2025年度北京金融业十大品牌揭晓 - 11-11-200 C manum 11 中国农业服业 ICBC (8) 中国工商银行 @ + Killer ===== a GOMBHERN | KEHY 202 sum 2025 费力 品 Q SES 在线里缘 出版 C SURE 原版特日 E 025年度北京商业品牌大会金融消费望腿酸 ○ 中国工商银行北京市分行 ○ 中国建设银行北京市分行 ○ 中国农业银行北京市分行 ◎ 中国银行北京市分行 ○ 中国邮政储蓄银行北京分行 ○ 宁波银行北京分行 ◎ 中国人寿北京市分公司 ◎ 平安人寿北京分公司 ○ 阳光财险 0 中金公司 the start to 0 0 只可能 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the banking sector, indicating an expected performance that will exceed the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [41]. Core Insights - The report discusses the concept of "asset scarcity," which is explained through two perspectives: the mismatch between supply and demand for funds, and the insufficient supply of quality assets that meet investors' risk and return preferences. It argues that the traditional supply-demand imbalance does not adequately explain the phenomenon of asset scarcity [5][13]. - The report identifies three dimensions of asset scarcity: macro, meso, and micro. It emphasizes that the bond market is primarily concerned with the micro-level aspects of asset scarcity [5][16]. - To alleviate macro-level asset scarcity, the report suggests increasing credit issuance and fiscal efforts, enhancing liquidity management by the central bank, and guiding non-bank funds back to banks to lower residents' yield expectations on non-bank assets [20][23]. - At the meso level, the report highlights the importance of fiscal and monetary growth rates, suggesting that credit and fiscal efforts should be strengthened while avoiding capital idling [23][24]. - The micro-level analysis focuses on the expectations of institutions regarding asset-liability expansion and actual expansion, noting that there is often a mismatch between liabilities and suitable assets [25][29]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Asset Scarcity Exploration - The report explores why the market has shifted its focus away from "asset scarcity," attributing this to a lack of significant asset-liability gaps in the real economy and the nature of interest rates as contractual [5][13]. - It discusses the macroeconomic factors influencing asset scarcity, including the expected decline in bond market yields and economic forecasts [16][18]. Section 2: Financial Institutions' Asset-Liability Management - The report provides a detailed analysis of financial institutions' liabilities, emphasizing the need for a balance between asset expansion and government debt supply [25][29]. - It projects that by 2026, the demand for government bonds will increase by 1.5 trillion yuan compared to 2025, indicating a growing need for asset allocation in the banking sector [25][29]. Section 3: Insurance Sector Analysis - The report estimates that the insurance sector will face a net increase in asset-liability mismatch of 1.28 trillion yuan by 2026, driven by the expiration of high-yield non-standard investments and continuous growth in premium income [30][29]. Section 4: Expected Returns and Market Dynamics - The report highlights the compression of asset-liability yield spreads due to rigid liabilities and flexible asset yields, which contributes to the practical aspect of asset scarcity for enterprises and theoretical scarcity for residents [35][29]. - It suggests that banks should lower the rigid costs of liabilities and guide non-bank entities to adjust their yield expectations [35][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [4][25]. Core Insights - The report highlights a slowdown in credit growth, with November's new social financing at 2.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 159.7 billion yuan, and new loans of 390 billion yuan, down 190 billion yuan year-on-year. The M1 money supply grew by 4.9%, while M2 increased by 8.0%, both showing a decline in growth rates compared to the previous month [1][4]. - The report anticipates that while credit growth may not accelerate significantly, the central bank's commitment to a "moderately loose monetary policy" and support for banks' net interest margins will likely lead to improved revenue for the banking sector in 2026 [4][2]. - Retail demand remains under pressure, with a net decrease in household credit of nearly 206 billion yuan in November, reflecting ongoing deleveraging among consumers. The report suggests that a recovery in retail demand will depend on improvements in household income [4][2]. Summary by Sections Credit and Financing - In November, new loans totaled 390 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 190 billion yuan, with total new loans from January to November at 15.4 trillion yuan, down 1.7 trillion yuan year-on-year. The growth rate of RMB loans remained stable at 6.3% [4][1]. - The report notes that corporate loans saw a slight increase, with 270 billion yuan in new loans, while the issuance of corporate bonds and off-balance-sheet financing provided support against government debt and credit drag [4][7]. Monetary Supply - The M1 money supply grew by 4.9% year-on-year, down from 7.1% in the previous year, while M2 increased by 8.0%, showing a slight decline in growth rates [4][8]. - The report indicates that the decrease in deposits reflects a shift in non-bank deposits, which is closely related to the activity in the equity market [4][8]. Future Outlook - The report expresses optimism for 2026, expecting that the focus on corporate lending will continue, and improvements in the Producer Price Index (PPI) may enhance corporate profitability, positively impacting bank earnings [4][2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the effectiveness of stimulus policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, which could lead to a more favorable environment for banks [4][2].

