Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [18]. Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 earnings of 550 million, a year-on-year decrease of 7.4%, while revenue increased by 5.0% to 5.49 billion [1]. - The company is optimizing its air network layout, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency in the long term [8]. Financial Data Summary - **Q1 2025 Financials**: - Total revenue: 5.49 billion, up 5.0% year-on-year - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 550 million, down 7.4% year-on-year - Non-recurring net profit: 500 million, down 5.2% year-on-year [1] - **Segment Performance**: - **Air Express Business**: Revenue of 2.06 billion, up 2.9%, with a gross margin of 17.3%, up 1.8 percentage points - **Ground Integrated Services**: Revenue of 620 million, up 4.7%, with a gross margin of 34.8%, down 4.7 percentage points - **Integrated Logistics Solutions**: Revenue of 2.8 billion, up 6.7%, with a gross margin of 13.8%, up 3.1 percentage points [2] - **Cost Analysis**: - Operating costs for Q1 2025 were 4.53 billion, up 3.0%, resulting in a gross profit of 960 million and a gross margin of 17.5%, up 1.6 percentage points - The period expense ratio, excluding R&D expenses, was 3.1%, down 0.8 percentage points, indicating improved operational efficiency [2] - **Pricing Performance**: - The outbound air freight price index at Pudong Airport was 4333, up 10% year-on-year [2] Financial Forecast - **Revenue Projections**: - 2024A: 24.056 billion - 2025E: 22.349 billion (down 7.1% year-on-year) - 2026E: 23.998 billion (up 7.4% year-on-year) - 2027E: 25.271 billion (up 5.3% year-on-year) [4] - **Net Profit Projections**: - 2024A: 2.688 billion - 2025E: 2.295 billion (down 14.6% year-on-year) - 2026E: 2.713 billion (up 18.3% year-on-year) - 2027E: 2.888 billion (up 6.5% year-on-year) [4] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024A: 1.69 - 2025E: 1.45 - 2026E: 1.71 - 2027E: 1.82 [4] - **Target Price**: The target price is set at 14.5 yuan, with a current price of 12.15 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 19% [8].

2025年4月29日，东航物流(601156.SH)发布2025年一季报。 公司营业总收入为54.86亿元，在已披露的同业公司中排名第15，较去年同报告期营业总收入增加2.62亿 元，实现2年连续上涨，同比较去年同期上涨5.02%。归母净利润为5.45亿元，在已披露的同业公司中排 名第7，较去年同报告期归母净利润减少4359.27万元，同比较去年同期下降7.40%。经营活动现金净流 入为8.23亿元，在已披露的同业公司中排名第4，较去年同报告期经营活动现金净流入增加9.35亿元。 公司最新资产负债率为25.76%，在已披露的同业公司中排名第7，较上季度资产负债率减少0.45个百分 点，较去年同期资产负债率减少11.71个百分点。 公司最新毛利率为17.48%，在已披露的同业公司中排名第11，较上季度毛利率减少1.95个百分点，较去 年同期毛利率增加1.64个百分点。最新ROE为3.02%，在已披露的同业公司中排名第4，较去年同期ROE 减少0.65个百分点。 公司摊薄每股收益为0.34元，在已披露的同业公司中排名第4，较去年同报告期摊薄每股收益减少0.03 元，同比较去年同期下降8.11%。 公司最新总资产周 ...

Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for Q1 2025 was CNY 5,485,974,145.54, representing a 5.02% increase compared to CNY 5,223,948,184.70 in the same period last year[4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 7.40% to CNY 545,288,715.35 from CNY 588,881,387.28 year-on-year[4]. - The company's operating profit for Q1 2025 was 822,651,145.69, an increase from 716,987,840.22 in Q1 2024, representing a growth of approximately 14.7%[17]. - Net profit for Q1 2025 was 616,766,879.53, compared to 666,687,630.17 in Q1 2024, indicating a decrease of about 7.5%[17]. - The total comprehensive income for Q1 2025 was 616,789,964.05, down from 666,864,273.97 in Q1 2024, a decline of about 7.5%[18]. - Basic and diluted earnings per share for Q1 2025 were both 0.34, compared to 0.37 in Q1 2024, showing a decrease of approximately 8.1%[18]. Cash Flow and Assets - The net cash flow from operating activities improved significantly to CNY 823,225,905.67, compared to a negative cash flow of CNY -111,313,462.10 in the previous year[4]. - Cash flow from operating activities for Q1 2025 was 823,225,905.67, a significant improvement from -111,313,462.10 in Q1 2024[21]. - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of Q1 2025 totaled 7,102,207,276.49, compared to 8,825,126,101.73 at the end of Q1 2024, a decrease of about 19.5%[23]. - Current assets as of March 31, 2025, totaled ¥10,430,356,134.99, compared to ¥9,755,369,222.35 on December 31, 2024, indicating a growth of 6.92%[12]. - Total assets increased by 2.55% to CNY 26,941,182,321.56 from CNY 26,271,181,851.05 at the end of the previous year[5]. - Total assets amounted to ¥26,941,182,321.56 as of March 31, 2025, compared to ¥26,271,181,851.05 at the end of 2024, showing an increase of 2.55%[13]. - The company reported total liabilities at ¥6,938,831,928.93 as of March 31, 2025, slightly up from ¥6,885,621,422.47 at the end of 2024, reflecting a marginal increase of 0.77%[14]. - The company's equity attributable to shareholders reached ¥18,056,099,570.17 as of March 31, 2025, compared to ¥17,510,787,770.30 at the end of 2024, marking an increase of 3.11%[14]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from the air express segment was CNY 206,155.46 million, accounting for 37.60% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 2.87%[4]. - The comprehensive logistics solutions segment generated CNY 280,303.64 million, representing 51.12% of total revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 6.72%[4]. - Total operating revenue for Q1 2025 reached ¥5,485,974,145.54, an increase of 5.03% compared to ¥5,223,948,184.70 in Q1 2024[16]. - Total operating costs for Q1 2025 were ¥4,723,970,506.57, up from ¥4,617,710,591.18 in Q1 2024, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 2.29%[16]. - The company reported a decrease in sales revenue from 5,107,465,941.10 in Q1 2024 to 4,941,658,814.51 in Q1 2025, a decline of approximately 3.2%[21]. - The total operating expenses for Q1 2025 were 4,527,021,250.17, compared to 4,396,602,525.82 in Q1 2024, reflecting an increase of about 3%[17]. Shareholder Information - The total number of ordinary shareholders at the end of the reporting period was 52,656, with the largest shareholder being China Eastern Airlines Group Co., Ltd., holding 40.50% of the shares[8]. Operational Efficiency and Future Outlook - The gross profit margin for the overall business improved to 17.47%, up from 15.81% in the previous year, indicating a 1.66 percentage point increase[4]. - The company reported non-recurring gains of CNY 45,505,895.99 after tax, primarily from asset disposals and government subsidies[6]. - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence and enhancing its product offerings in the logistics sector[16]. - Future outlook includes potential investments in new technologies to improve operational efficiency and customer service[16]. - Research and development expenses increased to 16,927,089.07 in Q1 2025 from 11,218,696.27 in Q1 2024, reflecting a growth of approximately 50.5%[17]. - The weighted average return on equity decreased to 3.07%, down by 0.67 percentage points from 3.74% in the previous year[4]. - The company incurred financial expenses of 24,599,353.47 in Q1 2025, a decrease from 65,358,702.32 in Q1 2024, indicating a reduction of approximately 62.4%[17].

