1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The global economic growth is expected to be 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, with potential impacts from tariff shocks and supply - demand imbalances in various industries [19]. - The A - share and Hong Kong stock markets have experienced recent adjustments, but the long - term trend of the Hong Kong stock market remains positive, and the overall risk of A - share margin trading is controllable [32][33]. - The bond market has different outlooks in the short and medium - term, with various factors affecting the performance of different bond types [22][28]. - The commodity market shows diverse trends, such as rising precious metal prices, complex situations in the coal - coke - steel - ore and energy - chemical sectors, and changes in agricultural product trade volumes [5][9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - GDP growth in Q2 2025 was 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter [1]. - Manufacturing PMI in September 2025 was 49.8%, up from the previous month, while non - manufacturing PMI was 50.0%, down from the previous month [1]. - In August 2025, M1 and M2 growth rates were 6.0% and 8.8% year - on - year respectively, with M1 growth accelerating [1]. - In September 2025, export and import values increased by 8.3% and 7.4% year - on - year respectively [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment - The National Development and Reform Commission will support energy - saving and carbon - reduction projects in key industries [2]. - From January to September 2025, the national futures market volume and turnover increased by 18.29% and 24.11% year - on - year respectively, but decreased in September [2]. - The Fed may stop shrinking its balance sheet and is expected to cut interest rates, with different views on the number of rate cuts [3][4]. 3.3 Main Commodity Highlights - **Metals**: Shandong Gold's net profit in the first three quarters of 2025 is expected to increase by 83.9% - 98.5% year - on - year, and gold and silver prices have risen [5][6]. - **Coal - Coke - Steel - Ore**: In early October 2025, steel production showed different trends, and global steel demand is expected to be flat in 2025 and rebound slightly in 2026 [9]. - **Energy - Chemical**: Oil prices are under pressure due to supply - demand imbalances, and there may be a policy to regulate photovoltaic capacity [10]. - **Agricultural Products**: China's grain projects are progressing, and there are changes in the import and export volumes of grains in different countries [12]. 3.4 Financial News - **Open Market**: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and is expected to conduct a 6 - month term reverse repurchase operation on October 15 [15]. - **Important News**: The Chinese government emphasizes economic stability, and there are various policy adjustments and economic data changes at home and abroad [16][18]. - **Bond Market**: Bond market performance is diverse, with different trends in different bond types and regions [22]. - **Foreign Exchange Market**: The on - shore and offshore RMB exchange rates have changed, and the US dollar index has declined [27]. - **Research Reports**: Different research institutions have different outlooks on the bond and convertible bond markets [28]. 3.5 Stock Market - A - shares and Hong Kong stocks have recently adjusted, with A - share trading volume reaching 2.6 trillion yuan, and the Hong Kong stock market has been falling for 7 days [32]. - A - share margin trading scale has reached a new high, and some brokers have adjusted margin ratios, while the overall risk is controllable [32]. - Southbound funds have driven the Hong Kong stock market, and although there is short - term adjustment, the long - term trend is positive [33].

