Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities (Hong Kong) indicates that 2025 marks the end of the current cycle of declining bank performance, with expectations for improvement in the industry fundamentals next year, maintaining an "outperform" rating for the sector [1] Group 1: Overall Review - In the first half of 2025, listed banks reported total operating income of 2.92 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.0%, and a total net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.10 trillion yuan, up 0.8% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Net Interest Margin - The overall net interest margin for listed banks decreased by 14 basis points year-on-year to 1.41%, a decline similar to the 13 basis points drop in the first quarter, but narrower than the 17 basis points decline in 2024 [2] - The second quarter saw a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4 basis points in net interest margin [2] Group 3: Asset Quality - There is a slight increase in asset quality pressure, indicated by rising overdue rates and an increase in the non-performing loan generation rate, primarily in the retail sector [3] - The provision coverage ratio for non-performing loans has increased to 106%, although it remains at a historically low level [3] Group 4: Asset Scale - By the end of the second quarter of 2025, the total assets of listed banks grew by 9.6% year-on-year, with a notable recovery in growth rates for the six major banks and city commercial banks [4] Group 5: Non-Interest Income - After three years of adjustment, net fee income has rebounded in the first half of this year [5] - Other non-interest income saw a significant decline in growth in the first quarter due to rising market interest rates, but rebounded in the second quarter as market rates fell again [5] Group 6: Industry Outlook - The current banking fundamentals are under pressure, with net interest margin being the largest source of pressure and a slight increase in asset quality pressure [6] - With policy support for net interest margins and the impact of the May deposit rate cuts, the decline in net interest margin is expected to narrow next year, with a potential turning point for retail loan non-performing generation in 2026 [6]

Group 1 - The city commercial bank sector saw a slight increase of 0.14% on September 4, with Qingdao Bank leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3765.88, down 1.25%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12118.7, down 2.83% [1] - Key stocks in the city commercial bank sector showed varied performance, with Qingdao Bank closing at 5.26, up 0.96%, and Xiamen Bank at 6.56, up 0.77% [1] Group 2 - The city commercial bank sector experienced a net inflow of 1.04 billion yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 1.27 billion yuan [2] - The sector saw a net outflow of 2.31 billion yuan from speculative funds [2] - Individual stock performance varied, with Beijing Bank showing a net inflow of 1.52 million yuan from institutional investors, while Xiamen Bank had a net outflow of 730.79 million yuan [3]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the banking industry, with overall revenue and net profit growth rates turning positive in the first half of 2025, at 1.0% and 0.8% respectively, showing improvements from the previous quarter [4]. Core Insights - The banking sector's net interest margin for the first half of 2025 is reported at 1.42%, a decrease of 10 basis points compared to the previous year, but the decline is narrowing due to improved cost management on the liability side [5]. - Non-interest income, particularly from fees and commissions, has increased by 3.1% year-on-year, driven by a recovery in wealth management and a more active market environment [5]. - The asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.23% and a provision coverage ratio of 239%, indicating a solid credit environment [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance Overview - The overall revenue and net profit growth for listed banks in the first half of 2025 were 1.0% and 0.8%, respectively, with both metrics showing improvement from the first quarter [4][22]. - The total assets of listed banks reached 321.3 trillion yuan, growing by 6.35% year-to-date, with loans and advances totaling 179.4 trillion yuan, accounting for 55.84% of total assets [21][24]. Income Sources - Net interest income decreased by 1.3% year-on-year, but the decline rate has slowed, reflecting better management of funding costs [5]. - Fee and commission income grew by 3.1% year-on-year, benefiting from a recovering market and the gradual impact of regulatory changes [5]. - Other non-interest income saw a significant increase of 10.7%, primarily due to favorable market conditions in the bond market [5]. Asset Quality and Management - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 1.23%, with a provision coverage ratio of 239%, indicating a robust asset quality [5]. - The credit cost for the first half of 2025 was 0.81%, a decrease of 5 basis points year-on-year, suggesting manageable credit risks [5]. Loan Growth and Composition - Loan growth was primarily driven by corporate lending, with significant contributions from infrastructure and manufacturing sectors [20]. - Personal loan growth was weaker, with a year-on-year increase of only 3.6%, reflecting a cautious approach to consumer lending amid rising risks [20]. Investment and Market Conditions - The investment asset proportion decreased to 34% as banks adjusted their strategies in response to market volatility [20]. - The overall yield on bonds fluctuated significantly, prompting banks to engage in tactical trading to enhance returns [20].