一、主要会计数据和财务指标 前十大流通股东累计持有： 43596.78万股，累计占流通股比： 46.17%，较上期变化： -4570.77万股。 | 名称 | 持有数量(万股) | 占总股本 | 增减情 况(万 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 比例(%) | | | | | | 股) | | 联想控股股份有限公司 | 17925.41 | 18.98 | 不变 | | 天津睿远企业管理合伙企业(有限合伙) | 9996.76 | 10.58 | -685.28 | | 珠海普东股权投资有限公司 | 7942.01 | 8.41 | 不变 | | 香港中央结算有限公司 | 1573.25 | 1.67 | -2620.41 | | 全国社保基金四一八组合 | 1352.17 | 1.43 | -1107.45 | | 新华人寿保险股份有限公司-传统-普通保险产品-018L-CT001沪 | 1105.10 | 1.17 | 新进 | | 兴证全球基金-中国人寿（601628）保险股份有限公司-分红险-兴 证全球基金国寿股份均衡股票型组合单一资产管理计划 | 1045.00 | ...

航空货运三巨头去年业绩表现继续亮眼。 近日，国货航（001391.SZ）、东航物流（601156.SH）陆续发布2024年年报。南方航空（600029.SH）年报中也披露了南航物流的业绩数据。据记 者计算，去年国货航、东航物流、南航物流营收总计超642亿元，归母净利润共计超过88亿元。 受益于国家政策支持，近年来我国航空物流行业处于快速发展的黄金窗口期。我国航空物流市场中，国货航、东航物流、南航物流是三大航空货 运央企巨头，也是主要的市场参与者，业务模式也最为接近。 据悉，国航、东航、南航三大航空央企的货运改革于2017年起相继落地后，便开启上市规划。东航物流（601156.SH）于2021年6月完成A股上 市。国货航于2024年12月30日成功登陆深交所，成为当时A股年内最大规模IPO，预计募资金额近35亿元，上市首日股价大涨超三倍。南航物流的 上市之路起始于2022年，但2025年2月下旬，南方航空发布公告称，基于目前市场环境变化，为统筹安排资本运作规划，经充分沟通及审慎论证 后，南航物流拟撤回上交所主板上市申请文件。 在股东回报方面，年报显示，国货航2024年拟向全体股东每10股派发现金股利0.65元（ ...

东航物流（601156.SH）2024 年年报点评 运价提升带动盈利同比增长，关注关税落地影响 2025 年 04 月 22 日 ➢ 事件：2025 年 4 月 16 日公司发布 2024 年年报。2024 年公司营业收入 240 亿元，同比增长 17%；归母净利 26.9 亿元，同比增长 8%；扣非归母净利 25.4 亿元，同比增长 9%。4Q24 公司营业收入 63.8 亿元，同比持平；归母净利 6.2 亿元，同比下降 24.6%；扣非归母净利 6.0 亿元，同比下降 25.6%。 ➢ 全年盈利受益运价中枢和货量提升同比增长。2024 年亚太至欧洲、北美空 运市场延续高景气，跨境空运运价同比提升，tac 数据显示 2024 年上海浦东出 口空运指数 4692 点，同比提升 12%，亚太至北美、欧洲路向运价同比提升 4.3%、 9.3%，公司航空速运、综合物流解决方案业务板块毛利率分别为 19.5%、15.9%， 在成本费用端承压下仍然维持较高水平，我们认为公司受益全年高运价，盈利中 枢同比抬升。全年公司货邮运输周转量同比提升 15.9%，全货机利用率同比提升 3.6%、客机腹舱载运率同比提升 5.2pct ...

➢ 关注美国对华关税政策修改后北美空运市场变化，关税上提后公司或推迟全 货机接收。美国"对等关税"条款取消中国商品 T86 清关模式，中国对美出口跨 境电商成本大幅上涨叠加物流履约效率下滑，我们预计跨境电商需求回落或将传 导至美线空运量价，但考虑到中货航在欧洲和东南亚航线布局公司受影响程度或 低于行业大盘，关注市场调整及公司运力调整应对。此外，2025 年 4 月 12 日 起中国对原产于美国商品关税上调至 125%，国内航司未完成交付的飞机面临更 高价税成本，我们预计关税上提或对公司全货机接收产生一定影响。 ➢ 投资建议：考虑到北美空运市场需求潜在调整影响，我们预计 2025-2027 年公司营收分别为 241、264、290 亿元，归母净利润分别为 22.9、26.3、29.9 亿元，对应 PE 分别为 8x、7x、6x。局部贸易政策调整不改全球空运运力供给紧 张环境，关注税收政策落地后美线空运量价变化以及公司运力调整，以及成本控 制情况，维持"推荐"评级。 ➢ 风险提示：贸易摩擦持续、国内政策实施效果不及预期、地缘冲突升级。 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] | 项目/年度 | 202 ...

