over 30 days, indicating increased operational pressure [5][21]. Resale Value Decline - The resale value of previously high-value brands like Toyota and Honda is declining, with the three-year resale value for Toyota dropping to 56.6% from 83.24% in 2021, and Honda to 57% from 78.19% [10][13]. - Specific examples include a two-year-old Toyota Camry priced at 12.96 million yuan, reflecting a 65% resale value, down from higher values in previous years [6][8]. Shift to New Energy Vehicles - The second-hand market for NEVs is growing, with penetration rates rising from 8% to 9.9% in recent months, indicating a shift in consumer preference [16][18]. - Some second-hand car dealers are increasingly focusing on selling NEVs to compensate for the declining profits and sales of fuel vehicles [5][20]. Consumer Behavior - Consumers are showing a preference for NEVs, with many second-hand car dealers reporting that the inventory of NEVs is now greater than that of fuel vehicles [18][20]. - Despite the growth of NEVs, fuel vehicles still maintain a significant market presence, with many consumers still willing to purchase them if priced competitively [21].

Core Viewpoint - Recent announcements from the State Administration for Market Regulation highlight multiple vehicle recalls by automakers including Ferrari, GAC Toyota, FAW Toyota, BMW, and Stellantis due to safety hazards, emphasizing the importance of China's vehicle defect recall mechanism in protecting consumer rights and ensuring road safety [1][5][7] Group 1: Recall Details - BMW's recall involves over 230,000 vehicles, focusing on electrical safety and high-voltage system risks, with issues stemming from improperly manufactured starter generator connectors that could lead to engine stalling or fire [2] - GAC Toyota's recall includes over 90,000 vehicles, with issues related to instrument panel control program settings causing blackouts and insufficient strength in spiral springs due to improper heat treatment during manufacturing [3] - FAW Toyota's recall affects over 96,000 vehicles, addressing similar instrument panel program issues, with solutions involving program upgrades and inspections [3] - Stellantis is recalling 3,339 imported vehicles due to safety-related issues with the air conditioning system, while Ferrari is recalling 381 imported Purosangue vehicles due to potential short circuits in the fuse box [4] Group 2: Recall Mechanism and Communication - The recent recalls reflect the effective operation of China's vehicle defect recall system, supported by regulations that define defective products, recall procedures, and corporate responsibilities [5] - Automakers have demonstrated prompt responses and targeted solutions, offering free services such as part replacements and software upgrades to minimize consumer costs and ensure safety [5][6] - Effective communication channels are crucial for the success of recalls, with automakers notifying affected owners directly and providing platforms for information queries, enhancing transparency and consumer awareness [6]

Core Viewpoint - BMW and Brilliance BMW are recalling over 230,000 vehicles in China due to safety hazards related to the starter generator and high-voltage system [1][3][4] Group 1: Recall Details - The recall includes various models, primarily the i-series, such as the domestic i3, iX1, i5, and imported i4, i7, iX [2][3] - Specific recall numbers include: - S2025M0120V: 1 imported 5 Series vehicle [3] - S2025M0121V: 1,012 domestic 5 Series and 379 domestic X5 vehicles [3] - S2025M0122V: 4,609 imported i4, 91 imported i5, 3,244 imported i7, and 7,730 imported iX vehicles [4] - S2025M0123V: 95,753 domestic i3, 5,657 domestic i5, 6,022 domestic iX1, and 106,000 domestic iX3 vehicles [4] Group 2: Safety Concerns - The recall is due to potential issues with the starter generator's power connector, which may lead to vehicle stalling or fire hazards [3][4] - Additionally, there are concerns regarding the high-voltage system potentially shutting down unexpectedly, increasing the risk of collisions [4] Group 3: Market Performance - BMW's sales in China dropped by 15.5% in the first half of the year, indicating a decline in competitiveness in the high-end vehicle market [6][7] - In contrast, BMW's sales in Europe and North America showed growth, with increases of 8.2% and 3.4% respectively [7] Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - BMW is taking measures to address sales declines, including leadership changes at Brilliance BMW, with the appointment of the first female CEO [7] - The company is also enhancing its technological capabilities through partnerships, such as with Alibaba for AI development and with Momenta for intelligent driving solutions [8]