Macro - The Chinese government aims to enhance domestic demand and strengthen the domestic circulation by implementing counter-cyclical adjustments and utilizing policy resources effectively [1] - The People's Bank of China is conducting a 600 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to stabilize the market, indicating a continued moderate monetary policy stance [3] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell suggests that the quantitative tightening (QT) plan may soon come to an end due to tightening liquidity conditions in the financial system [4] Industry - Shanghai has issued an action plan for the high-quality development of the intelligent terminal industry, focusing on accelerating AI integration across various sectors and enhancing the scale of intelligent computing server terminals [2] - The Robotaxi market in China is projected to reach 83.1 billion yuan by 2030, driven by the growth of shared mobility services [8] - Domestic manufacturers have made significant advancements in computing chips, achieving performance levels over 1000 times that of top-tier GPUs, signaling positive prospects for China's AI and computing industry [9] - The production of power and other batteries in China reached 151.2 GWh in September, marking a year-on-year increase of 35.4%, indicating strong growth in the lithium battery sector [10] Company - Shenghe Resources expects a net profit increase of 696.82% to 782.96% year-on-year for the first three quarters [11] - Shandong Gold anticipates a net profit increase of 83.9% to 98.5% year-on-year for the first three quarters [13] - Xinda Co. forecasts a staggering net profit increase of 2807.87% to 3211.74% year-on-year for the first three quarters [13] - Chongqing Steel is expected to report a loss of 210 million to 230 million yuan for the first three quarters [13] - China Metallurgical Group's new contract signing amount for the first three quarters is 760.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.7% [13]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Shandong Gold, expects a significant increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by optimized production layout, enhanced core technology, and rising gold prices [1] Financial Performance - The projected net profit attributable to the parent company for Q1-Q3 2025 is estimated to be between 3.8 billion to 4.1 billion yuan, representing an increase of 1.73 billion to 2.03 billion yuan compared to the same period last year, which is a year-on-year increase of 83.9% to 98.5% [1] - The expected net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is forecasted to be between 3.78 billion to 4.08 billion yuan, with an increase of 1.69 billion to 1.99 billion yuan year-on-year, translating to a growth of 80.5% to 94.8% [1] Operational Strategy - The company has focused on optimizing its production layout and strengthening core technological advancements, which have contributed to the substantial profit increase [1] - Enhanced management practices have also played a role in improving profitability alongside favorable market conditions, particularly the rise in gold prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Gold is expected to achieve a net profit of 3.8 billion to 4.1 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, marking an increase of 1.73 billion to 2.03 billion yuan compared to the same period last year, representing a growth of 83.9% to 98.5% [1] Company Performance - Shandong Gold's performance in 2025 is driven by rising gold prices, with international gold prices reaching a historical high of 4,170 USD per ounce [1] - The company has optimized production layout and enhanced operational efficiency, leading to improved production efficiency and resource utilization [1] - Other gold companies, such as Zijin Mining and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, have also reported significant profit increases, with Zijin Mining's net profit reaching 23.292 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 54.4% year-on-year increase [2] Industry Trends - The gold industry is experiencing a broad increase in profits, primarily due to high gold prices, which have risen approximately 45% in 2025, and improved production efficiency among leading companies [2] - The Chinese gold market is projected to exceed 1.2 trillion yuan in 2025 and may reach 1.8 trillion yuan by 2030, with an annual compound growth rate of 7% to 9% [2] - On the supply side, domestic gold mine production is expected to stabilize between 350 tons and 380 tons, with an increasing reliance on imports, potentially exceeding 60% [3] - Investment-type gold products are anticipated to grow at a rate of 12%, significantly outpacing the 5% growth rate of gold jewelry [3]

截至2025年10月14日收盘，山东黄金（600547）报收于42.89元，较前一交易日下跌1.63%，最新总市值为1977.2亿元。该股当日开盘45.3元，最高 45.88元，最低41.7元，成交额达39.42亿元，换手率为2.47%。 《山东黄金矿业股份有限公司2025年前三季度业绩预增公告》 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。 近日，山东黄金发布2025年前三季度业绩预增公告。公告显示，经初步测算，公司预计2025年1-3季度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润为38.0亿 元至41.0亿元，同比增加83.9%到98.5%；扣除非经常性损益后的净利润为37.8亿元至40.8亿元，同比增加80.5%到94.8%。上年同期归属于母公司 所有者的净利润为20.66亿元，扣除非经常性损益后的净利润为20.94亿元。业绩增长主要因公司优化生产布局，提升管理水平和运营效能，叠加黄 金价格上行。公司加大基础工程投入，调整矿山边际品位，推进采掘外委转自营，增强设备与人员配置。本次业绩未经注册会计师审计，具体数 据以正式披露的2025年1- ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the non-ferrous metals industry as "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector [14]. Core Insights - The report forecasts that key companies in the non-ferrous metals sector will see significant earnings growth in Q3 2025, with companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum expected to achieve over 50% year-on-year growth [3][7]. - The performance growth is primarily driven by rising metal prices and increased production and sales volumes [3]. - The report highlights the impact of recent economic events, such as the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and government shutdown, on gold prices, suggesting a long-term upward trend for gold due to low domestic reserves in China [5]. - Industrial metals like copper are expected to see price increases due to supply constraints from incidents like the mudslide at Freeport's Grasberg mine [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring supply-side adjustments and export demand in the steel sector, recommending stable dividend-paying stocks [5]. Summary by Sections Q3 2025 Earnings Forecast - Companies with over 50% year-on-year growth include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Shandong Gold [3]. - Companies with 20-50% growth include Huayou Cobalt and Baosteel [3]. - Companies with 0-20% growth include Shengda Resources and Western Mining [3]. Precious Metals - The report notes that gold prices are expected to rise due to interest rate cuts and geopolitical uncertainties, recommending stocks like Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold [5]. - Silver is also highlighted as a potential investment due to a favorable gold-silver ratio [5]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices are projected to increase due to supply disruptions, with companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum recommended [5]. - Aluminum prices are expected to rise as domestic production capacity becomes constrained [5]. Steel Sector - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable earnings and potential for valuation recovery, such as Baosteel and Hesteel [5]. Minor Metals - Cobalt prices are expected to remain strong due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with Huayou Cobalt recommended [5]. - Lithium supply is currently more relaxed, with attention on changes in Yichun's mica mines [5]. Growth Cycle Investment Analysis - The report recommends investing in stable supply-demand sectors within the new energy manufacturing industry, highlighting companies like Huafeng Aluminum and Asia-Pacific Technology [5].

