Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in fixed asset investment (FAI) in 2025, with infrastructure investment becoming a drag on the economy, prompting the economic work conference to emphasize "investment stabilization" [2][9] - Looking ahead to 2026, the report suggests that "active fiscal policies" will drive investment stabilization, with a focus on structural opportunities in the construction sector, including western infrastructure, overseas engineering, and new infrastructure [2][9] Group 1: Economic Overview - In 2025, FAI experienced a comprehensive decline, with infrastructure investment significantly dropping, particularly in the third quarter, where narrow infrastructure investment turned negative, declining by 8.7% in October [23][28] - The report notes that the actual situation of infrastructure investment may have deteriorated earlier than expected in 2024, despite apparent growth in infrastructure investment [30][34] Group 2: Structural Opportunities - The report emphasizes the importance of structural opportunities in the construction sector, particularly in western infrastructure projects, overseas engineering, and new infrastructure driven by technological advancements [45][46] - Specific recommendations include focusing on high-dividend leading companies in western regions, such as Sichuan Road and Bridge, and exploring opportunities in Xinjiang and Tibet [9][10] Group 3: Overseas Engineering - The report indicates that overseas engineering demand remains strong, driven by favorable client structures and business models of central enterprises, as well as private enterprises expanding into international markets [10][11] - Key recommendations for overseas engineering include companies like China National Materials, Jianghe Group, and Jinggong Steel Structure, which are expected to perform well in terms of earnings and dividends [10][11] Group 4: New Infrastructure - The report identifies several sectors within new infrastructure that are expected to see growth, including clean rooms, commercial aerospace, nuclear power, and low-altitude economy, driven by technological advancements and safety demands [10][11] - Specific companies recommended in these sectors include Yaxiang Integration for clean rooms and China Nuclear Engineering for nuclear power projects [10][11] Group 5: Traditional Demand - The report notes that traditional demand, particularly in real estate, remains under pressure, with new and second-hand housing demand still facing challenges [11] - It highlights the potential turning point for companies like Honglu Steel Structure, which may benefit from improved cyclical sentiment and operational efficiency [11] Group 6: Reform and Restructuring - The report discusses the need for deep reforms in the construction sector to enhance global competitiveness, focusing on identifying quality assets and new business opportunities for central enterprises [12][12] - It also emphasizes the importance of market value management and the potential for mergers and acquisitions in the construction industry [12][12]

Group 1 - General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of central enterprises in serving the Party and the country's work, promoting high-quality economic and social development, and contributing to the modernization of China [1][2] - Central enterprises are encouraged to focus on their main responsibilities and continuously optimize the layout of state-owned economy to enhance core functions and competitiveness [2][3] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) plans to implement the "14th Five-Year Plan" for central enterprises, aiming for a comprehensive optimization of the state-owned economy [2] Group 2 - Companies like China Southern Power Grid and China Huaneng Group are committed to fulfilling their economic, political, and social responsibilities while ensuring energy supply and supporting national energy security [2][3] - China Railway Engineering Corporation is focused on integrating into national strategies and promoting the transformation and upgrading of the construction industry [3] - The aviation and energy sectors, represented by China Aviation Industry Corporation and China Dongfang Electric Corporation, are prioritizing technological innovation and deep integration of technology and industry [4] Group 3 - The need for further reform and improvement of the modern enterprise system with Chinese characteristics is highlighted, aiming to build world-class enterprises [6][7] - China Energy Construction Group is focusing on reform to stimulate corporate vitality and enhance operational efficiency [6] - China Changan Automobile Group is committed to transforming into a smart low-carbon travel technology company, aiming for global competitiveness [7]