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcements of interim dividend plans by A-share listed banks highlight a trend towards increased shareholder returns, with a total proposed dividend amount exceeding 200 billion yuan from major state-owned banks and several joint-stock banks [1][4]. Group 1: State-Owned Banks - Six major state-owned banks have announced their interim dividend plans for 2025, with a total proposed dividend amount exceeding 200 billion yuan [1]. - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China leads with a proposed dividend of 1.414 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 503.96 billion yuan [1]. - Other state-owned banks, including Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Bank of Communications, and Postal Savings Bank, have proposed dividends of 418.23 billion yuan, 352.50 billion yuan, 486.05 billion yuan, 138.11 billion yuan, and 147.72 billion yuan respectively [1]. Group 2: Joint-Stock Banks - Several joint-stock banks, including China Merchants Bank, CITIC Bank, Minsheng Bank, Ping An Bank, and Huaxia Bank, have confirmed their interim dividend plans for 2025 [1][2]. - China Merchants Bank announced its first interim profit distribution plan since its listing, with a cash dividend amounting to 35% of its net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders for the first half of 2025 [1][2]. - CITIC Bank plans to increase its interim dividend payout ratio to 30.7%, enhancing investor return expectations [2]. Group 3: New Participants in Interim Dividends - New entrants to the interim dividend group include Ningbo Bank, Changsha Bank, Su Nong Bank, and Jiangyin Bank, indicating a growing trend among listed banks to adopt interim dividends [2][4]. - Su Nong Bank announced its first interim dividend plan, proposing a cash dividend of 0.9 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 1.82 billion yuan [2][3]. Group 4: Overall Market Trends - A total of 23 A-share listed banks implemented interim dividends in 2024, distributing over 250 billion yuan, with the number of banks participating expected to increase in 2025 [4]. - The push for interim dividends is seen as a response to regulatory guidance aimed at enhancing shareholder returns and stabilizing market expectations [5].

Core Insights - The competitive landscape of retail banking in A-shares is becoming clearer as the 2025 mid-year reports are disclosed, revealing a distinct tiered structure in retail AUM (Assets Under Management) [1][2] - The first tier consists of major state-owned banks and China Merchants Bank, all exceeding 16 trillion yuan in retail AUM, while the second tier includes joint-stock banks and some leading city commercial banks [1][2] - The retail business performance is mixed, with many banks facing pressure on retail revenue and net profit, highlighting a structural issue of profit growth without revenue increase [1][6] Tiered Structure of Retail AUM - The first tier banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) and Agricultural Bank of China (ABC), lead with AUM exceeding 16 trillion yuan, with ICBC at over 24 trillion yuan and ABC at 23.68 trillion yuan [2][3] - China Construction Bank (CCB) and Postal Savings Bank of China also show strong performance, with CCB managing over 22 trillion yuan and Postal Savings Bank at 17.67 trillion yuan [2] - China Merchants Bank, known as the "king of retail," has a retail AUM of 16.03 trillion yuan, reflecting a 7.39% increase from the previous year [2] Second Tier Performance - The second tier banks have retail AUM ranging from 1 trillion to 6 trillion yuan, with notable growth from banks like Bank of Communications at 5.79 trillion yuan and Industrial Bank at 5.52 trillion yuan [3] - Joint-stock banks are active in this tier, with CITIC Bank and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank also showing significant growth in retail AUM [3] Third Tier Characteristics - The third tier banks have retail AUM mostly below 1 trillion yuan, with Nanjing Bank and Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank showing notable growth rates of 14.25% and 3.99% respectively [4] - Regional banks are leveraging local advantages to deepen market penetration, but face challenges in competing with larger banks [5] Retail Profitability Challenges - The retail banking sector is undergoing significant adjustments, with a shift in customer demand towards diversified financial solutions, which raises the bar for product innovation and service customization [6] - Leading banks like ICBC and China Merchants Bank are showing resilience, with ICBC's net profit rising by 46.05% despite a