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银行业十五五展望系列专题(上篇):回眸十四五,监管引导和主动求变下的银行经营理念重构
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-12-31 14:14
Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the banking industry, suggesting a return to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1x during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on stable profitability and high-quality development [3][4]. Core Insights - The banking sector is transitioning from a focus on scale to quality, with an emphasis on risk management and structural optimization. The "15th Five-Year Plan" includes the goal of building a strong financial nation, highlighting the importance of high-quality development [3][16]. - The report identifies key changes in the banking industry during the "14th Five-Year Plan," including a shift in credit structure, a focus on profitability, and the need for banks to balance risk and efficiency [2][4]. - Regulatory support is expected to stabilize net interest margins, which have reached record lows, with a projected recovery in the coming years [5][19]. Summary by Sections 1. From Quantity to Quality - The banking industry has evolved through three five-year plans, with a shift from rapid expansion to a focus on quality and risk management. The current phase emphasizes high-quality development and financial support for key sectors [2][10]. 2. Developments During the "14th Five-Year Plan" 2.1 ROE: Resilience of State-Owned Banks and Advantages of City Commercial Banks - The return on equity (ROE) for listed banks has remained around 10%, with city commercial banks showing a slight advantage due to higher leverage and better provisioning [19][20]. 2.2 Credit: Moving Away from Scale to Balance Capital and Efficiency - Banks are prioritizing structural transformation over sheer volume, focusing on supporting key sectors and optimizing credit distribution [4][12]. 2.3 Interest Margin: Recovery from Continuous Decline - The report anticipates a stabilization of net interest margins, which have been under pressure, with regulatory measures aimed at supporting banks [5][19]. 2.4 Risk: Provisioning to Support Stability - The banking sector is expected to manage risks more effectively, with a focus on maintaining adequate provisions to support profitability during challenging economic conditions [4][19]. 2.5 Financial Markets: An Alternative Revenue Stream - The report highlights the increasing importance of financial market activities as a means to smooth revenue amid declining interest income, with banks diversifying their investment strategies [4][19]. 3. Investment Analysis Opinion - The report suggests a dual strategy of focusing on leading banks and undervalued city commercial banks, anticipating a recovery in valuations for state-owned banks that have been lagging [3][4].
银行业“十五五”展望系列专题(上篇):回眸“十四五”,监管引导和主动求变下的银行经营理念重构
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-12-31 11:51
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the banking industry, indicating a "buy" rating for the sector during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period [1]. Core Insights - The banking sector is transitioning from a focus on quantity to quality, emphasizing risk management and efficiency in capital utilization. This shift is driven by the need to support the real economy while managing risks effectively [2][3]. - The report highlights that the return on equity (ROE) for listed banks has remained resilient, averaging around 10%, with city commercial banks leading at 11%-12% ROE, while state-owned banks maintain about 10% [2][3]. - Key changes observed during the "14th Five-Year Plan" include a shift away from scale-driven growth towards a balanced approach between capital and efficiency, a stabilization of net interest margins, and an increased focus on capital markets as a revenue source [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. From Quantity to Quality - The banking industry has evolved through three five-year plans, with a core transformation focusing on risk and efficiency rather than mere volume [2][3]. 2. High-Quality Development During the "14th Five-Year Plan" 2.1 ROE: Resilience of State-Owned and City Commercial Banks - Listed banks' ROE has slightly declined but remains around 10%, reflecting operational pressures while showcasing resilience [23]. 2.2 Credit: Balancing Capital and Efficiency - The focus has shifted from merely increasing credit volume to optimizing the structure of credit distribution, with significant changes in loan allocation towards technology and green sectors [16][19]. 2.3 Net Interest Margin: Stabilization Efforts - Regulatory support is expected to stabilize net interest margins, which have reached record lows, with proactive measures to prevent further declines [2][3]. 2.4 Risk Management: Provisioning for Stability - The banking sector has moved past peak risk levels, with provisions supporting ROE stability, while new economic challenges require ongoing risk management [2][3]. 2.5 Capital Markets: A New Revenue Stream - Capital market activities have become increasingly important, with banks leveraging these for revenue amidst pressure on interest income [2][3]. 3. Investment Analysis Opinion - The report suggests a focus on stable, high-quality development, with an expectation for bank valuations to return to 1x price-to-book (PB) ratios. It emphasizes a dual strategy of investing in leading banks and quality city commercial banks [3][4].