Core Viewpoint - The central economic work conference in December 2025 emphasizes the need to "promote investment stabilization" in 2026, leading to an optimistic outlook on fiscal policy for the upcoming year, particularly in infrastructure investment, which is expected to grow by 4.5% in 2026 [1][3][18]. Fiscal Policy Outlook - The fiscal measures for 2026 are anticipated to be more proactive, with a focus on stabilizing investment and stimulating private sector investment [3][4]. - The trend of "central government increasing leverage while local governments reduce leverage" is expected to continue, with the central government taking a more significant role in driving investment due to limited local government borrowing capacity [4][18]. Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment is projected to be a crucial growth stabilizer in 2026, with a forecasted growth rate of 4.5% [18]. - The central government is expected to play a vital role in supporting infrastructure investment, particularly in the western regions, where there is significant potential for growth [18][32]. Construction Sector Insights - The construction state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are expected to benefit from debt reduction initiatives, leading to improved asset quality and valuation recovery [2][22]. - The share of receivables in total assets for major construction SOEs has been rising, indicating a need for financial improvement and valuation recovery as local government funding stabilizes [22][26]. Regional Investment Opportunities - The western provinces, particularly Sichuan, are highlighted as having high potential for infrastructure investment due to favorable central government funding and strategic positioning [32][39]. - The central transfer payment to western provinces is projected to be 4 trillion yuan, accounting for 42.2% of total central transfer payments, indicating strong financial support for infrastructure projects [32][36]. Manufacturing Sector Outlook - Manufacturing investment is expected to stabilize with a growth rate of around 5% in 2026, driven by a recovery in semiconductor capital expenditures [14][46]. - The cleanroom engineering sector is anticipated to benefit significantly from the upturn in semiconductor investments [46]. International Market Growth - The overseas market is projected to become a second growth curve for construction companies, with expectations of continued growth in new contracts and revenue from international projects [2][18].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes optimism regarding fiscal policy in 2026, particularly in infrastructure investment as a means to stabilize economic growth amid a challenging real estate market [2][4][5]. Fiscal Policy Outlook - The 2026 fiscal policy is expected to be more proactive, with a focus on stabilizing investment and stimulating private sector activity [4][5]. - Central government investment is anticipated to increase, while local governments will continue to reduce leverage due to rising debt risks [5]. Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment is projected to grow at a rate of 4.5% in 2026, driven by ongoing support from central fiscal measures [2][15]. - The central government is expected to play a significant role in funding infrastructure projects, particularly in the western regions of China [27][28]. Regional Investment Opportunities - The western provinces, especially Sichuan, are highlighted as having high potential for infrastructure investment due to favorable central government support and strategic positioning [3][27][34]. - Sichuan's transportation investment is leading nationally, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.9% from 2020 to 2024, indicating strong growth prospects [32]. Manufacturing Sector Insights - Manufacturing investment is expected to stabilize with a growth rate of around 5% in 2026, benefiting from a potential recovery in semiconductor capital expenditures [3][12]. - The cleanroom engineering sector is identified as a key beneficiary of increased capital spending in high-end manufacturing [3]. International Engineering Opportunities - The overseas market is anticipated to become a second growth curve for construction companies, with significant growth in new contracts and revenue from foreign projects since 2025 [3][12]. Debt Management and Corporate Valuation - The ongoing debt management efforts are expected to improve the asset quality and valuation of state-owned construction enterprises, which have seen a decline in price-to-book ratios due to rising receivables [2][16]. - The average funding cost for major construction enterprises is around 4%, with some companies achieving lower rates through bond issuance [22][23]. Construction Sector Dynamics - The construction sector is experiencing a shift towards higher market concentration, with leading companies increasing their market share significantly in recent years [22][23]. - The article notes that the average market share of major construction enterprises has risen to 22.9% in revenue terms and 48.9% in order terms [22][23].

