Group 1 - The 2025 China International Service Trade Fair's financial services section will be held from September 10 to September 14 in Beijing, focusing on the theme "Digital Intelligence Drives Open Win-Win" [1] - The financial services section aims to create four major platforms: global financial innovation product and service display, important policy and industry rule release, partner negotiation, and cutting-edge financial experience [1] - A total of 92 companies will participate in the exhibition, including 68 from the Fortune Global 500, with a 45.7% internationalization rate [1] Group 2 - Major financial institutions such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, and Beijing Bank will showcase innovative products in the field of fintech [2] - Industrial and Commercial Bank will display a trillion-level financial model, while Beijing Bank will present an interactive digital robot to demonstrate various financial services [2] - A digital RMB immersive experience area of nearly 1,000 square meters will be created, featuring a collaborative exhibition matrix from multiple banks to showcase "Digital RMB+" innovations [2] Group 3 - The financial services section will emphasize experiential activities, with interactive events designed to engage the public [3] - China Minsheng Bank will introduce fun activities such as stamp collection and interactive games to enhance the audience's experience of financial innovation [3] - Traffic Bank will feature creative displays and promotional activities to allow visitors to experience the vitality of a century-old financial brand [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent implementation of the personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy by the Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and the financial regulatory authority aims to stimulate consumer spending through subsidized loans, with a focus on major banks and specific financial institutions [4]. Group 1: Policy Overview - The personal consumption loan subsidy policy will be effective from September 1, 2025, to August 31, 2026, allowing residents to receive a subsidy of 1% per year on loans used for consumption, capped at 50% of the loan contract interest rate [4]. - A total of 23 lending institutions are included in the policy, comprising 6 large state-owned commercial banks, 12 national joint-stock commercial banks, and 5 other personal consumption loan providers [4]. Group 2: Loan Balances - In 2024, 16 banks reported personal consumption loan balances exceeding 100 billion yuan, with the top ten banks surpassing 300 billion yuan, indicating a significant concentration of loan balances among leading banks [4]. - Postal Savings Bank leads with a loan balance of 613.9 billion yuan, followed by China Construction Bank at 544.9 billion yuan and Agricultural Bank of China at 491.4 billion yuan [3][4]. Group 3: Bank Rankings - Among the top ten banks, five are large state-owned commercial banks, while three national joint-stock commercial banks also made the list: Ping An Bank (4th), China Merchants Bank (6th), and CITIC Bank (10th) [5]. - Notable performances include Ping An Bank with a balance of 474.7 billion yuan, surpassing Industrial and Commercial Bank of China at 421.2 billion yuan, and Ningbo Bank at 357.5 billion yuan, slightly ahead of Bank of Communications at 330.3 billion yuan [5].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 China International Service Trade Fair's financial services section will take place from September 10 to September 14 at Shougang Park in Beijing, focusing on "Digital Intelligence Driven, Open and Win-Win" as its theme [1] Group 1: Event Overview - The financial services section will feature two main exhibition halls: Hall 5 for "Open Integration" showcasing banks, insurance, securities, funds, and payment institutions, and Hall 6 for "Intelligent Sharing" focusing on collaboration between financial institutions and leading tech companies [1] - A total of 92 companies will participate, including 68 from the Fortune Global 500 and industry leaders, highlighting the scale and international nature of the event [1] - The event will include over 30 parallel forums and a dedicated meeting area for high-level discussions, aiming to foster collaboration among domestic and international financial institutions [1][4] Group 2: Technological Innovations - Major banks such as ICBC, Bank of China, and Agricultural Bank of China will showcase innovative financial products utilizing AI technology to enhance interactive experiences [2] - ICBC will display a trillion-level financial model, while Agricultural Bank will introduce a VR-enabled service for online property viewing, enhancing transaction efficiency in the local tourism and homestay economy [2] - Other banks will present various technological advancements, including interactive digital robots and smart financial terminals, emphasizing the integration of technology in financial services [3] Group 3: Forums and Discussions - The event will host over 30 forums covering global financial hotspots and industry concerns, featuring high-level dialogues, policy interpretations, and project presentations [4][5] - Agricultural Bank will organize a meeting to support agricultural enterprises in expanding internationally, while Bank of China will focus on exchange rate risk management for outbound enterprises [5] - The event will also highlight innovative practices from financial institutions, including a unique service card for foreign visitors and advancements in commercial space insurance [5]

