中国银河（601881）证券表示，后续来看，"金九银十"需求有望继续增长，但在终端市场疲软情况下， 预计增幅有限；因考虑到冬季将迎来较长时间错峰停窑，且叠加当下需求边际改善，预计水泥企业将继 续积极推涨水泥价格，此外，煤价存上涨预期，将进一步对水泥价格形成支撑。此外，该行认为，"反 内卷"加速推进行业供给优化，供需矛盾有望缓和，水泥价格存推涨预期，区域龙头企业盈利有望修 复。 水泥股全线回落，截至发稿，金隅集团（601992）(02009)跌5.49%，报0.86港元；西部水泥(02233)跌 4.12%，报3.26港元；海螺水泥（600585）(00914)跌3.92%，报24港元；中国建材(03323)跌3.85%，报 5.5港元；华新水泥（600801）(06655)跌1.59%，报16.73港元。 申万宏源研报指出，三季度是水泥行业传统淡季，2025年水泥价格前高后低。根据数字水泥网，25Q3 水泥均价353.1元/吨，环比下降27.6元/吨，同比下降33.5元/吨，7-8月水泥产量分别同比下降5.5%、 7.0%。水泥行业三季度盈利预计整体承压。9月24日，六部委联合发布《建材行业稳增长工作方案(2 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the building materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has emphasized deepening reforms in the construction industry, focusing on industrialization, digitalization, and greening as development paths. This aims to transition the construction industry from a traditional extensive model to a refined and intelligent one, with key measures including the promotion of prefabricated buildings and the application of construction robots. The ultimate goal is to achieve high-quality development and enhance the quality, efficiency, and sustainability of "Chinese construction" [1] - The report highlights the long-term investment value of the building materials sector, particularly in green building materials and intelligent construction, which are expected to open new growth spaces due to the profound changes driven by the "three transformations" [1] - Recommended stocks in the consumer building materials sector include: Sankeshu (channel penetration, retail expansion), Dongfang Yuhong (waterproof leader, optimized operational structure), Weixing New Materials (high-quality operations, high retail business proportion), and Jianlang Hardware. Beneficiary stocks include: Beixin Building Materials (gypsum board leader, diversified expansion in coatings and waterproof sectors) [1] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The building materials index increased by 2.66% from October 6 to October 10, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.18 percentage points. Over the past three months, the CSI 300 index rose by 14.91%, while the building materials index increased by 14.73%, indicating a slight underperformance of 0.18 percentage points. In the past year, the CSI 300 index rose by 16.55%, and the building materials index increased by 21.26%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.71 percentage points [2][11] Cement Sector - As of October 10, 2025, the average price of P.O42.5 bulk cement nationwide was 287.21 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.26% month-on-month. The price trends varied by region, with increases in Northeast (+0.60%) and Central China (+1.32%), while declines were noted in North China (-1.09%) and East China (-1.57%) [22][25] - The clinker inventory ratio was stable at 67.40% [23] - The report tracks the valuation of listed companies in the cement sector, indicating a need for monitoring [72] Glass Sector - The average spot price of float glass as of October 10, 2025, was 1301.65 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.72%. However, the futures price decreased by 2.86% [76][77] - National float glass inventory increased by 696 million weight boxes, a rise of 13.71% [78][79] Fiberglass Sector - The market price for non-alkali 2400tex direct yarn ranged from 3400 to 4000 yuan/ton, with variations depending on the manufacturer [4] Consumer Building Materials - As of October 10, 2025, the price of crude oil was 65.05 USD/barrel, down 3.59% week-on-week. The price of asphalt remained stable at 4570 yuan/ton, while acrylic acid and titanium dioxide prices showed slight declines [4]

文 | 挖贝网 王思宇 挖贝研究院梳理出"2025年9月安徽A股上市公司市值TOP100"（以下简称"榜单"或"TOP100"）。上榜门槛为市值51亿元，8家公司 市值超过500亿元。排名第一的是阳光电源，市值达3,420.80亿元。 阳光电源（300274.SZ）3,420.80亿元； 科大讯飞（002230.SZ）1,247.16亿元； 海螺水泥（600585.SH）1,237.39亿元； 江淮汽车（600418.SH）1,159.71亿元； 古井贡酒（000596.SZ）846.87亿元； 国轩高科（002074.SZ）830.29亿元； 铜陵有色（000630.SZ）691.93亿元； 晶合集成（688249.SH）675.47亿元； 三七互娱（002555.SZ）480.94亿元； 国元证券（000728.SZ）401.03亿元。 8家公司市值超过500亿元 据挖贝研究院梳理，榜单上的100家企业总市值约2.31万亿元。其中，阳光电源市值3,420.80亿元位居榜首，第二为科大讯飞，市 值1,247.16亿元，海螺水泥排第三市值1,237.39亿元。 从上榜公司市值分布看，TOP100中，市值超过5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The cement sector is showing resilience in the market despite overall declines in A-shares, with significant gains in specific companies like Huaxin Cement and Jinyu Group [1][3]. Market Performance - As of October 10, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3897.03, down 0.94%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index fell by 2.70% and 4.55%, respectively [1][2]. - The cement index increased by 1.84%, with Huaxin Cement and Jinyu Group hitting the daily limit up [3][4]. Sector Analysis - The cement industry is experiencing a potential bottoming out, supported by supply-side production restrictions and demand from infrastructure projects [5]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a plan aimed at improving profitability in the cement sector by 2025-2026 [5]. Regulatory Developments - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment is seeking opinions on the carbon emission trading market's allocation plan for the cement industry, indicating a structured approach to emissions management [4]. Investment Insights - Several cement stocks have seen significant net purchases from financing clients, with notable amounts exceeding 1 billion yuan [6]. - Forecasts indicate that 15 cement stocks are expected to show positive net profit growth in 2025, with some companies projected to double their profits [8][10]. Company Highlights - China Energy Engineering has a comprehensive industrial chain in cement production, with an expected annual output of over 20 million tons [8]. - Wanhua Chemical's net profit for the first three quarters is projected to increase by 69.81% to 109.77% year-on-year [8].

