Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2] Core Views - Precious metals are expected to continue their upward trend, with gold prices rising by 0.53% and silver prices by 4.07% in the week of July 7-11, 2025. The gold-silver ratio has reached a maximum of over 100 this year, indicating potential for further increases in silver prices as gold prices stabilize [4] - Industrial metal prices are on the rise, with fluctuations in copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel prices noted. The report highlights a significant discrepancy between Indonesia's nickel production quotas and actual output due to seasonal weather impacts [4] - Rare earth prices, particularly praseodymium-neodymium oxides, have increased, driven by a recovery in manufacturing demand. Tungsten prices are also rising, indicating a steady growth in demand for tungsten in production tools [4] - Energy metals show mixed trends, with lithium prices increasing while cobalt and nickel prices are declining. The report emphasizes the need to monitor future demand growth for energy metals [4] - The report recommends investing in the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly in precious metals, as the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle, and domestic monetary policies are expected to support growth [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review 1.1 Precious Metals - Gold prices have shown a consistent upward trend, with the gold-silver ratio indicating potential for silver price increases [4][5] 1.2 Industrial Metals - The report provides a detailed overview of price changes for various industrial metals, noting specific percentage changes for copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel [27] 1.3 Minor Metals - Prices for rare earth metals and tungsten have increased, reflecting a recovery in manufacturing and steady demand growth [28][31] 1.4 Energy Metals - Lithium prices are rising, while cobalt and nickel prices are declining, highlighting the need for ongoing monitoring of energy metal demand [34] 2. Market Data - The report notes that the non-ferrous metals sector has seen a 1.02% increase, with specific sectors like metal new materials and precious metals showing significant gains [35] 3. Important Events Review - The report highlights significant developments in the industry, including the successful launch of a new aluminum electrolysis production line and the planned expansion of an electrolytic aluminum project [41][42]

2025 年 07 月 14 日 白银价格大幅上行，金银比或迎来向下修复期 推荐(维持) 投资要点 | 分析师：傅鸿浩 | S1050521120004 | | --- | --- | | fuhh@cfsc.com.cn | | | 分析师：杜飞 | S1050523070001 | | dufei2@cfsc.com.cn | | 行业相对表现 表现 1M 3M 12M 有色金属(申万) 3.4 12.0 16.7 沪深 300 3.9 6.8 15.6 市场表现 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 (%) 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 冲突引爆资金涌入，贵金属强势上 行》2025-06-16 ▌贵金属：白银价格大幅上行，金银比或迎来向下 修复期 价格方面，周内伦敦黄金价格为 3352.10 美元/盎司，环比 7 月 4 日+20.20 美元/盎司，涨幅为 0.61%。周内伦敦白银价格 为 37.5 美元/盎司，环比 7 月 4 日+0.62 美元/盎司，涨幅为 1.70%。 本周美联储发布 6 月议息会议纪要，FOMC 官员对于降息的 分歧加大。分歧主要集中在对美国通胀的看法 ...

行 业 及 产 业 有色金属 2025 年 07 月 13 日 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 (8621)23297818× guozy@swsresearch.com 美国铜关税超预期，关注供需支撑 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报20250707-20250711 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 1.09%，深证成指上涨 1.78%，沪深 300 上涨 0.82%，有色金属（申万）指数上涨 1.02% ...