Group 1 - General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of central enterprises in serving the Party and the country's work, contributing to high-quality economic and social development, and fulfilling social responsibilities for the modernization of China [1] - Central enterprises are urged to focus on their main responsibilities and continuously optimize the layout of state-owned economy to enhance core functions and competitiveness [2] - China Southern Power Grid is committed to fulfilling economic, political, and social responsibilities while ensuring electricity supply for over 270 million people [2] - China Huaneng Group aims to maintain energy security and innovate in energy technology to better support the modernization process [2] - China Railway Engineering Group is focused on integrating into national strategies and promoting the transformation and upgrading of the construction industry [3] Group 2 - Xi Jinping called for strengthening key core technology research and promoting deep integration of technological and industrial innovation [4] - China Aviation Industry Corporation is focusing on independent innovation and advanced manufacturing to enhance capabilities and stabilize growth [4] - China Baowu Steel Group has achieved significant milestones in low-carbon products and aims to strengthen its steel business while integrating technology and industry [4] Group 3 - Xi Jinping highlighted the need for further reform to establish a modern enterprise system and improve corporate governance structures to build world-class enterprises [5] - China Energy Construction Group is committed to deepening reforms to enhance corporate vitality and improve management efficiency [6] - China CRRC Corporation is accelerating the application of new high-speed train technologies to enhance its global competitiveness [6] - China Changan Automobile is focused on transforming into a smart low-carbon mobility technology company while adhering to the Party's directives [6] Group 4 - The China Enterprise Confederation is working to optimize evaluation indicators and expand the range of evaluated enterprises to support central enterprises in building world-class status [7]

申万宏源研究研报指出，中国中铁报表优化，资源板块发力推动估值修复。公司新签订单边际改善，结 构优化，在手订单充裕，保障长期稳健增长。展望2026年，随着地方政府化债的有序推进，叠加中 央"两重"项目实施，2026年投资有望维稳，部分子板块则有望随国家战略而获得较高投资弹性。采用市 盈率估值法，选取港股中国铁建、中国中冶、中国交通建设、中国能源建设作为可比公司，可比公司 2025/2026年平均PE4.2X/4.0X，鉴于当前已进入2025年底，2025年财务数据不能充分体现公司价值，采 用2026年数据作为估值参考，假设中国中铁2026年PE 为4.0X，对应市值人民币999亿元，折算港币1102 亿元，当前市值港币945亿元，对应上涨空间16.6%，首次覆盖，给予"增持"评级。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that China Railway (00390) is rated as "Buy" with expectations of stable infrastructure investment in 2026, supported by local government debt reduction and central government projects [1][2] - The new signed orders show marginal improvement, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7% in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a robust order backlog that ensures long-term stable growth [1][3] - The resource sector continues to perform well, with mineral resource business revenue reaching 6.223 billion in the first half of 2025, reflecting an 8.04% year-on-year increase, enhancing profitability and cyclical resilience [1][4] Group 2 - The fixed asset investment growth has slowed down this year, but the outlook for 2026 suggests stabilization due to orderly local government debt reduction and the implementation of central government projects [2] - The company has a substantial order backlog of 75.4 billion, which is expected to support long-term growth, despite some pressure on traditional infrastructure due to industry impacts [3] - The company’s resource utilization business is primarily focused on mining operations, with leading reserves of copper, cobalt, and molybdenum among domestic peers, contributing to its profitability [4] Group 3 - The company has implemented a "Valuation Enhancement Plan" to improve quality and increase investor returns, with H-shares trading at a significant discount compared to A-shares [5] - The dividend distribution from 2021 to 2024 shows a consistent payout, with the H-share dividend yield at 5.1%, making it attractive for investors [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan initiates coverage on China Railway Group (00390) with a "Buy" rating, indicating that infrastructure investment is expected to remain stable in 2026 due to local government debt management and central government projects support [1] Group 1: Industry Investment Outlook - Fixed asset investment growth has slowed this year, with pressures in infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate; however, investment is expected to stabilize in 2026 due to orderly local government debt management and the implementation of central government projects [1] - Certain sub-sectors are anticipated to gain higher investment elasticity aligned with national strategies [1] Group 2: New Orders and Growth - The company has seen marginal improvement in new signed contracts, with cumulative new contracts from 