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|银行 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 跨境流动性跟踪 20251214 出口韧性累积蓄水池，联储鸽派降息助推资金回流 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [联系人： Table_Contacts] 李文洁 021-38003644 gfliwenjie@gf.com.cn 972918116公共联系人2025-12-14 21:42:46 1 / 24 [分析师： Table_Author]倪军 -10% -3% 4% 10% 17% 24% 12/24 02/25 05/25 07/25 09/25 12/25 银行 沪深300 | | SAC 执证号：S0260518020004 | | --- | --- | | | 021-38003646 | | | nijun@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 林虎 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260525040004 | | | SFC CE No. BWK411 | | | 021-38003643 | | | gflinhu@gf.com.cn | 请注意，倪军并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the total social financing (社融) in November increased by 2.49 trillion yuan, which is 159.7 billion yuan more than the same period last year, exceeding the consensus expectation of 2.02 trillion yuan [5][8] - The cumulative social financing for the first eleven months shows a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, maintaining the same growth rate as in October [5][8] - The report highlights a structural differentiation in financing, with trust loans, bond financing, and unendorsed bank acceptance bills showing significant year-on-year increases, while credit and government bonds experienced declines [5][9] Summary by Sections Social Financing Situation - In November, social financing increased by 2.49 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 159.7 billion yuan, surpassing expectations [5][8] - The cumulative social financing for the first eleven months shows an 8.5% year-on-year increase, consistent with October's growth rate [5][8] Credit Situation - The report notes that the credit supply is lower than in previous years, with November's new RMB loans amounting to 405.3 billion yuan, which is 116.3 billion yuan less than the same month last year [5][12] - The credit balance grew by 6.4% year-on-year, with a slight decline in growth rate compared to the previous month [12] Liquidity and Deposit Situation - The report indicates that M1 growth has slowed, while M2 and M1's differential has slightly expanded [19] - In November, RMB deposits increased by 1.4 trillion yuan, which is 760 billion yuan less than the same period last year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.7% [21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a shift in the investment logic for bank stocks from "pro-cyclical" to "weak-cyclical," indicating that during periods of economic stagnation, high dividend yields from bank stocks will remain attractive [24] - Two main investment lines are recommended: regional banks with strong certainty and large banks with high dividend yields [24]

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is expected to present new investment opportunities as market styles shift, with a high probability of a resurgence in bank stocks in Q4 2025, particularly favoring quality regional banks and high-dividend large banks [1][2][5] Market Style Shift - The current market exhibits a "technology strong, weight weak" seesaw effect, with the technology sector showing significant volatility and growth, while the banking sector has lagged behind, indicating a potential for recovery [8][10] - The banking sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio remains at historical lows of 0.6-0.8, contrasting with the high valuations of the technology sector [1][8] Policy Environment - The banking sector benefits from favorable policies, including a significant reduction in deposit rates, which lowers banks' funding costs and supports their interest margins [2][24] - As of September 30, 2025, the dividend yield for bank stocks reached 4.40%, significantly higher than the 2.79% yield of the CSI 300 index, indicating a strong income advantage for investors [2][24] Funding Environment - There is a structural shift in funding flows, with increased allocation of risk-averse and long-term funds towards bank stocks, enhancing their funding advantages [2][26] - The asset quality of banks is steadily improving, with non-performing loan ratios decreasing from 1.59% to 1.49% between Q1 2024 and Q2 2025, and the provision coverage ratio increasing from 204.54% to 211.97% [2][29] Performance Analysis - The banking sector has shown strong performance from the end of 2024 to mid-2025, with the Shenwan Banking Index rising by 13.10% in the first half of 2025, outperforming the broader market [16][19] - Quality regional banks like Jiangsu Bank have demonstrated significant profit growth, with a 8.84% increase in net profit year-on-year in Q3 2025, highlighting their operational resilience [5][59] Investment Strategy - The fourth quarter is expected to see a "performance differentiation and valuation rebalancing" pattern, with banks positioned as core investment targets due to their low valuations, improving fundamentals, and attractive dividend yields [74] - Large state-owned banks such as ICBC and CCB are recommended for conservative investors due to their stable high dividends and strong financial positions [63][74] - Regional banks like Chengdu Bank and Suzhou Bank are also highlighted for their growth potential and solid asset quality, benefiting from regional economic advantages [70][74]