有色金属周报 20250713 美进口关税扰动铜价，金银价格企稳上行 2025 年 07 月 13 日 ➢ 本周（07/07-07/11）上证综指上涨 1.09%，沪深 300 指数上涨 0.82%，SW 有 色指数上涨 1.02%，贵金属 COMEX 黄金变动+1.03%，COMEX 白银变动+5.49%。 工业金属 LME 铝、铜、锌、铅、镍、锡价格分别变动+0.17%、-1.92%、+0.09%、- 1.94%、-0.16%、-0.61%，工业金属库存 LME 铝、铜、锌、铅、镍、锡分别变动 +9.99%、15.27%、-6.30%、-5.28%、+1.83%、-6.64%。 ➢ 工业金属：美国大幅提升铜进口关税，Comex 和 LME、上交所铜价走势分化， 国补政策刺激国内宏观持续向好，看好工业金属价格。铜方面，美国宣布 8 月可能提高 进口关税到 50%，Comex 铜价大幅上行，同时贸易流的改变也打压了 LME 和上交所 铜价。本周 SMM 进口铜精矿指数（周）报-43.79 美元/吨，环比增加 0.46 美元/吨。 需求端开工继续下行，SMM 铜线缆企业开工率 71.52%，环比上升 3.7pc ...

Group 1 - The meeting between Shandong Provincial Geological and Mineral Bureau and Inner Mongolia Shanjin Geological Exploration Company focused on enhancing cooperation and communication in geological exploration and drilling projects [1][2] - Both parties acknowledged the successful collaboration over the past three years and expressed intentions to leverage their professional strengths for mutual benefits in future projects [1] - The Shandong Provincial Geological and Mineral Bureau emphasized its commitment to high-quality geological exploration and achieving breakthroughs in mineral discovery strategies [1] Group 2 - Safety management in drilling operations was highlighted, with a focus on fire and lightning prevention, ensuring that safety personnel fulfill their responsibilities [2] - The company established a mechanism for identifying and rectifying safety hazards to ensure efficient and orderly project advancement [2] - The leadership expressed appreciation for the frontline workers' dedication and provided them with care packages as part of the "Summer Cooling" initiative [2]

Index Performance - The CSI A500 Index rose by 0.96% this week, closing at 4707.08 points on July 11, marking three consecutive weeks of gains [6] - The average daily trading volume for the week was 4067.87 billion yuan, with a week-on-week increase of 10.89% [6] Component Stocks Performance - The top ten gainers this week included: 1. Zhongyou Capital (000617.SZ) with a gain of 27.78% 2. Quzhou Development (600208.SH) with a gain of 23.67% 3. Northern Rare Earth (600111.SH) with a gain of 21.66% 4. Shenghe Resources (600392.SH) with a gain of 18.99% 5. Harbin Investment (600864.SH) with a gain of 16.36% 6. China Rare Earth (000831.SZ) with a gain of 16.31% 7. Baogang Group (600010.SH) with a gain of 15.47% 8. New Town Holdings (601155.SH) with a gain of 12.98% 9. JA Solar Technology (002459.SZ) with a gain of 12.56% 10. Sungrow Power Supply (300274.SZ) with a gain of 12.50% [4] - The top ten losers included: 1. Huahai Pharmaceutical (600521.SH) with a loss of 9.50% 2. Kelun Pharmaceutical (002422.SZ) with a loss of 8.61% 3. Baillie Gifford (688506.SH) with a loss of 8.43% 4. Junshi Biosciences (688180.SH) with a loss of 7.54% 5. Dongpeng Beverage (605499.SH) with a loss of 6.30% 6. Yingfeng Environment (000967.SZ) with a loss of 5.94% 7. Ziwen Mining (601899.SH) with a loss of 5.79% 8. Juhua Group (600160.SH) with a loss of 5.62% 9. Shandong Gold (600547.SH) with a loss of 5.41% 10. Pudong Development Bank (600000.SH) with a loss of 5.35% [4] Fund Performance - All 38 CSI A500 funds collectively rose this week, with the top performer being the Fortune Fund, which increased by 1.48% [7] - The total scale of these funds reached 1985.44 billion yuan, with the top three being Huatai-PineBridge (189.17 billion yuan), Guotai (178.43 billion yuan), and GF Fund (171.80 billion yuan) [7] Market Insights - Recent reports indicate that the A-share market has broken through key levels, moving away from a "full reduction" mindset, with structural expansion observed [8] - The bond market is experiencing low interest rates and volatility, facing strong resistance both upwards and downwards [8] - The report suggests that the second half of the year will see an influx of incremental capital, driving the market to a new level, with insurance capital leading the way [8] - The technology sector is highlighted as having high probability and return potential due to industry trends and supportive policies [8] - Consumer data shows signs of improvement, with macroeconomic indicators reflecting positive trends, particularly in discretionary consumption [9]