2021 to 2025Q1-3 amounting to 27.3 trillion, 30.3 trillion, 31.0 trillion, 27.2 trillion, and 15.8 trillion respectively, reflecting year-on-year changes of +4.7%, +11.1%, +2.2%, -12.4%, and +3.7% [2] - The backlog of contracts stands at 75.4 trillion, ensuring long-term stable growth for the company [2] Group 3: Resource Sector Performance - The resource utilization business, primarily focused on mining operations, has shown strong performance, with revenue from mineral resources for 2021-2024 and 2025Q1-3 recorded at 5.957 billion, 7.504 billion, 8.367 billion, 8.157 billion, and 6.223 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +50.97%, +25.98%, +11.49%, -2.52%, and +8.04% [3] - The gross margin for the resource utilization segment in 2025Q1-3 was 59.45%, supporting the company's operating profit [3] Group 4: Valuation and Dividend Appeal - The company has implemented a "Valuation Enhancement Plan" to improve quality and increase investor returns; as of December 23, 2025, the A-share PE (TTM) and PB valuations were 5.4X and 0.42X, while H-share valuations were 3.6X and 0.30X, indicating a significant discount for H-shares compared to A-shares [4] - Cash dividends from 2021 to 2024 and 2025H1 were 4.85 billion, 5.00 billion, 5.20 billion, 4.40 billion, and 2.02 billion, representing 17.5%, 15.8%, 15.5%, 15.8%, and 17.1% of the respective net profits; the dividend yield for H-shares is 5.1% [4]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating for China Railway Group Limited (00390) [1][7] Core Insights - The report highlights that the company's valuation is expected to recover due to the optimization of financial statements and the performance of its resource segment [6][18] - It emphasizes the improvement in new contract signings and the robust backlog of orders, ensuring stable long-term growth [6][16] - The resource segment is noted for enhancing profitability and cyclicality resistance, with significant reserves of copper, cobalt, and molybdenum [6][25] - The report points out the attractive dividend yield of H-shares compared to A-shares, indicating a clear discount in valuation [6][33] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: 1,263.41 billion RMB - 2024: 1,160.31 billion RMB - 2025E: 1,156.73 billion RMB - 2026E: 1,164.20 billion RMB - 2027E: 1,179.18 billion RMB - The expected growth rates are: - 2023: +9.45% - 2024: -8.16% - 2025E: -0.31% - 2026E: +0.65% - 2027E: +1.29% [5][36] - Net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is forecasted as follows: - 2023: 33.48 billion RMB - 2024: 27.89 billion RMB - 2025E: 25.16 billion RMB - 2026E: 24.95 billion RMB - 2027E: 25.85 billion RMB [5][36] Order and Contract Insights - The company has signed new contracts amounting to 2.73 trillion RMB in 2021, 3.03 trillion RMB in 2022, 3.10 trillion RMB in 2023, 2.72 trillion RMB in 2024, and 1.58 trillion RMB in 2025 (Q1-Q3), with a year-on-year growth of +4.7%, +11.1%, +2.2%, -12.4%, and +3.7% respectively [6][16] - As of Q3 2025, the company has a backlog of contracts worth 7.54 trillion RMB, ensuring stable revenue for the upcoming years [6][16] Resource Segment Performance - The resource utilization segment's revenue from 2021 to 2025 (Q1-Q3) is as follows: - 2021: 5.96 billion RMB - 2022: 7.50 billion RMB - 2023: 8.37 billion RMB - 2024: 8.16 billion RMB - 2025 (Q1-Q3): 6.22 billion RMB - The segment's gross margin is reported at 59.45% for 2025 (Q1-Q3) [6][25] Valuation and Market Comparison - The report suggests a target market capitalization of 999 billion RMB for 2026, translating to 1,102 billion HKD, indicating a potential upside of 16.6% from the current market cap of 945 billion HKD [6][41] - The report compares the company's valuation with peers, noting that the average PE for comparable companies is 4.2X for 2025 and 4.0X for 2026 [6][41]

Group 1 - The construction of the new railway Haimen Port branch phase II has reached a significant milestone with the completion of the concrete pouring for pier 237, marking the project’s advancement into a new phase [1][3] - This project is a key initiative under Zhejiang Province's "thousand projects, trillion investment" program, which is crucial for regional development [3] - The railway will enhance the "public-rail-sea" multimodal transport system in the Taizhou Bay area and accelerate the growth of the port industry cluster [3] Group 2 - Haimen Port is positioned as a core node in Zhejiang's marine economy development demonstration zone, aiming to establish an energy resource storage and transportation base and a bulk commodity trading market [3] - The project manager highlighted challenges such as tidal influences and frequent strong winds, which limited effective construction time; however, resource investment and optimized construction organization have ensured progress [3] - The project is expected to facilitate deeper economic integration between the inland areas of central and western Zhejiang and the coastal economy, contributing to the integrated development of the Yangtze River Delta region [3]