从资金流向上来看，当日农商行板块主力资金净流入9922.62万元，游资资金净流出6846.34万元，散户资 金净流出3076.28万元。农商行板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入(元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601077 論农商行 | | 8820.26万 | 16.26% | -7767.31万 | -14.32% | -1052.94万 | -1.94% | | 601860 | 紫金银行 | 1762.72万 | 9.60% | -945.55万 | -5.15% | -817.18万 | -4.45% | | 601128 常熟银行 | | 1351.48万 | 6.16% | 48.55万 | 4 0.22% | -1400.03万 | -6.38% | | 002839 张家港行 | | 468.53万 | 2.83% | 332.46万 | 2.01% | -800.99万 | -4.84% | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the banking sector, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [24]. Core Insights - The introduction of new VAT regulations on bond interest income is expected to favor older bonds, as they remain exempt from VAT, thus enhancing their attractiveness and potentially driving up their prices [2][3]. - The banking sector's dividend yield is projected to be around 3.8% in 2025, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield of approximately 1.7%, highlighting the advantages of high-dividend assets in a declining interest rate environment [3][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of strategic allocation within the banking sector, particularly focusing on state-owned banks and select regional banks with strong asset quality and dividend policies [8]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The report notes a decline in major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.94% and the ChiNext Index down by 0.74% during the week of July 28 to August 3, 2025 [7]. - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market was 11,292.71 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 7.96% compared to the previous week [7]. Bond Market Impact - The new VAT regulations apply only to newly issued government bonds, local bonds, and financial bonds, while existing bonds continue to enjoy tax exemptions, making them more favorable for banks [2]. - The proportion of government and policy financial bonds held by major banks exceeds 70%, indicating a strong focus on these assets [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a diversified investment strategy focusing on high-dividend banks, particularly large state-owned banks and stable joint-stock banks like China Merchants Bank and CITIC Bank [8]. - It also highlights the potential for improved return on equity (ROE) in undervalued joint-stock banks, recommending attention to banks like Shanghai Pudong Development Bank [8]. Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key banks, with recommendations for several banks based on their projected performance [9]. - For instance, China Merchants Bank is expected to have an EPS of 5.86 yuan in 2025 with a PE ratio of 7.58, indicating a strong investment case [9].

| 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入(元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入(元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600908 | 无锡银行 | 1350.54万 | 16.10% | -1062.60万 | -12.67% | -287.94万 | -3.43% | | 601860 | 紫金银行 | 1115.48万 | 6.01% | 377.82万 | 2.04% | -1493.30万 | -8.04% | | 601128 | 常熟银行 | 789.98万 | 4.44% | -371.05万 | -2.08% | -418.92万 | -2.35% | | 002958 青农商行 | | 718.15万 | 4.32% | -87.24万 | -0.52% | -630.91万 | -3.80% | | 002807 | 江阴银行 | 472.97万 | 4.74% | -663.01万 | -6.64% | 190.03万 | 1.90% | | 601528 瑞丰银 ...

7月24日晚间，瑞丰银行也发布公告称，该行于近日发行了3亿元规模的科创债，成为了第三家参与科创 债发行的农商行。 进入今年7月，中小银行科技创新债券发行明显提速，长沙银行（601577）、宁波银行（002142）、瑞 丰银行（601528）等近10家城商行、农商行宣布发行科创债，规模合计超150亿元。 "为积极响应国家创新驱动发展战略，我行成功 簿记 发行全国首单区块链平台科技创新债券，高效引入 金融'活水'精准浇灌科创沃土。"7月29日，广西北部湾银行发行规模15亿元的科创债，获得市场投资机 构踊跃认购，全场认购倍数达3.40倍。 除了上述两家银行外，今年7月以来，还有长沙银行、嘉兴银行、宁波银行、成都农商行、桂林银行、 天津银行先后公布了科创债发行的最新进展，合计发行规模157亿元。 5月7日，中国人民银行、证监会联合发布《关于支持发行科技创新债券有关事宜的公告》，从丰富科技 创新债券产品体系和完善科技创新债券配套机制等方面，对支持科技创新债券发行提出一揽子措施。 记者注意到，目前，多数中小银行科创债票面利率集中在1.7%至1.9%之间，虽高于政策性银行和国有 大行发行利率，但相较于传统融资工具依旧较低。 ...

