Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold - The weakening of the US dollar credit remains the core logic for gold pricing in 2025, with a notable negative correlation between gold prices and the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves [11][12] - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue its rate-cutting cycle into 2026, which may support gold prices, especially with concerns over the independence of monetary policy due to potential changes in leadership [13][15] - The long-term trend of weakening US dollar credit is not expected to change, with the US fiscal deficit projected to reach 6.9% of GDP in 2024, indicating ongoing structural issues in the US fiscal system [16][17] Group 2: Industrial Metals - Supply constraints for copper are expected to intensify, with significant disruptions in overseas copper mining projects leading to a projected decrease in output by over 100,000 tons in 2025 [23][24] - The demand for copper is anticipated to grow significantly due to the rise of AI and data centers, with each MW of installed capacity requiring approximately 27 tons of copper [27][28] - The macroeconomic environment, characterized by a weak dollar and continued rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, is expected to drive copper prices upward [29][31] Group 3: Energy Metals - The supply of lithium and cobalt is expected to improve significantly due to the end of overseas capacity clearances and the implementation of supply constraint policies by major producing countries [33] - The demand for energy metals is projected to benefit from the resilience of battery technologies and the growth of the energy storage sector, leading to a positive supply-demand dynamic [33][34] Group 4: Tin - The supply of tin is tightening due to regulatory changes in Indonesia and ongoing production disruptions in Myanmar, with exports from Indonesia declining by approximately 20% year-on-year [45][46] - The global demand for refined tin is expected to grow, particularly in the electronics sector, driven by high semiconductor sales and the increasing use of tin solder in AI and high-performance computing applications [51]

行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 相关研究 - 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 07 日 供应格局趋紧，工业金属价格大幅 上行 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报 20251201-20251205 本期投资提示： 行 业 点 评 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 证 有色金属 、 ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 0.37% ...

证券之星消息，12月5日，全指材料（000987）指数报收于4681.4点，涨2.13%，成交1256.67亿元，换手 率1.57%。当日该指数成份股中，上涨的有137家，国际复材以20.03%的涨幅领涨，下跌的有24家，多氟 多以2.46%的跌幅领跌。 全指材料（000987）指数十大成份股详情如下： | 证券代码 | 股票简称 | 权重 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 | 总市值(亿元) | | 所属行业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | sh601899 | 紫金矿业 | 11.36% | 31.32 | 2.05% | | 8324.09 | 有色金属 | | sh600309 | 万华化学 | 3.05% | 69.98 | 3.40% | | 2190.70 | 基础化工 | | sh603993 | 洛阳辑业 | 2.75% | 18.42 | 2.90% | | 3940.83 | 有色金属 | | sh600111 | 北方稀土 | 2.75% | 47.33 | 1.44% | | 1711.01 | 有色金属 | | sz ...

Core Insights - The precious metals sector experienced a slight increase of 0.12% on December 5, with Xiaocheng Technology leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3902.81, up 0.7%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13147.68, up 1.08% [1] Precious Metals Sector Performance - Xiaocheng Technology (300139) saw a significant rise of 14.62%, closing at 27.28 with a trading volume of 905,700 shares and a transaction value of 2.424 billion [1] - Sichuan Gold (001337) increased by 4.16%, closing at 28.03 with a trading volume of 161,100 shares [1] - Other notable performers included Hengbang Shares (002237) up 3.56%, Western Gold (601069) up 3.53%, and Zhongjin Gold (600489) up 3.25% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The precious metals sector saw a net inflow of 464 million in main funds, while retail funds experienced a net outflow of 28.84 million [1] - Xiaocheng Technology had a main fund net inflow of 2.441 billion, but retail funds saw a net outflow of 16.54 million [2] - Other companies like Zhongjin Gold and Chifeng Gold also experienced mixed capital flows, with varying levels of net inflow and outflow from main and retail investors [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the non-ferrous metal industry index is experiencing a strong upward trend, driven by rising prices of industrial metals like copper and aluminum, with expectations of sustained price increases in the long term [1] - As of December 5, 2025, the non-ferrous metal industry index (399395) rose by 1.10%, with notable increases in stocks such as Zhongfu Industrial (600595) up 8.21%, Nanshan Aluminum (600219) up 6.72%, and Shenhuo Co. (000933) up 4.42% [1] - The non-ferrous ETF fund (159880) also saw an increase of 0.79%, marking its third consecutive rise, with the latest price reported at 1.79 yuan [1] Group 2 - Factors such as the demand from new energy vehicles, data centers, and the renewal of power grids in Europe and the US are expected to significantly increase the demand for copper and aluminum [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the non-ferrous metal industry index as of November 28, 2025, include Zijin Mining (601899), Luoyang Molybdenum (603993), and Northern Rare Earth (600111), collectively accounting for 52.34% of the index [2] - The non-ferrous ETF fund closely tracks the non-ferrous metal industry index, which reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the non-ferrous metal sector on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [1]