证券研究报告 东航物流 (601156 CH) 24 盈利小幅提升，高关税业绩或承压 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 4 月 | 17 日│中国内地 | 仓储物流 | 东航物流 2024 年营业收入 240.56 亿，同增 16.7%，归母净利润 26.88 亿， 同增 8.0%，符合此前公司预告的归母净利润 25-29 亿；其中 4Q24 归母净 利润 6.21 亿，同降 24.6%，或因人工和腹舱等成本集中在四季度入账，毛 利率同比有所下滑。当前受"对等关税"扰动，美线航空货运需求或承压， 同时跨境电商平台为应对成本压力，或向"海运+海外仓"的半托管模式转 型。不过中长期来看，公司拥有丰富的核心干线运输资源，或可通过新开航 线分散风险，同时伴随我国产业升级和自主可控诉求提升，公司或可通过强 化综合物流能力，打造第二成长曲线，维持"买入"。 航空速运板块或受腹舱业务和机队退出等影响，毛利润有所下降 跨境电商高增推动 24 年航空货运景气度提升，TAC 浦东出港航空运价指数 同增 10.5%，不过或由于公司机队规模同降 3%，且 ...

Core Insights - Eastern Airlines Logistics Co., Ltd. released its 2024 ESG report, marking the third consecutive year of publication, emphasizing its commitment to sustainable development through innovation and digital transformation [1][2] Group 1: ESG Report Highlights - The report is themed "Innovation Leads, Connecting the World," showcasing the company's efforts in building new productive capabilities in air logistics through business model and technological innovations [1] - Eastern Airlines Logistics actively responds to the expectations of various stakeholders, including the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, local governments, and the civil aviation authority, by creating multiple values in economic, social, and environmental aspects [1] - The report presents initiatives across three dimensions: environment, society, and governance, detailing the company's commitments and responsibilities [1] Group 2: New Features and Achievements - A new chapter titled "Innovation Leading: 10th Anniversary of South America Fresh Produce Express Line" highlights the company's achievements in sustainable practices [1] - The report independently addresses sustainable development and governance, aligning with the expectations of capital markets and regulatory bodies [1] - Eastern Airlines Logistics received an A rating in the CSI ESG Index for 2024, indicating its leading position in the industry, along with several awards for its sustainable development practices [2]

Core Insights - Eastern Airlines Logistics Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 24.056 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.66% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 2.688 billion yuan, an increase of 8.01% compared to the previous year [2] - The comprehensive logistics solutions business, centered on cross-border e-commerce, saw a significant revenue increase of 36.72%, becoming a key driver of the company's high-quality development [2] Business Performance - The company focused on stabilizing its core business amidst complex international trade conditions and new trends in the logistics industry [2] - The operational efficiency of all-cargo aircraft improved, with daily utilization rising to 13.01 hours and a high load factor of 82.17%, leading the industry [2] - Cross-border e-commerce solutions generated over 5.9 billion yuan in revenue, marking a year-on-year growth of 26.01% [3] Emerging Business Segments - The air cold chain business imported approximately 32,000 tons of fresh products, with the "Flying Fresh" brand effect gradually becoming evident [3] - The company executed 1,865 charter flights for fresh products, a nearly 74% increase year-on-year [3] - Management and sales expenses as a percentage of revenue decreased by 0.2 percentage points, indicating effective cost control [3] Future Outlook - The company plans to continue focusing on its core air logistics business while strengthening its three pillars: cross-border e-commerce logistics, air cold chain, and comprehensive logistics solutions [3] - There is an emphasis on enhancing global service capabilities to advance towards becoming a world-class comprehensive logistics service provider [3]