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002958 | 青农商行 | 3.58 | 1.70% | 83.03万 | 2.97亿 | | 601077 | 渝农商行 | 6.83 | 1.04% | 74.77万 | 5.12亿 | | 002839 | 张家港行 | 4.56 | 0.66% | 41.21万 | 1.88 亿 | | 600908 | 无锡银行 | 6.12 | 0.49% | 15.38万 | 9420.77万 | | 002807 | 江阴银行 | 4.73 | 0.42% | 25.60万 | 1.21亿 | | 601128 | 常熟银行 | 7.48 | 0.40% | 36.59万 | 2.75亿 | | 603323 | 苏农银行 | 5.44 | 0.37% | 31.07万 | 1.70亿 | | 601528 | 瑞丰银行 | 5.73 | 0.35% | 13.63万 | 7823.52万 | | 601825 | 沪农商行 | 9.15 | ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The profitability of China's banking FICC business remains considerable, with a pre-tax total asset return on equity of approximately 3.35% as of 2024A, primarily driven by interest income [1][12] - The FICC business has experienced a decline in yield over the past five years, with interest rates decreasing by about 50 basis points [2] - Future projections indicate a potential decline in asset return on equity to 1.61% in five years, a decrease of 174 basis points compared to 2024 levels [3] Current Profitability of China's Banking FICC Business - The current yield structure shows that interest income contributes 3.10%, capital gains 1.61%, and exchange gains 0.18% to the total asset return [12][13] - The financial market business ROA is 0.98%, significantly higher than the overall banking ROA of 0.75% [1][13] - Notable performers in the FICC business include banks like China Merchants Bank and Changshu Bank, with post-tax net returns exceeding 2.0% [13] Historical Profitability Changes - Over the past five years, the FICC business yield has consistently remained above 3%, with a notable decline in interest income during the interest rate reduction cycle [2][34] Future Profitability Outlook - Projections suggest that the financial market business ROA may drop to 0.44% in five years, reflecting a significant decrease in profitability [3] Characteristics of U.S. Banking FICC Business in Low-Interest Rate Periods - U.S. banks expanded bond holdings during the initial low-interest phase, but FICC income still declined, with a 0.5 percentage point drop in income share from 2008 to 2012 [4] - Strategies employed by JPMorgan included shortening bond durations and increasing allocations to credit and overseas bonds [4] Recommendations for China's Banking FICC Business - Increase the proportion of bond assets in OCI accounts, which currently stands at 28.4%, below the U.S. average of 42.5% during low-interest periods [5] - Focus on enhancing the allocation of credit and overseas bonds, as well as improving risk hedging practices to mitigate potential losses from rapid interest rate increases [5] Investment Suggestions - The report suggests adopting a bullish mindset towards bank stocks, emphasizing the importance of stock selection within the context of a long-term bullish trend driven by low interest rates and the revaluation of RMB assets [7]

证券之星消息，7月29日农商行板块较上一交易日下跌1.76%，沪农商行领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3609.71，上涨0.33%。深证成指报收于11289.41，上涨0.64%。农商行板块个股涨跌见下表： 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。 从资金流向上来看，当日农商行板块主力资金净流入1527.75万元，游资资金净流入1793.62万元，散户资 金净流出3321.37万元。农商行板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入(元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002958 青农商行 | | 4267.56万 | 17.30% | -1987.80万 | -8.06% | -2279.76万 | -9.24% | | 601860 | 紫金银行 | 1903.52万 | 8.00% | -965.71万 | -4.06% | -937.81 ...