Core Insights - The cement sector has seen a rise of 1.84%, ranking 7th among concept sectors, with 39 stocks increasing in value, including Huaxin Cement and Jinyu Group reaching their daily limit up [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - The top gainers in the cement sector include Shafeng Cement, Wanhui High-tech, and Tibet Tianlu, with increases of 6.07%, 5.10%, and 4.63% respectively [1] - The leading decliners in the sector are Shanghai Construction, AVIC Tianda, and Yinlong Co., with decreases of 2.27%, 1.67%, and 0.46% respectively [1] Group 2: Capital Flow - The cement sector attracted a net inflow of 382 million yuan, with 22 stocks receiving net inflows, and 5 stocks exceeding 30 million yuan in net inflow [2] - Tibet Tianlu led the net inflow with 191 million yuan, followed by Huaxin Cement and Jinyu Group, each with net inflows of 155 million yuan and 101 million yuan respectively [2][3] Group 3: Capital Inflow Ratios - Jinyu Group, Huaxin Cement, and Ningbo Fuda had the highest net inflow ratios at 21.40%, 17.04%, and 8.94% respectively [3] - The top stocks by net inflow in the cement sector include Tibet Tianlu, Huaxin Cement, and Jinyu Group, with respective net inflow amounts of 190.98 million yuan, 155.35 million yuan, and 101.13 million yuan [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - Conch Cement's stock price has shown a positive trend, with a year-to-date increase of 5.69% and a recent uptick in trading activity, indicating strong market interest and potential investor confidence [2][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On October 10, Conch Cement's stock rose by 2.03%, reaching a price of 24.13 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 4.87 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 0.51% [1]. - The stock has increased by 5.69% year-to-date, 5.05% over the last five trading days, 3.03% over the last 20 days, and 7.68% over the last 60 days [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Conch Cement reported a revenue of 41.292 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 9.38%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 31.34% to 4.368 billion CNY [2]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Conch Cement was 224,100, an increase of 7.12% from the previous period [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 83.985 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 17.922 billion CNY distributed over the last three years [3]. Group 4: Institutional Holdings - As of June 30, 2025, major shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 193 million shares, and several ETFs such as Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF and E Fund CSI 300 ETF, which have increased their holdings [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the building materials industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's performance relative to the overall market [2][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the cement industry is experiencing a traditional seasonal downturn in Q3 2025, with prices expected to decline after peaking earlier in the year. The average cement price in Q3 2025 is projected at 353.1 CNY/ton, down 27.6 CNY/ton from the previous quarter and down 33.5% year-on-year [2][3]. - The report notes that while the cement industry's profitability is under pressure, there are ongoing developments in overseas markets, particularly in Africa, where profitability is expected to improve [2]. - In the fiberglass sector, the report indicates that mid-to-high-end product prices are more resilient, with special fabrics contributing positively to profitability. The report anticipates continued differentiation in the fiberglass market, with low-end products facing weaker profitability [2][3]. - The consumer building materials segment is expected to see strong performance from quality companies, particularly in categories like coatings and tiles, as demand in the residential real estate market remains relatively weak [2]. - The glass industry is facing challenges, with photovoltaic glass prices slightly declining and flat glass prices under pressure. The report suggests that the industry may see a shift towards cleaner production methods, which could improve profitability in the coming years [2]. Summary by Sections Cement - Q3 2025 is a traditional off-season for the cement industry, with prices expected to decline after a peak earlier in the year. The average price is projected at 353.1 CNY/ton, down 27.6 CNY/ton from the previous quarter and down 33.5% year-on-year [2][3]. - The industry is expected to face overall profitability pressure, but overseas expansion, particularly in Africa, shows promise for improved earnings [2]. Fiberglass - Mid-to-high-end fiberglass products are showing stronger price resilience, while low-end products are struggling. The report anticipates continued growth in special fabric sales [2][3]. Consumer Building Materials - Quality companies in the consumer building materials sector are expected to stand out, particularly in categories with strong brand value and retail attributes. Price increases in various segments are anticipated to stabilize in Q3 2025 [2]. Glass - The glass industry is experiencing price declines, particularly in photovoltaic and flat glass. The report suggests a potential shift towards cleaner production methods, which may enhance profitability in the future [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with improving Q3 performance expectations and strong fundamentals, including major players in the cement, fiberglass, consumer building materials, and glass sectors [2][3].

