2026 年 02 月 24 日 相关研究 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 避险情绪升级，贵金属价格强势 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报 20260216-20260220 本期投资提示： 行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 有色金属 - ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 iFind，2 月 13 日环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 0.41%，深证成指上涨 1.39%，沪深 300 上涨 0.36%，有色 金属（申万）指数上涨 1.70%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.34 个百分点。2）分子板块看，环比上周，贵金属下跌 1.06%，铝下跌 1.88%，能源金属上涨 2.66%，小金属上涨 6.66%，铜上涨 1.10 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Nonferrous Metals ETF Fund (516650), which opened with a gain of 3.12% at 2.212 yuan [1] - Major holdings in the Nonferrous Metals ETF Fund include Zijin Mining, which rose by 4.53%, and other companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and Ganfeng Lithium, all showing significant increases in their stock prices [1] - The fund's performance benchmark is the CSI Sub-Industry Nonferrous Metals Theme Index, managed by Huaxia Fund Management Co., Ltd., with a return of 114.05% since its inception on June 9, 2021, and a 1.50% return over the past month [1]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals sector has experienced a significant surge, driven by geopolitical risks and favorable macroeconomic conditions, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Precious metals stocks saw substantial gains, with notable increases such as Xiaocheng Technology rising over 13%, Hunan Silver hitting the daily limit, and Sichuan Gold increasing by over 9% [1]. - Spot gold prices broke above $5200 per ounce for the first time since January 30, marking a nearly 2% increase within the day [1]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's main silver contract rose by 13%, reaching 22,366 yuan per kilogram [1]. Group 2: Price Forecasts - UBS has raised its gold price target to $6200 per ounce, citing ongoing geopolitical risks and a favorable macro environment as key drivers for rising gold prices [2]. - Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish mid-term outlook on gold, predicting prices will gradually rise to $5400 per ounce by the end of 2026, despite a temporary slowdown in central bank gold purchases [2]. Group 3: Economic and Geopolitical Factors - U.S. economic and employment data have shown positive performance, but concerns about inflation have delayed interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3]. - Geopolitical tensions, including military threats against Iran and ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Russia, have heightened demand for safe-haven assets [3]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies, particularly following a Supreme Court ruling against certain tariffs, has contributed to market volatility and increased interest in precious metals [3]. Group 4: Market Trends During Holidays - During the Spring Festival, the precious metals market experienced two phases: initial declines due to expectations of delayed interest rate cuts, followed by a recovery driven by geopolitical tensions [4]. - The U.S. military's deployment in the Middle East and disappointing economic data have combined to create a renewed demand for gold and silver, pushing prices higher towards the end of the holiday period [4].

Market Overview - On the first trading day of the Year of the Horse, A-shares opened higher with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 1.15%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 1.52%, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.70% [1] - Precious metals, oil and gas, and computing power sectors showed significant gains [1] Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals concept saw a rapid increase, with notable stocks such as Xiaocheng Technology rising over 13% and Hunan Silver approaching the daily limit [6] - Other companies in the sector, including Sichuan Gold, Hunan Gold, and Zhaojin Mining, also experienced upward movement [6] - Spot gold prices reached $5,200 per ounce, marking a nearly 2% increase, the first time since January 30 [6] - The main contract for silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange surged by 13%, reaching 22,366 yuan per kilogram [6] Key Stocks Performance - Xiaocheng Technology: 64.19, up 12.46%, market cap 14.999 billion [4] - Hunan Silver: 15.05, up 10.01%, market cap 34.989 billion [4] - Sichuan Gold: 49.10, up 6.65%, market cap 14.163 billion [4] - Hunan Gold: 34.52, up 6.22%, market cap 53.938 billion [4] - Zhaojin Mining: 20.39, up 6.14%, market cap 18.936 billion [4] - Other notable stocks include Chifeng Jilong Gold and Western Gold, with respective increases of 5.50% and 5.37% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the performance of the Penghua Nonferrous ETF (159880), which opened with a gain of 3.44% on February 24, 2023, indicating a positive trend in the nonferrous metals sector [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The Penghua Nonferrous ETF (159880) opened at 2.314 yuan, reflecting a 3.44% increase [1] - The fund's performance benchmark is the National Index of Nonferrous Metals Industry, managed by Penghua Fund Management Co., Ltd. [1] - Since its inception on March 8, 2021, the fund has achieved a return of 123.33%, with a monthly return of 2.73% [1] Group 2: Major Holdings - Key stocks in the Penghua Nonferrous ETF include: - Zijin Mining, which rose by 4.53% [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum, which increased by 4.41% [1] - Northern Rare Earth, up by 2.30% [1] - Huayou Cobalt, gaining 1.79% [1] - China Aluminum, which rose by 2.52% [1] - Ganfeng Lithium, increasing by 4.36% [1] - Yun Aluminum, up by 1.92% [1] - Shandong Gold, which rose by 4.07% [1] - Zhongjin Gold, gaining 4.98% [1] - Tianqi Lithium, which increased by 2.65% [1]