Group 1 - The State Taxation Administration has intensified the crackdown on tax evasion by online anchors, with over 360 cases investigated since 2021, resulting in tax recovery exceeding 3 billion yuan [1] - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 789.3 billion yuan, with a net injection of 601.8 billion yuan, the second-highest this year, to address liquidity pressure and rising funding rates [1] Group 2 - Several rural commercial banks in Hunan have adjusted ATM service rules, prohibiting withdrawals using other bank cards from midnight to 6 AM, as a measure against fraud [2] - The People's Bank of China and the General Administration of Customs are seeking public opinions on optimizing the cross-border cash transport process for the renminbi [2] Group 3 - Hong Kong's banking sector is preparing for the implementation of the Stablecoin Ordinance, which requires stablecoin issuers to select licensed banks for asset custody, leading to increased competition among banks for custody services [3] - Ruifeng Bank successfully issued 300 million yuan in technology innovation bonds, with a low coupon rate of 1.77%, aimed at supporting technology innovation [4] Group 4 - Agricultural Bank of China has made personnel adjustments in its technology sector, appointing new executives to enhance its digital transformation efforts [5] - Many banks have emphasized growth and risk management in their mid-year meetings, focusing on increasing revenue, optimizing asset-liability structures, and enhancing digital transformation [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of technology innovation bonds (科创债) by small and medium-sized banks has significantly increased, with a total scale exceeding 230 billion yuan, reflecting a strong response to national policies aimed at supporting technological innovation and capital market integration [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since July, nine city commercial banks have actively participated in the issuance of technology innovation bonds, contributing to a total issuance scale of 168 billion yuan [1][2]. - As of July 28, 30 banks have issued or plan to issue technology innovation bonds, with a total scale reaching 235.8 billion yuan [3]. - The launch of the "technology board" in May has encouraged banks and wealth management companies to engage in the underwriting and investment of technology innovation bonds [1][3]. Group 2: Bank Strategies - Small and medium-sized banks are leveraging technology innovation bonds to access long-term, low-cost funding from capital markets, which can be directed towards technology-oriented enterprises [4][5]. - The issuance of technology innovation bonds allows banks to enhance their financial support capabilities for strategic emerging industries and technology enterprises [4][5]. - Compared to larger banks, small and medium-sized banks focus more on regional and customized services for early-stage financing needs of local technology enterprises [4][5]. Group 3: Investment Trends - Wealth management companies are increasingly investing in technology innovation bonds, viewing them as innovative investment targets that offer stable returns and policy benefits [8][9]. - The first batch of technology innovation bond ETFs has been launched, with banks like Bohai Bank and Tianjin Bank actively participating in these investments to channel more funds into the technology sector [9]. - The investment enthusiasm for technology innovation bonds is attributed to their favorable risk-return profile compared to other financial instruments, making them attractive to conservative investors [8][9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [12] Core Viewpoints - In 2023, cyclical bank stocks have generally lagged in performance and are at historically low valuations. The market is beginning to focus on which cyclical bank stocks currently offer attractive value for investment [2][6] - The report highlights three categories of banks worth attention: stable performance small and medium-sized rural commercial banks, city commercial banks with improving retail asset quality, and undervalued joint-stock banks [2][6] Summary by Sections Small and Medium-Sized Rural Commercial Banks - Changshu Bank has significantly lagged behind the sector in 2023, with a valuation of 0.77x 2025 PB, at a historical percentile of 24%. Despite concerns over retail credit demand, the bank's operational performance remains strong, with a revenue growth of 10.1% and a net profit growth of 13.6% in the first half of 2025 [7] - Ruifeng Bank, another leading rural commercial bank in Zhejiang, has a valuation of 0.56x 2025 PB, also under pressure from pessimistic economic expectations. However, it is expected to maintain double-digit credit growth under its strategic initiatives [8] City Commercial Banks - Ningbo Bank, with a valuation of 0.80x 2025 PB, has seen a significant decline in its stock price since 2023. The bank's retail loan quality is improving, and if economic expectations rise, there is potential for valuation recovery [9] - Changsha Bank, which focuses on consumer finance, has a low valuation of 0.56x 2025 PB and has underperformed compared to peers. A recovery in economic expectations could enhance its valuation [9] Joint-Stock Banks - Ping An Bank's valuation is at 0.52x 2025 PB, significantly lower than its peers. The bank has experienced a decline in performance due to strategic adjustments by its new management. If real estate policies improve and economic expectations rise, there is potential for revaluation [10]