Core Viewpoint - BMW plans to recall over 230,000 vehicles due to potential safety hazards related to starter generator connections and high-voltage system malfunctions [2][4][11] Recall Details - The recall includes various models, primarily the i series, such as the domestic i3, iX1, i5, and imported i4, i7, iX [4][6] - Specific recall numbers and details include: - S2025M0120V: 1 imported 5 series vehicle from November 26, 2024 [7] - S2025M0121V: 379 domestic X5 and 1,012 domestic 5 series vehicles produced between July 20, 2024, and December 19, 2024 [7] - S2025M0122V: 4,609 imported i4, 91 imported i5, 3,244 imported i7, and 7,730 imported iX vehicles produced between December 2, 2020, and December 12, 2023 [8] - S2025M0123V: 95,753 domestic i3, 5,657 domestic i5, 6,022 domestic iX1, and 106,000 domestic iX3 vehicles produced between May 26, 2020, and December 5, 2024 [9] - BMW will provide free inspections and necessary replacements or repairs to eliminate safety risks [7][10] Sales Performance - BMW's sales in China dropped by 15.5% in the first half of the year, with total sales of 317,900 vehicles [11][13] - The company has experienced a high recall frequency, with previous recalls including 16,813 domestic 5 series and 9,953 X5 vehicles [12] - Global sales for BMW Group's three brands (BMW, MINI, Rolls-Royce) were 1.207388 million vehicles, a slight decrease of 0.5% year-on-year [13] Strategic Measures - To address declining sales, BMW has made significant personnel changes, including the appointment of Birgit Böhm-Wannenwetsch as the first female CEO of Brilliance BMW starting August 1, 2025 [14] - BMW is enhancing its strategic partnerships, including a collaboration with Alibaba to develop AI engines for new models in the Chinese market [14]

Core Viewpoint - BMW (China) Automotive Trade Co., Ltd. and Brilliance BMW Automotive Ltd. have announced a recall of over 230,000 vehicles due to safety hazards related to starter generator connections and high-voltage system malfunctions [1][4]. Recall Details - The recall is divided into four categories, with specific vehicle models and production dates outlined for each [2][3]. - The first recall involves 1 imported 5 Series vehicle produced on November 26, 2024 [2]. - The second recall includes 1,012 units of the domestic 5 Series and 379 units of the domestic X5, produced between July 20, 2024, and December 19, 2024 [2]. - The third recall encompasses 4,609 imported i4 vehicles and 7,730 imported iX vehicles, among others, produced between December 2, 2020, and December 18, 2023 [3]. - The fourth recall affects 95,753 domestic i3 vehicles, making it the most affected model, along with other domestic models [3]. Safety Concerns - The vehicles in the recall may experience issues such as loose connections in the starter generator, which could lead to engine stalling or fire hazards [2][4]. - BMW will provide free software upgrades to address the high-voltage system malfunction that could lead to loss of power and increased collision risk [4]. Market Performance - BMW's recall frequency has been high, with over 4 million vehicles recalled last year due to various issues [4]. - In 2024, BMW's deliveries in China fell by 13.4% to 714,500 units, marking the largest decline among luxury brands [4]. - In the first half of the year, BMW's sales in Asia dropped by 11.1%, with a significant 15.5% decline in the Chinese market, despite it being the largest single market for the company [4]. Strategic Initiatives - To counter declining sales, BMW has intensified its local ecosystem development, including partnerships with Huawei and Alibaba for AI and smart driving technologies [5]. - Collaborations with CATL and EVE Energy aim to accelerate the production of cylindrical battery cells [5]. - BMW has also partnered with Momenta to develop new intelligent driving assistance solutions tailored for the Chinese market [5].

Group 1 - Ferrari is recalling 381 units of the imported Purosangue due to a potential short circuit in the fuse box, which may lead to decreased braking performance [2][3] - GAC Toyota is recalling multiple models including 69,169 units of the new Camry and 57,402 units of the Levin due to improper control program settings that may cause the instrument panel to go black during startup [3][4] - GAC Toyota will provide free upgrades to the instrument panel control program for the affected vehicles to eliminate safety risks [4] Group 2 - FAW Toyota is recalling 54,143 units of the domestic Avalon due to safety concerns [5] - BMW is recalling various models including 1 unit of the imported 5 Series and 379 units of the domestic X5 due to potential issues with the starter generator's power connector that may lead to vehicle stalling or fire [8][9] - BMW will conduct free inspections and necessary replacements for the affected vehicles to address safety hazards [9][10] Group 3 - Stellantis is recalling 3,339 units of the imported Jeep Grand Cherokee 4xe due to potential damage to the air conditioning blower motor connector, which may impair visibility and increase collision risk [11] - Stellantis will inspect and replace the air conditioning blower motor assembly if necessary to mitigate safety concerns [11]

