早盘气氛转淡，午后大反转！ 今天早上，A50盘中突然直线杀跌，由涨转跌，恒指、恒生科技指数也是双双转跌。从结构上看，银行股继续 成了空头主力，银行板块早盘一度杀跌近2%，厦门银行跌近4%，青农商行、西安银行、渝农商行等多股跌逾 1%。银行股杀跌也带动了红利指数和大盘权重指数的下行。然而，临近午盘时，中字头突然发力。午后，中 国交建率先涨停，并带动权重指数走强。 然而，临近午盘时分，中字头突然发力。午后，中国交建直线封板，中铁装配飙升逾14%，中国中铁、中国建 筑等快速上扬。这些个股的突然表现，带动A50及A股指数大反攻。 红利指数下午的反弹，煤炭股的贡献度很大。午后，山西焦煤、潞安环能、山煤国际等集体涨停。与此同时， 市场上也流传着一份国家能源局综合司发布的《关于组织开展煤矿生产情况核查促进煤炭供应平稳有序的通 知》，这份通知的内容可能是刺激煤炭大反攻的主要原因。 那么，究竟发生了什么？从消息面上来看，仍有一些积极因素催化。比如欧洲理事会主席科斯塔、欧盟委员会 主席冯德莱恩将于7月24日来华，参加纪念建交50周年的中欧峰会。美国财长表示，会尽快与中国进行谈判 等。从盘面上看，市场的涨跌存在明显的结构性特征。 ...

Key Insights - The report emphasizes the shift towards high-quality, connotative urban development, with a focus on policies aimed at reducing "involution" in various sectors [2][5] - The launch of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project is expected to significantly boost cement demand in Tibet and surrounding areas, benefiting regional cement companies [11][12][15] - The report highlights the importance of technology innovation and self-discipline in the construction industry, as 33 construction companies advocate for a transition towards high-end, intelligent, and green development [5][11] Policy Dynamics - The Central Urban Work Conference marks a strategic shift in urban development from expansion to high-quality, connotative growth, emphasizing human-centered approaches and efficient resource use [3] - The adjustment of long-term assessment mechanisms for state-owned insurance companies aims to enhance the stability of insurance funds as long-term capital [4] - The promotion of Shanghai's free trade zone experiences is set to enhance the business environment and foster fair competition across regions [4] Industry Developments - The embodied intelligence sector is witnessing active product iterations, with a focus on specific application scenarios such as industrial logistics and special environments [7][8] - The Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project is projected to require over 40 million cubic meters of concrete, translating to approximately 16 million tons of cement, significantly impacting local supply chains [12][13] - The cement industry is undergoing a "de-involution" phase, with collaborative production strategies expected to stabilize supply and enhance pricing power [14] Investment Opportunities - The report recommends investing in state-owned enterprises responsible for the design and construction of hydropower projects, as well as regional cement and explosives companies that stand to benefit from increased demand [21][19] - The focus on high-quality development in urban planning and construction is expected to create long-term growth opportunities for companies that align with these strategic shifts [3][5]

Core Viewpoint - The Guoqi Gongying ETF (159719) has shown a positive performance with a recent increase of 0.19%, marking a three-day consecutive rise, and a weekly increase of 1.39% as of July 21, 2025 [1] Performance Summary - As of July 21, 2025, the Guoqi Gongying ETF has achieved a net value increase of 55.40% over the past three years, ranking 75 out of 1822 in the index stock fund category, placing it in the top 4.12% [1] - The ETF has recorded a maximum monthly return of 14.61% since its inception, with the longest consecutive monthly increase lasting 7 months and a maximum increase of 24.70% [1] - The average return for the months with increases is 4.17%, and the annual profit percentage stands at 100.00%, with a historical three-year holding profit probability of 100.00% [1] - Over the past three months, the ETF has outperformed its benchmark with an annualized return of 10.85% [1] Drawdown and Recovery - As of July 21, 2025, the maximum drawdown for the Guoqi Gongying ETF in the past six months is 8.26%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.29% [2] - The recovery period after the drawdown is 60 days, which is the fastest among comparable funds [2] Fee Structure - The management fee for the Guoqi Gongying ETF is 0.25%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, making it one of the lowest in its category [2] Index Tracking - The Guoqi Gongying ETF closely tracks the FTSE China State-Owned Enterprises Open Win Index, which reflects the performance of Chinese state-owned enterprises listed in mainland China and Hong Kong, focusing on globalization and sustainable development [2] - The index consists of 100 constituent stocks, including 80 A-share companies and 20 Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong [2] Top Holdings - The top holdings in the Guoqi Gongying ETF include: - China Petroleum (601857) with a weight of 15.94% and no change in price - China Petrochemical (600028) with a weight of 11.93% and an increase of 0.34% - China State Construction (601668) with a weight of 9.59% and an increase of 0.17% [4]