Market Overview - The cement sector increased by 2.66% on October 9, with Tianshan Co. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3933.97, up 1.32%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13725.56, up 1.47% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Tianshan Co. (000877) closed at 6.57, up 9.14% with a trading volume of 1.4871 million shares [1] - Qingsong Jianhua (600425) closed at 4.68, up 5.64% with a trading volume of 1.2673 million shares [1] - Xibu Construction (002302) closed at 6.94, up 5.31% with a trading volume of 453,600 shares [1] - Wan Nian Qing (000789) closed at 6.04, up 4.14% with a trading volume of 193,400 shares [1] - Other notable performers include Tapai Group (002233) and Sichuan Jinding (600678), with increases of 2.63% and 2.60% respectively [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The cement sector saw a net inflow of 233 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 62.51 million yuan [2] - Major stocks like Tianshan Co. and Conch Cement (600585) had significant fund flow variations, with Tianshan Co. experiencing a net outflow of 90.91 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Conch Cement had a net inflow of 87.31 million yuan from institutional investors, indicating strong interest [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **Greater China Materials** industry, highlighting a **liquidity-driven bull market** supported by **supply disruptions** that are positively impacting commodity prices. The preference is for **gold, copper, and aluminum equities** in this environment [1][4][10]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Commodity Price Forecasts**: - **Aluminum**: Morgan Stanley forecasts $2,659 per ton for 2H2025, which is 6% higher than consensus. For CY2026, the forecast is $2,750, 8% above consensus [10]. - **Copper**: Expected price of $10,047 per ton for 2H2025, 5% above consensus, and $10,650 for CY2026, 9% above consensus [10]. - **Gold**: Projected at $3,719 per ounce for 2H2025, 9% above consensus, and $4,400 for CY2026, 34% above consensus [10]. - **Steel Demand Drivers**: - The **China Steel Demand Drivers** for 2025 include: - **Machinery**: 30% - **Infrastructure**: 17% - **Residential Property**: 14% - **Auto**: 9% [17][19]. - **Copper Consumption Index**: The **China Copper Consumption Index** indicates a significant reliance on sectors such as **Power (47%)**, **White Goods (15%)**, and **Auto (10%)** [21][22]. - **Aluminum Demand Breakdown**: The **China aluminum demand** is driven by: - **Property**: 22% - **Passenger Vehicles**: 20% - **Grid Investment**: 11% [27]. Additional Important Insights - **Infrastructure Spending**: - Infrastructure spending has partially offset the slowdown in new property starts, with a **5.4% YoY increase** in infrastructure spending for the first eight months of 2025 [35][55]. - **Weekly Shipments**: - Weekly cement and rebar shipments in China are being monitored, indicating trends in demand and supply dynamics [55][56]. - **Market Sentiment**: - The overall sentiment in the materials sector remains **attractive**, with Morgan Stanley's research indicating potential conflicts of interest due to business relationships with covered companies [4][5]. - **Analyst Team**: The call featured insights from a team of equity analysts at Morgan Stanley, emphasizing the importance of their research in investment decision-making [3]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the Greater China Materials industry and its current market dynamics.

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the construction materials sector, indicating expected performance above the market index by more than 10% over the next 6 to 12 months [5][89]. Core Views - The introduction of the "Stabilization Growth Work Plan for the Building Materials Industry (2025-2026)" aims to enhance profitability and strengthen industry management, promoting a competitive environment [1][3]. - Cement prices have seen a significant increase of 1.5% recently, with expectations for further price hikes as companies strive to meet annual growth targets [2][22]. - The glass market is experiencing a slight price increase, supported by downstream replenishment, although demand acceptance at higher prices remains limited [2][37]. - The fiberglass market shows stable pricing for non-alkali yarn, while electronic yarn remains in high demand, indicating a robust market for high-end products [2][54]. Summary by Sections Cement - National cement prices have risen significantly, with a 1.5% increase noted. Companies are expected to continue pushing for price increases as the fourth quarter approaches [2][22]. - The report anticipates that cement companies will maintain upward price momentum to achieve annual growth targets [2][22]. Glass - Float glass prices have shown a slight increase, supported by replenishment from downstream sectors, although the acceptance of high prices is limited [2][37]. - The photovoltaic glass market has seen a slight decline in demand, with inventory levels increasing, but manufacturers are maintaining stable pricing strategies [2][45]. Fiberglass - The price of non-alkali yarn remains stable, with mainstream prices for 2400tex yarn at 3250-3700 CNY/ton, while electronic yarn prices are stable due to high demand in the high-end market [2][54]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the cement and glass sectors due to stricter supply controls and improving profitability. Recommended companies include Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement, and Qibin Group [3][5]. - For fiberglass, companies like China National Materials and China Jushi are highlighted as beneficiaries of structural demand growth [3][5]. - In the construction sector, a recovery in infrastructure investment is anticipated, with recommendations for companies such as China Railway Construction and China State Construction [3][5].