| 代码 | 名称 | 涨幅%v | 现价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300139 | 晓程科技 | +13.45% | 27.00 | | 601069 | 西部黄金 | +1.67% | 26.24 | | 001337 | 四川黄金 | +1.45% | 27.30 | | 002237 | 恒邦股份 | +1.34% | 12.82 | | 600489 | 中金黄金 | +0.68% | 22.28 | | 000506 | 招金黄金 | +0.60% | 11.81 | | 002155 | 湖南黄金 | +0.48% | 21.12 | | 002716 | 湖南自银 | +0.31% | 6.40 | | 600988 | 赤峰黄金 | +0.49% | 30.52 | | 600547 | 山东黄金 | +0.45% | 35.83 | 编辑 ｜ 钉钉 12月5日早盘， 贵金属板块领涨，黄金方向发力 ，截至发稿，晓程科技涨超13%，西部黄金、四川黄 金、中金黄金、湖南黄金等纷纷走高。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals sector is leading the market, with significant gains in gold-related stocks, particularly highlighted by the performance of Xiaocheng Technology, which surged over 13% [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Xiaocheng Technology (300139) experienced a notable increase of 13.45%, reaching a price of 27.00 [2]. - Western Gold (601069) rose by 1.67%, with a current price of 26.24 [2]. - Sichuan Gold (001337) saw a gain of 1.45%, priced at 27.30 [2]. - Hengbang Shares (002237) increased by 1.34%, now at 12.82 [2]. - Zhongjin Gold (600489) had a modest rise of 0.68%, priced at 22.28 [2]. - Zhaojin Gold (000506) grew by 0.60%, with a current price of 11.81 [2]. - Hunan Gold (002155) increased by 0.48%, now at 21.12 [2]. - Hunan Silver (002716) saw a slight rise of 0.31%, priced at 6.40 [2]. - Chifeng Gold (600988) increased by 0.49%, with a price of 30.52 [2]. - Shandong Gold (600547) rose by 0.45%, currently priced at 35.83 [2].

12月4日，港股三大指数再度冲高，恒生科技指数一度涨至2%，最终收涨1.45%重回5600点上方，恒生 指数涨0.68%报25935点，国企指数涨0.86%报9106点。 五矿期货研报认为，地缘层面仍有一定逆风因素，不过市场关注点更多转向美联储议息会议，降息概率 提高使得情绪面偏暖。产业上看铜原料供应维持紧张格局，冶炼减产预期推动铜价走势较强，短期供应 则有边际增加预期，在下游开工率仍有支撑的情况下，铜价有望维持偏强运行。 午后大型科技股集体转涨带动大市冲高，小米涨超4%，美团涨超2%，腾讯、阿里巴巴、百度均上涨。 药品类股集体强势，创新药板块领涨，歌礼制药涨超11%，药明合联、药明生物均涨超7%。 半导体芯片股走势活跃，中芯国际、华虹半导体涨超3%。市场消息称寒武纪计划在2026年将其AI芯片 产量提升到目前的三倍。 机器人概念股普涨，三花智控（002050）涨超7%，地平线机器人涨近7%；消息面上，特斯拉发布 Optimus机器人跑步视频展示运动控制技术突破。 港股黄金、铜、铝等有色金属股多数出现高开低走行情，中国有色矿业跌超4%，山东黄金（600547） 跌超3%。 铜价创下历史新高后，高盛集团对铜价飙 ...

值得注意的是，菲律宾与俄罗斯央行此前先后释放抛售黄金意向。紫金天风期货此前表示，菲律宾抛售 行为属外汇管理范畴，并非战略转向；俄罗斯出售黄金储备成为缓解预算压力的现实选择。该行指出， 个别央行的战术调整，并不足以扭转全球储备体系向多元化、非中心化演进的结构性趋势。 黄金股跌幅扩大，截至发稿，山东黄金(01787)跌3.78%，报34.14港元；中国白银集团(00815)跌1.41%， 报0.7港元；赤峰黄金(06693)跌2.1%，报29.78港元；潼关黄金(00340)跌1.84%，报2.67港元。 消息面上，欧洲央行已要求意大利政府重新审视其推动将该国黄金储备宣布为意大利人民财产的提案， 此举最终可能导致意大利政府出售部分黄金储备。意大利央行持有黄金储备2452吨，为全球第三大黄金 储备。 ...

消息面上，欧洲央行已要求意大利政府重新审视其推动将该国黄金储备宣布为意大利人民财产的提案， 此举最终可能导致意大利政府出售部分黄金储备。意大利央行持有黄金储备2452吨，为全球第三大黄金 储备。 值得注意的是，菲律宾与俄罗斯央行此前先后释放抛售黄金意向。紫金天风期货此前表示，菲律宾抛售 行为属外汇管理范畴，并非战略转向；俄罗斯出售黄金储备成为缓解预算压力的现实选择。该行指出， 个别央行的战术调整，并不足以扭转全球储备体系向多元化、非中心化演进的结构性趋势。 智通财经APP获悉，黄金股跌幅扩大，截至发稿，山东黄金(01787)跌3.78%，报34.14港元；中国白银集 团(00815)跌1.41%，报0.7港元；赤峰黄金(06693)跌2.1%，报29.78港元；潼关黄金(00340)跌1.84%，报 2.67港元。 ...