Investment Rating - The investment rating for Agricultural Bank is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - Agricultural Bank's revenue and net profit growth rates are leading among state-owned banks, with 2024 revenue and net profit increasing by 2.26% and 4.72% year-on-year, respectively, marking an acceleration compared to the first three quarters of 2024 [4][5] - The bank's asset quality continues to improve, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.3% at the end of 2024, down 2 basis points from the previous quarter [8] - The bank is well-positioned to benefit from urban-rural integration and has a strong focus on county-level financial services, which is expected to drive growth [9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Agricultural Bank's total assets, loans, and financial investments grew by 8.4%, 10.13%, and 23.5% year-on-year, respectively [5] - The bank's net interest income increased by 1.56% year-on-year, while non-interest income saw a significant rise of 26.3% [4] - The bank's total revenue for 2024 is projected at 710,555 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.26% [12] Loan Growth - Agricultural Bank's loan portfolio saw a year-on-year increase of 10.13%, with corporate loans growing by 10.6% and personal loans by 9.35% [5] - The bank's county-level loans accounted for over 40% of its domestic loan portfolio, with a balance of 9.85 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.3% [5] Asset Quality - The NPL ratio improved to 1.3%, with a coverage ratio of 299.61% [8] - The bank's overdue loan ratio and attention ratio decreased, indicating a stable asset quality [8] Investment Outlook - The bank is expected to see revenue and profit growth accelerate in 2024, maintaining its leadership among state-owned banks [9] - Projections for 2025-2027 indicate revenue growth rates of -0.96%, 1.81%, and 4.53%, with net profit growth rates of 1.26%, 1.36%, and 2.37%, respectively [9]

"2024年，农业银行坚决贯彻党中央、国务院决策部署，坚守服务'三农'和实体经济主责主业，持续优化经营管理策略，主要经营指标持续向好。"3月28 日，农业银行副董事长、执行董事、行长王志恒在该行2024年度业绩发布会上表示。 2024年全年，农业银行实现净利润2827亿元，同比增长4.8%。实现营业收入7114亿元，同比增长2.3%，其中利息净收入5807亿元，同比增长1.6%。 "国家乡村振兴战略的深入推进，为农行发展带来了广阔空间。"王志恒表示，农业银行聚焦城乡融合发展，持续向县域、"三农"倾斜金融资源，不断增强在 县域地区的服务能力和经营优势。 过去一年，农业银行找准"稳"的着力点和"进"的主攻方向，扎实做好服务实体经济和业务经营工作，服务"三农"和乡村振兴有力有效，县域贷款余额占比首 超四成。 下一步，在信贷投放方面有何部署？如何保持"三农"县域业务发展优势？在业绩发布会现场，农业银行管理层进行了回应。 FBO CO. - (4)中国农业银行 | Exmito 品记号 MENG Fanjun 去年县域贷款贡献度持续提升 数据是最好的证明。业务增量方面，2024年，农业银行县域贷款年增量突破万亿元，余额 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Agricultural Bank of China (601288) [1][4]. Core Views - The bank's asset quality has improved, with a notable growth in retail loans. The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio decreased to 1.3%, and the provision coverage ratio remains robust at 300% [1][8]. - The bank achieved a total operating income of 710.56 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.26%. The net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 4.73% to 282.08 billion yuan [1][3]. - The report highlights a steady growth in loans, particularly in retail lending, with personal consumption loans growing by 28.3% and personal business loans by 35% year-on-year [8]. Financial Performance Summary - **2024 Financial Metrics**: - Total operating income: 710,555 million yuan - Year-on-year growth: 2.26% - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 282,083 million yuan - Year-on-year growth: 4.73% [3][9] - **Future Projections**: - Revenue growth forecast for 2025-2027 adjusted to 1.8%, 3.7%, and 5.7% respectively - Net profit growth forecast for the same period adjusted to 2.3%, 4.1%, and 5.3% respectively [8][9]. Asset Quality and Loan Structure - The NPL ratio improved, with a decrease of 2 basis points to 1.3%, and the NPL generation rate fell to 0.23% [8][11]. - Retail loans showed strong growth, with a year-on-year increase of 9.4% in Q4, while corporate loans grew by 11% [8][9]. - The bank's focus on county-level finance continues to yield positive results, with county loans growing by 12.3% year-on-year [8]. Valuation and Target Price - The current valuation is at 0.65 times the projected price-to-book (PB) ratio for 2025, with a target PB of 0.75, leading to a target price of 5.86 yuan per share [8][4]. - The report suggests that the bank is undervalued compared to its historical average PB of 0.58 [8].