Core Insights - The current spot and futures prices of gold and silver have risen, with gold prices surpassing $5,100 [1][2][3] Group 1: Gold Industry Chain - Shandong Gold engages in geological exploration, mining, smelting, refining, and sales of gold, covering the entire process of gold resource development and product [1] - Zijin Mining focuses on exploration and development of gold and other mineral resources, participating in the full industry chain operation of gold [2] - Chifeng Gold specializes in gold mining and processing, producing quality gold for external sales [2] Group 2: Silver Industry Chain - Shengda Resources is involved in the mining, selection, and sales of silver, with a complete business chain for silver resource development [3] - Xingye Mining operates in the underground mining and sales of silver and copper, covering the entire process from ore extraction to silver concentrate production [3] - Yintai Gold engages in the mining, processing, and sales of precious metals, relying on its own mineral resources for silver extraction [3] Group 3: Non-ferrous Metal Futures Service Industry Chain - Nanhua Futures provides brokerage services for commodity and financial futures, including gold and silver [4] - Yong'an Futures offers futures brokerage and asset management services, involving trading services for gold and silver [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Hong Kong gold stocks have strengthened, with China Gold International rising nearly 7% and Shandong Gold increasing over 5% [1] Group 2 - China Gold International's stock performance indicates a significant upward trend in the gold sector [1] - Shandong Gold's stock also reflects positive market sentiment towards gold investments [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of gold stocks in the Hong Kong market, with notable increases in share prices for specific companies [1] Group 2 - China Gold International saw a nearly 7% increase in its stock price [1] - Shandong Gold experienced a rise of over 5% in its stock price [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the recent US Supreme Court ruling on the $175 billion tariff refund has significant implications for both China and the A-share market, despite the refund being an internal US matter [2][6][28] - The $175 billion in tariffs was primarily collected from imports, including a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, and is now being refunded to US importers [8][10] - The refund will indirectly benefit Chinese companies as US importers, who have been financially strained by tariffs, will use the refunded money to pay off debts to Chinese suppliers and resume orders [12][14][28] Group 2 - The immediate impact on the A-share market is expected to be positive, with a potential "opening red" for A-shares as market sentiment improves following the ruling [40][46] - The ruling is seen as a signal that the previous high tariffs on Chinese goods may not be a permanent state, which could lead to a more favorable environment for Chinese exports [20][48] - Structural opportunities in the A-share market are identified, focusing on five main lines: export-oriented sectors, domestic substitution, strategic resources, domestic consumption, and new energy [51][62][88] Group 3 - Export-oriented sectors, particularly those with high exposure to the US market, are expected to benefit directly from the tariff refunds, with companies like Midea Group and Haier expected to see improved performance [52][72][73] - Domestic substitution and self-sufficiency in sectors like semiconductors and military equipment are highlighted as long-term strategic focuses, with companies like SMIC and AVIC Shenyang Aircraft being key players [53][78][86] - Strategic resources such as rare earths and gold are also expected to see price support due to ongoing global supply chain disruptions, benefiting companies like Northern Rare Earth and Shandong Gold [56][87]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold and silver prices is attributed to a confluence of monetary cycles, central bank actions, safe-haven demand, and supply-demand dynamics, indicating a robust long-term bullish trend in precious metals [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of February 20, gold prices reached $5050 per ounce, marking a 2.4% increase during the holiday period, while silver prices rose to $84.35 per ounce, with an 8.19% increase, significantly outperforming gold [1]. - Domestic gold prices also saw a rise, with T+D gold closing at 1108.5 yuan per gram and retail prices surpassing 1550 yuan per gram, reflecting increased physical and investment demand [1]. Group 2: Underlying Factors - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has anchored price levels, with market predictions suggesting a reduction of 50 to 75 basis points by 2026, enhancing the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold [2]. - Central bank gold purchases are providing a rigid support, with 95% of global central banks planning to increase their gold reserves, maintaining an average monthly purchase of 60 to 70 tons [2]. - Geopolitical tensions and rising credit risks are driving safe-haven demand, as the U.S. debt exceeds $38 trillion, weakening dollar credit and prompting investments in gold to hedge against uncertainties [2]. - Supply constraints are tightening, with global gold mine production growth below 2% and rising extraction costs, while investment, industrial, and reserve demand continue to expand, leading to a widening supply-demand gap [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The bullish trend for gold and silver is expected to persist, although short-term volatility may increase, with institutions like Goldman Sachs projecting gold prices to reach $5400 per ounce, and JPMorgan and UBS raising targets to $6200 to $6500 per ounce [3]. - The A-share market is likely to experience a clear transmission effect from the strong performance of gold and silver, benefiting gold mining companies such as Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Hunan Gold, which are expected to see significant earnings elasticity [3]. - The precious metals sector is anticipated to serve as a defensive asset in the face of increased market volatility, providing a hedge against fluctuations in growth and cyclical stocks [3].