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Index for the subdivided non-ferrous metal industry has shown significant growth, with a 3.10% increase over the past month and a 13.89% increase year-to-date, indicating a strong performance in this sector [1][2]. Group 1: Index Performance - The China Securities Index for subdivided non-ferrous metals rose by 1.28% to 6711.19 points, with a trading volume of 39.135 billion yuan [1]. - The index has increased by 13.83% over the past three months [1]. - The index is composed of seven sub-indices, reflecting the overall performance of larger, more liquid listed companies in related industries [1]. Group 2: Index Composition - The top ten holdings in the index include Zijin Mining (15.24%), Northern Rare Earth (5.39%), and Luoyang Molybdenum (4.48%) [1]. - The index's holdings are primarily concentrated in the Shanghai Stock Exchange (64.67%) and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (35.33%) [1]. Group 3: Industry Breakdown - The index's sample holdings are predominantly in the raw materials sector (99.39%), with a small representation in the industrial sector (0.61%) [2]. - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with changes implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December [2]. Group 4: Related Funds - Public funds tracking the subdivided non-ferrous metal index include several products from Huaxia and Huitianfu, indicating investor interest in this sector [2].

晨会纪要（2025/07/09） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 晨会纪要（2025/07/09） 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.07.09） 固定收益研究 收益率下行，评级利差普遍处于历史低位——信用债周报 行业研究 中央财经委会议释放"反内卷"新信号——金属行业 7 月投资策略展望 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 城投债方面，稳增长和防系统性风险的背景下，城投违约的可能性很低，城投债仍可作为信用债重点配置 品种。城投债大势将由化债与发展的合力决定，短期信用风险无虞，现阶段城投债策略依然可以积极。; 2、风险提示 固定收益研究 收益率下行，评级利差普遍处于历史低位——信用债周报 李济安（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150522060001） 王哲语（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150524070001） 1、核心观点 本期（6 月 30 日至 7 月 6 日）交易商协会公布的发行指导利率多数下行，整体变化幅度为-14 BP ...

港股有色金属概念盘初走弱，洛阳钼业(03993.HK)跌超6%，山东黄金(01787.HK)、招金矿业 (01818.HK)、中国宏桥(01378.HK)、灵宝黄金(03330.HK)等个股跟跌。 ...

从中证800原材料主题指数持仓样本的行业来看，有色金属占比50.67%、化工占比32.62%、钢铁占比 8.63%、非金属材料占比6.87%、造纸与包装占比1.22%。 资料显示，指数样本每半年调整一次，样本调整实施时间分别为每年6月和12月的第二个星期五的下一 交易日。权重因子随样本定期调整而调整，调整时间与指数样本定期调整实施时间相同。在下一个定期 调整日前，权重因子一般固定不变。特殊情况下将对指数进行临时调整。当样本退市时，将其从指数样 本中剔除。样本公司发生收购、合并、分拆等情形的处理，参照计算与维护细则处理。 从指数持仓来看，中证800原材料主题指数十大权重分别为：紫金矿业（12.74%）、万华化学 （4.0%）、盐湖股份（2.48%）、宝钢股份（2.47%）、北方稀土（2.41%）、洛阳钼业（2.31%）、山 东黄金（2.28%）、中国铝业（2.18%）、海螺水泥（2.09%）、华友钴业（1.99%）。 从中证800原材料主题指数持仓的市场板块来看，上海证券交易所占比65.19%、深圳证券交易所占比 34.81%。 金融界7月8日消息，上证指数高开高走，中证800原材料主题指数 (800材料主题， ...