银行 2025 年 3 月 31 日 农业银行(601288.SH) 营收增幅领跑大行，资产质量整体稳健 推荐（维持） 股价：5.10 元 主要数据 | 行业 | 银行 | | --- | --- | | 公司网址 | www.abchina.com;www.abchina.com | | | .cn | | 大股东/持股 | 中央汇金投资有限责任公司/40.14% | | 实际控制人 | | | 总股本(百万股) | 349,983 | | 流通 A 股(百万股) | 319,244 | | 流通 B/H 股(百万股) | 30,739 | | 总市值（亿元） | 17,615 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 16,281 | | 每股净资产(元) | 7.40 | | 资产负债率(%) | 92.8 | 行情走势图 相关研究报告 【平安证券】农业银行（601288.SH）*首次覆盖报 告* 客群基础夯实，深耕三农构筑差异化增长极 * 推 荐 20241113 平安观点： | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Agricultural Bank of China (601288.SH) [1] Core Insights - Agricultural Bank of China reported a revenue of 710.6 billion, a year-on-year growth of 2.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 282.1 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 4.7% [4] - The bank's net interest margin (NIM) for 2024 is 1.42%, showing a narrowing trend but with a slowdown in the rate of decline in the second half of the year [9] - Non-interest income increased by 5.5% year-on-year, contributing to the overall revenue growth [10] - The bank's asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.3% and a coverage ratio of 300% [11][12] Revenue and Profitability - The bank's revenue and profit growth accelerated, with revenue growth of 2.3% and net profit growth of 4.7% for the year [5] - The annualized weighted average return on equity (ROAE) is 10.46%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The cost-to-income ratio is 34.4%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [5] Loan and Deposit Growth - The bank's interest-earning assets and loans grew by 8.2% and 10.2% year-on-year, respectively [5] - The bank's deposits increased by 8.2% year-on-year, with a notable increase in demand deposits [7] - The county-level business maintained a high growth rate, with loans in this sector increasing by 12.3% year-on-year [6] Capital Adequacy and Risk Management - The core tier 1 capital ratio is 11.4%, indicating a solid capital position [12] - The bank's risk compensation ability is robust, with a credit cost of 0.55%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous year [11] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio decreased, reflecting effective risk management strategies [11] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 0.83, 0.85, and 0.87 yuan, respectively [13] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.64 and a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 6.11 for 2025 [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Agricultural Bank of China (601288.SH) with a current price of 5.10 CNY [1]. Core Views - Agricultural Bank of China reported a revenue of 710.6 billion CNY for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 282.1 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 4.7% [4][5]. - The bank's annualized weighted average return on equity (ROAE) stands at 10.46%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous year [4]. - The bank's net interest income and non-interest income growth rates for the year were 1.6% and 5.5%, respectively, showing improvements compared to the first three quarters of 2024 [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The bank's revenue, pre-provision profit, and net profit growth rates for the year were 2.3%, 1.6%, and 4.7%, respectively, with improvements of 1, 0.1, and 1.3 percentage points compared to the first three quarters [5]. - The cost-to-income ratio and credit impairment losses as a percentage of revenue were 34.4% and 18.4%, showing changes of +0.5 and -1.1 percentage points year-on-year [5]. Asset and Loan Growth - By the end of 2024, the bank's interest-earning assets and loans grew by 8.2% and 10.2% year-on-year, although these growth rates decreased by 4.6 and 0.4 percentage points compared to the end of the third quarter [6]. - The bank's loan structure showed a focus on corporate, retail, and bill financing, with significant growth in key sectors such as manufacturing and green loans [6]. Deposit and Liability Management - The bank's interest-bearing liabilities and deposits grew by 8.2% and 4.7% year-on-year, with total deposits increasing by 1.3 trillion CNY [7]. - The structure of deposits improved, with a notable increase in demand deposits, which accounted for 41% of total deposits by year-end [7]. Interest Margin and Non-Interest Income - The net interest margin (NIM) for 2024 was 1.42%, narrowing by 18 basis points year-on-year [9]. - Non-interest income reached 129.9 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 5.5%, and the proportion of non-interest income to total revenue decreased slightly [10]. Asset Quality and Risk Management - By the end of 2024, the bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio and attention rate were 1.3% and 1.4%, respectively, both showing slight decreases [11]. - The bank's provision coverage ratio was 300%, indicating a robust risk mitigation capacity [12]. Capital Adequacy and Dividends - The core tier 1 capital ratio, tier 1 capital ratio, and total capital ratio were 11.4%, 13.6%, and 18.2%, respectively, showing improvements compared to the previous quarter [12]. - The bank announced a dividend of 84.66 billion CNY for 2024, maintaining a payout ratio of 30% [12]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are adjusted to 0.83, 0.85, and 0.87 