国投 证券研报指出， 山东黄金预计实现归母净利润46~49亿元，同比+56%~66%。2025年公司确定的生 产经营计划是黄金产量不低于50吨（包含 山金国际目标8吨），前三季度完成75.6%。公司加大井巷开 拓工程等生产性投入，持续强化矿山深部及周边探矿，科学提升在建矿山建设进度。央行和etf资金积 极增持黄金，美元信用担忧仍存，持续看好金价中长期上涨趋势。公司矿产金生产稳步推进，看好金价 上涨提振公司业绩表现。目前股价对应PE 44.6、23.1、19.7倍，维持"买入-A"评级，6个月目标价59.1 元/股，对应26年PE约30倍。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the performance of the Invesco ETF (560290) in the non-ferrous metals sector, with a current opening price of 0.948 yuan and a 0.00% change [1] - The major holdings of the Invesco ETF include Zijin Mining, which opened up by 0.91%, and other companies like China Aluminum and Shandong Gold, which also showed positive movements [1] - The fund's performance benchmark is the CSI Nonferrous Metals Mining Theme Index, and since its establishment on January 26, 2026, it has recorded a return of -5.23% [1] Group 2 - The fund is managed by Invesco Great Wall Fund Management Co., with the fund manager being Gong Lili [1] - The article provides a detailed list of the opening price changes for various stocks within the ETF, indicating a mixed performance among the holdings [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the long-term logic of the precious metals bull market remains solid, with gold's role shifting from an inflation hedge to a geopolitical risk and dollar credit weakening hedge [1][22]. - As of the end of January, China's official gold reserves reached 74.19 million ounces, an increase of 40,000 ounces compared to December 2025, marking the 15th consecutive month of gold accumulation by the People's Bank of China [1][17]. - The precious metals market is influenced by factors such as global central bank gold purchases, a weakening dollar, and the restructuring of the global monetary system [1][22]. Group 2 - The non-ferrous mining ETF tracks the upstream mining segment of the non-ferrous metal industry, showing strong price elasticity and higher beta values, particularly in commodity bull markets or inflationary environments [2]. - The non-ferrous mining index has achieved a cumulative increase of 279.71% over the past decade, outperforming mainstream non-ferrous indices [2][12]. - The index's annualized return over the past decade is 14.71%, with a volatility of 30.04% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.63, indicating a favorable risk-adjusted return [15]. Group 3 - The non-ferrous mining index is heavily weighted towards copper, gold, and aluminum, which together account for over 58% of the index [7]. - Key components of the index include Zijin Mining (9.44% weight), Luoyang Molybdenum (9.25% weight), and Northern Rare Earth (5.69% weight) [10]. - The index's performance is characterized by higher elasticity compared to similar indices, reflecting its strategic significance in both industrial development and financial markets [12][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony industries [10][12]. Core Views - The demand for copper and aluminum has weakened as the Spring Festival approaches, leading to stable prices in these metals [6][9]. - The gold market is supported by the Federal Reserve's ongoing interest rate cuts, which are expected to continue throughout the year [10]. - The report highlights a tightening supply for copper, which is expected to support prices [10]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector (Shenwan) has shown a performance of +3.3% over 1 month, +24.2% over 3 months, and +102.0% over 12 months, outperforming the CSI 300 index [3]. 2. Price and Inventory Data - Copper prices: LME copper closed at $12,900 per ton, down 4.02% from January 30, while SHFE copper closed at ¥99,810 per ton, down 3.26% [6]. - Aluminum prices: Domestic electrolytic aluminum prices are at ¥23,110 per ton, down ¥1,530 from January 30 [8]. - Inventory levels: LME copper inventory is at 183,275 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 8,300 tons, while SHFE copper inventory is at 248,911 tons, up 15,907 tons [6]. 3. Downstream Demand - The operating rate for domestic refined copper rod production is 69.07%, down 0.47 percentage points, while the operating rate for aluminum profiles is 36.0%, down 8.3 percentage points [8][9]. - The report notes that as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream processing enterprises are beginning to shut down, leading to a decline in demand [9]. 4. Recommendations for Individual Stocks - Recommended stocks in the gold sector include Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, and China National Gold International [12]. - In the copper sector, recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Western Mining, and Jincheng Mining [12]. - For aluminum, recommended stocks include Shenhuo Co., Yunnan Aluminum, and Tianshan Aluminum [12]. - In the tin sector, recommended stocks include Tin Industry Co. and Huaxi Nonferrous [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Non-ferrous Metals ETF Fund (516650), which opened with a gain of 1.90% at 2.145 yuan [1] - Major holdings in the Non-ferrous Metals ETF include Zijin Mining, which rose by 3.50%, and other companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and Huayou Cobalt, which also experienced gains [1] - The fund's performance benchmark is the CSI Sub-Industry Non-ferrous Metals Theme Index return, managed by Huaxia Fund Management Co., with a return of 110.83% since its inception on June 9, 2021, and a 4.15% return over the past month [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the performance of the Penghua Nonferrous ETF (159880), which opened with a gain of 2.06% at 2.233 yuan [1] - Major holdings in the ETF include Zijin Mining, which rose by 3.50%, and other companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum (2.14%), Northern Rare Earth (2.97%), and Huayou Cobalt (1.49%) [1] - The ETF's performance benchmark is the National Index of Nonferrous Metals Industry, managed by Penghua Fund Management Co., Ltd., with a return of 118.94% since its inception on March 8, 2021, and a 5.03% return over the past month [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Huabao Nonferrous ETF (159876), which opened with a gain of 2.07% at 1.135 yuan on February 9 [1] - Major holdings of the Huabao Nonferrous ETF include Zijin Mining, which rose by 3.50%, Luoyang Molybdenum by 2.14%, Northern Rare Earth by 2.97%, and others, indicating a positive trend in the nonferrous metals sector [1] - The Huabao Nonferrous ETF has a performance benchmark of the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index return, managed by Huabao Fund Management Co., with a return of 122.52% since its establishment on March 12, 2021, and a recent one-month return of 4.76% [1]

行 业 及 产 业 有色金属 2026 年 02 月 09 日 相关研究 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 价格波动较大，向好趋势不改 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报 20260202-20260206 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 - ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 iFind，环比上周 1）上证指数下跌 1.27%，深证成指下跌 2.11%，沪深 300 下跌 1.33%，有色金属（申 万）指数下跌 8.51%，跑输沪深 300 指数 7.18 个百分点。2）分子板块看，环比上周，贵金属下跌 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the non-ferrous metal mining ETF, which opened with a gain of 1.94% at 2.254 yuan on February 9 [1] - Major holdings in the non-ferrous metal mining ETF include Zijin Mining, which rose by 3.50%, Luoyang Molybdenum by 2.14%, Northern Rare Earth by 2.97%, and others showing positive gains [1] - The ETF's performance benchmark is the CSI Non-Ferrous Metals Mining Theme Index return, managed by China Merchants Fund Management Co., with a return of 121.32% since its establishment on June 21, 2023, and a 5.62% return over the past month [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Silverhua ETF (159871), which opened with a gain of 1.39% at 1.097 yuan on February 9 [1] - Major holdings in the Silverhua ETF include Zijin Mining, which rose by 3.50%, Luoyang Molybdenum by 2.14%, Northern Rare Earth by 2.97%, and others, indicating a positive trend in the sector [1] - The performance benchmark for the Silverhua ETF is the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index return, managed by Silverhua Fund Management Co., with a return of 116.82% since its inception on March 10, 2021, and a 4.72% return over the past month [1]