Core Points - The article discusses multiple vehicle recalls initiated by various automotive companies due to safety concerns related to specific models and production dates [1][2][3][4][5][6][8][13] Group 1: Ferrari Recall - Ferrari is recalling 381 units of the imported Purosangue model due to a potential short circuit in the fuse box, which may lead to decreased braking performance [1] - The recall will start on September 5, 2025, for vehicles produced between October 27, 2023, and February 19, 2025 [1] Group 2: GAC Toyota Recall - GAC Toyota is recalling a total of 132,128 vehicles across various models including the Camry, Levin, and others due to issues with the instrument panel control program and insufficient strength of the front suspension coil spring [2][3][4] - The recalls will begin on September 30, 2025, for certain models and will include free upgrades and inspections to address the identified safety hazards [3][4] Group 3: FAW Toyota Recall - FAW Toyota is recalling 54,143 units of the domestic Avalon model starting September 30, 2025, due to unspecified safety concerns [5][6] - Additional recalls include 6,866 units of Lexus models and 35,054 units of imported Toyota models, with various production dates [5][6] Group 4: BMW Recall - BMW is recalling multiple models including the 5 Series and X5, totaling over 100,000 vehicles due to potential issues with the starter generator's power connector, which could lead to engine stalling or fire risks [8][10][11][12] - The recalls will involve free inspections and necessary replacements to mitigate safety risks [10][12] Group 5: Stellantis Recall - Stellantis is recalling 3,339 units of the imported Jeep Grand Cherokee 4xe due to a manufacturing defect in the air conditioning blower motor connector, which could impair visibility and increase collision risk [13] - The company will provide free inspections and replacements for affected components [13]

Core Viewpoint - BMW is facing significant challenges in the Chinese market, with a notable decline in sales and increased pressure from tariffs, leading to a negative outlook from S&P Global Ratings [2][19]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, BMW's global sales exceeded 1.2 million units, a slight decrease of 0.5% year-on-year [2]. - Revenue for the same period was €67.685 billion, down 8% year-on-year, while net profit fell by 29% to €4.015 billion [2]. - The EBIT margin for the automotive segment decreased by 2.4 percentage points to 6.2% [2]. Market Performance - The Chinese market saw the largest decline, with sales dropping 15.5% to 318,125 units in the first half of 2025 [11]. - BMW's performance in other major markets, including Europe and the Americas, showed growth, with total sales in these regions increasing by 6.3% [12]. Electric Vehicle Sales - BMW's electric vehicle (EV) sales rose significantly, with over 220,000 battery electric vehicles (BEVs) delivered, marking a 15.7% increase year-on-year [5][6]. - The share of BEVs in total sales reached 18.3%, while the total delivery of new energy vehicles (including plug-in hybrids) was 319,031 units, up 18.6% [6]. Brand Performance - The MINI brand experienced a substantial increase in sales, with a 361.7% rise in pure electric model deliveries, totaling 46,000 units [7]. - BMW brand's pure electric vehicle sales decreased by 3% to 174,000 units, while plug-in hybrid sales increased by 29% to 98,000 units [7]. Strategic Initiatives - BMW is focusing on its electric vehicle strategy, with over €4 billion invested in research and development for new generation technologies [9]. - The company plans to launch 40 new models based on the Neue Klasse platform by 2027, with the first model, the iX3, debuting at the Munich Motor Show in September [9]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive pressure in the Chinese market is intensifying, particularly from local brands offering attractive features at lower prices [19]. - BMW aims to differentiate itself by leveraging localized technology and partnerships, such as collaborating with Momenta for smart driving systems [17].

Core Viewpoint - BMW is facing significant challenges in the Chinese market, with a notable decline in sales and increased pressure from tariffs, impacting overall financial performance [1][11][21]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, BMW's global sales exceeded 1.2 million units, a slight decrease of 0.5% year-on-year [1]. - Revenue for the first half of 2025 was €67.685 billion, down 8% year-on-year, while net profit fell by 29% to €4.015 billion [1]. - The EBIT margin for the automotive segment dropped by 2.4 percentage points to 6.2% [1]. Group 2: Market Performance - The Chinese market saw the largest decline for BMW, with sales dropping 15.5% to 318,125 units in the first half of 2025 [1][11]. - Despite challenges in China, BMW maintained leadership in revenue, net profit, and sales among the German luxury brands [1]. - In Europe, BMW's electric vehicle (EV) sales increased significantly, with a market share close to 40% for EVs [7][8]. Group 3: Electric Vehicle Sales - BMW's electric vehicle deliveries surpassed 220,000 units in the first half of 2025, marking a 15.7% increase year-on-year [6]. - The total delivery of new energy vehicles (including plug-in hybrids) reached 319,031 units, an 18.6% increase, accounting for 26.4% of total sales [6]. - MINI brand played a crucial role in the growth of electric vehicle sales, with a 361.7% increase in pure electric deliveries [5][7]. Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - BMW is focusing on electric vehicle development, with over €4 billion invested in R&D for new generation technologies [8][9]. - The company plans to launch 40 new models based on the new generation platform by 2027 [9]. - To strengthen its position in China, BMW is collaborating with local tech firms to develop intelligent driving systems tailored for Chinese roads [18]. Group 5: Future Outlook - BMW anticipates continued pressure on profit margins due to competition and tariff impacts, projecting a decline in EBIT margin to between 5% and 7% for the automotive segment in 2025 [20][21]. - The company expects to face ongoing competition from local brands in China, which may lead to a slight decline in sales in the coming years [21].