2024年04月26日 公 司点评 公 买入 / 维持 司 舍得酒业(600702) 研 究 目标价: 109.03 昨收盘:72.53 舍得酒业：短期盈利承压，继续夯实进取 事件：公司发布 2024 年一季报，2024Q1 实现营收21.05 亿元，  走势比较 同比+4.13%；归母净利润 5.50 亿元，同比-3.35%；扣非净利润 5.46 亿元，同比-2.53%。 10% 收入符合预期，省内贡献增长。Q1公司酒类产品共实现收入19.64 太 平 (( 26 2% %))62/4/32 8/7/32 91/9/32 1/21/32 21/2/42 52/4/42 亿 17元 .2， 5/2同 .3比 8+ 亿3. 元01 ，%。 分分 别产 同品 比来 +3看 .， 3%2 /0 +024 .9Q1 %，中 品高 味档 舍酒 得/普 以通 挺酒 价实 为现 主收 要入 任 洋 务，预计保持稳定增长，舍之道、T68 预计延续快于整体收入增长趋 (38%) 证 势。Q1省内实现收入5.4亿元，同比增长12.2%，省外实现收入14.2 (54%) 亿元，同比-0.1%，省内市场根基稳健，带动整体收入增长。 ...

食品饮料/白酒Ⅱ 公 司 研 舍得酒业（600702.SH） 夯实基础，稳中求进 究 2024年04月28日 ——公司信息更新报告 投资评级：增持（维持） 张宇光（分析师） 逄晓娟（分析师） 张恒玮（分析师） zhangyuguang@kysec.cn pangxiaojuan@kysec.cn zhanghengwei@kysec.cn 日期 2024/4/26 证 书编号：S0790520030003 证书编号：S0790521060002 证书编号：S0790524010001 当前股价(元) 72.53  收入业绩符合预期，大众价位产品和省内市场保持稳健，维持“增持”评级 公 一年最高最低(元) 188.75/68.00 舍得酒业2024年Q1营收21.1亿元，同比+4.1%，归母净利润5.5亿元，同比-3.4%， 司 收入利润符合预期，但考虑经济复苏进程放缓，次高端白酒发展仍有承压，我们 信 总市值(亿元) 241.65 息 流通市值(亿元) 241.00 略下调2024-2026年盈利预测，预计2024年-2026年归母净利润分别为19.（5 -0.8） 更 总股本(亿股) 3.33 亿元、22 ...

证券研究报告 公 2024年04月28日 司 报 告 舍得酒业(600702) │ 行 业： 食品饮料/白酒Ⅱ 公 投资评级： 买入（维持） 司 当前价格： 72.53元 季 收入稳健增长，期待商务需求复苏 目标价格： 110.60元 报 点 事件： 评 基本数据 公司发布 2024 年一季报，2024Q1 实现营业收入 21.05 亿元，同比增长 4.13%；归母净利润5.50亿元，同比下降3.35%；扣非净利润5.46亿元， 总股本/流通股本(百万股) 333.17/332.27 同比下降2.53%。 流通A股市值(百万元) 24,099.51 ➢ 中高档酒增长快于普通酒，现金流阶段性承压 每股净资产(元) 23.03 2024Q1 合同负债 2.35 亿元，同比增下降 15.11%，较 2023 年底减少 0.42 资产负债率(%) 32.92 亿元，2024Q1 收入+Δ合同负债 20.64 亿元，同比下降 9.87%；销售收现 19.17 亿元，同比下降 14.45%，经营活动产生的现金流量净额为 1.08 亿 一年内最高/最低(元) 183.47/68.00 元，同比下降52.24%，主要由于收到 ...