官 2025 年 10 月 14 日 有色金属行业 2025 年三季度业绩前瞻 相关研究 证券分析师 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 (8621)23297818× quozy@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 2025 三季度业绩前瞻: 我们对重点公司 2025 三季度业绩进行预测，2025 年前三季度业绩同比增速在 50%以上的有紫金 O 矿业、洛阳铝业、山东黄金、赤峰黄金、中金黄金、山金国际、株冶集团、湖南黄金、金诚信、 金力永磁，同比增速在 20-50%区间的有华友钻业、宝钢股份、南钢股份、华菱钢铁、久立特材, 同比增速在 0-20%区间的有盛达资源、西部矿业、华峰铝业、云铝股份、天山铝业、中信特钢, 业绩增长主要受益于相关金属价格同比上涨、产销量同比增长；2025Q3 业绩环比增速在 50%以 上的有盛达资源、铜陵有色、金力永磁，在 20-50%区间的有山东黄金、赤峰黄金、湖南黄金，在 0-20%区间的有紫金矿业、山金国际、株冶集团、金诚信、西部矿业、华峰铝业、云铝股份、天 山铝业、新疆众和、华友钻业、 ...

预计2025年1-3季度实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益后的净利润为人民币37.8亿元至人民 币40.8亿元，与上年同期相比增加人民币16.9亿元到人民币19.9亿元，同比增加80.5%到94.8%。 2025年1-3季度，公司统筹优化生产布局，强化核心技术攻关，提升精细管理水平，在科学匹配项目建 设的同时，显著提升运营效能，实现生产效率与资源利用率、项目建设速度的协同提升，同时叠加黄金 价格上行因素，公司利润同比涨幅较大。 山东黄金（600547）(01787)发布公告，公司预计2025年1-3季度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润为人 民币38.0亿元至人民币41.0亿元，与上年同期相比增加人民币17.3亿元到人民币20.3亿元，同比增加 83.9%到98.5%。 ...

预计2025年1-3季度实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益后的净利润为人民币37.8亿元至人民 币40.8亿元，与上年同期相比增加人民币16.9亿元到人民币19.9亿元，同比增加80.5%到94.8%。 智通财经APP讯，山东黄金(01787)发布公告，公司预计2025年1-3季度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利 润为人民币38.0亿元至人民币41.0亿元，与上年同期相比增加人民币17.3亿元到人民币20.3亿元，同比增 加83.9%到98.5%。 2025年1-3季度，公司统筹优化生产布局，强化核心技术攻关，提升精细管理水平，在科学匹配项目建 设的同时，显著提升运营效能，实现生产效率与资源利用率、项目建设速度的协同提升，同时叠加黄金 价格上行因素，公司利润同比涨幅较大。 ...

格隆汇10月14日丨山东黄金(01787.HK)公告，公司预计2025年1-3季度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利 润为人民币38.0亿元至人民币41.0亿元，与上年同期相比增加人民币17.3亿元到人民币20.3亿元，同比增 加83.9%到98.5%。 预计2025年1-3季度实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益后的净利润为人民币37.8亿元至人民 币40.8亿元，与上年同期相比增加人民币16.9亿元到人民币19.9亿元，同比增加80.5%到94.8% ...