专访郭磊:通过落实带薪错峰休假等释放消费潜能
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-24 16:17
2025年,站在"十四五"收官与"十五五"规划谋篇的历史衔接点上,宏观经济环境交织着机遇与挑战。 2026年作为"十五五"开局之年,站在新旧年更替的此刻,也是理解"十五五"经济脉络的关键切口,制约 居民消费的核心矛盾是什么?如何看待促消费政策从"增量拉动"到"结构优化"的转变?"十五五"后,货 币政策还有哪些发力空间?后续黄金走势将如何演绎?围绕上述问题,广发证券首席经济学家郭磊近日 接受了北京商报记者的专访。 2026年提升消费率是主线索之一 北京商报:2025年,一系列消费补贴政策陆续出台,各项促消费政策也呈现出从"增量拉动"到"结构优 化"的转变。您如何评价这种政策逻辑转换的必要性与有效性?展望2026年,要真正实现消费的长期可 持续增长,政策工具箱需要在哪些关键机制上实现突破? 郭磊:中央经济工作会议指出"国内供强需弱矛盾突出",正是在这一判断基础上,政策进一步指出"必 须充分挖掘经济潜能",消费作为需求端的主要组成部分,在政策框架中的位置自然是十分重要的。 2026年作为"十五五"首年,提升消费率毫无疑问是主线索之一。 政策侧重点可能会有所变化,这两年我们的"以旧换新"集中于耐用消费品,这一部分需求 ...
践行金融为民 以专业深度与服务温度护航高质量发展
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-12-23 20:18
● 长城基金管理有限公司 岁末回首,2025年无疑是中国公募基金行业发展史上具有里程碑意义的一年。随着《推动公募基金高质 量发展行动方案》正式落地,行业步入以投资者回报为导向的高质量发展新征程。 恰逢行业变革之时,长城基金始终坚持以投资者为本,恪守持有人利益至上原则,既全力推动行动方案 在业务实践中落地生根,更紧扣"五篇大文章"战略指引,在服务国家发展大局中勇担使命,以专业深度 与服务温度谱写高质量发展的崭新篇章。 筑牢投研内核 夯实长期价值创造根基 投研一体化改革是长城基金近年的重点突破方向。通过构建高效协同的组织机制,公司凝聚起基金经理 与研究员的信任协作共识,实现了对数百个细分子行业的深度覆盖。"发现-分享-转化"的高效闭环,确 保了优质投资机会能迅速转化为投资成果,为投资业绩的可持续性提供了坚实保障。 投研能力是基金公司的核心竞争力,更是履行财富保值增值使命、服务实体经济的关键支撑。行动方案 明确要求公募机构强化"平台式、一体化、多策略"的投研体系建设。长城基金将投研建设置于战略核心 位置,在严守合规底线的基础上,通过系统化布局与机制创新,持续锻造专业内核。 为践行服务国家战略、赋能实体经济的使命,长 ...
中国票据市场2025年回顾与2026年展望
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-12-22 00:49
作者:江西财经大学九银票据研究院 肖小和、李紫薇 2025年是"十四五"规划的收官之年,也是票据市场在制度完善、基础设施健全、服务实体、科技赋能等 方面取得扎实进展的关键一年。随着供应链票据加快推广、综合服务平台正式上线、《票据法》修订启 动提速以及利率低位运行特征凸显,票据市场在规模稳增的同时,也展现出更强的服务效能与运行韧 性。展望2026年——"十五五"开局之年,票据市场将在服务中小微企业、畅通产业链供应链、深化价格 分层改革等方面持续发力,开启高质量发展新篇章。 一、中国票据市场2025年回顾 2025年,全球经济增长动能持续承压,主要发达经济体通胀虽进一步回落至接近目标水平,但需求疲 弱、债务高企与金融条件收紧制约复苏力度;国际地缘政治冲突延宕升级,叠加多国大选带来的政策不 确定性,显著抑制了全球贸易与跨境投资活力。2025年是中国"十四五"规划的收官之年,在以习近平同 志为核心的党中央坚强领导下,全党全国各族人民坚定信心、迎难而上、精准施策,持续加大宏观政策 逆周期调节力度,深化重点领域改革,扩大高水平对外开放,着力激发内需潜力,加快构建现代化产业 体系,我国经济延续回升向好态势,高质量发展取得新 ...