Group 1: Project Overview - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project has officially commenced, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, aiming to construct five cascade power stations [1] - The project is expected to generate an annual electricity output of about 300 billion kilowatt-hours, which is three times that of the Three Gorges Project [2] Group 2: Industry Impact - The project is anticipated to significantly boost demand for engineering machinery due to its large scale and the challenging geographical conditions, benefiting leading companies in the industry [2] - Major suppliers of hydropower equipment in China include Dongfang Electric, Shanghai Electric, and Harbin Electric, with Dongfang Electric achieving a 100% localization rate for 1 million kilowatt generator sets [2] - Central state-owned enterprises involved in hydropower engineering design and construction, such as China Power Construction Corporation and China Energy Engineering Corporation, are expected to be the first beneficiaries of the project [2] Group 3: Related Sectors - The high-altitude and complex geological conditions of the project will drive the demand for high-performance engineering machinery, favoring industry leaders [2][3] - The cement sector is likely to experience a new wave of growth due to the project, with companies like Tibet Tianlu and Huaxin Cement dominating the local market [3] - The commencement of the project is expected to significantly increase the demand for explosives in Tibet, benefiting companies with production capacity and business layout in the region, such as Gaozheng Minbao and Yipuli [3]

数据统计显示，中证华夏AH经济蓝筹股票指数近一个月上涨4.22%，近三个月上涨5.08%，年至今上涨 7.55%。 据了解，中证华夏AH经济蓝筹股票指数从内地市场证券以及符合港股通资格的香港证券中分行业选取 一定数量财务基本面良好的蓝筹证券作为指数样本，行业权重根据各行业对国民经济的贡献度进行分 配，行业内样本根据财务基本面综合得分加权，以综合反映国民经济产业结构变迁及发展趋势。该指数 以2004年12月31日为基日，以1000.0点为基点。 金融界7月21日消息，上证指数高开高走，中证华夏AH经济蓝筹股票指数 (AH经济蓝筹，931134)上涨 1.34%，报6608.46点，成交额4256.15亿元。 从指数持仓来看，中证华夏AH经济蓝筹股票指数十大权重分别为：腾讯控股（11.45%）、阿里巴巴-W （9.79%）、建设银行（2.49%）、牧原股份（2.32%）、中国移动（2.23%）、温氏股份（2.03%）、中 国建筑（1.91%）、中国中铁（1.39%）、美团-W（1.39%）、中国平安（1.11%）。 从中证华夏AH经济蓝筹股票指数持仓的市场板块来看，上海证券交易所占比39.78%、香港证券交易所 ...

Group 1 - The new urbanization concept index rose by 3.46%, ranking 10th among concept sectors, with 180 stocks increasing in value [1][2] - Notable gainers included Zhuhai Design, Dahongli, and Guanlong Energy, which reached a 20% limit up, while Chongqing Construction and Meili Ecology also hit the limit up [1] - The top gainers in the new urbanization sector were Zhonghua Rock Soil, Qinglong Pipeline, and Leizhi Group, with increases of 25.19%, 13.32%, and 11.71% respectively [1][2] Group 2 - The new urbanization sector saw a net inflow of 1.219 billion yuan from major funds, with 108 stocks receiving net inflows [2][3] - Zhonghua Rock Soil led the net inflow with 195 million yuan, followed by Qinglong Pipeline and China Railway with 182 million yuan and 122 million yuan respectively [2][3] - The net inflow ratio for *ST Zhengping, Zhonghua Rock Soil, and Sanhe Pipeline was 68.96%, 44.30%, and 31.02% respectively, indicating strong investor interest [3] Group 3 - The new urbanization sector's trading volume was characterized by significant turnover rates, with stocks like Qinglong Pipeline and Zhonghua Rock Soil showing turnover rates of 22.33% and 6.01% respectively [3][4] - Stocks such as Meili Ecology and Chongqing Construction also demonstrated strong performance with turnover rates of 9.64% and 3.13% respectively [4][5] - The overall market sentiment for the new urbanization sector appears positive, as indicated by the substantial trading activity and net inflows [2][3]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.72% on July 21, with 27 out of the 31 sectors experiencing gains, led by the construction materials and construction decoration sectors, which increased by 6.06% and 3.79% respectively [1] - The banking and comprehensive sectors saw declines of 0.77% and 0.34% respectively [1] - Overall, there was a net outflow of 6.945 billion yuan in the main funds across the two markets, with 11 sectors experiencing net inflows [1] Sector Performance - The construction decoration sector had a net inflow of 1.721 billion yuan, with 135 out of 157 stocks in this sector rising, including 15 hitting the daily limit [2] - The top three stocks in terms of net inflow were China Electric Power Construction (2.97 billion yuan), Zhonghua Rock and Soil (1.95 billion yuan), and China Energy Construction (1.90 billion yuan) [2] - The construction decoration sector's net outflow stocks included Tunnel Shares, China State Construction, and Hainan Development, with outflows of 49.17 million yuan, 35.71 million yuan, and 33.25 million yuan respectively [2][4] Fund Flow Analysis - The construction decoration sector's fund inflow list included stocks like China Electric Power Construction (10.04% increase), Zhonghua Rock and Soil (9.97% increase), and China Energy Construction (9.91% increase) [2] - The fund outflow list featured Tunnel Shares (5.97% increase), China State Construction (0.34% increase), and Hainan Development (-1.42% decrease) [4]