slight revenue decline [6][7] - However, some banks, including ABC and Ping An Bank, are experiencing declines in both revenue and net profit, indicating a challenging environment [7] Asset Quality Concerns - The retail banking sector is facing challenges in asset quality, particularly in personal loans, with rising non-performing loan (NPL) ratios reported by several banks [9][10] - For instance, China Merchants Bank's retail loan NPL ratio increased to 1.04%, while Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank's rose to 2.04% [9] - Some banks, like Ping An Bank and Industrial Bank, have managed to improve their asset quality through refined risk management practices [10] Strategic Recommendations - Analysts suggest that banks, especially smaller ones, should focus on enhancing their support for small and micro enterprises and optimizing financial resource allocation to uncover new growth points [8] - There is a call for banks to improve their digital capabilities and customer experience to better compete with larger institutions [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Changsha Bank is "Recommended" [1][3] Core Views - The report highlights that Changsha Bank's profitability is on the rise, with a year-on-year increase in net profit of 5.1% and operating income growth of 1.6% for the first half of 2025 [4][7] - The bank's total assets grew by 13.7% year-on-year, with loans and deposits increasing by 13.0% and 11.2% respectively [4][7] - The report emphasizes the bank's strong retail potential, supported by the robust consumer activity in the Hunan region, and ongoing improvements in its retail business model [7][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Changsha Bank achieved operating income of 132 billion yuan, up 1.6% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 43.3 billion yuan, up 5.1% [4][7] - The bank's net interest income decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, while non-interest income increased by 11.8% [7][9] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio improved slightly to 1.17%, with a year-on-year increase in the annualized loan generation rate to 1.37% [8][9] - The bank's provision coverage ratio stood at 310%, indicating a stable risk mitigation capacity [8][9] Growth Projections - The report projects that Changsha Bank's earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 will be 2.05, 2.20, and 2.38 yuan respectively, with corresponding profit growth rates of 5.3%, 7.1%, and 8.5% [7][10] - The bank's price-to-book (P/B) ratios for the same period are expected to be 0.54x, 0.49x, and 0.45x [7][10]

Investment Rating - The industry maintains an "Outperform" rating, indicating expected performance above the market benchmark [2][93]. Core Views - The report suggests that 2025 may mark the end of the current earnings downturn cycle for the banking sector, with expectations of improved fundamentals in the following year [2][90]. - The overall revenue and net profit growth for listed banks in the first half of 2025 showed a slight increase, with total operating income reaching 2.92 trillion yuan, up 1.0% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 1.10 trillion yuan, up 0.8% year-on-year [2][12]. - The net interest margin (NIM) for listed banks decreased by 14 basis points to 1.41% year-on-year, with expectations of a slight narrowing in the decline due to policy support and a reduction in deposit rates [2][31]. - Asset quality pressures have slightly increased, primarily in the retail sector, with rising overdue rates and an increase in non-performing loan generation rates [2][42]. Summary by Sections Overall Review - The banking sector's revenue and profit growth have rebounded, driven by improvements in non-interest income [2][12]. - The total assets of listed banks grew by 9.6% year-on-year, with significant contributions from major banks and city commercial banks [2][75]. Non-Interest Income - Fee income has stabilized after a period of decline, while other non-interest income has seen renewed growth due to favorable market conditions [2][81][85]. Industry Outlook - The report anticipates that 2025 will be a year of bottoming out for the banking sector, with a potential turning point for revenue and profit growth expected in 2026 [2][90]. - Key drivers for the sector include a slight narrowing of NIM declines, positive growth in fee income, and stable non-interest income trends [2][89]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality cyclical stocks such as Ningbo Bank, Changshu Bank, Changsha Bank, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, and China Merchants Bank [2][93].