Group 1: Event Overview - The 2025 China International Service Trade Fair Financial Services Special Event will be held from September 10 to 14 in Beijing Shougang Park [1] - The theme for this year's financial services special event is "Digital Intelligence Driven, Open and Win-Win" [1] - The event aims to create four platforms: global financial innovation product and service display, important policy and industry rule release, partner negotiation, and cutting-edge financial experience [1] Group 2: Participation and Scale - A total of 92 domestic and foreign financial institutions will participate in the event, with 68 being Fortune 500 companies and industry leaders [4] - The exhibition area will cover 11,000 square meters, featuring two main halls with themes of "Open Integration" and "Intelligent Sharing" [4] - The internationalization rate of participating institutions is 45.7%, with 50 domestic institutions and 42 foreign institutions [1][4] Group 3: Innovative Financial Products and Services - Notable exhibits include the "Mifang Card," a three-in-one service product for foreign visitors, developed by Bank of China in collaboration with China Unicom and Beijing Yikatong [5] - China Insurance will showcase the first commercial aerospace insurance consortium in China and innovative technology insurance products [5] - Mastercard and UnionPay will present new products and services aimed at enhancing the payment experience for foreign visitors [5] Group 4: Technology Integration - The event will leverage AI technology to create an immersive exhibition experience, showcasing the deep integration of AI and the financial industry [6] - Agricultural Bank of China will feature VR technology for real estate viewing, enhancing customer engagement [6] - Beijing Bank will present an interactive digital robot to demonstrate various financial services [6] Group 5: Digital Currency and Interactive Activities - A 1,000 square meter immersive digital RMB experience area will be featured, enhancing visitor engagement through AI interactions [7] - Newcomer CCB Fund will utilize a "Wutong Bus" design for its booth, incorporating interactive elements to educate investors [7] - Various interactive activities will be organized to engage both professional and general audiences, including a financial empowerment event for professionals and fun activities for the general public [9]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - Credit and social financing growth are diverging, with financial support for the real economy shifting from indirect financing (loans) to direct financing, primarily through government bonds [4] - The increase in social financing in July was mainly driven by government bonds, with a notable increase of 1.24 trillion yuan, the highest for the month in many years [4] - The report highlights a trend of deposits moving from residents to non-bank financial institutions, indicating a shift in risk appetite among investors [5] Summary by Sections Credit Market Analysis - In July, RMB loans decreased by 50 billion yuan, a year-on-year reduction of 310 billion yuan, with a balance growth rate of 6.9%, down 0.2 percentage points from June [3] - The demand for credit remains weak, with both corporate and household loan demands declining, particularly in medium to long-term loans [3][4] - The increase in corporate loans was primarily supported by bills, which saw a year-on-year increase of 312.5 billion yuan [3] Social Financing Insights - Social financing increased by 1.16 trillion yuan in July, a year-on-year increase of 289.3 billion yuan, with a stock growth rate of 9.0%, up 0.1 percentage points from June [4] - The divergence between social financing and credit growth suggests a transition in how financial support is provided to the real economy [4] Deposit Trends - M2 grew by 8.8% year-on-year in July, while M1 saw a significant increase of 5.6%, indicating signs of deposit activation [5] - The report notes that the increase in non-bank deposits by 1.39 trillion yuan contrasts with a decrease in resident deposits by 780 billion yuan, highlighting a clear trend of funds moving towards non-bank sectors [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that dividend strategies remain solid, with a focus on direct financing as the primary means of financial support for the real economy [5] - It recommends specific banks such as CITIC Bank, Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank, and others as beneficiaries of the current market conditions [5]

银行研思录 13 每年到期贷款有多少？ 总量研究/银行 信贷高存量、后工业化和城镇化时代，每年都有大量的信贷到期，信贷增速放 缓的必然趋势，广义信用扩张将更多财政支撑。《银行研思录 12：每年存款到 期有多少？》我们测算每年存款新发生和到期规模，本篇报告作为银行研思录 13，我们将测算每年贷款新发生和到期规模。 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 41 | 0.8 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 11255.0 | 11.7 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 10654.2 | 12.1 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -4.7 12.8 34.6 相对表现 -8.6 6.9 8.5 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 Aug/24 Dec/24 Apr/25 Jul/25 (%) 银行 沪深300 相关报告 1、《如何看待 7 月信贷和非银存款？ —2025 年 7 月金融数据点评》 2025-08-14 2、《两项贴息政策总结和影响—政 策点评》2025-08-12 ❑ 风险提示：经济基本 ...

2025年8月15日，中国农业银行（601288）发布公告称，中国农业银行将于2025年8月15日发售2025年超 长期特别国债（四期）（续发）（债券简称"25超长特别国债04（续1）"），债券托管机构为"中央国债 登记结算有限责任公司"。 本次中国农业银行分销的债券代码为2500004X1，分销期为8月15日，上市日为8月19日。分销期过后的 上市首日续发债券2500004X1代码将变更为2500004。 25超长特别国债04为20年期固定利率债券，剩余期限为19.92年，按半年付息。发行人于每年1月15日、 7月15日（节假日顺延，下同）支付利息，2045年7月15日偿还本金（债券面值）并支付最后一次利息。 根据2025年8月14日银行间债券市场招标结果，本期债券到期收益率为2.0596%，全价为97.89元/份。 此次债券的发售对象为全国范围内符合债市宝签约条件的个人投资者、金融类机构投资者和非金融类机 构投资者，欢迎广大客户通过中国农业银行营业网点、网银、掌银等渠道参与认购，业务办理时间为工 作日上午10:00至下午16:50，最低认购单位为一份（对应债券面值100元），认购份数按整数倍递增， 不设认 ...

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