Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market has experienced a significant pullback, with spot gold dropping over 6% on February 2, reflecting a fragile structure after a sharp short-term rise. The long-term outlook for the non-ferrous sector remains strong due to factors such as the restructuring of the monetary credit system, supply-side rigidity, and new demand dynamics, although short-term risks of correction should be monitored [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Trends - The non-ferrous sector has shown volatility, with traditional valuation models becoming ineffective as market sentiment and geopolitical factors increasingly influence prices [3]. - The nomination of Waller as the next Federal Reserve Chair has led to expectations of policy shifts, including a significant reduction in the Fed's balance sheet, which could impact liquidity and future interest rate cuts [3]. - On January 30, international gold prices recorded their largest single-day drop in 40 years, indicating heightened volatility and risk in the gold market, prompting experts to advise caution among investors [3]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities and Risks - The non-ferrous sector presents both long-term investment opportunities and short-term risks, necessitating a rational approach from investors based on their risk tolerance [1]. - The recent performance of the non-ferrous ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159652) indicates a significant drop in component stocks, with many experiencing declines of over 5% [2][6]. - Despite the recent downturn, the long-term fundamentals for industrial metals like copper, aluminum, and tin remain strong, with expectations for price recovery post-correction [7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current market dynamics, including high global debt and geopolitical uncertainties, provide a solid foundation for precious metal prices to trend positively in the long run [4]. - The non-ferrous ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159652) is highlighted for its comprehensive coverage of various metal sectors, positioning it well to benefit from the ongoing supercycle in non-ferrous metals [5][9]. - The ETF's index has shown a cumulative return leading its peers, with a significant portion of its gains driven by earnings rather than valuation increases, indicating a favorable investment environment [11][12].

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a significant decline in gold-related stocks, with over 20 stocks hitting the 10% limit down, including notable companies like Xiaocheng Technology, Tongling Nonferrous Metals, and China Gold [1] - Gold prices continued to retreat, with spot gold dropping to $4,586.16 per ounce, a decrease of 18% from last week's historical high of $5,595.44 [1] - Spot silver also experienced a substantial decline, falling to $76.967 per ounce, which is a 36.7% drop from last week's peak of $121.6485 [1] Group 2 - Xiaocheng Technology reported a decline of 17.08%, with a total market value of 15.3 billion [2] - Tongling Nonferrous Metals saw a decrease of 10.04%, with a market capitalization of 99.8 billion [2] - Other companies like Baijin Nonferrous Metals and Hengbang Shares also faced declines of 10.02% and 10.02%, respectively, with market values of 91.1 billion and 26.6 billion [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a significant decline in the performance of non-ferrous metal stocks, with companies like Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold hitting the daily limit down, and Northern Rare Earth dropping over 5% [1] - Mining and non-ferrous related ETFs have also seen a decline of over 5% due to market influences [1] Group 2 - Recent reports indicate that not only precious metals like gold and silver have risen significantly, but industrial metals such as copper and aluminum, as well as energy metals like cobalt and lithium, have also shown good growth, with multiple metals reaching historical or phase highs [2] - The super cycle of non-ferrous metals is attributed to three main factors: the weakening trend of the dollar due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, supply-demand gaps caused by declining ore grades and rising marginal costs in major mines, and domestic policies aimed at optimizing excess capacity [2]

北京商报讯（记者 马换换 李佳雪）2月2日，A股黄金板块重挫，板块内四川黄金、山东黄金、西部黄 金等多股跌停。 除了跌停股之外，晓程科技开盘"20cm"跌停，不过之后打开跌停板，截至北京商报记者发稿，公司股 价跌幅15.11%。 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The gold and non-ferrous metal sectors experienced significant declines, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit down, including Hunan Gold, Xiaocheng Technology, and Western Gold [1][2] - International gold and silver prices saw substantial drops on January 30, marking some of the largest single-day declines in decades due to profit-taking and short-term futures traders closing long positions [1] Group 2: Stock Performance - Xiaocheng Technology's stock fell by 20.00% to 54.00, while Hunan Gold and Western Gold both dropped by 10.00% to 33.30 and 40.25 respectively [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.93% to 4079.71, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.54% to 14128.87, contrasting with a 0.65% increase in the ChiNext Index [3][4] Group 3: Sector Analysis - The market saw a wave of limit-downs in the gold and base metal sectors, with oil, gas, chemicals, agriculture, coal, and steel industries also experiencing notable declines [4] - Conversely, sectors such as photovoltaic and ultra-high voltage themes showed resilience and strength amid the broader market downturn [4] Group 4: Additional Market Movements - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower, with the Hang Seng Index down 1.06% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 1.29%, influenced by significant drops in major telecom operators [8][9] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 750 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at an interest rate of 1.40%, with 1505 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [7]

以金银为首的大宗商品继续下跌，上周五大跌的港股三大指数低开，恒指跌1.06%，国指跌1.35%，恒 生科技指数跌1.29%。权重科技股集体低迷，阿里巴巴、网易跌超2.4%；金银继续跳水，黄金股领衔有 色金属股下挫，其中灵宝黄金大跌近14%，中国黄金国际大跌超12%，山东黄金、紫金矿业、赤峰黄金 等多股跌超9%以上；三大运营商宣布调整电信服务增值税税率，由6%调至9%，三大电信股低开，中国 联通跌超7%。另外，生物医药股、锂电池概念股多数上涨，其中宁德时代涨近2%。(格隆汇) ...