东方证券副总裁陈刚:从ESG到“五篇大文章” “破题”券商新时代角色定位
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-12-16 23:12
ESG本质上是在帮助企业积累隐性的价值,他强调,"今天在研发、在员工、在环保上的投入,短期来 看是成本,长期来看恰恰是构筑企业最坚固护城河的无形资产。" 最后,陈刚谈到了资本的新使命:构建可持续发展模式,引导行业行稳致远。而实现这一使命的核心路 径,正是深耕"五篇大文章"。他认为,对于券商而言,这是一套清晰的"价值创造三层架构"——以ESG 理念为顶层设计的价值罗盘,以"五篇大文章"为承上启下的实践航路。 作为资本市场的重要参与主体,券商需通过三大角色转变,成为驱动这一蓝图落地的行动引擎——从价 格发现者转向价值发现者、从资本中介转向价值整合者、从市场参与者转向生态构建者,这一系列转变 共同勾勒出券商在新时代的角色定位。 演讲尾声,陈刚向证券业同仁发出呼吁,ESG理念指明了方向,"五篇大文章"规划了路径,这是行业必 须承担的责任,更是历史赋予的机遇,期待各方携手发力,共推行业高质量发展。 (作者:孙永乐 编辑:巫燕玲) 在高质量发展的新时代,证券业如何扎实做好"五篇大文章"?东方证券副总裁陈刚指出,破题的关键点 之一,在于深刻理解ESG理念与"五篇大文章"的内在统一。 陈刚在主题演讲中深入分析了ESG理念与" ...
从ESG到五篇大文章:东方证券陈刚“破题”券商新时代角色定位
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-12-09 14:06
21世纪经济报道记者 孙永乐 广州报道 12月6日,在南方财经论坛2025年会证券业分论坛上,陈刚发表主题演讲《从ESG理念到五篇大文章实践:金融新范式与资本新 使命》,深入分析了ESG理念与"五篇大文章"的内在联系,以及两者如何共同定义金融新范式,并赋予资本新的使命。 在高质量发展的新时代,证券业如何扎实做好"五篇大文章"?东方证券副总裁陈刚一针见血地指出,破题的关键点之一,在于 深刻理解ESG理念与"五篇大文章"的内在统一。 他指出,ESG与"五篇大文章"是理念与实践的完美统一。中国金融新范式的核心是从短期价格投机转向长期价值投资,推动资 本使命由自身的保值增值升级为可持续的价值创造。券商作为资本的一环需完成三大角色转变,成为驱动资本新战略蓝图落地 的行动引擎。 站在这一新起点,ESG提供了一套全新的评判标准,重新定义企业价值,从单一的财务价值扩展到环境、社会和治理相统一的 综合价值。其中,E(环境)要求企业绿色低碳,S(社会)要求企业善待员工、客户和合作伙伴,G(治理)要求企业规范透 明、着眼长远。 从理念上看,ESG的重要价值不言而喻,但陈刚话锋一转,将演讲推向核心议题。他指出,仅有理念引领远远不够, ...
产融携手共绘五篇新章 北上协密集调研三家银行解码金融高质量发展
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-12-08 13:12
中证报中证网讯(王珞)近期,北京上市公司协会(以下简称"北上协")围绕"金融高质量发展与做好 五篇大文章"主题开展了三场走进上市公司调研活动。在该系列活动中,北上协组织会员单位走进北京 银行、农业银行以及邮储银行。 该系列活动由北京证监局指导,北上协主办,各上市公司承办,北京上市公司独立董事、董事会秘书、 证券事务代表、相关领域负责人、媒体记者以及协会秘书处专职工作人员等150余人参加活动。 该系列活动以"调研参观+座谈交流"的形式展开,各参与调研活动的上市公司代表与银行面对面交流, 深入探讨金融机构如何通过科技金融、绿色金融、普惠金融、养老金融、数字金融这"五篇大文章",精 准赋能实体经济。 北京银行:深耕科创的"首善"标准 9月15日,北上协开启了以"金融高质量发展与做好五篇大文章"为专题的第一场调研座谈活动——走进 北京银行。 11月26日,调研团走进农业银行,这也是系列调研的第二站。农业银行董事会秘书刘清介绍,农行"因 农而生,因农而兴,因农而强",服务乡村振兴是农行"两大定位"之一。目前,农行40%的贷款、44%的 存款分布在中国的县域地区。在服务乡村振兴的同时,农行高度重视城市业务的发展与创新,形 ...