| 代码 | 名称 | | 涨幅%↑ | 总市值 | 年初至今涨幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002142 | 宁波银行 | 1 | -2.10 | 1873亿 | 20.59 | | 002958 | 青农商行 | | -2.07 | 184亿 | 12.36 | | 002936 | 郑州银行 | 1 | -1.91 | 186亿 | -1.49 | | 601838 | 成都银行 | 兼 | -1.83 | 771亿 | 11.40 | | 601825 | 沪农商行 | 1 | -1.76 | 861亿 | 6.93 | | 600926 | 杭州银行 | 1 | -1.75 | 1138亿 | 9.23 | | 600928 | 西安银行 | 海 | -1.66 | 184亿 | 17.45 | | 601077 | 渝农商行 | 1 | -1.65 | 743亿 | 13.30 | | 601577 | 长沙银行 | | -1.65 | 384亿 | 12.08 | | 601998 | 中信銀行 | | -1.63 | 4374亿 | ...

以上理财产品信息仅供参考，具体应以《产品说明书》等销售文件为准。本文不构成任何投资建议，投 资者据此操作，风险自担。 （长沙银行） 9月2日，据长沙银行披露，该行发行的金芙蓉2025年长福净值29期封闭式净值型理财产品认购期为2025 年9月2日—2025年9月8日，发行规模下限为2000万元，上限为10亿元，认购起点金额为1万元。产品类 型固定收益类，内部风险评级中等风险，产品期限449天，业绩比较基准为2.15%-2.95%。 注：业绩比较基准不是预期收益率，不代表产品的未来表现和实际收益，不构成对产品收益的承诺。 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperforming the Market" [4] Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the evolution of local government financing behavior and regulatory adjustments over the past two decades have significantly influenced the financial sector. It predicts that the proportion of bank credit in local government debt will increase from 38% to 42% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with an annual growth rate fluctuating between 10% and 17% [1][18][19] - City commercial banks (CCBs) have played a crucial role in supporting local government debt resolution, with their credit growth in government-related loans outpacing that of other banks. The report identifies a complementary relationship between CCBs' government-related loan growth and the issuance of urban investment bonds [1][2] - The report forecasts that CCBs will take on greater responsibilities in the future, driven by increasing state ownership, leadership changes reflecting regulatory attributes, and strong local government relationships. This will enhance local market competitiveness and provide growth opportunities for CCBs [2][18] Summary by Sections 1. Changes in Local Government Financing Structure - The report outlines the historical evolution of local government debt and financing needs, highlighting the significant role of regulatory and policy adjustments in shaping the financial sector [14][18] - It provides a detailed analysis of local government debt structure changes from 2008 to 2025, noting the shift from bank loans to urban investment bonds and shadow banking during various phases [19][24] 2. CCBs' Role in Debt Resolution - CCBs have shown proactive engagement in local government debt resolution, with their government-related loan growth significantly higher than that of other banks. The report indicates that CCBs have effectively supplied funds during periods of heightened repayment pressure [1][2][19] 3. Future Prospects for CCBs - The report identifies several CCBs, including Chongqing Bank, Xiamen Bank, and Shanghai Bank, as potential winners during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, expecting them to achieve faster expansion and higher returns for investors [2][3] - It predicts that the overall valuation of CCBs will have substantial room for improvement, estimating a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.7x by the end of 2026 and 1.22x by the end of 2030 [2][3] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on specific CCBs such as Chongqing Bank, Xiamen Bank, Shanghai Bank, Qilu Bank, and Chengdu Bank for potential investment opportunities [3][6]