[Table_Date] 2026 年 2 月 2 日 [Table_Title] 2025 年黄金需求同比增加 8%至 4999.4 吨，投资需求同 比增加 84%至 2175.3 吨 证券研究报告|行业动态报告 [Table_Title2] 有色金属 [Table_Summary] ►供给：2025 年黄金总供应量同比增长 1%，达到 5002.3 吨 生产商一直专注于全价风险敞口，对套期保值兴趣寥寥。黄金 矿商在 2025 年同样表现亮眼。然而，市场对金价下跌的中位 数预期可能促使部分参与者提高警惕。套期保值行为正从看涨 期权卖出转向看跌期权买入——尽管规模仍相对有限——这表 明矿商希望在保留上行风险敞口的同时获得下行保护。但要将 产量提升至当前水平之上仍将面临挑战。 ►需求：2025 年黄金需求（不考虑 OTC及其他）达到 4999.4 吨，同比增长 8% 2025 年，不考虑 OTC 及其他，黄金总需求同比增长 8%至 4999.4 吨。其中金饰制造 1638.0 吨，同比减少 19%；科技用金 322.8 吨，同比减少 1%；投资需求 2175.3 吨，同比增长 84%； 央行购金 863.3 吨 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry and specific companies within the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting a positive outlook for gold and silver prices in the medium to long term [2][4]. Core Views - The new Federal Reserve Chairman's policies have raised concerns, leading to a correction in gold and silver prices. However, the long-term trend remains bullish due to central bank gold purchases and a weakening dollar credit [2][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of geopolitical factors and macroeconomic policies in influencing metal prices, particularly in the context of expanding domestic demand in China [8][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry and Stock Performance - The SW Non-ferrous Index increased by 3.37% during the week, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.44% [8]. - Key companies recommended for investment include Zijin Mining, China Molybdenum, and Yunnan Aluminum, among others, with a focus on their earnings forecasts and valuations [2][8]. 2. Base Metals - Aluminum prices are influenced by geopolitical tensions and domestic production adjustments, with a notable increase in aluminum inventory [24][28]. - Copper prices are expected to remain stable, supported by a weak dollar and increased import activity, despite a generally subdued demand environment [45][48]. - Zinc prices have shown volatility due to external factors and domestic supply disruptions, with a recent increase in prices observed [49][50]. 3. Precious Metals and Minor Metals - Gold and silver prices are projected to rise in the medium term, driven by central bank purchases and a weakening dollar [2][8]. - The report highlights the potential for price increases in cobalt and nickel due to supply constraints and geopolitical factors [2][24][63]. 4. Rare Earths - The report does not provide specific insights into rare earths, focusing instead on the broader non-ferrous metals market [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the metals and new materials industry [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights increased volatility in the metals sector due to intensified capital competition, with the non-ferrous metals index outperforming the broader market indices [2][5]. - The report suggests that the precious metals sector is poised for recovery, driven by central bank gold purchases and a favorable long-term outlook for gold prices [4][24]. - Industrial metals, particularly copper and aluminum, are expected to see price increases due to stable supply-demand dynamics and significant infrastructure investments [4][48]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.44%, while the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 1.62%. In contrast, the non-ferrous metals index rose by 3.37%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3.29 percentage points [5][8]. - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals index has increased by 22.59%, surpassing the CSI 300 Index by 20.94 percentage points [9]. Price Changes - The report details price fluctuations for various metals, with copper prices increasing by 0.32% and aluminum prices decreasing by 0.79% week-on-week [16]. - Precious metals saw significant price changes, with gold prices down by 1.52% and silver prices down by 17.44% [16]. Inventory Changes - Copper inventories in domestic markets decreased by 0.7 million tons, while exchange inventories increased by 2.5 million tons [33]. - Aluminum social inventories totaled 102.55 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 6.05 million tons [49]. Sector-Specific Insights - **Precious Metals**: The report emphasizes the potential for gold prices to rise due to increased central bank purchases and a favorable economic outlook [24]. - **Industrial Metals**: Copper demand is expected to remain strong, supported by infrastructure investments and a stable supply chain [4][33]. - **Aluminum**: The report notes a decrease in the operating rates of downstream processing enterprises, indicating potential supply constraints [48]. Growth Cycle Investment Analysis - The report recommends focusing on stable supply-demand dynamics in the new energy manufacturing sector, highlighting companies such as Huafeng Aluminum and Baowu Magnesium [4].

Group 1: Metal Sector - Shandong Gold - Shandong Gold's net profit forecast for 2026 is projected to reach CNY 108.14 billion, with a PE ratio of 25.21[10] - The company has a resource reserve of 2,058 tons and an equity reserve of 787 tons, indicating significant undervaluation potential[14] - The recovery of the Jiaoji Gold Mine is expected to contribute 10 tons of gold annually once fully operational[14] Group 2: Building Materials Sector - Oriental Yuhong - Oriental Yuhong's operating performance is expected to bottom out, with net profits projected at CNY 18 billion in 2025, increasing to CNY 29 billion by 2027[21] - The company plans to increase revenue through retail price hikes of 3-4% and overseas expansion, potentially adding CNY 25 billion in revenue from international operations[21] - The domestic construction materials market is expected to see a 47% decline in sales area compared to 2021, leading to significant supply exit in the sector[18] Group 3: Transportation Sector - ZTO Express - ZTO Express is expected to achieve a net profit of CNY 104.45 billion in 2026, with a PE ratio of 11.80[10] - The company has improved its cash flow, with cash reserves exceeding CNY 300 billion and a debt ratio below 30%[44] - The competitive landscape in the express delivery sector is stabilizing, with a focus on improving profitability and operational efficiency[43]