CNY, respectively [13]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.64 and a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 6.11 for 2025 [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company in the A/H shares category, with a target price of RMB 6.08 and HKD 5.90 [8]. Core Views - The company's net profit, revenue, and pre-provision operating profit (PPOP) for 2024 are expected to grow by 4.7%, 2.3%, and 1.4% year-on-year, with growth rates improving compared to the first nine months of the year [1]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of RMB 0.23 per share, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 30.0% and a yield of 4.53% for A shares and 5.32% for H shares [1]. - The company continues to deepen its focus on county-level markets, with a loan balance of RMB 9.85 trillion in these areas, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.3% [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, total assets, total loans, and total deposits are projected to increase by 8.4%, 10.2%, and 4.9% year-on-year, respectively [2]. - The net interest margin for 2024 is expected to be 1.42%, down 3 basis points from the previous quarter and 18 basis points from 2023 [3]. - The company’s net profit for 2024 is forecasted at RMB 282.08 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 4.72% [27]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio at the end of 2024 is expected to decrease to 1.30%, with a coverage ratio of 300% [4]. - The NPL ratio for corporate loans improved, while retail loans showed some volatility, with mortgage and consumer loan NPL ratios increasing to 0.73% and 1.55%, respectively [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report predicts a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.76 for A shares and 0.68 for H shares in 2025, reflecting a premium due to the company's strong county-level financial characteristics [5]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at RMB 0.83, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 6.17 [27].

Financial Performance - The bank achieved a net profit of RMB 282.671 billion for the year 2024, reflecting its strong financial performance[3]. - Net profit for 2023 was RMB 282,671 million, compared to RMB 258,866 million in 2022, reflecting a growth of approximately 9.5%[25]. - The bank achieved a net profit of CNY 282.7 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.8%[35]. - The bank's net profit for 2024 reached CNY 282.67 billion, an increase of CNY 12.85 billion, representing a growth of 4.8% compared to the previous year[63]. - The bank's operating income for 2024 totaled RMB 710,555 million, up from RMB 694,828 million in 2023, marking a growth of 2.6%[30]. - Total operating income reached CNY 710.6 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, and net interest income was CNY 580.7 billion, up by 1.6%[35]. Assets and Liabilities - As of the end of 2024, the total assets of Agricultural Bank of China reached RMB 43,238.135 billion, with total loans and advances amounting to RMB 24,906.187 billion and total deposits of RMB 30,305.357 billion[3]. - Total assets reached RMB 33,925,488 million in 2023, an increase from RMB 30,305,357 million in 2022[17]. - Total assets increased to RMB 43,238,135 million in 2024, up from RMB 39,872,989 million in 2023, representing a growth of 5.4%[30]. - The bank's total liabilities reached RMB 40,140,862 million in 2024, up from RMB 36,976,122 million in 2023, indicating a growth of 5.9%[30]. - As of December 31, 2024, total liabilities amounted to RMB 40,140.86 billion, an increase of RMB 3,164.74 billion, or 8.6% from the previous year[111]. Capital Adequacy and Risk Management - The capital adequacy ratio stood at 18.19%, indicating a solid capital position[3]. - The capital adequacy ratio stood at 303.87% in 2023, slightly down from 302.60% in 2022[26]. - The capital adequacy ratio increased to 18.19% in 2024, compared to 17.14% in 2023, reflecting a stronger capital position[31]. - The bank is committed to risk management, addressing various risks including credit, market, liquidity, and operational risks[10]. Dividends and Shareholder Returns - The bank's board proposed a final dividend of RMB 1.255 per 10 shares, totaling RMB 43.923 billion, with a total annual dividend of RMB 2.419 per 10 shares amounting to RMB 84.661 billion[7]. - The bank's net asset value per share increased by RMB 0.52 to RMB 7.40 as of December 31, 2024[118]. Loan and Deposit Growth - Total deposits amounted to RMB 39,872,989 million in 2023, up from RMB 28,898,468 million in 2022[20]. - The balance of loans in rural areas reached CNY 9.85 trillion, with a loan growth rate of 14.7% in key rural revitalization counties[36]. - The balance of loans to private enterprises was CNY 653 billion, with an annual increase of CNY 108 billion, leading the industry[37]. - The bank's personal loan balance reached CNY 8.81 trillion, with an annual increase of CNY 754.3 billion, marking the highest growth rate among peers[37]. - Customer deposits increased by RMB 1,406.89 billion, growing 4.9%, with personal deposits rising to 62.8% of total deposits, up 2.6 percentage points year-over-year[112]. Digital Banking and Technology - The bank's mobile banking monthly active users reached 250 million, maintaining a leading position in the