北京上市公司协会举办上市公司走进邮储银行活动
Zhong Zheng Wang· 2025-12-03 10:51
邮储银行北京分行副行长徐卫杰等出席会议,热烈欢迎北京地区上市公司代表们来邮储银行进行座谈交 流。徐卫杰表示,邮储银行作为国有大型商业银行,一直与经济社会发展同频共振、同向而行。截至 2025年三季度末,邮储银行实现营收、利润双双正增长,净息差1.68%、不良率0.94%,均保持行业优 秀水平,在稳健经营中不断为实体经济注入金融活水。邮储银行北京分行作为国有大行服务首都经济的 重要落脚点,始终将服务"五篇大文章"作为核心战略抓手,把金融资源精准投向首都经济发展的关键领 域,形成多点开花的发展局面。邮储银行北京分行科技金融事业部、个人金融部分别就邮储银行科技金 融及企业金融服务、财富管理及私人银行业务情况做出了详细的分享。 活动也邀请了邮储银行客户翠微集团到场,翠微集团结合自身区域发展战略及支持科技企业发展的定 位,围绕如何推动银、企、协多方协同、实现高质量发展等方面进行了分享。 与会上市公司代表踊跃发言,分享各自对金融高质量发展的理解和"五篇大文章"的建议,大家各抒己 见,现场气氛热烈。有企业代表提出,科技金融需进一步优化风险评估模型,提升对"专精特新"企业的 融资支持效率;绿色金融应强化信息披露标准,推动碳账 ...
【董事周·业务发展篇】行业前瞻趋势洞察:商业银行价值重构与未来发展趋势解析
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-01 02:10
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese banking industry has transitioned from a phase of scale expansion to a critical period of transformation, focusing on value reconstruction due to narrowing net interest margins and increasing market competition [2][6]. Group 1: Driving Factors of Banking Transformation - The transformation of commercial banks from a scale-oriented to a value-oriented model is driven by three main factors: economic transition, policy guidance, and technological innovation [8]. - The shift in economic focus from high-speed growth to high-quality development necessitates banks to allocate resources towards key areas such as technology, green finance, inclusive finance, and elderly care [8]. - Policies are continuously guiding banks to return to their core functions and promote high-quality development through differentiated regulation and performance assessments [8]. Group 2: Key Areas of Focus - The "Five Major Articles" (Technology Finance, Inclusive Finance, Green Finance, Elderly Finance, Digital Finance) serve as the core framework for high-quality development in the financial sector, aligning with national strategies and addressing homogeneous competition [5][6]. - Digital finance acts as the foundational support for the other four areas, facilitating their development while also being driven by their business needs [6]. Group 3: Implementation Pathways for Value Reconstruction - The "Five Major Articles" provide clear pathways for banks to transform their business models, including encouraging loans combined with external investments in technology finance and supporting carbon credit financing in green finance [7]. - Policies and value reconstruction in banking resonate with each other, becoming significant drivers for transformation [7]. Group 4: Collaborative Development of Digital Financial Ecosystem - The evolution of the digital financial ecosystem is essential for both the implementation of the "Five Major Articles" and the transformation of the banking sector [9]. - Key characteristics of this ecosystem include coordinated policy efforts, deep technological application, and the construction of a digital ecosystem that empowers various industries [9][10]. Group 5: Positioning of Different Types of Banks - Large state-owned commercial banks are expected to lead strategic developments, focusing on national priorities such as technological self-reliance and rural revitalization [21]. - Joint-stock commercial banks should adopt differentiated strategies to avoid competition with state-owned banks, focusing on niche markets [21]. - Regional city commercial banks should leverage their local advantages to integrate into regional economic development, providing tailored financial solutions [21]. Group 6: Future Directions for Banking - The banking industry is moving towards a competition based on value rather than scale, with a focus on creating long-term value through service to the real economy [22]. - Banks that can accurately grasp policy directions, deeply integrate into industrial ecosystems, and continuously innovate service models will thrive in the value reconstruction process [22].