合计超2000亿元，六家国有大行陆续开启2025年中期分红的派发工作。 12月12日晚间，交通银行（601328）发布2025年第四次临时股东会决议公告。公告显示，交通银行当天 召开的股东会审议通过了该行董事会提交的《2025年半年度利润分配方案》，交通银行预计于2025年12 月25日和2026年1月28日，分别向A股股东和H股股东派发2025年中期现金股息。 此前，工商银行（601398）和农业银行（601288）均于12月8日晚间发布2025年半年度A股分红派息实 施公告，宣布此次A股股东的现金红利发放日为2025年12月15日。H股方面，两家银行的派息日均为 2026年1月26日。 中国银行（601988）和建设银行（601939）的2025年半年度A股分红派息实施公告发布于12月4日晚 间，两家银行的现金红利发放日为2025年12月11日。H股方面，中国银行的派息日为2026年1月23日， 建设银行的派息日为2026年1月26日。 目前，邮储银行（601658）的2025年度中期利润分配方案也已出炉，在等待19日召开的股东大会审议。 此外，邮储银行已明确方案审议通过后，A股派息日为2026年1月12 ...

【环球网财经综合报道】据公开数据统计，截至12月13日，已有26家A股上市银行披露了2025年中期或季度分 红方案，这一数量超过了2024年同期的24家。预计分红总额突破2600亿元。 本次披露分红方案的银行涵盖6家国有大型银行、6家股份制银行及14家中小银行。其中，国有六大行作为"主力 军"，预计中期现金分红总额超过2000亿元。具体来看，工商银行以约504亿元的分红额度位居榜首，建设银 行、农业银行、中国银行、邮储银行和交通银行紧随其后。 在股份制银行中，兴业银行与中信银行的预计中期分红均超100亿元，光大银行与民生银行则超过50亿元。部分 中小银行的分红额度也较为显著，如上海银行、南京银行等。值得注意的是，兴业银行、宁波银行等多家银行 系首次推出中期分红方案。 业内分析指出，商业银行提高分红频率，是落实新"国九条"关于推动上市公司一年多次分红要求的具体举措。 其核心在于通过常态化、多元化的分红安排，打通上市公司盈利与投资者回报的传导链路，夯实市场健康发展 的根基。 提高分红频率本质上是一种深度的市值管理行为。相较于传统的年度分红，中期或季度分红能够打破回报的时 间滞后性，通过更高频次的现金回报强化投资者 ...

摘要 折价幅度靠前 AA 城投债（主体评级）中，"25 高密 01"估值价格偏离程度最大。净价跌幅靠前 50 只个券中，"24 国 开投 MTN002"估值价格偏离幅度最大。净价上涨幅度靠前 50 只个券中，"23 万科 MTN002"估值价格偏离幅度最大。 净价上涨幅度靠前 50 只二永债中，"25 农行二级资本债 01B(BC)"估值价格偏离程度最大。 风险提示 统计数据偏差或遗漏，高估值个券出现信用风险 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 固定收益动态(动态) 图表1：折价幅度靠前 AA 城投债（主体评级） | | 剩余期限 | 估值价格 | 估值净价 | 估值收益率 | 当日估值 | 票面利率 | 隐含 | 主体 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 债券名称 | (年) | 偏离(%) | (元) | 偏离(bp) | 收益(%) | (%) | 评级 | 评级 | 成交日期 | | 25 高密 01 | 4.27 | -0.28 | 105.07 | 7.22 | 3.93 | 5.25 | AA- | A ...

南都记者从中国人民银行东莞市分行获悉，近日，农业银行东莞望牛墩、洪梅、企石三家支行个人信用 报告自助查询机正式启用，标志着东莞个人信用报告自助查询服务延伸至"最后一公里"，实现32个镇街 （园区）全覆盖，全市54个查询网点持续织密便民服务网，让市民"在家门口查征信"从愿景变为现实。 据了解，此次全覆盖并非简单的数量增加，而是精准补位的民生工程。中国人民银行东莞市分行通过指 导农业银行东莞分行优化布局，将现有机器调整至此前未布设网点的3个镇街，精准解决了部分镇街居 民跨镇街查询个人信用报告的奔波之苦，大幅减少了群众办事的"脚底成本"。 1.线下自助查询：通过微信小程序"广东征信预约"查询附近网点，预约后携带本人身份证原件，前往网 点查询即可。 2.线下人工查询：通过微信小程序"i莞家"预约后前往东莞市民服务中心人工窗口（南城街道鸿福路199 号）或直接前往中国人民银行东莞市分行征信服务窗口（莞城街道可园南路1号金源中心2楼）办理。 3.线上查询：通过中国人民银行征信中心官网、手机银行App、云闪付App等线上渠道查询获取。 目前，东莞市54个查询网点均配备自助查询设备，支持身份证原件读取与人脸识别，市民无需填表 ...