industry[38]. - The bank has launched a new version of the corporate mobile banking app, enhancing functionality across HarmonyOS, Android, and iOS systems[173]. - The bank's digital financing services are set to improve, with the launch of a cross-border financial service platform that integrates various functions[176]. - The bank's network security defense capabilities have significantly improved, with a comprehensive enhancement of the security management system[199]. Green Finance and Sustainable Development - New product development initiatives are underway, focusing on green finance and sustainable investment solutions[16]. - The bank provided financing exceeding CNY 410 billion for green industries and clients in 2024, focusing on clean energy and pollution prevention[163]. - The balance of green credit business reached CNY 4.97 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 22.9%[58]. Regulatory Compliance and Consumer Protection - The bank plans to enhance consumer protection mechanisms and conduct annual audits to strengthen compliance and risk management[183]. - The bank aims to enhance its consumer rights protection mechanisms, ensuring fair treatment of consumers throughout the business process[180]. International Operations - The international settlement business volume of domestic branches is projected to reach $2,003.3 billion in 2024, with international trade financing business volume at $131.5 billion[175]. - The cross-border RMB settlement volume is anticipated to be 35.1 trillion yuan in 2024, with a 6% increase in the volume under current and direct investment[177].

Core Viewpoint - The independent directors of Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) are committed to upholding their responsibilities and ensuring compliance with laws and regulations, thereby enhancing corporate governance and protecting the rights of all shareholders [1][2][12]. Group 1: Independent Directors' Responsibilities - Independent directors actively participate in board meetings and committees, providing independent opinions on significant matters to improve governance effectiveness [1][2][12]. - The independent directors have a strong professional background and extensive experience in the financial sector, which aids in their decision-making and oversight roles [4][12][22]. Group 2: Annual Performance Overview - The independent directors have attended various meetings, including 4 shareholder meetings and 10 board meetings, reviewing 96 proposals and listening to 17 reports [23][24]. - They have emphasized the importance of compliance and risk management, particularly in relation to related party transactions and the bank's internal controls [16][30]. Group 3: Financial Management and Reporting - The bank's profit distribution plan for 2023 includes a dividend of RMB 2.309 per share, totaling RMB 808.11 billion, which represents 30% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [8][29]. - The bank has committed to sustainable practices, including reducing paper usage in annual reports and promoting electronic versions to align with environmental goals [5][29]. Group 4: Compliance and Risk Management - The independent directors have focused on ensuring that related party transactions are conducted in compliance with applicable regulations, with no adverse effects on the bank or minority shareholders [16][27]. - They have also prioritized the enhancement of internal controls and compliance measures, particularly in overseas operations, to mitigate potential risks [4][30]. Group 5: Training and Development - Continuous professional development is emphasized, with independent directors participating in various training programs to enhance their knowledge and skills related to governance and compliance [6][25]. - The directors have engaged in discussions on key issues such as risk management, digital transformation, and international strategy, ensuring they remain informed and effective in their roles [25][26].

Core Viewpoint - China Agricultural Bank plans to distribute a final cash dividend of RMB 0.1255 per share for the fiscal year 2024, subject to shareholder approval [1][3]. Profit Distribution Plan - The bank intends to distribute a total cash dividend of RMB 846.61 billion for the fiscal year 2024, which represents 30.01% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [2][3]. - The distribution will be based on 349,983,033,873 ordinary shares, with a cash dividend of RMB 1.255 per 10 shares [2]. - The total cash dividend includes RMB 439.23 billion for the final dividend and RMB 407.38 billion for the interim dividend [2]. - The final dividend for A shares is expected to be paid on July 17, 2025, while H shares are expected to be paid on August 27, 2025 [1]. Financial Performance - The total cash dividend for 2024 is an increase from RMB 808.11 billion in 2023 and RMB 777.66 billion in 2022 [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is reported at RMB 2,820.83 billion [2]. - The cumulative cash dividends over the last three fiscal years amount to RMB 2,432.38 billion [3]. Decision-Making Process - The profit distribution plan has been reviewed and approved by the board of directors and will be submitted for shareholder approval [3][4]. - The independent directors have expressed their agreement with the proposed profit distribution plan [3].