[Table_Page] 季报点评|白酒Ⅱ 证券研究报告 [舍Table_得Title] 酒业（600702.SH） [公Tab司le_I评nves级t] 买入 当前价格 72.53元 24Q1 持续增长，沱牌贡献增长动能 合理价值 92.1元 前次评级 买入 [ 核Tabl 心e_Su 观mm 点ary] ： 报告日期 2024-04-28 ⚫ 公司发布2024年一季报。24Q1公司实现营收21.1亿元，同比+4.1%， [相Tab对le_P市icQ场uote表] 现 实现归母净利润5.5亿元，同比-3.4%。 ⚫ 营收持续增长，沱牌预计表现更优。24Q1 公司中高档酒/普通酒营收 2% 04/23 06/23 08/23 10/23 12/23 02/24 04/24 -11% 分别同比+3.3%/0.9%至17.3/2.4亿元，带动酒类业务整体赢手套同比 -24% +3.0%至19.6亿元，公司销售毛利率同比-4.2pct至74.2%，我们预计 -36% 中高档酒中沱牌 T68 等产品较品味舍得有更快增速，带动公司销售毛 -49% 利率较同期下行。 -62% 舍得酒业 沪深300 ⚫ 费用投放精细化，税 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 2.105 billion yuan in Q1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.13%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 550 million yuan, a decrease of 3.35% year-on-year [1] - The company aims for long-term high-quality development, focusing on brand strategies and expanding its market presence [1] - The company expects revenue growth rates of 10.7%, 12.3%, and 11.9% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profit growth rates of 10.8%, 13.0%, and 12.7% for the same years [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2024, the company's gross profit margin was 74.16%, down 4.24 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a shift in product structure [1] - The company had 2,795 distributors by the end of Q1 2024, with a net increase of 140 distributors [1] - The company's sales cash collection decreased by 14.45% year-on-year, and contract liabilities were 235 million yuan, down 42 million yuan from the previous quarter [1] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 7.84 billion yuan, 8.80 billion yuan, and 9.846 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.963 billion yuan, 2.218 billion yuan, and 2.498 billion yuan [2][6] - The earnings per share are expected to be 5.89 yuan, 6.66 yuan, and 7.50 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][6] Strategic Outlook - The company plans to continue its dual-brand strategy with "Shede" and "Tuopai," focusing on expanding the "Shede" core product and enhancing the "Tuopai T68" brand [1] - The company is committed to a nationwide expansion strategy while deepening regional market penetration [1] - The organization aims to enhance channel management and increase the sales team size, alongside implementing an employee stock ownership plan to boost internal motivation [1]

股 票 研 究 [Table_industryInfo] 食品饮料/必需消费 [ Table_Main[舍ITnaf 得bol]e 酒_Ti业tle]( 600702) [评Tab级le_：Inv est] 增持 上次评级： 增持 24Q1 营收坚韧，战术灵活 目标价格： 127.40 上次预测： 127.40 公 ——舍得酒业2024 年一季报点评 当前价格： 72.33 司 訾猛(分析师) 李耀(分析师) 2024.04.26 更 021-38676442 8621-38675854 [交Ta易bl数e_M据a rket] 新 zimeng@gtjas.com liyao022899@gtjas.com 证书编号 S0880513120002 S0880520090001 52周内股价区间（元） 69.33-182.86 报 总市值（百万元） 24,098 告 本报告导读： 总股本/流通A股（百万股） 333/332 流通 B股/H股（百万股） 0/0 公司2024Q1营收略超预期，利润表现符合预期，盈利能力仍处相对高位；展望后续， 流通股比例 100% 产业库存周期后半段，舍得凭借产品、品牌及管理优势将 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][3] Core Insights - The company's revenue growth met expectations, but profits faced slight pressure due to various factors affecting gross margin [2][3] - The company reported total revenue of 2.105 billion yuan for Q1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.18%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 550 million yuan, a decrease of 3.37% year-on-year [2][3] - The report highlights a strategic adjustment in product offerings, with good performance in mid-to-high-end and high-line products, while the sub-high-end segment faced pressure [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2024 gross margin was 74.16%, down 4.22 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to impacts from Tianma Glass and Yelang Ancient [2][3] - Q1 2024 net profit margin was 26.09%, a decrease of 2.07 percentage points year-on-year, with sales and management expense ratios showing a decline of 2.93 and 0.20 percentage points respectively [2][3] - Sales receipts for Q1 2024 were 1.917 billion yuan, down 14.27% year-on-year, with operating net cash flow at 108 million yuan, a decrease of 52.41% [2][3] Product Strategy and Market Performance - The company achieved good growth in the domestic market, with Q1 2024 domestic revenue of 542 million yuan, up 12.22% year-on-year, while provincial revenue was 1.421 billion yuan, down 0.21% year-on-year [2][3] - E-commerce sales showed strong performance, with wholesale and e-commerce revenues of 1.814 billion yuan and 150 million yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 2.78% and 5.86% [2][3] - The company has established a dealer review group to improve dealer quality, focusing on mature markets in provinces like Sichuan, Shanxi, and Henan [3]

Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 2.105 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.13% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders increased to 0.331 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.01% [1] - Sales revenue from ordinary liquor reached 0.550 billion yuan [1] - The revenue from liquor products was 1.964 billion yuan, with mid-to-high-end liquor sales contributing 1.725 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 2.38% [1] Investor Relations Activities - The investor relations event was attended by a total of 220 securities analysts and institutional investors [1] - The event took place on April 26, 2024, from 15:30 to 16:30, in the company meeting room and online [1] - Key personnel included the Vice President and CFO, Mr. Zou Qingli, and the Secretary of the Board, Mr. Zhang Wei [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported Q1 2024 revenue of 2.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 550 million yuan, down 3.4% year-on-year [3] - Revenue structure is under pressure, with Q1 liquor revenue at 1.96 billion yuan, up 3% year-on-year, and mid-to-high-end liquor and ordinary liquor revenues at 1.73 billion yuan and 240 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 3.3% and 0.9% [3] - The company aims to optimize its cost structure, with a net profit margin of 26.1%, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, and a gross margin of 74.2%, down 4.2 percentage points year-on-year [3] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company is expected to maintain resilience in performance despite external pressures, with projected net profits for 2024-2026 at 2.05 billion, 2.49 billion, and 3.06 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 16%, 22%, and 23%, respectively [4] - Corresponding P/E ratios are projected to be 14, 11, and 9 times for the same periods [4] Revenue and Profitability - The company’s total revenue for 2022 was 6.056 billion yuan, increasing to 7.081 billion yuan in 2023, with forecasts of 8.185 billion yuan in 2024, 9.634 billion yuan in 2025, and 11.456 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [2][4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2022 was 1.685 billion yuan, with projections of 1.771 billion yuan in 2023, 2.050 billion yuan in 2024, 2.492 billion yuan in 2025, and 3.058 billion yuan in 2026 [2][4] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on a multi-product strategy and maintaining active channel development, with plans to strengthen its brand and market presence in 38 key cities [3] - The company emphasizes price stability and aims for both volume and price increases, while also enhancing its product offerings and market strategies [3]

华福证券 白酒Ⅲ 2024年04月25日 公 司 舍得酒业（ ） 600702.SH 买入（维持评级） 研 究 业绩预期平稳落地，聚焦重点单品合力向前 当前价格： 72.33元 目标价格： 113元 投资要点： 基本数据  事件： 总股本/流通股本(百万股) 333.17/332.27 流通A股市值(百万元) 24,033.06 舍得酒业发布24年一季报，24Q1公司实现营收21.05亿元，同比 每股净资产(元) 23.03 资产负债率(%) 32.92 增长4.13%；实现归母净利润5.50亿元，同比下降3.35%。公司去年 一年内最高/最低价(元) 188.75/68.00 一季度基数较高，预计二季度开始基数影响逐步减小后，营收逐季表 一年内股价相对走势 现向上可期。 公  中高端产品在23Q1高基数下维持增长，腰部力量持续夯实。 司 财 分产品看，公司中高端/普通酒24Q1分别实现营收17.25/2.38亿元， 报 同比分别增长3.31%/0.85%。公司坚持“稳价格、控库存、强动销”核 点 心原则，通过宴席营销、团购会销等方式推动终端动销。今年春节旺 评 季期间,沱牌开瓶率较去年增长163%，T6 ...