Group 1 - The establishment of China Yajiang Group and the commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project inject new growth momentum into the hydropower industry [1] - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project involves the construction of five cascade power stations with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, aiming for an annual power generation of about 300 billion kilowatt-hours [1] - The project is expected to enhance the long-term growth potential of the hydropower sector, with installed capacity projected between 60 to 70 million kilowatts [1] Group 2 - Central state-owned enterprises in the construction sector, particularly China Power Construction Corporation, are poised to benefit significantly from hydropower engineering projects [2] - China Power Construction Corporation is responsible for over 80% of river planning and more than 65% of the construction tasks for large and medium-sized hydropower stations in China, holding over 50% of the global market share in this area [2] - The demand for cement in Tibet is expected to rise, with a projected cement production of 13.1 million tons in 2024, primarily driven by six leading companies [2] Group 3 - The demand for explosives in Tibet is anticipated to increase due to the scale of the hydropower projects, with an estimated usage of approximately 139,300 tons of explosives for the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream project [3] - Major players in the explosives market in Tibet include Gaozheng Minexplosion, Yipuli, and Guangdong Hongda, which hold significant market shares [3]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - The construction index rose by 0.32% this week, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased by 1.07%, indicating that the construction sector underperformed the market by 0.75 percentage points. Professional engineering, architectural design, and infrastructure sectors showed stronger gains [1][33] - Infrastructure investment continued to support the economy, with energy-related and water conservancy investments maintaining strength, while transportation infrastructure showed signs of recovery. For the first half of 2025, real estate development investment, narrow infrastructure, broad infrastructure, and manufacturing grew by -11.2%, +4.6%, +8.9%, and +7.5% year-on-year, respectively [1][13] - Recent disclosures of second-quarter orders from central state-owned enterprises (SOEs) indicate a recovery trend, with China Railway's second-quarter orders showing a year-on-year growth of 20.08%. The overall order situation for central SOEs is optimistic, suggesting a rebound in physical workload [2][27] Summary by Sections Macro and Micro Verification of Infrastructure Recovery - Infrastructure investment in June continued to provide support, with energy and water conservancy investments remaining strong, while transportation infrastructure showed signs of recovery. The year-on-year growth rates for real estate development investment, narrow infrastructure, broad infrastructure, and manufacturing from January to June 2025 were -11.2%, +4.6%, +8.9%, and +7.5%, respectively [1][13][14] Recent Order Disclosures from Central SOEs - Central SOEs such as China Railway, China Energy Construction, China Chemical, and China Nuclear Engineering reported a recovery in second-quarter orders. For instance, China Railway's first-half orders showed a year-on-year growth of 2.8%, with a significant increase in the second quarter [2][27][28] Valuation Perspective - As of July 18, the construction sector's PE (TTM) and PB (LF) ratios were among the lowest across all primary industries, indicating significant room for valuation improvement. The construction sector's PE (TTM) was 11.12 times, with a historical percentile of 48.50%, compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300's PE of 13.39 times [3][30][32]

Group 1 - A doctoral thesis acknowledgment article has gained widespread attention online, highlighting the author's journey from humble beginnings to academic success [1][2] - The author worked at China Railway Engineering Equipment Group Co., Ltd. (referred to as "China Railway Equipment") from 2020 to 2025, focusing on intelligent tunneling system maintenance, data collection, and analysis [1][2] - The author demonstrated a strong work ethic, often working late nights and weekends alongside project team members to troubleshoot and optimize equipment performance [2] Group 2 - The project team at China Railway Equipment expressed admiration for the author's perseverance and dedication, noting the valuable contributions made to on-site challenges and research efforts [2] - The team emphasized the importance of practical experience combined with academic knowledge, which the author effectively applied to real-world problems [2] - The project team conveyed their best wishes for the author's future research endeavors, highlighting the potential impact of their experiences on future contributions to engineering and equipment manufacturing in China [2]